MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

If you have a game you want to play on the forum, you can do so here.
Forum rules
This is an area for forum games. Please note that to support mafia games players cannot edit their own posts in this forum. Off Topic threads will be relocated or deleted. Issues taking place in forum games should be dealt with by respective game GMs and escalated to the moderators only if absolutely necessary.
Message
Author
User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2381 Post by flash2015 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:41 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:25 pm
##vote flash

as per Bismarck

game over
It won't be, just promise me you vote rdr last. It can't be Squigs. Go back to day 4. There is no way jumping off bozo to go to fox at the last second would have been a good move for a scum Squigs. I could see scum sacrificing once. I can't see it happen twice. I would put good money on rdr being the last scum.

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2382 Post by flash2015 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:42 pm

worcej wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:23 pm
##vote flash

I am going based off the current recommendation from the tracker. However, the biggest issue I see is the last list Bismark posted was this on N4:

"Squiggs - always thought the MODS' reluctance to Modkill Demon was strange.
Flash
Bozo
RdRivera

Aim well, Mr JOAT! One is Mafia, One is SK, and the others are Town (one is the Tracker unfortunately!) and Worcej I have to think about some more, as he has always been on my scum meter (as on others') despite his protestations."


I believe he tracked me on N4 to clear me and had Damo cleared sometime before that. What sucks is Bismark was very inactive throughout the game and lurked, meaning there are few posts to read into. Based on the messages, it seems N2 may have been when he cleared Damo. Not that this really matters...
I am fine with this. Just promise me you vote rdr tomorrow. Vote rdr tomorrow and town wins.

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2383 Post by flash2015 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:45 pm

Just get it over with. ##END

And if Squigs dies tonight, worcej and damo please don't let rdr divide the two of you!

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2384 Post by flash2015 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:14 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:31 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:23 pm
##vote flash

I am going based off the current recommendation from the tracker. However, the biggest issue I see is the last list Bismark posted was this on N4:

"Squiggs - always thought the MODS' reluctance to Modkill Demon was strange.
Flash
Bozo
RdRivera

Aim well, Mr JOAT! One is Mafia, One is SK, and the others are Town (one is the Tracker unfortunately!) and Worcej I have to think about some more, as he has always been on my scum meter (as on others') despite his protestations."


I believe he tracked me on N4 to clear me and had Damo cleared sometime before that. What sucks is Bismark was very inactive throughout the game and lurked, meaning there are few posts to read into. Based on the messages, it seems N2 may have been when he cleared Damo. Not that this really matters...
The problem with the Tracker is any track before N4 isn't really 100% as the last scum isn't doing the nightkills until Fox was lynched. So, even Damo isn't completely town cleared. So, time to do some re-reading.
I know you are going to follow the same stategy as Bozo - try and invalidate what is very clear (Vecna made clear he was using his JOAT kill on you - Bismarck has town cleared worcej and damo). So your plan will have to be to take me out today because I am the easy kill, take Squigs out tonight as you townread him (and because he is the most experienced player), then try and divide worcej/damo.

I am not going to fight my lynching today...as I have become a distraction to tunnel on...and gives you more time to work your strategy. And as long as you get lynched tomorrow town wins anyway.

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2385 Post by flash2015 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:16 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:14 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:31 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:23 pm
##vote flash

I am going based off the current recommendation from the tracker. However, the biggest issue I see is the last list Bismark posted was this on N4:

"Squiggs - always thought the MODS' reluctance to Modkill Demon was strange.
Flash
Bozo
RdRivera

Aim well, Mr JOAT! One is Mafia, One is SK, and the others are Town (one is the Tracker unfortunately!) and Worcej I have to think about some more, as he has always been on my scum meter (as on others') despite his protestations."


