Mafia 86: Accidents Happen... - Game Thread

[damo666]

Okay that sucks; I wanted to ask questions before posting my reads list and stuff. The important thing is that we need to stop dicking around and kill sweet. I'll post this part and hopefully that will be enough:

Damo is town probably based on their posts and my interactions with them in M85.

Sweet is really polarized and easy to read as scum, even without meta, which is mainly how I'm reading them now (without meta.) It's not that complicated at all to find them as scum.

The town block is Will-ghug-damo-frog, all town all on sweet!scum or throwing.

Plus points for Frog

[damo666]

##vote sweet

Damo votes me. Susses me. Then sheep’s me twice.

Could this be Bunny annoyed he's got trapped?

[bozotheclown]

Okay that sucks; I wanted to ask questions before posting my reads list and stuff. The important thing is that we need to stop dicking around and kill sweet. I'll post this part and hopefully that will be enough:

Damo is town probably based on their posts and my interactions with them in M85.

Sweet is really polarized and easy to read as scum, even without meta, which is mainly how I'm reading them now (without meta.) It's not that complicated at all to find them as scum.

The town block is Will-ghug-damo-frog, all town all on sweet!scum or throwing.

Plus points for Frog

You and ghug were not voting for sweetandcool when he posted that, I think he was trying to pocket you and ghug. At that time, you had only voted for sweetandcool for pointing out that he had not changed his vote, then you changed your vote to Hamilton, then heart. That in not a good reason to say you were definitely town or "throwing".

I think this is what might be called a "clean bus".

[damo666]

Well having reread day 1 I can't come to a definite conclusion other than that I am very unlikely to vote Will tomorrow.

[bozotheclown]

Okay that sucks; I wanted to ask questions before posting my reads list and stuff. The important thing is that we need to stop dicking around and kill sweet. I'll post this part and hopefully that will be enough:

Damo is town probably based on their posts and my interactions with them in M85.

Sweet is really polarized and easy to read as scum, even without meta, which is mainly how I'm reading them now (without meta.) It's not that complicated at all to find them as scum.

The town block is Will-ghug-damo-frog, all town all on sweet!scum or throwing.

Why weren't your concerned at the time of this post that ghug and damo were no longer voting for sweetandcool?

[bozotheclown]

Well having reread day 1 I can't come to a definite conclusion other than that I am very unlikely to vote Will tomorrow.

I agree that someone did a good job bussing.

[damo666]

WE DID IT. FRICK YEAH BABY

This followed by .....

[damo666]

WAIT A DAMN SECOND

WE GOT THE GODFATHER?!??!?!!

Frog lock town for real

This.

Not a great look for Will.

[damo666]

Think there's probably a busser in the Bunny-Vecna range and the last one's off wagon. Maaaybe Will bussed. I really don't think Frog did.

O why did I have to read this?

I really am unsure.

[bozotheclown]

WAIT A DAMN SECOND

WE GOT THE GODFATHER?!??!?!!

Frog lock town for real

This.

Not a great look for Will.

Bunny is towncore...

Bunny can't die. ##VOTE HAMILTON

Just also helped push through the DK of Hamilton D2. I would not vote for Just D7.

[damo666]

Can we assume that Bunny is townclear based on the logic that if it was between Scum!Bunny and Godfather!Sweet, Bunny would have been bussed hard?

I am comfortable with that if it's not a fallacy.

In which case, if you are indeed town like I assume you are, sorry for the D1 vote.

Hmmm

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

This I think is pocketing.

This was not my scumtell btw.

What was it?

I will tell if I don’t die today.

[bozotheclown]

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

All tied at three you me brain

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

3 on you, bunny, and brain

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

3 way you Bunny brain

Gonna grace us with your opinion froggy?

Yeah, I think we can tell that scum are being town read somewhat due to the low consensus. It feels like today is a day we take a pot shot on a null slot.

##vote chaqa

I think this was 3 town responding to Hamilton and one scum keeping his distance.

[Frogsterking]

Thank you, Bozo

Keep the questions coming on your post-chaqa analysis of my slot, I have at least two more posts like this off the top of my head.

Here sweetandcool subtly defends Frogsterking in a way that does not seem like pocketing.

Bozo all of this ad hoc stuff is redundant, we should go over the things you posted immediately after chaqa flipped because you made a few concrete mistakes while you were tinfoiling my slot.

