Electoral College predictions (among others)

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flash2015
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#41 Post by flash2015 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:39 pm

My guess of around double the 2016 popular vote difference is probably going to be about bang on (Biden probably wins the popular vote now by somewhere between 5 - 7 million votes)
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orathaic
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#42 Post by orathaic » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:16 am

Did I predict violence? As protestors get out into the streets to call for vote counting to (stop/continue, delete as appropriate)... Trump has managed to throw another spanner into the works.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#43 Post by RoganJosh » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:19 pm

I was expecting a more serious effort by Trump to go to the courts. So far only bogus suits that look to be dismissed immediately. Like, I thought that was their back-up plan in case actually counting the votes didn't go their way?

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#44 Post by Randomizer » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:45 pm

Trump wants to go immediately to the Supreme Court where he only needs to win 5 votes and he appointed 3 of them. Howver it doesn't work that way and the lower courts can dismiss his efforts without trial on the grounds that the states still haven't certified any results in the disputed states,
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#45 Post by RoganJosh » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:03 pm

Yeah I get that. I'm more surprised at that all the suites coming now seem so ... unprepared. But maybe they're just waiting.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#46 Post by Randomizer » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:14 am

https://news.yahoo.com/why-the-polls-we ... 38787.html

The polls got it wrong again this election. Trump's toadies keep getting undercounted,

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#47 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:21 am

Holy shit that press conference was a mess. Trump looked and sounded like a tired, confused old man.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#48 Post by President Eden » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:04 am

President Eden wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:38 pm
But if no shenanigans:

EC map: https://i.imgur.com/0b9Zw3U.png
EC result: Trump 274 - 264
Popular vote projection: Biden +3.5-4%
Revisiting this... per AP:

- Biden won popular vote by 3.3%. Close but no cigar.
- Called 47/50 states right. 7/10 swing states (if New Hampshire still counts; 6/9 otherwise). Got the exact district breakdown in Maine & Nebraska. Missed Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia. Got Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire.
- Sadly, called the wrong victor lol.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#49 Post by flash2015 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:36 pm

I was right on Georgia, Arizona, Florida, Texas, WI, MI...but I thought he could lose PA over the fracking comments and I thought he could lose Nevada. I also thought he would get the Maine 2nd (?) district...so I was wrong there too. I was right on the victor, thankfully.

The popular vote is still not finished yet...and the remaining votes will be overwhelmingly democratic. So it will be higher than 3.3% (over 5M). How much higher is TBD.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#50 Post by flash2015 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:00 pm

RoganJosh wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:03 pm
Yeah I get that. I'm more surprised at that all the suites coming now seem so ... unprepared. But maybe they're just waiting.
We can be thankful that the autocrat wanna-be currently in the White House, outside his propaganda distribution machine, is quite incompetent.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#51 Post by orathaic » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:25 pm

I was right about seeing higher turnout, not sure I placed a number on it...

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#52 Post by Octavious » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:25 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:00 pm
RoganJosh wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:03 pm
Yeah I get that. I'm more surprised at that all the suites coming now seem so ... unprepared. But maybe they're just waiting.
We can be thankful that the autocrat wanna-be currently in the White House, outside his propaganda distribution machine, is quite incompetent.
When your narrative only makes sense if you assume that the enemy is incompetent, the chances are that your narrative is flawed. If the enemy has a track record of surprising victories, your narrative is definitely flawed.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#53 Post by flash2015 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:06 pm

Octavious wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:25 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:00 pm
RoganJosh wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:03 pm
Yeah I get that. I'm more surprised at that all the suites coming now seem so ... unprepared. But maybe they're just waiting.
We can be thankful that the autocrat wanna-be currently in the White House, outside his propaganda distribution machine, is quite incompetent.
When your narrative only makes sense if you assume that the enemy is incompetent, the chances are that your narrative is flawed. If the enemy has a track record of surprising victories, your narrative is definitely flawed.
He hasn't been showing the competence though, especially lately. For example Guiliani's press conference in the car part of Four Seasons Total Landscaping instead of the Four Seasons hotel. Trump's lawyers have been making really dumb errors in filing many of their election lawsuits. Or all the executive orders over Trump's term which were knocked back by the court because the Trump administration couldn't draw them up correctly (e.g. like screwing up the reversal of DACA).

