MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[BancroftS]

So, Bancroft, it sounds like you don't believe sheep's RB claim. Do you think mafia chose not to roleblock, and why?
You say nobody has convinced you they are town, is this because you don't believe teacher2's claim or because it doesn't count as convincing when you claim and there is confirmation by lack of counterclaim (which, by the way, should be complete now, since I'm pretty sure everyone has been active since then)?

Phil - I don’t believe teacher2’s claim. I think he’s playing a smart game, and taking advantage of the newbiness of almost all of us! Originally, I had teacher down as a solid town... but following the reading of his posts, there’s just something about trying too hard! Therefore I’m actually going to change my vote to ##VOTETeacher2

[sheepsaysmeep]

if i were mafia and the day ended with like everyone hard scumreading me except like 2 people then i would never holster the roleblock to try to half clear me over maybe blocking a pr read

[phil_a_s]

Phil - I don’t believe teacher2’s claim. I think he’s playing a smart game, and taking advantage of the newbiness of almost all of us! Originally, I had teacher down as a solid town... but following the reading of his posts, there’s just something about trying too hard! Therefore I’m actually going to change my vote to ##VOTETeacher2

Interesting. Why has teacher2 not been counterclaimed by the real docsave (or, if there was no NK target, the PR) yet, in your scenario?

[phil_a_s]

Also, since sheep is here and reminded me, Bancroft, you also don't believe sheep's roleblock claim, right? Why? Is sheep also being clever and duping the town like teacher2?

[worcej]

@phil - responses:

1. I am not ignoring WIFOM, I think I put those WIFOM options in my post and explained why I choose to move past that. I think it's important to go based off reads/evidence. A lot has happened that can point us in different directions if we stay in the 'WIFOM-loop'.
2. I listed my possible doctors because I am trying to justify what happened on N1, because it all seems weird. I think both scum and doctor made 'noob' moves that thankfully worked out. It narrows my list of potential PRs down to an uncomfortable point: That I think between xy4, Bancroft, and myself there is a scum and then potentially the doctor, but teacher2 can be put into that list as well. Is that PR hunting by pointing that out? I didn't intend it to be, but I wanted to stress we may screw ourselves over by mis-lynching our doctor right now because (again, predicated on teacher2's claim) teacher2 is most likely the next NK because he will not be savable - I can't find it written here, but I assume the doctor cannot save the same person each night? ##Call GM to confirm please.
3. You seem to be pointing at each of my options and calling out the possible WIFOM situations. In regards to the misdirection, I am trying to avoid putting the 'Sheep is bored and hates webDilpo' Mafia rules' read, which leads me to his reactions are intentional right now. I choose to see that as misdirection, what other way would you interpret that?
4. I don't think xy4 is the only scum buddy for sheep, but he is my leading scum buddy analysis based on the posts around sheep's blowups followed closely by Bancroft. If I am assuming sheep is misdirecting, I take into account that his actions are purposeful and trying to draw distance via argument is a potential option.
5. So you're not getting what I have subtly tried to say earlier regarding Bancroft (because you seem to read my intentions constantly through scum eyes), so I'll be more blunt to you phil and for everyone else so they also get what I was trying to imply: I think Bancroft is the doctor. That is why I am leaning towards xy4 first based on my reads so far this game - they both seem to be dodgy and I think Bancroft's is to not get lynched since he is trying to stay alive for as long as possible and not completely expose himself to the scum team.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

The doctor cannot save the same target on consecutive nights.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.3

BancroftS (4) - Sheepsaysmeep, Teacher2, xy4, Yavuzovic
Worcej (2) - DrCJG, Phil_a_s
xy4 (1) - Worcej
Teacher2 (1) - BancroftS

Currently BancroftS is set to be lynched.

Phase ends TOMORROW at 11pm BST

[phil_a_s]

I am not ignoring WIFOM, I think I put those WIFOM options in my post and explained why I choose to move past that. I think it's important to go based off reads/evidence. A lot has happened that can point us in different directions if we stay in the 'WIFOM-loop'.

You made your pool of suspects "whoever teacher2 suspected, because teacher2 was definitely NK'd because he was reading someone accurately". I'm not sure why the possibility of teacher2 being NK'd simply for being obv!town got dismissed entirely. That said, I would not be surprised if a pool of 4 people among 8 happened to contain at least one of the mafia.

For the next part, I will editorialize a bit.

[...]I think between xy4, Bancroft, and myself there is a scum and then potentially the doctor, but teacher2 can be put into that list as well. Is that PR hunting by pointing that out? [...]

Editor's note: Pretty much.

