M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[Vecna]

If Chaqa is the JOAT and damo is town, switching to BunnyGo at the last minute would have set up damo for a game winning mislynch D4.

This is plausible. THough why would he have activated the double vote?

Maybe Vecna and Chaqa set it up in the last hour of D3, and the scum team is Vecna, Chaqa, and BunnyGo.

Or Chaqa could be the goon/tough guy and Vecna JOAT.

Yeah if only you had sheeped me on Chaqa yesterday instead of creating your own wagon on bunny eh

[Vecna]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

I think this is likely. Scum!Chaqa would have known the double vote was in play, and that him switching would at least tie the vote. It's certainly possible that Chaqa was hoping for someone to follow him to Bunny.

However, Chaqa's vote called for Tom/bozo/food to make the choice to switch or not. But, unless bozo or food switched their settings to "appear away," neither was online at EOD and Tom, who was around, didn't seem very convinced of my neph/bunny case. Scum!Chaqa probably figured that nobody else would switch to Bunny and he would tie the vote rather than lynch Bunny, so I think a Chaqa/damo/Bunny scumteam makes sense.

Also, since were both likely town, even if Damo is the JOAT scum knew theyd need someone to switch. All the other likely scum candidates were around except bunny.

tom didnt switch
damo was already voting bunny
bunny was not around or at least not stating anything, and him selfvoting wouldve conf-scummed him anyway.
not sure if bozo was around to switch.

Chaqa was the person that was the one that made it happen. If he is town and did an oopsy, why did none of the other scum switch earlier to tie it up, knowing damo was a double voter with it active?

[Vecna]

The real reason we should lynch chaqa though:

He cannot be allowed to be involved in -two- ties and allowed to brag about winning without getting lynched after that

[foodcoats]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

@kgray/bozo, here is the thing I'm struggling with... in this theory, I can see Chaqa doing this early doublevote, either through mistaken excitement or for the lulz. And I can see someone brazen enough to do it with him: BunnyGo (/Neph, who would not be around to properly counsel Chaqa to the contrary). But I am honestly stuck as to who would be the third and allow this play to slip through, as I do think it is suboptimal and there are a lot of players here who would be cunning and dangerous scum... yourselves included.

[damo666]

Ok. What do we know?

One of kgray, Vecna and Chaqa are JOAT.
Scum are setting me up as their game winning mislynch (a misguided play imo but that's neither here not there).
Food is town.

Bunny is probably town because if he were scum they would be risking losing him to a lynch.

So scum are min1 max 3 from kgray Vecna Chaqa plus min 0 max 2 from Bozo and Tom. Ten possible teams.

Of the JOAT possibles who is most likely to have set me up ? You me it really looks like Vecna who has been hard town reading me all game.

##vote Vecna

[damo666]

* To me (not 'you me')

[damo666]

Assuming Vecma is JOAT the most logical pairs to be his teammates are, according to D1 voting,

Bozo Chaqa

or

Kgray Tom

I'd say about 60/40 the top pair

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 4.1

Chaqa(3) -Vecna, bozotheclown, kgray
damo666(2) - Tom Bombadil, BunnyGo,
Vecna(1) - damo666

Currently CHAQA is set to be lynched.

33 hours and 18 minutes are left in Day Four.

[Vecna]

Ok. What do we know?

One of kgray, Vecna and Chaqa are JOAT.
Scum are setting me up as their game winning mislynch (a misguided play imo but that's neither here not there).
Food is town.

Bunny is probably town because if he were scum they would be risking losing him to a lynch.

So scum are min1 max 3 from kgray Vecna Chaqa plus min 0 max 2 from Bozo and Tom. Ten possible teams.

Of the JOAT possibles who is most likely to have set me up ? You me it really looks like Vecna who has been hard town reading me all game.

##vote Vecna

Yeah, the person thats been townreading you all game and that is advocating to lynch chaqa instead of you is definitely trying to set you up.

If youre actually town, its these types of posts that are going to result in your lynch much more than any scum pushing you.

[BunnyGo]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

I think this is likely. Scum!Chaqa would have known the double vote was in play, and that him switching would at least tie the vote. It's certainly possible that Chaqa was hoping for someone to follow him to Bunny.

However, Chaqa's vote called for Tom/bozo/food to make the choice to switch or not. But, unless bozo or food switched their settings to "appear away," neither was online at EOD and Tom, who was around, didn't seem very convinced of my neph/bunny case. Scum!Chaqa probably figured that nobody else would switch to Bunny and he would tie the vote rather than lynch Bunny, so I think a Chaqa/damo/Bunny scumteam makes sense.

Town kgray is less tinfoil than this. Much much less.

[BunnyGo]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

The only reason to activate JOAT extra vote yesterday was “use it or lose it”. Damo must be JOAT.

Now, I actually think kgray is scummy, but Chaq late move is towny. He couldn’t know he was tying the vote.

And anyone thinking I’m playing like my scum game instead of sitting back and trying to listen sucks at this game.

I'm sorry, what? If Chaqa is scum he definitely would have known he was tying the vote. Why do you think he "couldn't" have known? Do you know for a fact that Chaqa is town?

I’m saying the move itself isn’t scummy As town!chaq wouldn’t know what was up. Scum!chaq would. So the late vote move is mechanically NAI.

[BunnyGo]

If damo is scum, he does not have any reason to give up this game, as scum have the advantage. In M55, I think he felt that he did not have a chance of winning when he gave up. This game he would be more likely to give up as town if he thought he was about to be mislynched for a mafia win.