I believe he tracked me on N4 to clear me and had Damo cleared sometime before that. What sucks is Bismark was very inactive throughout the game and lurked, meaning there are few posts to read into. Based on the messages, it seems N2 may have been when he cleared Damo. Not that this really matters...
The problem with the Tracker is any track before N4 isn't really 100% as the last scum isn't doing the nightkills until Fox was lynched. So, even Damo isn't completely town cleared. So, time to do some re-reading.
I know you are going to follow the same stategy as Bozo - try and invalidate what is very clear (Vecna made clear he was using his JOAT kill on Bozo yet Bozo tried to throw doubt on it - Bismarck has town cleared worcej and damo and you will throw doubt on this). So your plan will have to be to take me out today because I am the easy kill, take Squigs out tonight as you townread him (and because he is the most experienced player), then try and divide worcej/damo.

I am not going to fight my lynching today...as I have become a distraction to tunnel on...and gives you more time to work your strategy. And as long as you get lynched tomorrow town wins anyway.
Fixed typo

rdrivera2005
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 7440
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:17 pm
Location: Porto Alegre, Brasil
Karma: 2825
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2386 Post by rdrivera2005 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:53 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:14 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:31 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:23 pm
##vote flash

I am going based off the current recommendation from the tracker. However, the biggest issue I see is the last list Bismark posted was this on N4:

"Squiggs - always thought the MODS' reluctance to Modkill Demon was strange.
Flash
Bozo
RdRivera

Aim well, Mr JOAT! One is Mafia, One is SK, and the others are Town (one is the Tracker unfortunately!) and Worcej I have to think about some more, as he has always been on my scum meter (as on others') despite his protestations."


I believe he tracked me on N4 to clear me and had Damo cleared sometime before that. What sucks is Bismark was very inactive throughout the game and lurked, meaning there are few posts to read into. Based on the messages, it seems N2 may have been when he cleared Damo. Not that this really matters...
The problem with the Tracker is any track before N4 isn't really 100% as the last scum isn't doing the nightkills until Fox was lynched. So, even Damo isn't completely town cleared. So, time to do some re-reading.
I know you are going to follow the same stategy as Bozo - try and invalidate what is very clear (Vecna made clear he was using his JOAT kill on you - Bismarck has town cleared worcej and damo). So your plan will have to be to take me out today because I am the easy kill, take Squigs out tonight as you townread him (and because he is the most experienced player), then try and divide worcej/damo.

I am not going to fight my lynching today...as I have become a distraction to tunnel on...and gives you more time to work your strategy. And as long as you get lynched tomorrow town wins anyway.
Flash, you are wrong and if you are really town I suggest you made a case why you should not be lynched or town will probably lose as I will be the lynch tomorrow and I am not scum. And you are mistaken, Vecna was shooting Bozo and not me and I am pretty sure Bozo killed him.
And if we lose I blame this on Vecna as he tunneled on us and exposed the Tracker.

Squigs44
Developer
Developer
Posts: 4003
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:50 pm
Location: OKC
Karma: 2010
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2387 Post by Squigs44 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:44 am

Rdrivera is right, flash. If you are town you shouldn't just roll over. At least make a case on Rdrivera if you are that confident he is scum. Preferably you would look at all of the players still in the game and evaluate them as well. Also, as we post cases against you, defend yourself. Just rolling over and giving up does not help town. Working on finding scum is always what is best for town.
That being said, I'm home from work now and should be able to put together comprehensive reads on everyone left now that I'm not on mobile.

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2388 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:49 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:53 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:14 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:31 pm


The problem with the Tracker is any track before N4 isn't really 100% as the last scum isn't doing the nightkills until Fox was lynched. So, even Damo isn't completely town cleared. So, time to do some re-reading.
I know you are going to follow the same stategy as Bozo - try and invalidate what is very clear (Vecna made clear he was using his JOAT kill on you - Bismarck has town cleared worcej and damo). So your plan will have to be to take me out today because I am the easy kill, take Squigs out tonight as you townread him (and because he is the most experienced player), then try and divide worcej/damo.