[...] I think Bancroft is the doctor. [...]

Editor's note: Definitely.

I choose to see [sheep's behavior] as misdirection, what other way would you interpret that?

If sheep was trying to misdirect onto another wagon, then looking for scum only in the pool of alternative wagons is a terrible idea. If anything, sheep would be less likely to misdirect into an alternative wagon if chances were, his buddy would end up on the chopping block anyway. I don't know if he's misdirecting or not. For now I believe the RB claim, so I don't think he is, but that doesn't matter right now. What matters is that your conclusions make no logical sense.

I think Bancroft's is to not get lynched since he is trying to stay alive for as long as possible and not completely expose himself to the scum team.

Good job on that one. When teacher2 thought someone under threat of lynch was a doctor, he didn't immediately start hinting at it in a comically obvious manner, instead he wrote a post outlining his reasons, waited until somewhere around EoD (first making sure people would be around to see it), and when it looked like his doc suspect would get lynched, he published it.

[phil_a_s]

One last thing. While reading the worcej response I was criticizing, I reread the N1 analysis. I found some more confusing bits.

The only way this theory breaks down for me is if teacher2 is mafia and this claiming strategy is an attempt to bait out the PR, but this would be unconfirmed either way and highly unlikely to result in success because if there is a doctor, they would know it is false. I think it's also way too risky this early to try if he was mafia, since you have a 50/50 shot of it blowing up in your face and revealing scum intention.

Here, it's not entirely clear what worcej imagines happening in this hypothetical scenario. The "if there is a doctor" and 50/50 shot parts seem to imply that worcej thinks a cop would not be able to figure out why there is no NK, even though the cop knows there is no doc? It's also unclear whether worcej thinks that the PR should reveal if this is the case.

Again, submitting a non-kill would be an 'advanced' strategy. This would take someone that has some experience to lead the scum team down that path. Based on game-activity and information presented, that would have to come from the following:

1. phil (a town lean for me)
2. sheep (a scum lean for me)
3. DrCJG (a null lean for me)
4. yavu (a null lean for me)

I put xy4, Bancrofts, and myself in the 'too noob to do list' and teacher2 off the list due to confirmed town based on above theories. Again, my leading suspicion at the start of this theory was the scum 'missed' their kill due to a doctor.[/list]

So, in the hypothetical scenario (which has already been dismissed, but ok) where there was no NK attempt, and teacher2's claim is fake (in order to bait the PR?), worcej thinks there is definitely an experienced player on the team "to lead the scum team down that path". But teacher2's claim is fake in this scenario. There already is an experienced scum player, that player being teacher2. This seems like a fairly basic logic error here.

How did this happen? How did worcej (apparently) forget the premise of his own hypothetical?

[yavuzovic]

Sheep was so aggressively active in D1. I don't see he is like this today. This might be real life business or site crash might effect him. But he seemed like barely posting.

[teacher2]

So the only two off the wagons are the targets? Interesting. I’m feeling pretty good we are in the right place.

@yavuz I’d still like you to respond to the questions in my reaction post.

@worcej I echo Phil’s questions.

@bancroft if you’re being honest, I am sorry for whatever is going on and hope it works out. If you’re scum, I’d still like the readslist please.

[teacher2]

Alright fellas time to get serious. I will be permabanned very soon. I am appealing ofc but just to let you all know in case I disappear. I haven't done anything wrong and I hope I can convince the mods before it actually happens. It's probs a good idea that Jamie sees this too so ##CALL GM

If you’re town you want to provide updated thoughts before you go?

And don’t let the door hit you on your way out with that shade at the mods who volunteer to run a hobby site for our benefit.

[teacher2]

FInally, @bancroft, since the deadline is a Sunday and others aren’t as addicted as me, the only way I might unvote you is if you claim PR 12 hours before the deadline to allow time for counterclaims.

[yavuzovic]

A Reactions post. Im not doing a reads post til we get another flip.

##CALL GM Are we notified of being saved if the doctor saves us?

What are the town motivations to this question given the then-current board state? I intentionally concealed the answer when proposing my doc hypo for this reason.

All is according to votings.

Youve focused on the Damo wagon heavily, but never mentioned Phil or Worcej at all. Id really like you to discuss those too. (postdraft – OK, so Phil?)

1) I just wondered, I don't know how to answer. Hm, I probably wondered if I was attacked. I really don't know. (I didn't understand the second sentence, what answer - I couldn't connect it with your question.)

2) When I don't have an idea, I follow others. They might have done it like me. Yes, I created my arguments on damo wagon, but I'm away from my computer and I can't focus on the game - my good posts are usually written with computer. I don't know I don't remember. I will reread votes in D1.

