Mafia 86: Accidents Happen... - Game Thread

[Frogsterking]

No ideally I don't think, but he would not want to risk town getting another DK.

This doesn't make any sense.

What part?

This isn't the group of players I would take with me to an endgame, especially if I am calculating multiple day phases in advance as would be required by your rationale as to why I would bus sweetandcool. Surely on some level you have to recognize the chance that both of us were brought to this F4 because we have bad reads.

[bozotheclown]

That doesn't make any sense?

Why, the GF is not any good if he gets DKed D2.

The joint probability of all the things you are assuming is really low. You are assuming I have an omnipresent scum range (which doesn't exist and you have no evidence actually exists), you are assuming that I--for no apparent reason--calculated the next couple day phases based on how D1 was going and came to a conclusion that sweetandcool was going to die 100% to a hypothetical town flash wagon and that I then somehow decided that my omnipresent scum range you've never seen was best used in the situation to make sure sweet died immediately instead of forcing town to actually find them and organize a flash wagon. That's why the justification that "I thought sweetandcool was under too much pressure" makes no sense. It doesn't lol.

That is just a guess as to why you would bus sweetandcool, but it does not matter any more because the mafia bussing the GF D1 is a known fact at this point.

What is the probability that the mafia who successfully bussed the GF D1 would decide bussing his remaining teammate D2 was a good idea?

[Frogsterking]

I was all prepared to vote Frog and now I'm thrown.

Good. We should all be thrown. @bozotheclown unvote and actually consider why us 4 would be alive right now. Also, there is more I can address on your post-chaqa tunnel.

[damo666]

@Frog what was the rationale behind your vanity vote on Chaqa at T-3 D2 when the wagons were Ham 3 Bun 3 brain 3 ?

[bozotheclown]

This doesn't make any sense.

What part?

This isn't the group of players I would take with me to an endgame, especially if I am calculating multiple day phases in advance as would be required by your rationale as to why I would bus sweetandcool. Surely on some level you have to recognize the chance that both of us were brought to this F4 because we have bad reads.

I know I have had bad reads this game, yet someone tried to NK me 2 times already because dargorygel cleared me and having a clear around is not ideal for mafia. Regardless of how we got to N6, the mafia RBing and DKing the player they thought was the doctor was the best option, because it was the only way to guarantee a NK.

[Frogsterking]

Why, the GF is not any good if he gets DKed D2.

The joint probability of all the things you are assuming is really low. You are assuming I have an omnipresent scum range (which doesn't exist and you have no evidence actually exists), you are assuming that I--for no apparent reason--calculated the next couple day phases based on how D1 was going and came to a conclusion that sweetandcool was going to die 100% to a hypothetical town flash wagon and that I then somehow decided that my omnipresent scum range you've never seen was best used in the situation to make sure sweet died immediately instead of forcing town to actually find them and organize a flash wagon. That's why the justification that "I thought sweetandcool was under too much pressure" makes no sense. It doesn't lol.

That is just a guess as to why you would bus sweetandcool, but it does not matter any more because the mafia bussing the GF D1 is a known fact at this point.

What is the probability that the mafia who successfully bussed the GF D1 would decide bussing his remaining teammate D2 was a good idea?

That's an interesting question. The expected value of a play like that is really low, I've known that since high school. No matter how much town cred you get you can lose to a random cop that doesn't trust you, a bad endgame configuration of roles, a bad endgame configuration of scumhunters. It's a noob strategy. My instinct is to say that would make the probability of the 2nd bus LOWER, but humans don't work that way. You have players who like bussing and may be inclined to bus again because they aren't thinking ahead. That means the chances of the final scum slot being a serial busser who misplayed is higher than we would expect based on making the "right" plays.

[Frogsterking]

@Frog what was the rationale behind your vanity vote on Chaqa at T-3 D2 when the wagons were Ham 3 Bun 3 brain 3 ?

I explained part of it already:

The problem is that I do not believe you really scum read me, I believe that you are acting.

So you think I’m scum? Why wouldnt i stick to my scum read of chaqa and town read of you and join you on chaqa?

IDK IDK

I had no clue wtf was going on.

[damo666]

That was a risk since if Bunny was VT doc could claim so scum must have somehow sussed Bunny was doc. Will preparing his doccrumb which would have had no chance of being seen looks manufactured for this reason.

##vote Just

Final Answer

Why do you think Just bussed Hamilton D2?

Yeah that's tricky.

Don't know why Will would vote for ham when he did considering Bunny would be bound to switch. Maybe he gambled Bunny was more likely to go with the fall back of town cred. Maybe Ham's sacrificial move to Frog was to give Will towncred.

