War, what is it good for?

[Octavious]

Good news, everyone!

The war in Ukraine is going so well that the US is going to supply the Ukrainian military with truck loads of cluster bombs. Described by the United Nations Secretary General as abhorrent and repulsive, and outlawed by almost the entire Western world because of their tendency to maim and kill civilians, particularly children, long after a war has finished, these weapons have long been popular with the, brutal, the corrupt and the desperate. Combined with the exciting news that conscription efforts are being pursued with ever increasing vigour, and punishment for those who run kept at a draconian 10 years in jail, it is impossible not to be overwhelmed by the opportunities to come.

Yay, the good guys!

[orathaic]

Good news, everyone!

The war in Ukraine is going so well that the US is going to supply the Ukrainian military with truck loads of cluster bombs. Described by the United Nations Secretary General as abhorrent and repulsive, and outlawed by almost the entire Western world because of their tendency to maim and kill civilians, particularly children, long after a war has finished, these weapons have long been popular with the, brutal, the corrupt and the desperate. Combined with the exciting news that conscription efforts are being pursued with ever increasing vigour, and punishment for those who run kept at a draconian 10 years in jail, it is impossible not to be overwhelmed by the opportunities to come.

Yay, the good guys!

Welcome to the ranks of every good Anarchist, leftist movement, anti-war and anti-Imperialsim. Glad to see you have finally converted.

[Octavious]

I have always been against conscription. I have always been been in favour of warfare having rules to prevent atrocities and abhorrent weapons. None of these are peculiar to anarchists or lefties. And as you have been enthusiastically pro war from the start I'm not sure you're well placed to welcome anyone regardless

[orathaic]

I am not pro-war, to start with, iirc i said i didn't believe Russia was stupid enough to invade, i think i (very wrongly) predicted it was all some kind of scam.

I am anti- Imperialism, and this case of Russian Imperialism is rather clear. The lesser of two evils, in supporting NATO based military aid to Ukraine, seems to be the best bad option there is (unless you can think of another way to end the war...)

[Octavious]

unless you can think of another way to end the war..

The negotiated settlement where Russia keeps the Crimea and the east, that was the obvious solution after the first week and remains the obvious solution despite a couple of hundred thousand deaths, millions made homeless, and many billions of dollars lost, perhaps?

[Octavious]

But the big question is this.

When Biden was saying that these weapons were needed because the Ukraine was running out of ammunition, was he lying in order to justify making an evil decision that will ultimately lead to multiple civilian casualties? Or was he being truthful and the Ukraine military is up shit creek with the much anticipated spring /summer offensive failing to achieve anything other than more dead Ukrainians?

[orathaic]

Given the number of cluster munitions that Russia has used already, I'm not sure this will make a big difference, infact if it helps end the war more quickly (possibly because the US stockpile of ammunition is running low and production is not meeting Ukrainian use levels) it may save lives.

At least that is the calculated risk the US is taking.

The other excuses i have heard are Ukraine will not use these munitikns as intended and will instead crack open the shell and attach individual bombs to drones to drop on tanks and trenches...not sure how much truth there is to that, but i take it is likely to happen at least once.

The Russians had Crimea and the East, so negotiating them back to what they already had at the start of the war seems unlikely to fly until their plan (to wait until the Western nations get bored of supplying weapons to Ukraine) will get them more by not negotiating. So at the moment the US and NATO allies are promising long term aid. Which may oray not help end the war sooner.

[Octavious]

They had a small part of the east. What would be required to end it would be the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge linking the two (Zaporizhzhia and the land south of the river, say).

It is remarkable how many things become necessary to win the war, and yet the war continues very much the same regardless of how many of these things come to pass.

The most immediate significant impact of the cluster bomb, of course, is an impressive lowering of the moral high ground

[Octavious]

So, tomorrow sees the anniversary of Niger's independence from France. An independence that has recently been dramatically underlined by a military coup by Russian backed vehemently anti-French individuals. Whilst Western eyes are focused on Ukraine the advance of Russian influence at the expense of the West in Africa has been staggering.

Whilst thousands march in the streets of Niger chanting "Long Live Putin", the far more West friendly Economic Community of West African States has imposed sanctions and threatened invasion.

We're not doing too well at this war lark

[Octavious]

The first deadline for the Ecowas threat of action is fast approaching. The imprisoned former President has spoken out, saying that the coup has:

"devastating consequences for our country, our region and the entire world. The entire central Sahel region could fall to Russian influence via the Wagner group"

Plans for military intervention have been drawn making use of Western (primarily French) logistical support. Place your bets and spin the wheel.

[taylor4]

@Octav.: RE: "Western (primarily French) Logistical support ... "

Franc hAs so much in the game. Sa petite hegemonie de Afrique vaincue par le nouveau salle de bain boche nom.

[orathaic]

French West africa is something I saw recently described as the abusive relationship which ended but the abuser refused to leave ..

Yes, independent former French colonies are in revolt. The only surprise is that is took this long.

