MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Nephthys]

Instead of suspecting that Thanos is among the bozo voters (which I do think is likely), I'd like to point out that Thanos is almost surely NOT among the ND voters.

Why?

Thanos wants to collect stones. If bozo had the stone as claimed, it was going to be lost among 7 players. If Thanos was voting for ND, he could get whatever ND had.

I think this makes sense

[brainbomb]

xorxes, do you think you assumed kalels alignment there just a bit?

that was 2 pretty serious fish attempts

[brainbomb]

imagine theres a maf chat open.
newest player would definetely volunteer to try to fish a new sub for vital info.

sulit is not new to playing mafia tho.

[Temasek22]

And finally

From the Maf QT
ND: By the grace of Donald, I now pronounce you... raptor Jesus

Temasek: I was hoping this ceremony would be like... better?

Rivera: *sips caprini's*

Neph: I dont want to marry a dinosaur.. can we do something else?

Rivera: *puts on capri pants and rides a horse down the beach screaming the british are coming*

ND: The BRITISH? Those socialist scum? The UK is one step away from Pol Pot.

Temasek: I think I wanna concede. this maf team sucks.

Neph: Yes. but at least were not those evil communists

How is it even possible that 3 of us from the M48 scum team are back again, what are the odds?! Also, more unrelated note, but what’s a Capri pants?!

[Temasek22]

Instead of suspecting that Thanos is among the bozo voters (which I do think is likely), I'd like to point out that Thanos is almost surely NOT among the ND voters.

Why?

Thanos wants to collect stones. If bozo had the stone as claimed, it was going to be lost among 7 players. If Thanos was voting for ND, he could get whatever ND had.

This makes a lot of sense

[Temasek22]

Couple questions:

Is there a way to like quickly navigate back to the thread without have to go to forums then forum games etc.?

How do you ISO?

Any way to make it so all the posts are on one page, or can it only be in pages?

Peterlund mafia bot, pure magic imo

[Temasek22]

Is Thanos invincible to the Item Collector's thievery?

Good question.

##call GM

[Temasek22]

I think I’m not the only one to find Kalel’s night activity extremely suspicious, it’s almost as if he has been coached imho.

[rdrivera2005]

imagine theres a maf chat open.
newest player would definetely volunteer to try to fish a new sub for vital info.

sulit is not new to playing mafia tho.

Have you ever seen something like this really happens?

[brainbomb]

A fair and balanced review of what killed bozo the irritating clown.
bozo spends most of his energy as town looking for highly idiotic associative reads that are never accurate. When he isnt busy doing that he tends to focus on strange ezio-like strategies that involve horribly unpopular actions. Whether its massclaims, or lists that lead to nowhere, bozo is easy to misread because the bizarre time wasting excercises he forces us to be part of generally just lead people to finding him scummy and full of fluff

that being said my initial ping on him was his entry to the game, vote on vapor, his bizarre insistence that a townie never gets voted early so I was clearly scum with vapor. And this line of thinking seemingly didnt stop.
Xorxes corrected bozo that if I were in fact a busser my removing my vote would be alot less likely.
To me it felt like bozo never was himself. he was never actually making his list fir any actual reason other than he had been called out for having no mechanical strategy this game.

Here are his voters working backward from me.

Vote - EspressoPatronum
EspressoPatronum
Day-1 00:03
page 56 / orig ##vote bozo

I trust the ppl on the bozo wagon more than ND's

Espresso joined bozo last when the wagon was not self pres anymore for espresso. Looking at previous mentions of bozo by espresso...

EspressoPatronum
EspressoPatronum
Day-1 40:40
page 11 / orig I got half way through. My impressions thus far:

Liking bozo a lot. I'll also echo darg's post -- I'm interested to see if bozo has any ideas on the mechanics of the game. We might have stood a better chance in the apocalypse/animal game

Espresso began the game loving that bozo voted vapor, and that bozo felt myself xorx or maniac were bussing.

-1 for Espresso

Espresso posts reads on P23
Among people missing from his reads: Maniac

Townlean
Bozo - I liked his opening but he hasn't said a lot more since then. Bozo isn't usually very active in the early days, so I'm not expecting a ton of posts from him until later. His activity in the mid/lategame should be telling.

I find this to be bad because youre saying that he will be great mid game. hes your top townlean. but you end up lynching him.