[bozotheclown]

I was all prepared to vote Frog and now I'm thrown.

Good. We should all be thrown. @bozotheclown unvote and actually consider why us 4 would be alive right now. Also, there is more I can address on your post-chaqa tunnel.

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

[Frogsterking]

@Frog what was the rationale behind your vanity vote on Chaqa at T-3 D2 when the wagons were Ham 3 Bun 3 brain 3 ?

I explained part of it already:

So you think I’m scum? Why wouldnt i stick to my scum read of chaqa and town read of you and join you on chaqa?

IDK IDK

I had no clue wtf was going on.

Oh on D2. Basically the same as D3 except I had more of a thought behind it on D2:

Gonna grace us with your opinion froggy?

Yeah, I think we can tell that scum are being town read somewhat due to the low consensus. It feels like today is a day we take a pot shot on a null slot.

##vote chaqa

There was this one game I fucked up all my reads and found out in the spec chat scum were in some really random slots that were getting strongly townread by a minority of people. That game was all chaotic and weird and the EoD2 was reminding me of that game. A player named Joy told me they inferred during that game something like that was happening and I thought that was cool. That's what I was thinking of when I voted chaqa D2.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Why do you think damo bussed Hamilton D2?

I guess. I just don’t believe damo could throw this hard at F4

I do not understand your answer.

I thought it was “Why, do you think he bussed?”

But I think he bussed to milk credit. And maybe buddy me because he seems to have taken my lead in D1 and D 2

[damo666]

I was all prepared to vote Frog and now I'm thrown.

Good. We should all be thrown. @bozotheclown unvote and actually consider why us 4 would be alive right now. Also, there is more I can address on your post-chaqa tunnel.

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

Which could have been any of us (3). I just can't decide if Will's docplay was dumbtown or sneakyscum.

[Frogsterking]

What a weird game

[Frogsterking]

I was all prepared to vote Frog and now I'm thrown.

Good. We should all be thrown. @bozotheclown unvote and actually consider why us 4 would be alive right now. Also, there is more I can address on your post-chaqa tunnel.

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

Okay, how do I use that information then?

[bozotheclown]

You don't have to talk about me like I'm not here; that's how you got tunneled in the first place lol. I am going back on desktop so I can respond to the other thing you noticed. This conclusion about "more or less likely" you are only arriving at because you are assuming a priori that I am scum. There is no evidence against my slot which doesn't get shredded by logic.

The thing all of your scum!frog posts are missing: you can deduce that the final scum player has a good enough range so you need to figure out what would motivate a scum player with a good range to vote out the godfather D1. There is only one theory posited in this game which resolves this.

Which theory is that?

The one that just got eliminated by the night kill LOL. Oh well I can still answer your questions about my own play.

Now that we know BunnyGo was town, why do you think Hamilton voted for you D2 EOD?

[bozotheclown]

Good. We should all be thrown. @bozotheclown unvote and actually consider why us 4 would be alive right now. Also, there is more I can address on your post-chaqa tunnel.

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

Which could have been any of us (3). I just can't decide if Will's docplay was dumbtown or sneakyscum.

I am not sure I follow why you think it would be a good play as mafia.

[bozotheclown]

Good. We should all be thrown. @bozotheclown unvote and actually consider why us 4 would be alive right now. Also, there is more I can address on your post-chaqa tunnel.

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

Okay, how do I use that information then?

I don't think it makes any of the 3 of you any more or less likely.

[damo666]

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

Which could have been any of us (3). I just can't decide if Will's docplay was dumbtown or sneakyscum.

I am not sure I follow why you think it would be a good play as mafia.

So he could say "Oh shit I was trying to draw the NK" if the hit was successful and say nothing if it was.

[damo666]

I am not going to unvote but I am not going to hammer.

I think I know why we are the 4 left, it is because BunnyGo correctly predicted I would be the NK N3 and N5, the mafia was not sure who the doctor was, and the mafia then determined BunnyGo was most likely to be the doctor by N6.

Okay, how do I use that information then?

I don't think it makes any of the 3 of you any more or less likely.

Agreed. That's why I find Will's doc play curious. Why narrow the field as town, it wasn't gonna be believed (The not docs).

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Which could have been any of us (3). I just can't decide if Will's docplay was dumbtown or sneakyscum.

I am not sure I follow why you think it would be a good play as mafia.

So he could say "Oh shit I was trying to draw the NK" if the hit was successful and say nothing if it was.

Did you mean ‘was not’?