OK, what is your response to this:

N5, Frogsterking brought up my suspecting BunnyGo because of Hamilton's D2 EOD vote:

This was the post I was looking for

However, D3, when Frogsterking was pushing for a mis-kill of me, he commented on what I was saying about it, dismissing it as me "trying to manufacture a scum read on BunnyGo":

Frame job, not paying attention, spite vote or hoping for a flash wagon. I take it you are trying to manufacture a scum read on BunnyGo now?

Using what I posted D3 to scum read me D3, then trying to use the same post to keep me suspecting BunnyGo N5, seems scum indicative.

I understand it's frustrating that no one--including me--supported your theory on BunnyGo and the D1 wagons which iirc you formulated as early as D2. I can explain exactly why that happened both in general but especially in my own case. I'll structure this from least to most important, I guess.

#1 First of all, there is an inherent bias against the idea that the D1 wagons were a scum vs scum cross. It was easier for you to see because of how you read the game but for most players it's not a very intuitive thing to suggest. I was fortunate enough to play forum mafia with an actual mathematician once who offered some insight on this idea:

In post 1908, Frogsterking wrote:
My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility"

In some post #, corwinoid wrote :This is essentially true, for more reasons than stated. The real problem is the convolution of stats and probability; stating something has happened X% of the time (the statistic) doesn't inherently give it an X% probability of happening unless you're talking about independent random
events. We're not talking about random events though, and the probability of it being S/S is dependent on the probability of those slots is scum in the first place. So the mistake being made is using a statistic to define a probability that it doesn't actually define.

I had something else to say after that, but got interrupted for inane BS and lost my train of thought.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway.

I actually don't like this either though. I haven't (and have no intention of) looked at statistics for how likely town is to hunt scum vs. random selection, but my gut intuition is that it would be better than random chance. If that's the case, the odds of town splitting and picking two scum wagons at the same time would probably be higher than expected, as unintuitive as that might seem.

I was even aware of this idea and I was still skeptical when I saw you started pitching the idea (I thought on D2 but maybe it wasn't until D3.) That is the power of an inherent bias. I was aware of the idea that SvS wagons are more common than I would expect on an intuitive level but still your theory seemed off to me at that time you posted it: before most of the rest of the possible suspects were flipped town. This is a ordinary reaction or an average reaction to the theory you pitched about the SvS wagon cross. It's a not a GOOD reaction, but it's completely normal that I wouldn't be receptive to your idea until most of the other suspects were flipped. Seeing as you are considered to be a good solver here, I don't believe this is the first time you have pitched an idea that was too accurate for the rest of the players to understand until later on in the game when more information was available. I think in this case especially where an SvS wagon cross isn't the most intuitive concept, I think you can extend the benefit of the doubt to me that I would be less receptive to your read earlier in the game than I would be now that I KNOW there was an early busser on sweetandcool D1.

#2 This is connected to #1, explaining further why you would need to be more patient with me when it comes to the particular method you used. We all have different strengths and weaknesses when it comes to scumhunting, it's not fair or accurate to believe we are separated into "good" and "average" players completely, I also suspect skills may diverge as a player increases in read accuracy. The particular skills I've noticed that seem to draw some specialization are VCA (vote count analysis), scum on scum interactive tells, discerning fakeclaims and NKA (night kill analysis.) VCA is NOT a skill that I use effectively to find the scum. I want to and I hope that someday I will be better at it, but it is very much something I rely on other town players to be able to explain to me. These are all skills I find some players are very accurate at doing and I rely on them being able to point things out to me in order to improve my solving. I think I contributed to the scum hunting in my own way which was very different and I'm sorry that I didn't listen to you sooner: that was my mistake not to consider your theory earlier in the game REGARDLESS. We are talking about hindsight though, and at the time you pitched this idea on D3 I was still struggling to understand you even as an archetype of a player. Because of the way this game has played out I suspect this type of wagon analysis is something that you are more specialized in, and I think it's understandable from your point of view that your idea will not make sense to the rest of the players--including me--until later on in the game when the solve becomes more obvious.