I could be wrong of course. I hope I am not. The lawsuits could be all just a play for time to just run out the clock. The states in question all have Republican legislators and they could theoretically decide to ignore the election and send their own slate of electors.

Trump recently got rid of the defense secretary, Esper. It is weird to do it now with only two months to go. The big point of contention between Trump and Esper was that Esper was not prepared to invoke the Insurrection act. The Insurrection Act allows the federal government to use troops for law enforcement. So this may indicate Trump is preparing for civil unrest if Republicans are able to ignore the election result.
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#54 Post by Matticus13 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:07 am

flash2015 wrote:
Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:06 pm
Octavious wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:25 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:00 pm


We can be thankful that the autocrat wanna-be currently in the White House, outside his propaganda distribution machine, is quite incompetent.
When your narrative only makes sense if you assume that the enemy is incompetent, the chances are that your narrative is flawed. If the enemy has a track record of surprising victories, your narrative is definitely flawed.
He hasn't been showing the competence though, especially lately. For example Guiliani's press conference in the car part of Four Seasons Total Landscaping instead of the Four Seasons hotel. Trump's lawyers have been making really dumb errors in filing many of their election lawsuits. Or all the executive orders over Trump's term which were knocked back by the court because the Trump administration couldn't draw them up correctly (e.g. like screwing up the reversal of DACA).

I could be wrong of course. I hope I am not. The lawsuits could be all just a play for time to just run out the clock. The states in question all have Republican legislators and they could theoretically decide to ignore the election and send their own slate of electors.

Trump recently got rid of the defense secretary, Esper. It is weird to do it now with only two months to go. The big point of contention between Trump and Esper was that Esper was not prepared to invoke the Insurrection act. The Insurrection Act allows the federal government to use troops for law enforcement. So this may indicate Trump is preparing for civil unrest if Republicans are able to ignore the election result.
The running theory is that Trump is going to try and accelerate the withdrawals from the Middle East. Esper has apparently been a major hurdle for Trump; going behind his back to have military heads help him talk Trump into slowing down.
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flash2015
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#55 Post by flash2015 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:21 am

I hope that is the case. I will be happier though when I see some sign that Trump actually recognizes he will be out of power soon.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#56 Post by orathaic » Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:48 am

According to Trevor Noah, Trump is making money off donations to his 'save the election' campaign, and may be doing it for personal gain : https://youtu.be/F_3M4Mugg-A

Is that fraud?

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#57 Post by Matticus13 » Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:08 pm

orathaic wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:48 am
According to Trevor Noah, Trump is making money off donations to his 'save the election' campaign, and may be doing it for personal gain : https://youtu.be/F_3M4Mugg-A

Is that fraud?
There are disclaimers in the emails soliciting for donations stating where the money is actually going. While the content of the emails are misleading, I seriously doubt it could be classified as fraud.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#58 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:36 am

You know, there's a term for guys like Trump....


...but not two, apparently.
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#59 Post by Vaporwave » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:05 pm

I'm not for or pro Trump, I think he's unfit to be president tbh, I also think some people just have a hate boner for him

I will say that I prefer Biden tbh, even tho Biden is more like a pupet type of prezz

However, it seems that it will be impossible for the US to get rid of Cheetos

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#60 Post by orathaic » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:57 pm

Biden is a centrist, the more right the US political norm goes the further right it seems to drag the Democrats. Trump is more than just unfit. He is selfish, and deceptively smart, but he doesn't have any interest in putting the country first. He just wants to be a reality TV star.

4 years as the lead in the USA show is enough for any country. Fortunately the left and far left have accepted that the lesser of two evils is better than more of the status quo.

EDIT: perhaps the far left have not. They may be the minority who refused to vote. ~67% turnout leaves a lot of people who didn't bother, even with all the celebrity Trump brought to the party.
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