Page 32

Regarding bozo, I think you're confusing his prodding style with his mid/lategame play and/or his play in mini mafia. Most of bozo's big games start off as unremarkable D1s / D2s, but then he comes in clutch later.

In m47, for instance, he started with the massclaim idea and didn't do much besides that. By the endgame, he singlehandedly towncased me for everyone else + helped form a town block that almost helped us come back.

closing in on End of Day

EspressoPatronum
Day-1 00:13
page 55 / orig Not feeling great about the bozo wagon. We lynched him for low activity in m46 and he ended up being town.

What's the case against him?

Espresso is still against bozo being lynched. He reaches a (6) wagon. uses gamblers fallacy as a defense here.

EspressoPatronum
Day-1 00:04
page 55 / orig @brain why bozo over ND?

EspressoPatronum
Day-1 00:03
page 56 / orig ##vote bozo

I trust the ppl on the bozo wagon more than ND's

Now Espresso has sunk his teeth into Bozos juicy neck. the jugular is spraying blood all over him.


But lets look at one other detail.

The first time espresso mentions ND its a null read

ND - the persona is pretty weird. It'll be easier to sort him once he starts playing normally.

EspressoPatronum
Day-1 00:08
page 55 / orig
↑Foxcastle: "##VOTE ND

I don't like the Bozo lynch. I think this is generally in line with town Bozo."

ND normally plays personas. I attacked him pretty hard in m1007 for it, but it turns out he's town.

I'd rather see if he keeps it up in D2. That's when he dropped the act in m1007

Facts
Espresso never once quotes ND
never reacts or quotes anyones votes on ND until foxcastle
Says ND plays personas as town

problem is early game ND was playing the persona and espresso had him as null.
why wasnt he town early game?
if he only plays personas as town.. shouldnt he have simply always been town to espresso?


I think this solidifies Espresso as scum

[brainbomb]

NEXT UP
Kalel the new guy. Kalel the magnificent. Kalel the reckless. Kalel the-.. what the hell he just lynch a guy for what??

KalelChase
Day-1 00:22
page 54 / orig ##VOTE Bozo

RE: A lot of posts collecting data from others, but the goal seems to be just to stir the pot. I have to admit most of this is based more on who isn't and who is voting for them/others

Im struggling to see what in this post identifies bozo as scum. or why this troubles him.

kalel topped out day 1 at 15 posts. 2nd or 3rd lowest poster so far.

After I voted bozo early game, Kalel had this to say:

KalelChase
Day-1 31:15
page 18 / orig
↑brainbomb: "Bozo seems like scum because when he pushes his reads normally he does naturally begin to look for associations between ..."

A horse walks into a bar. The bartender asks the horse if it's an alcoholic considering all the bars he frequents, to which the horse replies "I don't think I am." POOF! The horse disappears.

This is the point in time when all the philosophy students in the audience begin to giggle, as they are familiar with the philosophical proposition of Cogito ergo sum, or I think, therefore, I am.

But to explain the concept aforehand would be putting Descartes before the horse.

BrainBomb... see you voted for Bunny as well. How are you feeling about this now?

Not sure what exactly is going on here. its weird.
Vapor votes Espresso and Kalel joins. Kalel was voting bunny, asked me to join the bunny wagon.
Then votes espresso and bids bunny to join him on espresso.
This sequence of events makes no sense at all.

KalelChase
Day-1 00:59
page 53 / orig Well at least I know I wasn't Spiderman now. That's a clue I can count on.

No idea who's scum, but getting a better idea of who I think I can trust. I'll post my scum guesses when the trust list gets longer.

Kalel essentially tries to put out the notion he is a vt with no flavor name.

N1
Kalels posts get bigger. deeper. and far more in tune with the setup.
He starts by saying we need to worry most about thanos and why.
which presently is scums greatest worry not towns.

Is there any strategy the two teams can use to ID Thanos first?

kalel goes as far as to offer town and scum an alliance to root thanos out.

KalelChase
Night-1 22:31
page 59 / orig
↑Kitsune: "@Kalel

I don't agree that joking and being social makes you scummy, and this didn't enter into my evaluation as far as ..."

I'm learning more with every post, sensei. I'm wondering if the VT are more active on the thread at night because the Scum are busy whispering in the shadows? Or do the VT traditionally get quiet too? I'd hate to think 1/3 of the game would be boring just because I'm one of the good guys.