[worcej]

@phil - So far on D2, you're looking at EVERYTHING I am writing as negative and not trying to promote dialogue, you're just framing me and trying to put intent in my message that isn't there. Every point I am trying to make, you're criticizing and pointing towards the negative without considering the positives like you did on D1.

Questions for you phil, since all you're doing is asking others yet no one is coming after you:

1. Why are you running me up suddenly after D1/N1? On D1 you asked me a lot of questions and I responded and that was okay and my arguments were reasonable. Now, you're coming after every possible negative nugget you can find in me - even pointing out any and all the WIFOM arguments that you can find. It seems pretty forced and heavy handed right now.
2. How am I PR hunting by listing it out who I think doctor is? The point I was trying to ultimately make kept being ignored by you and you're slapping me with only the scum reads.
3. You yourself have already said that teacher2 is obv!town in post #409, why are you coming after me because I am agreeing with you and going with that at the start of my posts? You provided no context as to why he is obv!town in your post, so why throw shade here and expect me to not comment that back at you.
4. What are your reads right now phil? You're being very reactionary to posts and it's coming off as 'tying the noose' around others to hang them without putting forward any arguments on your end. To me, that's a pretty good job lurking - ask all the questions and no one pushing back on you.
5. Why are you giving me crap for being a noob and being 'comically obvious'? Your last post comparing me to teacher2 and how he's better at this game is kind of a dick move. Yeah, I am not as good as him and this is my first mafia game, but this again continues the obvious negatively you are throwing my way on D2.

Now to respond to this last round of 'phil grills me and others echo his statements':

1. I think going for obv!town that early in the game is silly. Is it possible? Yes, I am not dismissing that, but going for non-obv town can be helpful too.
2. My point was that I doubt teacher2 falseclaimed his doctor save. If he is mafia, then the PR immediately knows that's fake. No one has even moved teacher2 from obv!town to null other than Bancroft and I think if he goes and is the PR, then the teacher2 mafia theory becomes much more possible. But with the facts present, I am inclined to believe teacher2 is obv!town.
3. Using the same WIFOM argument logic you're constantly using on me, it's just as possible sheep knows that we'd think he would avoid his mafia target, so he got more passionate directly at that person. This is why I think it's stupid to just grill people on the WIFOM - it's not that we don't know it exists, it's just we are choosing to go the other way based on assumptions we've made so far in the game.
4. You argue my conclusions make no logical sense seems forced and with little warrant because you're cherry picking what to comment on and trying to frame me without going towards the argument. Other than taking selective phrases out of my posts, take a moment and read the whole theory. I stated I believe we have a doctor and mafia 'screwed up' N1, thus teacher2 is confirmed town, went down why would they go after him (must be his reads), added the WIFOM condition of scum teacher2 but dismissed it and gave my reasons, added the noob doctor because I do believe that to be the case, thus I am concerned of a Bancroft wagon, and went with my continued scum read on sheep/xy4, but decided to test my theory by voting for xy4 instead of sheep.

So I'll say screw my previous reads, phil you're wagoning me hard and I think it's intentional to distract the rest of the town. I am going with ##vote phil, because you're apparent change from D1 to D2 seems forceful and an attempt to run a towny into the ground to make up for the slip on N1. Go ahead and start defending phil, you're turn on the hot seat.

[yavuzovic]

##VOTE phil_a_s

@xy4 how experienced are you? I don't think a mafia would vote without saying anything in their first game.

[teacher2]

##end.

Still want a response but fine w this too.

[yavuzovic]

xy4 (2) - phil_a_s, DrCJG
BancroftS (2) - Teacher2, Sheepsaysmeep
Sheepsaysmeep (1) - BancroftS
Damo666 (1) - Worcej
DrCJG (1) - xy4
No Lynch (1) - Damo666

After this point, you came to damo lynch - which makes Worcej suspect. But I actually don't think the first vote makes a wagon a real wagon.

Okay yknow what? I’m going to vote Damo now. ##VOTE Damo666. I’ve effectively hired a man to come and excecute me on the spot, since I have an unrivalled 3 votes, but call me brave or stupid, that’s my decision. It’s up to the rest of you to sort who gets lynched if anybody. I’ll keep watching the chat for a bit.

xy is kind of scummy here. What are your thoughts? Wait teacher, I want to hear from xy before EoD.

[phil_a_s]

Why are you running me up suddenly after D1/N1?

Because I think you're scum. I thought it was plausible during D1/N1, but I also found your defense plausible. Now, well, my suspect pool has shrunk a bit and you happen to make for an excellent team with Bancroft.