NB one of the reasons France has managed to run their country on ~80% nuclear power is the exploitation of Uranium mines in the former French colonies. So this may play into Europe's energy crisis if Russia manages to disrupt that supply. Not sure what the timeline on that will look like.

PS: it would be nice to see Western media discuss this, but nicer still to see African nations treated like equal partners instead of being discussed like they have no right to decide their own foreign policies. Not that Russia will offer them anything resembling that level of respect.

[Octavious]

A few noteworthy updates from the weekend

The US has avoided a government shutdown for the next month or so with an agreement that sees a halt to additional funding of Ukraine. This is quite symbolic, as it both underlines Republican skepticism of the whole project, and also shows that it's the issue Democrats are most willing to compromise on.

The Slovakian election has been won by a chap who campaigned heavily on the issue of stopping weapons shipments to Ukraine. It remains unclear what the government will actually look like once the PR horsetrading has ended, but Slovakia is unlikely to be the steadfast Ukrainian ally it used to be.

Meanwhile the front line has moved virtually nowhere for a year, with both Russian and Ukrainian offensives ending in failure. Russia has time on its side, and it is becoming ever more clear that Ukraine does not.

Still, in the midst of this depression we at least have Canada to provide comic relief. They have really gone the extra mile in recent weeks

[flash2015]

Climate scientists have an anti-growth problem:

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/do ... ve-an-anti

Climate scientists believe far less in "green growth" than the general population, especially the social science ones. More climate scientists believe in "degrowth" than in "green growth". This is of course ideological delusion. You won't get people to vote for no growth, let alone "degrowth" anywhere on the planet.

[flash2015]

Whoops. Wrong topic

[Octavious]

Just wondering what people's opinions were regarding Israel

Same war, different theatre... or unconnected?

[Jamiet99uk]

Just wondering what people's opinions were regarding Israel

Same war, different theatre... or unconnected?

Well, first of all, it's horrific, thousands of people have died, and many more people will likely die before things calm down.

Israel has a borderline fascist government hell bent on crushing the remaining Palestinians and finally erasing them from the land that has been stolen from them. The present Israeli government and military could not care less if Palestinian civilians suffer and die.

Hamas is a similarly extreme organisation willing (as we have seen) to engage in unrestricted warfare against Israeli civilians and to commit murder indiscriminately.

In the middle are ordinary people, situated where they are by accident of birth, who are suffering.

The situation is a complex one but the UK and USA (as well as several Arab states) have a significant share of the historical guilt in allowing things to reach this horrible point.

[Octavious]

Quite so. Quite how the pro-Israel lobby can go down the "how dare the cowards not attack purely military targets" line with a straight face I have no idea. It would be a bit like a knight in full armour challenging a peasant with a stick to a dual and crying dishonor when he refuses. (and incase ora becomes tempted to swing the discussion round to Ireland, he should know in advance that I see this as being neither the time nor place for it)

Having said that the attack was clearly well beyond the pale, carried out in full knowledge of the inevitable response, and clearly planned with complete disregard for the innocent lives both in Israel proper and Gaza.

So why did it happen? There are more than enough Palestinians with nothing left but rage to willingly participate in such an atrocity, but Hamas before now has seemed content to vent its anger on firing off its stockpile of Iranian missiles when they've grown numerous enough to start being embarrassing. That combined with encouraging young idiots to lob rocks at tanks in the hope they get shot and generate global sympathy has been all Hamas has seemed interested in doing. This is quite the departure.

It clearly benefits Iran to torpedo the Israel - Saudi Arabia alliance before it can be established (and how it hasn't been established by now is something of a mystery), but if it is Iran's doing then they have managed to establish a firmer control over Hamas than I would have thought possible.

And if Iran's hand is confirmed, the potential for a wider conflict is alarming. Assuming that this isn't already part of a wider conflict...

[orathaic]

Things i have learned about the Israel Palestine situation in the last week:

Hamas was originally funded in part by Israel to destabilise the more moderate and secular Fatah (If this is true, it worked, and has pushed a two-state solution beyond the realm of possibility).

Hamas has three main functions, operating religious schools, providing aid to the poor, and their military wing. Making them not just a paramilitary group, but also paraeducation and parasocial welfare.

Russia is happy to see the US and NATO allies distracted from the war in Ukraine, and.

Iran is perfectly happy to send proxies to fight and kill Israelis while sitting back safely at home.

I don't want to paint this as a one sided good vs evil situation. The NATO alliance would also be perfectly happy to send in proxies, if they had any trust left in the region. But if this conflict could have been avoided, i think bringing Iran back into the fold would be the first step.

The deaths of civilian targets is relatively normal in a asymetric conflict, it should still be condemned in the srongest of terms. But condemnation does not have much effect, so i would love to see stronger options available.

[Octavious]

I don't think the opportunity to bring Iran back into the fold currently exists, nor will it exist for some time to come after these actions. I reckon the absolute best we can hope for is that Israel doesn't decide that attacking Iran directly is its only option.