I am not going to fight my lynching today...as I have become a distraction to tunnel on...and gives you more time to work your strategy. And as long as you get lynched tomorrow town wins anyway.
Flash, you are wrong and if you are really town I suggest you made a case why you should not be lynched or town will probably lose as I will be the lynch tomorrow and I am not scum. And you are mistaken, Vecna was shooting Bozo and not me and I am pretty sure Bozo killed him.
And if we lose I blame this on Vecna as he tunneled on us and exposed the Tracker.
The only possible scum remaining is you and me...unless you discredit the tracker. Again Mafia like yourself work on possibility (it is **possible** that the tracker typed out the message wrong or is throwing the game) instead of the probably (the tracker is clearly indicating that worcej and damo are cleared):

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... babilities

I know I am not going to convince people that I am not scum (I have already given explanations multiple times for what happened D4), so it is better for me to encourage my clear lynching rather than potentially splitting the vote and potentially allowing a tie (which would be the worse possible result for town here). I am even prepared to vote for myself to stop the tie.

And on the Vecna issue, it looks like you are responding to my first message instead of the second where I fixed my typo. Of course Vecna shot Bozo. Further discussion of whether Vecna played good/bad are irrelevant to the fact that only you and I are the only potential scum remaining.

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2389 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:17 am

Squigs44 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:44 am
Rdrivera is right, flash. If you are town you shouldn't just roll over. At least make a case on Rdrivera if you are that confident he is scum. Preferably you would look at all of the players still in the game and evaluate them as well. Also, as we post cases against you, defend yourself. Just rolling over and giving up does not help town. Working on finding scum is always what is best for town.
That being said, I'm home from work now and should be able to put together comprehensive reads on everyone left now that I'm not on mobile.
Again, there are only two possible scum left in the game, me and rdr. It is a process of elimination. I don't see any other possibility unless you ignore the tracker (as I have said, I have town cleared you). Do you see another possibility? Are you going to ignore the tracker? Don't let rdr mess with your head!

My history is out there. I have explained my actions on D4. If I didn't trust Vecna my actions were logical,. But if you don't believe that and you believe I am scum I must have been playing a blinder up until then as I was widely town read (I wish I was that good).

Anyway damo and worcej seem pretty darn convinced I am scum and I don't believe that will change. As I have been clear and consistent on all game, the worst thing for town is to potentially have a tie, which could happen if you vote for rdr and damo/worcej still vote for me. If me and rdr are both alive tomorrow, there is a big chance that town loses. I don't want us to be in that position.

This is not reverse psychology or WIFOM. Just like Peter and Vecna did, I am willing take one for the team to allow town to win. If you have any doubts on me at all or if you believe there is any risk of a tie no matter how small, I encourage you to vote for me so that town has a clear path to victory tomorrow.

User avatar
worcej
Posts: 11613
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:39 am
Location: Washington
Karma: 6706
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2390 Post by worcej » Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:43 am

flash2015 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:17 am
Squigs44 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:44 am
Rdrivera is right, flash. If you are town you shouldn't just roll over. At least make a case on Rdrivera if you are that confident he is scum. Preferably you would look at all of the players still in the game and evaluate them as well. Also, as we post cases against you, defend yourself. Just rolling over and giving up does not help town. Working on finding scum is always what is best for town.
That being said, I'm home from work now and should be able to put together comprehensive reads on everyone left now that I'm not on mobile.
Again, there are only two possible scum left in the game, me and rdr. It is a process of elimination. I don't see any other possibility unless you ignore the tracker (as I have said, I have town cleared you). Do you see another possibility? Are you going to ignore the tracker? Don't let rdr mess with your head!

My history is out there. I have explained my actions on D4. If I didn't trust Vecna my actions were logical,. But if you don't believe that and you believe I am scum I must have been playing a blinder up until then as I was widely town read (I wish I was that good).

