M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[BunnyGo]

Did you ever answer this Bunny?

An interesting point...I have no answer. I may be wrong about her. I'm not basing my read on her on mechanics, but on her substance.

I also keep feeling like kgray is scummy, wishy washy, hedgy... and then I read her iso... and many things I'm suspicious about get resolved. I just read her again because I think kgray could have indeed bussed damo D1; xorxes she had documented as her weakest scum read so maybe felt afraid of moving onto xorxes in the final minute if she is scum.

But... I don't think scum explains a lot of other things she's said and done.

Bunny not reading carefully doesn't look great. I also wonder if they could be doing scumtheatre.

But I think it's most likely Neph didn't move D1 because he was scum and knew xorx was town and Bunny is contriving a case against kgray. Even though independently there are things about Bunny that seem townie... saying "I don't know" is something he did a lot as scum last game when his illogic was revealed... don't like that he did that here.

I think damo, Bunny and Chaqa is the most straightforward scumteam.

I'm not reading closely? It's true, I subbed in, and don't have a lot of time. I am reading the new material closely; am relying on people's summaries of old material more. It says a lot about them.

I saw kgray venting against damo activating his vote just like I vented publicly last game against him wanting to surrender. I called her out on it. Nobody commented. I agree, what Tom points out about her day 1 makes less sense as scum; but her tone and writing since I've joined is scummy as all get out.

I say "I don't know" all the time. I just happened to have been scum the last 2 games. But having not even bothered to look, I'm sure I did it in literally every game.

[Chaqa]

@Bozo - I only went back to M50, but here's a few spots with me making vote switches in the final minutes of EoD. I know if I went back to the pre-M30 games there would be several more.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d1.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d3.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d4.html

[damo666]

Hey man. Can you at least try?

From my info these are by far the most probable scumteams.

I’m sorry you’re not enjoying the game. Maybe next time.

How do you wok that out?

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT is unchanged from last time:

Damo - 5
Chaqa - 2
Vecna - 1

Damo is scheduled.

Four hours and 55 minutes remain.

[BunnyGo]

From my info these are by far the most probable scumteams.

I’m sorry you’re not enjoying the game. Maybe next time.

How do you wok that out?

Just my sense. I could be very wrong. I don’t think you like being scum. And I don’t think you like being caught.

[damo666]

I’m sorry you’re not enjoying the game. Maybe next time.

How do you wok that out?

Just my sense. I could be very wrong. I don’t think you like being scum. And I don’t think you like being caught.

I slightly prefer town because there is a puzzle to solve but I also like being scum.

Getting caught is unpleasant, yes. So is getting widely scumread when town.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo - I only went back to M50, but here's a few spots with me making vote switches in the final minutes of EoD. I know if I went back to the pre-M30 games there would be several more.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d1.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d3.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d4.html

OK, but only D3 of M54 did you move from one top wagon to another, and it was not with 1 minute left.

Waiting until the last minute to change your vote to BunnyGo makes it look like you were hoping someone else would move to BunnyGo first, or possibly that you wanted to make sure BunnyGo got only one additional vote so that the vote would end in a tie, not a BunnyGo lynch.

[Chaqa]

@Bozo - I only went back to M50, but here's a few spots with me making vote switches in the final minutes of EoD. I know if I went back to the pre-M30 games there would be several more.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d1.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d3.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d4.html

OK, but only D3 of M54 did you move from one top wagon to another, and it was not with 1 minute left.

Waiting until the last minute to change your vote to BunnyGo makes it look like you were hoping someone else would move to BunnyGo first, or possibly that you wanted to make sure BunnyGo got only one additional vote so that the vote would end in a tie, not a BunnyGo lynch.

It was only near EoD when I even considered switching to Bunny based on the feeling I was getting. shrug.