How am I PR hunting by listing it out who I think doctor is? The point I was trying to ultimately make kept being ignored by you and you're slapping me with only the scum reads.

You are PR hunting by shrinking the pool of possible doctors, and publicly stating who you think is the doctor, well in advance of EoD.

You yourself have already said that teacher2 is obv!town in post #409, why are you coming after me because I am agreeing with you and going with that at the start of my posts? You provided no context as to why he is obv!town in your post, so why throw shade here and expect me to not comment that back at you.

I never scumread you for saying that teacher2 is town. I questioned your line of reasoning, because it was confusing.

What are your reads right now phil? You're being very reactionary to posts and it's coming off as 'tying the noose' around others to hang them without putting forward any arguments on your end. To me, that's a pretty good job lurking - ask all the questions and no one pushing back on you.

My current top scumteam is you and Bancroft. I think DrCJG and sheep are highly likely to be town. xy4 and yavuz I'm uncertain on. I'm going to try to give more detailed reads tomorrow.

Why are you giving me crap for being a noob and being 'comically obvious'? Your last post comparing me to teacher2 and how he's better at this game is kind of a dick move. Yeah, I am not as good as him and this is my first mafia game, but this again continues the obvious negatively you are throwing my way on D2.

Sorry, what I meant is that you had been given a fairly clear procedure to follow (teacher2 made what he was doing explicit, including the part about it being a pre-written post that was only publicized later. I didn't intend to be mean, but I see I was, and that's uncalled for.

I think going for obv!town that early in the game is silly. Is it possible? Yes, I am not dismissing that, but going for non-obv town can be helpful too.

See this is what I meant with WIFOM. You decide to limit your search to teacher2's N1 scumreads on the grounds that teacher2 was killed because he was onto scum on the grounds that scum wouldn't want to kill an obv!town just for being obv!town. It's not that it's WIFOM, it's that your WIFOM is inconsistent and arbitrary (and seems to benefit Bancroft).

My point was that I doubt teacher2 falseclaimed his doctor save. If he is mafia, then the PR immediately knows that's fake. No one has even moved teacher2 from obv!town to null other than Bancroft and I think if he goes and is the PR, then the teacher2 mafia theory becomes much more possible. But with the facts present, I am inclined to believe teacher2 is obv!town.

I never suggested otherwise? I was interrogating your reasoning, which appears to now be different from what it was before. Where did the 50/50 shot part come from?

Using the same WIFOM argument logic you're constantly using on me, it's just as possible sheep knows that we'd think he would avoid his mafia target, so he got more passionate directly at that person. This is why I think it's stupid to just grill people on the WIFOM - it's not that we don't know it exists, it's just we are choosing to go the other way based on assumptions we've made so far in the game.

You determine your lynch targets with pure WIFOM. I say that's bad. You think if sheep is mafia, then his buddy is one of the people he's trying to get lynched instead of himself. You defend that reasoning with WIFOM.

You argue my conclusions make no logical sense seems forced and with little warrant because you're cherry picking what to comment on and trying to frame me without going towards the argument.

Sometimes when I ask you a question it's not as evidence you're scum. Sometimes it's just a question.

Other than taking selective phrases out of my posts, take a moment and read the whole theory. I stated I believe we have a doctor and mafia 'screwed up' N1, thus teacher2 is confirmed town, went down why would they go after him (must be his reads), added the WIFOM condition of scum teacher2 but dismissed it and gave my reasons, added the noob doctor because I do believe that to be the case, thus I am concerned of a Bancroft wagon, and went with my continued scum read on sheep/xy4, but decided to test my theory by voting for xy4 instead of sheep.

It's the assumption that the reason to go after teacher2 that's WIFOM. Scum teacher2 is not WIFOM, because teacher2 made a concrete, falsifiable claim, one which we have consensus should be counterclaimed if it is false. Since it has not been counterclaimed, it is as close to confirmed as humanly possible.

So I'll say screw my previous reads, phil you're wagoning me hard and I think it's intentional to distract the rest of the town. I am going with ##vote phil, because you're apparent change from D1 to D2 seems forceful and an attempt to run a towny into the ground to make up for the slip on N1. Go ahead and start defending phil, you're turn on the hot seat.

I'm curious, who are likely partners for me?

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.4

BancroftS (4) - Sheepsaysmeep, Teacher2(END), xy4, Yavuzovic
Worcej (2) - DrCJG, Phil_a_s
phil_as_s (1) - Worcej
Teacher2 (1) - BancroftS

Currently BancroftS is set to be lynched.

Phase ends TOMORROW at 11pm BST