Anyway damo and worcej seem pretty darn convinced I am scum and I don't believe that will change. As I have been clear and consistent on all game, the worst thing for town is to potentially have a tie, which could happen if you vote for rdr and damo/worcej still vote for me. If me and rdr are both alive tomorrow, there is a big chance that town loses. I don't want us to be in that position.

This is not reverse psychology or WIFOM. Just like Peter and Vecna did, I am willing take one for the team to allow town to win. If you have any doubts on me at all or if you believe there is any risk of a tie no matter how small, I encourage you to vote for me so that town has a clear path to victory tomorrow.
Why is Squigs 100% town?

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2391 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:52 am

worcej wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:43 am
flash2015 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:17 am
Squigs44 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:44 am
Rdrivera is right, flash. If you are town you shouldn't just roll over. At least make a case on Rdrivera if you are that confident he is scum. Preferably you would look at all of the players still in the game and evaluate them as well. Also, as we post cases against you, defend yourself. Just rolling over and giving up does not help town. Working on finding scum is always what is best for town.
That being said, I'm home from work now and should be able to put together comprehensive reads on everyone left now that I'm not on mobile.
Again, there are only two possible scum left in the game, me and rdr. It is a process of elimination. I don't see any other possibility unless you ignore the tracker (as I have said, I have town cleared you). Do you see another possibility? Are you going to ignore the tracker? Don't let rdr mess with your head!

My history is out there. I have explained my actions on D4. If I didn't trust Vecna my actions were logical,. But if you don't believe that and you believe I am scum I must have been playing a blinder up until then as I was widely town read (I wish I was that good).

Anyway damo and worcej seem pretty darn convinced I am scum and I don't believe that will change. As I have been clear and consistent on all game, the worst thing for town is to potentially have a tie, which could happen if you vote for rdr and damo/worcej still vote for me. If me and rdr are both alive tomorrow, there is a big chance that town loses. I don't want us to be in that position.

This is not reverse psychology or WIFOM. Just like Peter and Vecna did, I am willing take one for the team to allow town to win. If you have any doubts on me at all or if you believe there is any risk of a tie no matter how small, I encourage you to vote for me so that town has a clear path to victory tomorrow.
Why is Squigs 100% town?
Look at what happened on D4. You really think he sold out Foxcastle? If he hadn't moved and it was a tie between Bozo and Fox, that would have been the perfect outcome for scum. They would have kept their role blocker to block the tracker. Vecna still would likely have hit bozo and we still would have killed him as the SK so going into N5 the numbers would have been:

Three town, 1 tracker, two mafia

After night they would have been:

Three town, two mafia

and we were in lylo.

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2392 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:44 am

And even more that would have been lylo with me as prime lynch candidate.

In fact, if you go back and check day 4 1 minute after Squigs switched to fox, rdr jumped to Bozo to create the tie again (as I pointed out - thankfully it was too late to be counted). As the tie would have been the perfect scum scenario rdr's move was consistent with him being scum.

Squigs44
Developer
Developer
Posts: 4003
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:50 pm
Location: OKC
Karma: 2010
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2393 Post by Squigs44 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:59 am

Working on a VERY in depth read of flash and rdrivera. Does anyone know if there is a character limit in forum posts?

User avatar
flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3200
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1155
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2394 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:01 am

Not that I am aware of. You are concerned that you may miss part of a message?

Squigs44
Developer
Developer
Posts: 4003
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:50 pm
Location: OKC
Karma: 2010
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2395 Post by Squigs44 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:15 am

Introduction: The following post looks at the two most popular scum-reads left in the game. It evaluates their game based on many things, including play style, vote count analysis, and their interactions with known mafia members. I used the peterbot to do my research, and I apologize if the searches that I did left out any relevant posts. Please point out any corrections you can see. I’m sure I made at least one error somewhere.

