War, what is it good for?

[orathaic]

It is pretty easy to square a circle when you realise that what people precieve and reality can be different.

Russia can think they are a peer to NATO and thus be a threat, while blaming the fact of Ukraine's western assistance for any failures...

What they thought they could do and what they have demonstrated they can do are miles apart. That much is clear. Though i don't know how the security services have shaken things out since their early analysis has proven so flawed. A few fired generals a least (or whatever the equivalent rank is).

[orathaic]

Further, if they have faced a series of failures, they may attempt to fix them. And b'é in better shape than NATO forces some of whom have never seen combat, least of all against a near-peer force.

But importantly, Russia can field impressive hardware - without being able to rely on their troops to follow orders, unit cohesion or morale.

[Octavious]

It is pretty easy to square a circle when you realise that what people precieve and reality can be different.

Russia can think they are a peer to NATO and thus be a threat, while blaming the fact of Ukraine's western assistance for any failures...

Ok, you can make that argument about Russia (I'm not particularly inclined to give it much weight, but it has some basis in logic at least). The trouble is that, even if you assume that Russia was suffering from some mass delusion, you were talking about a European fear that they'd be next and Europe does not share Russian delusions. Especially now that they have seen clear evidence of Russian military abilities. There should now be zero fear across all NATO members and EU members that Russia will be in any position to attack them for the foreseeable future. The European people will simply no longer believe, if they ever did, that Russia is a clear and immediate threat to them.

[Octavious]

Oh, and here's an interesting development that's not widely reported.

Following their Moscow meeting, Hungary has increased Russian gas imports by 700 MMcmg and decided to reroute all of their Russian gas imports from Nord Stream 1 to Turkstream. Make of that what you will.

European unity in action

[orathaic]

Yes, i think Hungary is not unified with the rest of the EU, but Poland (which was blocking any actions being taken against the increasingly authoritatian Hungarian government) is leading the EU in calls for sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine, so i suspect Hungary is feeling more isolated from the EU than ever...

See: https://dailynewshungary.com/eu-gives-h ... end-funds/
(Apparently this is some uptodate info on how the EU is dealing with Orban)

[Octavious]

The more the EU attacks Hungary the more other member populations will worry about it, regardless of whether or not the attacks are justified. The EU shoots itself in the foot with depressing regularity, but the Hungary situation is for once a blow which for which the EU is mostly blameless. The timing is unfortunate. Too many blows are landing this year.

The Ukraine conflict, the cost of living crisis, inflation, the collapse of the Euro against the Dollar, the massive increase in illegal immigration on top of the Ukrainian refugee crisis, the weak French and German governments, the fall of the Italian government, Hungary, increased strike action, farmer protests... and winter is coming.

If we're really lucky there won't be an unforseen crisis to add to the mix. If we're really really lucky Kherson, which the Russians have occupied for months and has been the obvious focal point for Ukraine counter offensive for quite some time, will turn out not to be a trap.

Time will tell

[Octavious]

Zelensky has ordered the complete civilian evacuation of the Donetsk region.

[orathaic]

Much more detailed analysis: https://youtu.be/VQ9jX7pGEjA

[Octavious]

An interesting listen.

Oh, here's a thought for you. What do you think the chances are of a Russian - North Korean alliance? Last year it would have been unthinkable as doing so would make Russia a pariah, but as it's a pariah anyway this will no longer be a deterrent. Russia has a lot of spare cash, energy, food, and a UN Security Council veto. Korea has several hundred thousand spare troops, some of whom are reputedly pretty good and the rest can hold a line as well as anyone. And they have a shared border and rail links. The incentives for both parties are huge.

Also, and in an entirely unrelated subject, what the hell is Irish road bowls?!? The Facebook algorithm has recently decided that I'm a potential superfan and my feed is full of the damned stuff

[orathaic]

I think the chances are slim.

Russia is happy to use troops raised from indigenous groups within their borders, so I'm sure they would be happy to throw Korean troops into the fray.