I'll be watching the post count over the next 24 hours

please note day 1 kalel said hes vt with no flavor name.

KalelChase
Night-1 21:11
page 60 / orig Sulit,

Welcome, if you have a stone we can really use you.

I know there's a lot to read through, but if you're Banner I could use the protection.

This is really really scummy and I advocate this guy gets blasted asap tomorrow.

If the Vision is out there you should really get that power going

Where is Kalel getting all this fresh sudden concern about thanos?
it was simply not there day 1

KalelChase
Night-1 21:02
page 60 / orig
↑sulit: "Dym explaining why really quick, kinda skimmed through the thread, want to give it a better read tomorrow"

No problem. Probably just being paranoid. So was that confirming you were banner

This is insanely scummy. doc fishing. absolutely no reason for this unless hes scum and saw in maf chat the scumteam talkin about their biggest concerns (thanos, the doc)

other posts of note

If I'm killed tonight you'll know it was rdrivera, Nephthys and Temasek.... if I make it through then I'll re-evaluate

I know there's a lot to read through, but if you're Banner I could use the protection

kill this person. asap

[brainbomb]

Pretty sure the mafia is
Kalel, Espresso, ND and rivera

[RagingIke297]

Is Thanos invincible to the Item Collector's thievery?

Good question.

##call GM

##GM note

Thanos is not immune to thievery, only the night kill

[Nephthys]

Pretty sure the mafia is
Kalel, Espresso, ND and rivera

I gotta say this would make a lot of sense...

[Nephthys]

Although I'm more inclined to kill espresso based on your analysis first
@xorx, this is my current stance on EP

[brainbomb]

Round 3
Nepthys god of Egypt
lover of mafia
stirrer of pots
hater of egomaniacs

Page 11 Neph dives in full force....

Nephthys
Day-1 39:31
page 11 / orig Calling it now

Espresso/bozo scumteam

Nephthys
Day-1 39:30
page 11 / orig @Espresso, whats there to love in the 5 brief posts from our dear bozo?

Nephthys
Day-1 39:29
page 11 / orig ##vote bozo

Neph is agitated that espresso is dismissing the chance bozo is scum.

Espresso
Jamie
Food
Bozo

consistently has reads that revolve around a worldview based on dialogue. neph attacks into his reads feircely. he is unashamedly laying down townreads on xorx, myself, and fighting people who dismiss his reads.

P29 he votes Espresso

It also forces scum to be decisive. For scum, every read, to some degree, is a decision "do I want this person to be a scum/town read?" Therefore, by removing all nulls, it forces them to make more decisions. The more decisions scum make, the easier they are to catch. This is why scum tend to be lower in posts that many town. Its harder by definition to go high posting scum and do well

Nephs towniest post. This level of explanation and profundity never comes from scum. This explains nephs philosophy on how he sees the game, how he sorts posts. how he hunts. this is who neph is, and he dont give a flyin fuck if you arent on board. hes not stopping for anything.

Nephthys
Day-1 21:16
page 30 / orig
↑bozotheclown: "I would like to try something that showed promising results in M47 and have everyone list 4 players they think are the m..."
##Vote bozo

This was useful yes and I intended to bring it up when relevant. This was also used to success last game although both times the game has progressed significantly than it currently has. There is little point in doing it now and it is the definition of content for the sake of content

Neph goes back to bozo, the espresso wagon was a hot thing for a while then it kinda died. but the bozo wagon was just in its new dawn

Nephthys
Day-1 20:20
page 31 / orig
↑BunnyGo: "##VOTE BOZO

His latest post tipped the balance for me."
What about it specifically?

Even after voting bozo, neph has sincere signs of uncertainty, trepidation. He gets pinged by BunnyGo here.

Neph is out here arguing about wagon composition with his scumreads

Ok then, how bout we start with analysing your wagon at its peak

EspressoPatronum (5) Foxcastle Vaporwave KalelChase xorxes brainbomb Nephthys

How many scum do you think were on you and who do you suspect?

I have firm townreads of brain and xorx atm

Of the rest I would say its probably Kalel/Vapor if any although theres the chance that all are town.

I think the vapor vote is perfectly logical and in line with his current chain of thought so overall

Total scum: 0 or 1
Likelihood: Kalel > Vapor > Fox > Xorx > Brain

More world building. he gets more convoluted here but remains consistent.