A) A look at playstyle

Playstyle is an important part of scum-hunting. This is the primary means of scum-hunting early in the game, before pivotal votes have taken place or scum have flipped. It loses value as the game goes on, as scum that survive deep in the game are typically very good at having a “town” playstyle. However, the playstyles of flash and rdrivera are different, and this gives us information to judge our votes upon.
First, let us look at the playstyle of teacher and foxcastle, the two confirmed mafia. Teacher was a high volume poster or loudmouth, who intended to use his loud mouth to lead the direction of the town where mafia wanted it to go. Foxcastle, on the other hand, was an analytical player. He neither lurked nor dominated the conversation. When he posted, his thoughts were explained and he was careful in all that he did. Typically, a mafia team likes to have a mix of playstyles to get them further in the game. Since different players will associate different playstyles more as scum or more as town (for example, I scumread lurkers more than most and townread high volume and analytical players more than most), a diversification of playstyles helps to protect against these inherent biases. This is a general rule, and by no means applies to all games. Based on this general rule, the remaining member of the mafia team is more likely to be a lurker than not.

Let us begin by discussing Flash’s playstyle. By word count, Flash ranked the following in posts by day: D1 (6/18), N1(4/17), D2 (12/15), N2(7/14), D3 (11/13), N3(11/12) D4 (5/10), N4 (1/9). He began the game as a high volume poster, and then became more quiet as the game progressed, until recently, after Fox died. It appears that Flash began the game as a higher poster, but could have been coached to lay more low (especially with how much townreading he was receiving). He makes a comment on page 46 that preemptively explains his drop in posting: “I think for this period I will mostly listen rather than contribute (again, why bother contributing if your comments are dismissed out of hand? do we actually want new players to join or not?)...then explain myself once the vote comes”. After mafia died, he resumed posting more, as he was no longer being coached and was no longer being townread. His playstyle makes sense to me if he is the last mafia.

Besides the number of words posting, let’s look at the type of posts Flash makes. He makes a sizeable number of posts about game mechanics and non scum-hunting related things early on, which typically is a mafia strategy to avoid lurking while not actually giving town a lot to go off of. He also spent some time defending arguments against himself early in the game. Again, this is a good strategy for mafia to use in order to post without scum-hunting. His vote posts are always accompanied by hedging, which could just be a newer townie not sure of himself. It could also be mafia not wanting to get pinned down on a town lynch. He actually never really posts a reads list, which I hadn’t noticed before. He posts reads on a few people after being prompted on page 76 by fox. Even at end of night 5, when everyone else posted reads lists, he just posted a wall of text for some reason that I didn’t even try to understand. He never commits to anything he is doing, which is actually really scummy.


Now lets look at Rdrivera: Again, by word count, here is Rdriveras ranking: D1 (14/18), N1(13/17), D2 (13/15), N2(5/14), D3 (8/13), N3(9/12) D4 (9/10), N4 (8/9). Rdrivera has been much more consistent. His limited posting is consistent with meta. However, this playstyle would also be very convenient for mafia, as it would be diversified without needing any adjustments.

As for the type of posts Rdrivera makes, he is less analytical and more impression based. Here are a couple quotes from him:
“Some impressions: Brain and Teacher interaction seems weird, forced. I had a town read on both, but I start to believe maybe Brain is SK (this is an explanation for being soo upset, Brain can't win as SK) and maybe Teacher is scum. [...] I still have some slight scumreads on Fox and Bozo that seems to be coasting, but not enough to push their lynch.” (page 45)
“About the worcej, the impression he gave me on D1 was he was just sheeping the majority and hedging about it. His post after the flip is also scummy. And having his only solid scum lean on Peter after voting on webdip is another thing that didn't fit well to me. “ (page 52)
“Well, I did some vote analysis and updated my reads with it and also with my overall impression of the remaining players.” (page 119)
As you can see, he likes to use the word impression. His reads and playstyle match this word fetish. He gives short reasoning when posting, and comments on others playstyles more than anything else. He does give more detailed reads lists on pages 76 and 119. Overall, I think this again matches his meta, but would be convenient for mafia. Impression based reads are easier to hide behind as scum, because they are more opinion based, and are easier to write off if they are wrong. You also run a smaller risk of being inconsistent.