North Korea on the other hand probably doesn't care what is happening in Ukraine, and I'm not sure any amount of Russian aid would make a difference. But i could be wrong, i don't know much about their thinking (other than the obvious).

I don't know whether the US would like to see the conflict escalate like that, and could certainly threaten NK if it came to it (i'd say targeted airstrikes could erode the infrastructure and prevent the mass movement of troop into Russia)... But i doubt that is going to happen.

As for Irish road bowls, i have no idea, never heard of them.

[orathaic]

https://youtu.be/hyldM3pKZAU

Very pro-Ukraine video. As with all war news, i don't know how accurate the picture presented is

[taylor4]

Like, English lawn bowls? Petanque on the Brexit economic Zone?
BTW, Japan says that China missiles landed in the Japanese EEZ

[flash2015]

https://youtu.be/hyldM3pKZAU

Very pro-Ukraine video. As with all war news, i don't know how accurate the picture presented is

I watched his video. I think he is right about the importance of the upcoming Kherson offensive. Hopefully the HIMARS rockets are really the game changer he suggests they are.

A less positive view on the situation:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/ukr ... f-kherson/

The good thing though is that we will be able to determine who is correct in the next few weeks.

[orathaic]

Very negative, one thing is worth noting, why does the Ukrainian government keep announcing the imment retaking of Kherson (whether the whole region of just the city) - one simple explanation i have made is that they are trying to deter collaborators from making it easier to run the region.

If the Russians only suffer from resistance and have no support from collaborators on the ground in Kherson, this makes it more difficult for Russia to remain.

It also ignored the possibility of a demoralized Russian force in the city of Kherson surrendering. Which may require only one miracle rather than 3. This still requires cutting off the river crossings and prevents moving beyond, retaking the city would still be a pretty major political victory.

Seperately, has anyone else seen the price of oil? Apparently it is now (or was recently) Below the level from February just before the invasion. If that continues (combined with the sanctions and lower purchases by Europeans) then it looks like the Russian govt will be out of money in about 18 months... Which of course is a very long time for Ukraine to continue fighting/the west to continue paying attention and public support.

[Octavious]

The trouble with the idea of Russians surrendering is that Ukraine, in a moment of self defeating stupidity for the sake of a short term morale boost, has a reputation for taking POWs and throwing them in prison for war crimes. The most famous and widely reported case is that chap who shot a civilian, pleaded guilty, and was jailed for life. Other cases, though, have included captured Russian artillary men jailed for over a decade for the war crime of shelling a town. Shelling towns, of course, is pretty much all that Russian artillary men do.

Whilst you can have some sympathy with Ukraine for doing this, the inevitable result is that the thousands of Russian troops who may have been considering surrender as a preferable way of living through the rest of the war now have to consider the prospect of rotting in a hostile jail for the majority of their young adult lives. They knew that surrender means a future of being shat upon by the Motherland, but they now also know that it means being shat upon by the Ukrainians as well. That's a lot of shite that comes with that particular career choice, so the option of hunkering down in the defensive positions and hoping for the best suddenly seems a lot more attractive

[orathaic]

Yeah, i still think they should be offering amnesty for surrendering troops, and paying those who bring Russian equipment with them/defect...

But cutting them off and eroding their ability to fight will likely have some playoff in the long term. Again, it remains a question what the long term looks like for Ukraine's military capacity, economy, and Russia's ability to maintain the same.

[orathaic]

Apparently Russia TV is reporting a possible 100,000 North Korean 'volunteers' may be going to Ukraine.

(Though this src claims it is a joke: https://youtu.be/o5hzTaX7chk )

[Octavious]

I don't think this particular YouTuber is very good. His analysis of North Korea was frankly laughable. As for the report in the Russian media, they're clearly just taking their lead from the webDip forums.

Did the Russian media provide an opinion on Irish Road Bowls, out of interest?

[orathaic]

Did the Russian media provide an opinion on Irish Road Bowls, out of interest?

If they did, i haven't come across it.

[taylor4]

The target Belarus area ...

Fecking riffraff in those Irish Road Bowels