[bozotheclown]

Since most players did not give their scum team predictions D4, I am going back to D3, adding BunnyGo and including what seemed to be worcej's last guess:

bozo: damo, Chaqa, Tom
damo: bozo, Chaqa, BunnyGo
foodcoats: damo, BunnyGo, Chaqa
Vecna: Chaqa, Tom, BunnyGo
kgray: damo, BunnyGo, Tom
Tom: damo, Chaqa, (Vecna or kgray)
Chaqa: damo, (2/3) of (bozo, Vecna, BunnyGo)
BunnyGo: damo, Vecna, kgray
worcej: damo, Chaqa, Tom

damo: 7
Chaqa: 6
BunnyGo: 5
Tom: 4
Vecna: 3
bozo: 2
kgray: 2

damo/Chaqa/BunnyGo was the consensus guess, although foodcoats was the only one who guessed that exact combination. For that to be correct, damo and Chaqa would have been including both their partners in their guess, while BunnyGo was including damo.

[foodcoats]

Since most players did not give their scum team predictions D4, I am going back to D3, adding BunnyGo and including what seemed to be worcej's last guess:

bozo: damo, Chaqa, Tom
damo: bozo, Chaqa, BunnyGo
foodcoats: damo, BunnyGo, Chaqa
Vecna: Chaqa, Tom, BunnyGo
kgray: damo, BunnyGo, Tom
Tom: damo, Chaqa, (Vecna or kgray)
Chaqa: damo, (2/3) of (bozo, Vecna, BunnyGo)
BunnyGo: damo, Vecna, kgray
worcej: damo, Chaqa, Tom

damo: 7
Chaqa: 6
BunnyGo: 5
Tom: 4
Vecna: 3
bozo: 2
kgray: 2

damo/Chaqa/BunnyGo was the consensus guess, although foodcoats was the only one who guessed that exact combination. For that to be correct, damo and Chaqa would have been including both their partners in their guess, while BunnyGo was including damo.

I haven't really changed my reads at this point, but I am somewhat uneasy with the thought that it's as easy as damo, Chaqa and Bunny - even inasmuch as I am always looking for the simplest explanation, and that is it in this case. kgray and Tom both raise my hackles a bit, although both of them have said very perspicacious things during their lines of questioning that I think scum would be more likely to sweep under the rug.

Assuming we don't outright lose here by mislynching damo, we should remember these two posts made by damo, which must contain clues as to who his partners are:

Ok. What do we know?

One of kgray, Vecna and Chaqa are JOAT.
Scum are setting me up as their game winning mislynch (a misguided play imo but that's neither here not there).
Food is town.

Bunny is probably town because if he were scum they would be risking losing him to a lynch.

So scum are min1 max 3 from kgray Vecna Chaqa plus min 0 max 2 from Bozo and Tom. Ten possible teams.

Of the JOAT possibles who is most likely to have set me up ? You me it really looks like Vecna who has been hard town reading me all game.

##vote Vecna

Assuming Vecma is JOAT the most logical pairs to be his teammates are, according to D1 voting,

Bozo Chaqa

or

Kgray Tom

I'd say about 60/40 the top pair

Finally, we should remember that Vecna is a permanent coinflip, because we don't know whether worcej or I was the trueVig. I think Vecna has been pretty adamantly townie, and I think his hard defense fits with his tinfoily nature. The fact that Vecna is a permanent 50/50 or better means that he may have positive expected value as a lynch, and this could be used by town or abused by scum if we make it to a 3v1 situation at the end.

But TL;DR damo, Chaqa and Bunny still seems to make the most sense based on the votes and wagons.

[foodcoats]

*Vecna's hard defense of damo

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo - I only went back to M50, but here's a few spots with me making vote switches in the final minutes of EoD. I know if I went back to the pre-M30 games there would be several more.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d1.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d3.html

http://mafia.peterlund.se/m54/m54_d4.html

OK, but only D3 of M54 did you move from one top wagon to another, and it was not with 1 minute left.

Waiting until the last minute to change your vote to BunnyGo makes it look like you were hoping someone else would move to BunnyGo first, or possibly that you wanted to make sure BunnyGo got only one additional vote so that the vote would end in a tie, not a BunnyGo lynch.

It was only near EoD when I even considered switching to Bunny based on the feeling I was getting. shrug.

"really worried"

##Vote BunnyGo

I don't know, but I'll leave this open for Tom or Bozo or Food to switch if they feel we need to.

Tom made it clear he would not be moving his vote, and foodcoats, worcej, and I were not online, I think you were safe voting for BunnyGo to cause the tie if you, damo, and BunnyGo are scum.

[Chaqa]

OK, but only D3 of M54 did you move from one top wagon to another, and it was not with 1 minute left.