The one plus for rdrivera in playstyle is his constant questioning of other players. This questioning got other players to respond and interact, which is good for town.

Based only on playstyle, Rdrivera appears to be more townie than Flash. However, Rdrivera is more experienced and I think he could easily outplay Flash in this category no matter what the alignments are.

B) Vote Count Analysis

Vote count analysis is one of the most powerful tools in this game. Anyone can say whatever they want, but when it comes down to it, mafia and town will vote differently. Town vote for their top scum reads (or whichever wagon they think is more scummy), whereas scum will either protect their teammates, bus them (as Fox did to teacher), or laugh at us town as we contemplate whether we want to lynch BB or Jamie.

D1 voting: Flash’s vote bounces around a lot. He follows BB onto Fox at one point, and ends on thedip as the 8th vote. Rdrivera waits to vote, and places it on fox for “coasting” and “hedging”. At end of day he votes thedip as number 6 to help put that wagon away. Not much useful information gathered here.

D2: Flash begins with his vote on Vec, and doesn’t move it until he goes to teacher as the 8th vote when it was 7-6. If he is scum, then he isn’t going to tie the vote up at 7 as that would look super bad on his part. Bussing would really be his only option. Town Flash would also likely vote teacher at this point, to avoid the tie. Makes sense to me either way. Flash does move his vote from teacher to jamie at the end of the day. Could this be an attempt to save teacher? He would have left himself very vulnerable to a scum read, which would not have fit with the rest of his play if he were scum. If he is scum, he was playing for the deep game, and this move doesn’t look good for the deep game. I think he would have rather taken the hit with teacher and gotten the towncred from the bus.
Rdrivera begins with his vote on Fox again. He votes teacher when it is 5-4 in favor of peter. This would be a hard bus for rdrivera. Unless he thought that Fox would tip it back in favor of peter in which case he could stay on teacher with a possibility that teacher is not lynched. Instead, Fox follows Rdrivera onto teacher. Perhaps Fox saw a teammate bussing and decided that they should go all in on the bus. At this point, neither Fox nor Rdrivera could switch off of teacher, and the fate was sealed.

D3: Flash started on Brainbomb. He moved from BB to jamie when the vote was 7-5 to make it 8-4. This is consistent with his other voting, in that he joined the lead wagon late. The fact that he did this when it was two townies on the wagon gives some consistency to his play, and helps explain his other votes a little. Rdrivera starts on worcej, then unvotes and finally settles on BB to make it 5-5 from 5-4. This is also consistent with his other voting. This comes a few votes after Fox’s vote on BB. Again, Fox and Rdrivera vote together.

D4: Flash votes me then bismarck and finally bozo. Again, he is following others when voting, and comes to a top wagon as one of the later votes. In this case, he is voting on the counter wagon to fox, but his vote comes before fox’s wagon has more than two votes. Rdrivera votes Fox when it is 3-2 in favor of bozo. For the third time, he ties up two leading wagons with his vote. This would be a second hard bus of a teammate. He also attempted to switch from fox to bozo right at the end. It was a post “to break the tie”, which is very plausible, as he likely didn’t see my post before drafting his own. However, his post came after the deadline, which could have been on purpose. Without my vote, a late switch by rdrivera would have left it tied, and fox would have lived. This is just a theory, and rdrivera could have legitimately have just missed the deadline as I did during D2. Looking at Fox’s vote, he had a quick vote on Flash near the end of the day that was very odd. I think that much as Fox cursed at me to draw attention to me, he voted for Flash as an attempt to draw attention to Flash. That is WIFOM though.