Gives kit advice p34

Har​dly.

I thought the whole entrance of the two of you weird. You came in with 5 very unremarkable posts, the only thing you did was say you thought there would be busser on the Vapor wagon. (of which I can make a case on in an of itself - will follow)

Espresso then flies in saying the only thoughts we had were that you were town and he wanted to see your mechanical thoughts.
1. Why were you the only person that he formed a read
2. Why are you his go to mechanics.
When asking people about mechanics, they can always bag some easy towncred. Therefore most people thoughts on mechanics are viable. This means that logically, you would go for the people who are the most familiar with the set up. In my head, both Jamie and brain are ahead of you on that one.

Essentially this left me with one big question

Why were you at the front of Espresso's mind?

The most logical answer is that he had seen your name recently. Its possible this was in a non-anon game or something but most likely that he read his PM where the rest of his scumteam was listed

Replies to bozo with a wealth of content. very detailed read. using logic, reasoning and his system.

Some tinfoil in here as well wrt role pm.

."
What logic was missing? Everything I stated is backed by endless amounts of research

My favorite neph post. innocent, affable, and explanatory
Neph explains everything he does as best he can
there are no inconsistencies or weird awkward exchanges.

Neph is my top townread. do not ever lynch him
do not ever vote him
I will hunt you down and find you if you ever harm neph
and ill banish you to the shadow realm

Neph TOWN

[brainbomb]

2 people left
Kit and BunBun
rolling...
2

BunnyGo is up.
Who is Bunny.
where did this loudmouth jackass come from? who cares, hes fuckin great. give this guy an ice cream sandwich and a "im town as fuck" bumper sticker

But first. why the hell did bunny lynch a bozo?

Bunny began the game voting ND because hes annoying.

ND is probably town. But still voting for him.

Kitsune is no noob, definitely scum

Brain is probably town. Annoying Ass.

this felt scummy to me at first
Bunny tried to imply kit found me to be an ass. Which is simply not true. Im not an ass and kit definetely is not of that mindset.

The curious thing is why ND is town. but I digress

Cool. Glad someone can read my posts. It makes sense since clearly I can’t read theirs.

As for the vote: I’m not voting for someone if I don’t have to on flimsy evidence that I don’t understand. With the scum knowing each other (when I play f2f they don’t know each other D1) I’m just so much more likely to kill a powered townie

This is towny in terms of process. Scum dont really post stuff like this. This helps form how bunny procedurally finds bad guys. What he looks for.

Could you explain this more to me. I'm not following the logic of why everyone is piling on Espresso

page 25 misunderstanding as to why espresso is scum. Not a great look for bunny if espresso is scum. But could still be sincere

bozo = LE. He's not posting much. He's taunting. He's just voting with no clear reason. And he seems to be trying to rile up the crowd without letting people focus or think.

Yea. these are good reasons why bozo needed to fuckin die. All true too.

BunnyGo
Day-1 20:33
page 31 / orig ##VOTE BOZO

His latest post tipped the balance for me

Not enough to quote what it was? sad. im sure youll provide the quote.

I'm a mathematician. We are earnest, angry, calculated, and are hard to push because we always think we know better. Nobody likes us, and we have varied levels of capability depending on how much coffee we've consumed

Bunny has bravado
Bunny has mission statements
Bunny has strong opinions and reads he gets in the trenches and fights for
Bunny plays like town
Is bunny good enough to power scum? maybe.

Bunny see Tony kill Spidey
Bunny reacts like an annoyed town

I think im just gonna lean bunny town for everything im seeing in his posts.
So bunny was not lynching bozo for scum motivated reasons

[brainbomb]

im going to bed.
ill focus on kit in the morning

my TLDR if you wanna skip my long analysis is
neph and bunny are town

kalel, ND, espresso and rivera are the scumteam.

[Nephthys]

he gets more convoluted here

Too real









too real

[Nephthys]

not enough, I'm about halfway there

Then you wanting people to consolidate on Chaqa/ND, when you're missing half of the story, is weird.

So if you find gold in a corner of a river it is 'weird' that you have not checked the entire river for gold? Is it less gold?

Yes.

It doesn't change the fact you have gold, however if you were to find a larger piece of gold in the river and were only allowed to take one away...