Waiting until the last minute to change your vote to BunnyGo makes it look like you were hoping someone else would move to BunnyGo first, or possibly that you wanted to make sure BunnyGo got only one additional vote so that the vote would end in a tie, not a BunnyGo lynch.

It was only near EoD when I even considered switching to Bunny based on the feeling I was getting. shrug.

"really worried"

##Vote BunnyGo

I don't know, but I'll leave this open for Tom or Bozo or Food to switch if they feel we need to.

Tom made it clear he would not be moving his vote, and foodcoats, worcej, and I were not online, I think you were safe voting for BunnyGo to cause the tie if you, damo, and BunnyGo are scum.

When I was typing this. There were like 7 people online but not marked by thei usernames. I had no way of knowing who was actually here

[Chaqa]

Like how right now it says “and 18 guests”

[bozotheclown]

Nephthys was one of only 4 players (besides damo) who did not vote for damo D1. Chaqa voted for damo 2 times but did not stay on his wagon long either time. Chaqa voted for damo at 46:58 to put damo up 3-1-1, voted for emc at 43:06 to leave damo up 2-1-1-1-1, voted for damo at 5:02 when damo only had 1 vote and xorxes had 3 votes, and voted for xorxes at 2:14 when xorxes and damo were tied 3-3 to put xorxes up 4-2.

I think Nephthys and Chaqa fit as damo's scum partners if damo turns out to be the JOAT.

[bozotheclown]

Like how right now it says “and 18 guests”

I have seen large number of guests before, I do not know what causes that.

[bozotheclown]

I am a little concerned that Vecna or kgray could have been involved with the tie vote D4, but for my final D4 guess I am going to go with the most straightforward option.

scum team prediction:
BunnyGo: damo, Vecna, kgray
bozo: Chaqa, damo, BunnyGo

Can everyone else record their guess in case we make it to D5?

[kgray]

Except on day3 they were not guaranteed to make us lose a mislynch, since town still had the larger numbers. It was still likely to be a waste on D3 and a guaranteed win on D4 if they managed to tie or mislynch town on D3 without it.

Also true.

I could see scum!Vecna annoyed with JOAT!Chaqa who played the double vote suboptimally while he was gone. If this is true, then damo seems their most likely third teammate based on the idea that Chaqa was trying to save damo. But, then all 3 scum would have been on Bunny just to save scum!damo, who is very likely to be lynched later anyway, and Chaqa implicated himself in the process...

Vecna would have realized the value of tying the vote to keep town!damo around to make up for the misuse of the double vote the way bozo described. If damo is town and Vecna and Chaqa are scum, then I could see them trying to orchestrate the tie over the mislynch. In this case, it is possible that their third teammate is Bunny because I don't think it's unreasonable that Chaqa knew bozo and food were gone and Tom wasn't going to move his vote to lynch Bunny. But, it does seem more likely that the third in a Chaqa/Vecna team (if damo is town) would be bozo or Tom. I really don't think it's bozo. If it's Tom, then Chaqa would definitely know Tom wasn't going to break the tie. Tom also switching to Bunny last-minute would have been odd and would have drawn attention to Tom in addition to Chaqa, so it makes sense that they'd rather keep town!bunny and the tie over a town!bunny mislynch.

Sorry, this made my head spin. Who are you saying are the possible scumteams (excluding me of course)?

If you're town, then I think it's Vecna, Chaqa, and one of the remaining bozo/Tom/Bunny. I think bozo is least likely based on how strongly I townread him - although, I'll need to reread him. I don't think it's impossible that Vecna and Chaqa knew the vote was going to be tied and so their teammate scum!Bunny wouldn't die, but it's probably more likely that Tom is their teammate.

[bozotheclown]

Alternate scum theory Vecna/kgray/Chaqa, in which case town has lost.

[Chaqa]

Alternate scum theory Vecna/kgray/Chaqa, in which case town has lost.

Bozo, what do you think my motivation for causing a tie would be if damo is my teammate? It would have been painfully obvious to me as scum that I'd just be causing us BOTH to be lynched the next two days (and this is indeed what looks to be happening, and it will mean town loses).

Why would I simply not lynch damo and get some town cred and then try to set up a mislynch the next day or two with the other scum?