It is very very interesting to me that regardless of who the wagons were, Flash consistently moved onto the top wagon near the end of the day, and rdrivera consistently made a vote that tied the two lead wagons. After looking at all of this, I come to a similar conclusion as I did looking at their playstyles. Flash’s voting has a more scummy look than rdrivera’s since he hedges and jumps on bandwagons with little commitment, but with how experienced rdrivera is, I can easily see him as scum trying to position himself perfectly in every vote.

C) Interactions with known mafia

Much as a scums vote is influenced by his knowledge of who his teammates are, his interactions with his teammates will be different than his interactions with town members. All of their reads are forced and fabricated, since they know who the real mafia are, so their knowledge will seep into their reads no matter how hard they try to obfuscate that knowledge (did I use obfuscate correctly here?). The trick is to find those influences, and how to ignore the red herrings that they left.

First up, Flash and teacher. Flash literally mentions teacher twice before teacher died. Once was a vote without an explanation. The second was to call out jamie for switching his vote. So Flash didn’t provide any commentary on teacher whatsoever. Teacher gives flash a slight town for posting a lot. He comments on Flash’s math. Gives end of night reads and says the following about Flash: “Flash​: Last, and least necessary, joiner to the wagon, so treating as if on Brain. Flash, why did you feel the need to switch especially given how hard your views were? Besides that, I had nothing to dislike about your play or change my initial reaction, though you did become less involved as it felt like the game was heating up. What timezone are you in? Heavy townlean.” (page 38). I doubt Teacher would give a teammate a heavy townlean, considering he gave fox a null-scum lean.

Next, Flash and Fox. Again, Flash doesn’t really mention fox until his famous “It all hinges on you Fox” comment in the crunchtime of Fox’s lynch. Super suspicious that he avoids all interactions with the two known mafia. Fox originally townreads flash, but changes his read during day 2 to “not liking this progression” (page 50). He gives another read of flash on page 74 that looks innocent “Flash—Probably town. Engaged and eager, though I would like to see more reads and some cases built for your votes. The last minute vote on thedipplayer on Day 1, and the willingness to joke-vote Vecna as potentially your final vote if you didn't make it back for EOD give me pause, but my gut reaction is that they weren't calculated in malice”.

Teacher and rdrivera: Page 45 rdrivera gives a scum read on teacher for a “forced” interaction with Brain. Calls out Fox for defending teacher (page 52). Votes for teacher as a preference over peter. Nothing too out of the ordinary here, except that page 52 post. This looks a lot like a signal from rdrivera to fox to stop protecting teacher. It’s as if he is saying “Why are you so openly defending Teacher?” while thinking “Thats gonna get you caught later”. Very scummy comment in my opinion. Page 14, teacher gives rdrivera a null read. In his updated page 38 reads, gives rdrivera a “scum-lean”. This would be consistent with their plan to distance themselves from each other.

Fox and rdrivera: Rdrivera scumread fox the whole game and consistently voted for him. Hardbus if they are teammates. Although this would be consistent with a distancing plan for that scumteam. Fox gives rdrivera a town lean on page 74, which slips to a null lean on page 100. Nothing too interesting there.

As far as interactions with known mafia go, Flash is looking pretty suspicious for basically ignoring both of the known mafia until after they were dead. Rdrivera’s interactions would make sense if the mafia team was trying to all bus each other. The comment rdrivera made to fox about defending teacher is looking very scummy.

Conclusion

I guess this whole post would be pointless if I didn’t draw some conclusions to everything. The case for flash being mafia is that he was an uncommitted player looking to make a deep run into the end game. His playstyle, voting, and interactions are all consistent with that case, except for his vote on jamie. The case for rdrivera being mafia is that he laid low and distanced himself from his teammates. This included heavy bussing, a reminder to fox to not protect teacher, and the use of his meta to be a low poster.