#3 On D3, when you were primarily pitching this idea, I DID NOT KNOW THAT YOU WERE TOWN YET. The best example I can think of which made me paranoid of you is the way you defended me D2. This meta here on webdip is unique in that in most metas I am frequently miskilled on D1 until players become very familiar with my play. After a while they will start to follow my reads more because they realize I'm worth listening to, but that usually follows many, many misreads of my slot. This community was different in that not only did I not get mislimmed immediately D1, players were more receptive to my reads initially as well: something which, like other communities realized after trial and error, often pays off for town (but not always.) One of the ways I adapted to this as a player is that there are specific tells I look for in how players play around my slot. Usually the reasons (lolreasons) given for the wagon is that "something" about my play is "weird" and town usually are the ones pushing this early on. The certainty in your defense of me D2 unnerved me because usually players have a more difficult time reading me:

Frog fails to even adress my claim that I'm not actually vying for cred beyond saying I am again. That's fine, we all get stuck in stupid tunnels, and as I've acknowledged the whole time, it's reasonable to suspect me for the way I pulled back on sweet.

The thing that gets me, beyond bring annoyed at the rhetoric, is how lazy it is. A good chunk of the quotes come from posts where I was directly responding to him asking for answers. Combine that with the slow responses in and the missing things, and I'm left trying to figure out whether he can't be fucked to read the thread because of scum or because of towny overconfidence.

It doesn't matter if you are claiming credit or not, the vote speaks for itself from Frogsterking's point of view. I don't think the fact that you do that as town matters to him, and I am not sure it should. If you are mafia, I would assume you voted for sweetandcool at EOD because it is what you would do as town.

As for your opinion of how Frogsterking is playing, I don't see what you are talking about, and what looks like undermining him comes across as possibly scum motivated.

There was an absence of paranoia from your slot toward the quirkiness of my play which is something that scum don't always bother to emulate, making it a useful tell for me specifically to watch for. I understand now in hindsight that you were simply defending my slot, but at that time I was paranoid because it's not a reaction I get until players are more familiar with the quirks in my town game. I understand that is not how M85 played out, but this community is the outlier in that way, in most communities I am not able to prevent the D1 mislim on my slot from going through. Because of my background as an early lolwagon target I was wary of the certainty with which you showed on my alignment.

#4 This is a continuation of #3 about why I had trouble trusting you specifically because I was unsure of your alignment. In #3 I tried to help you understand my background as a player and how I read the game, and I gave 1 example of a way you played that alarmed me and why it did. Here in #4 though, my last point, I'll give you the single most important reason I wasn't receptive to your wagon analysis at the time you pitched it: you were not mechanically clear as town at that point in time. Darg had not yet claimed and I did not have the knowledge that you were town when you pitched your wagon analysis on D3.

To summarize, in #1 and #2 I explained why I was skeptical of your idea itself at the time you pitched it and in #3 and #4 I pointed out how I didn't know your alignment and had paranoia of my own at the time you pitched your wagon analysis.

Keep the questions coming on your post-chaqa flip analysis, you were not in a good state when you came up with those posts and I have answers.

[Frogsterking]

I'm here bozotheclown, assuming you are reading. Like I said, your suspicion on me is not warranted and I can help you see it. After you are done reading--unless that isn't good enough for you--point me to another section of your post-chaqa analysis and I will shoot.

[damo666]

K then. ##VOTE DARG

I thought Will da sussed ICOP?

[damo666]

Wow. Jamie was not someone I expected

It wasn't gonna be anyone too obvious, too high a likelihood of being saved. I think Jamie was killed to point us in Bozo's direction, consequently I think Bozo is less likely to be scum.

I think it is HamB & darg or HamB & deep.

##vote Ham

[BunnyGo]

##vote sweet

Damo votes me. Susses me. Then sheep’s me twice.

Could this be Bunny annoyed he's got trapped?

Silly way to trap myself when I could have voted you at any time. Including before voting sweet.

[BunnyGo]

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

All tied at three you me brain

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

3 on you, bunny, and brain

I'm here; what's the vote right now?

3 way you Bunny brain

Gonna grace us with your opinion froggy?

Yeah, I think we can tell that scum are being town read somewhat due to the low consensus. It feels like today is a day we take a pot shot on a null slot.

##vote chaqa

I think this was 3 town responding to Hamilton and one scum keeping his distance.

I’m amused we all presented the three way tie in the same order

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I’m back!