Town Damo still tries to solve when that happens. What about M54 when he was constantly on the chopping block. He was wrong about xorxes, but he was active and hunting.

OK, damo was more active in M54. I still want to see Chaqa flip first. I would be surprised if damo is scum and Chaqa is town. If Chaqa is the JOAT, I think that would point to damo being town. If Chaqa is scum but not the JOAT, damo is probably the JOAT.

This makes some sense about your vote order. Can you elaborate why Chaq is more likely scum? Is it mechanics? Vote analysis? How he’s writing?

[BunnyGo]

So you are claiming either kgray or Vecna activated double vote? But why? I don't get it . They are toying with us.

Tell me kgray: did you not see his trolling posts YESTERDAY?! Do you see them today?

I did not see any posts from damo yesterday that I thought were trolling, no. But yeah, the idea that Vecna or I would activate the double vote and use it to vote for damo makes absolutely no sense and I doubt anyone would honestly believe that. I am fairly confident that either damo or Chaqa is the JOAT.

WHY does JOAT!chaq make more sense that you or vecna?

[BunnyGo]

The only reason to activate JOAT extra vote yesterday was “use it or lose it”. Damo must be JOAT.

Now, I actually think kgray is scummy, but Chaq late move is towny. He couldn’t know he was tying the vote.

And anyone thinking I’m playing like my scum game instead of sitting back and trying to listen sucks at this game.

It is possible the JOAT is someone who did not realize they should save the double vote until it was too late. Chaqa never seemed clear on the optimal use of the double vote.

That would also imply that none of the scumteam understood the optimal use of the double vote. Surely the JOAT wouldn't be going off on their own without consulting their team.

JOAT!damo would. I could even see you using this post to vent frustration about it the way I did last game while on a team with Damo.

[BunnyGo]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

@xorx - I hadn't questioned it until I was re-reading you a bit, but how is this MYLO tomorrow (assuming a mislynch happens today)?

6 v 3(+1) would mean with a mislynch it's down to 4v3 the following day. The 6v3 day is not MYLO in any means. Or am I misunderstanding?

This was late in D2, when xorxes was trying to explain to the mafia how best to use their double vote, and Chaqa indicated he did not follow what xorxes was saying yet. Chaqa may have already activated the double vote at that point, especially if his teammates were not around to discuss it in mafia chat, such as if Nephthys and Vecna were his partners.

It seems he misunderstood what the +1 meant?

[BunnyGo]

If damo is scum, he does not have any reason to give up this game, as scum have the advantage. In M55, I think he felt that he did not have a chance of winning when he gave up. This game he would be more likely to give up as town if he thought he was about to be mislynched for a mafia win.

Town Damo still tries to solve when that happens. What about M54 when he was constantly on the chopping block. He was wrong about xorxes, but he was active and hunting.

That's a good point. I don't think it's 100% comparable, because damo in M54 was town who'd just come out of a tied vote at mylo and therefore had very good reason to think I was scum. But you're definitely right that he doesn't seem nearly as invested here, regardless of how much information he has.

Has he not been involved in tie votes this game? What are you doing?

[BunnyGo]

By using the double vote to tie D3, the mafia achieved the same result as saving it for D4, keeping town from having any more mislynches. However, it would not have tied if not for Chaqa, so I think Chaqa is implicated whether he is the JOAT or not.

Yeah I follow this now. I think you're right.

Except on day3 they were not guaranteed to make us lose a mislynch, since town still had the larger numbers. It was still likely to be a waste on D3 and a guaranteed win on D4 if they managed to tie or mislynch town on D3 without it.

Scum chat:

Kgray: hey xorxes is right lets save this
Damo: nah I’m dead either way
Kgray: then who cares let’s play like you survive. Can you actually TRY?!
Damo: sure. I’ll try. <activated double vote>

[BunnyGo]

The real reason we should lynch chaqa though:

He cannot be allowed to be involved in -two- ties and allowed to brag about winning without getting lynched after that

LOL. This is finally the first post that makes me think you’re Town.

[BunnyGo]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

@kgray/bozo, here is the thing I'm struggling with... in this theory, I can see Chaqa doing this early doublevote, either through mistaken excitement or for the lulz. And I can see someone brazen enough to do it with him: BunnyGo (/Neph, who would not be around to properly counsel Chaqa to the contrary). But I am honestly stuck as to who would be the third and allow this play to slip through, as I do think it is suboptimal and there are a lot of players here who would be cunning and dangerous scum... yourselves included.

Correct. Damo is the JOAT.

[bozotheclown]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

@kgray/bozo, here is the thing I'm struggling with... in this theory, I can see Chaqa doing this early doublevote, either through mistaken excitement or for the lulz. And I can see someone brazen enough to do it with him: BunnyGo (/Neph, who would not be around to properly counsel Chaqa to the contrary). But I am honestly stuck as to who would be the third and allow this play to slip through, as I do think it is suboptimal and there are a lot of players here who would be cunning and dangerous scum... yourselves included.

I think Vecna is possible, since he was not around for the end of D2 when the decision to activate the double vote was likely made. Vecna arguing against the damo wagon and voting for BunnyGo also helped set up the tie.

The other possibility is that damo is the JOAT who activated the double vote because he was likely to get lynched, and thought the double vote could be used to cause a tie if the vote was close. If this is the case, maybe Chaqa was willing to cause the tie even though it would likely get him and damo lynched because the third scum is well hidden.