Logically, my brain is telling me that there are more strikes against Flash than there are against Rdrivera. But my gut is telling me that Flash is just a new player who didn’t ever gain confidence in his reads because he was frustrated that he didn’t know anything, and that rdrivera is the experienced player that cautiously played everything exactly how he was supposed to.

Luckily, the town has two more lynches, and both can be lynched. My next task (which I will do tomorrow evening) is to examine damo and worcej to see if they really are towncleared, or if they at least look more townie than flash and rdrivera.

Since I do have to choose between the two in my vote, I will go with my gut and ##vote rdrivera for now.

rdrivera2005
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 7440
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:17 pm
Location: Porto Alegre, Brasil
Karma: 2825
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2396 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:27 am

flash2015 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:17 am
Squigs44 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:44 am
Rdrivera is right, flash. If you are town you shouldn't just roll over. At least make a case on Rdrivera if you are that confident he is scum. Preferably you would look at all of the players still in the game and evaluate them as well. Also, as we post cases against you, defend yourself. Just rolling over and giving up does not help town. Working on finding scum is always what is best for town.
That being said, I'm home from work now and should be able to put together comprehensive reads on everyone left now that I'm not on mobile.
Again, there are only two possible scum left in the game, me and rdr. It is a process of elimination. I don't see any other possibility unless you ignore the tracker (as I have said, I have town cleared you). Do you see another possibility? Are you going to ignore the tracker? Don't let rdr mess with your head!

My history is out there. I have explained my actions on D4. If I didn't trust Vecna my actions were logical,. But if you don't believe that and you believe I am scum I must have been playing a blinder up until then as I was widely town read (I wish I was that good).

Anyway damo and worcej seem pretty darn convinced I am scum and I don't believe that will change. As I have been clear and consistent on all game, the worst thing for town is to potentially have a tie, which could happen if you vote for rdr and damo/worcej still vote for me. If me and rdr are both alive tomorrow, there is a big chance that town loses. I don't want us to be in that position.

This is not reverse psychology or WIFOM. Just like Peter and Vecna did, I am willing take one for the team to allow town to win. If you have any doubts on me at all or if you believe there is any risk of a tie no matter how small, I encourage you to vote for me so that town has a clear path to victory tomorrow.
Flash, I am not trying to descredit the Tracker, just pointing it's a weaker role as can't be sure of his reads, as he can Track a scum and he didn't visit. It's not a forced possibility, if you look the past games, Fox won a game for scum where Tracker tracked him twice, didn't see nothing and both times his partner Dargo were doing the killing. Fox was considered clear and won the game.

Squigs, I just can't read all that text now. Going to sleep and will read and answer tomorrow.

damo666
Posts: 17115
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5609
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2397 Post by damo666 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:41 am

It seems that Bismarck knows Worcej and I town and is just guessing between the other 3. I initially voted Flash because Bismarck put him at Day 6 with the other 2 at Day 7. I don't think he is doing this with knowledge just feel and read.

Now, unless Flash's impassioned pleading and offer of self sacrifice is a brilliant last ditch hollywood attemp at a scum victory, I think voting rdrivera is a better bet.

If rdr flips town then yynch flash tomorrow (I am assuming Squiggs town, if not then well played).

So ##VOTE Rdrivera

damo666
Posts: 17115
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5609
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2398 Post by damo666 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:45 am

##end

damo666
Posts: 17115
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5609
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2399 Post by damo666 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:46 am

Squigs end this now before rdr can get back on

And/or worcej change vote and end

Squigs44
Developer
Developer
Posts: 4003
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:50 pm
Location: OKC
Karma: 2010
Contact:

Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#2400 Post by Squigs44 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:32 am

Woah, woah, woah. Don't end this yet. If Damo or Worcej are somehow scum, then of course they would want an end vote. Let's look at all of this thoroughly before jumping to conclusions.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aristocrat, CaptainFritz28, TheMadMonarch and 625 guests