M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[rdrivera2005]

Fox is playing entirely in self defense which is scummy.

Rdrivera is at least playing this correctly from a town brain, and get the mislynch over with before lylo when it's looking like he's going to be lynched before the game is up.
(But rdrivera also started yesterday with town reactions before going back on them, so I'm not 100% convinced he actually thinks people will follow him on his suicide)

But it's a good enough difference for me, to prioritize Fox over him.

There's no chance he thinks people will follow him on his suicide, especially after what happened with Vecna.

I don't know if people will follow, but maybe shake things up. What I am seeing now is that town will lynch Fox and me, not necessarily in this order. If Fox is scum this is game over. If you lynch Fox first and he is town I will have to defend myself during 2 entire days (considering we no-lynch in mylo). I just don't want to do this.
And I know there is a chance Fox is scum.

[Fluminator]

Oh, I wanted to play a game of chicken with Rdrivera and call his bluff, but a shinier thing appeared.
Endhammering would only look horrible if Fox is town

[BunnyGo]

I for one think his no lynch strategy has merit. I would like people to actually consider it. Try and post your best arguments in its favor. And against. I think it is a strong idea, even if Fox is scum. I don’t think it’s slam dunk obvious for town, but I think there’s merit and it’s not obvious to dismiss it.

Do you believe it would be smart for town to no lynch every day starting day 1 until lylo as long as their investigative roles were still alive?

What a stupid straw man argument you’re constructing. Please address the merits of THIS situation and suggestion. Xorxes did. Can you?

[Foxcastle]

Not sure if this is completely right, but this is what I get:

3 NKs in a row, chances that watcher gains info and survives to tell us are:

7/8 * 2/10 + 7/8 * 6/7 * 2/9 + 7/8 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 2/8 = 66%

(Random) Lynch + 2 NKs, chances that we get scum either by lynch or by watcher:

3/10 + 7/10 * 6/7 * 2/9 + 7/10 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 2/8 = 56%

So if those are the right calculations (debatable) then it does appear that the 3 NKs gives us a 10% better chance of finding scum. However, this assumes that our lynch is completely random, which it isn't, and it also has the cost that we get no wagon information.

So no, I don't think it's such a good idea.

It's true that the lynch isn't random, but you're also forgetting that none of us is as dumb as all of us.

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh, I am but a poor a humble washerwoman.

Who will take pity on me?

[Jamiet99uk]

*AND humble.

Damned autocorrect messing with my messing.

[Foxcastle]

Foxcastle could save himself if he wished to. I do not think his no-lynch plan is going to fly.

I would like to know how, please.

[Foxcastle]

Foxcastle could save himself if he wished to. I do not think his no-lynch plan is going to fly.

If we get to 5 end votes, he can vote rivera and end, effectlvely getting a no-lynch,

Oh, I see. Nice.

[BunnyGo]

I for one think his no lynch strategy has merit. I would like people to actually consider it. Try and post your best arguments in its favor. And against. I think it is a strong idea, even if Fox is scum. I don’t think it’s slam dunk obvious for town, but I think there’s merit and it’s not obvious to dismiss it.

Do you believe it would be smart for town to no lynch every day starting day 1 until lylo as long as their investigative roles were still alive?

That's the usual no-lynch argument that people like to make, which would only make sense if lynches were completely random. But the whole point of having lynches is that they are not random and provide information even when we mislynch.

This is a good point. But as we have detail from mislynches and a successful lynch, is the one more mislynch (and successful lynches until then) worth an extra night of watching?

[Fluminator]

yes

[Foxcastle]

I agree that Flum is looking opportunistic and like he's very happy about the way things stand. There's some chance this is town Flum.

[BunnyGo]

@Bozo, @BunnyGo

I do not think we are lynching Kgray today.

Will you pick between Foxcastle and Rdrivera?

Not yet. More people than just those of us currently voting on her have said they’d be willing.

I’ve made my position on Rdr clear. Need to reread Fox still.

[Jamiet99uk]

Foxcastle could save himself if he wished to. I do not think his no-lynch plan is going to fly.

If we get to 5 end votes, he can vote rivera and end, effectlvely getting a no-lynch,

Oh, I see. Nice.

More generally I meant the vote was 4-3 and you could tie it.

[Jamiet99uk]

Does anyone believe this whole "oh, I am so tired, I cannot possibly go on, please do the kind thing and kill me now" schtick from Rdrivera?

[xorxes]

I agree that Flum is looking opportunistic and like he's very happy about the way things stand. There's some chance this is town Flum.

Town or scum?

[BunnyGo]

Does anyone believe this whole "oh, I am so tired, I cannot possibly go on, please do the kind thing and kill me now" schtick from Rdrivera?

Yes. I think he’s town. I think the rest of you are tunneling. If no new intel on him shows up scummy, I’ll back him in lylo. Almost everyone else seems scummier (except maybe Flum)

[BunnyGo]

@damo: join the kgray wagon like you said you’d be willing to. LETS DO THIS!

[Foxcastle]

I don’t think Town!Fox would advocate for this No Lynch strategy. I think he knows he will be lynched, and he’s just trying to do weird things to make it tough to read his partners. I don’t think we can put much stock into his actions.

Fox, if you’re Town, please make your best effort to solve the game, and tell us your best thoughts on the full scum team and why, so we can use that after you flip.

Balki, your patronizing "now go do work" is something you did in M46, too. It's you trying to wave me off of saving myself.

Why wouldn't I advocate for this strategy as town? I know I'm the most scumread player here (with Rdrivera, but I'm listed first by most people), I know that my main case on who I think is most likely scum (you) got zero traction. The idea that I'd waste more time trying to convince people who don't want to listen to me on a case they don't believe is terrible.

Instead, I am trying to convince Town to do things that are objectively good for them, and actually could give us a chance to win.

Well, look, I’m not 100% sure you are scum. You could be Town. If you are Town, I’d like you to take the time to give your complete, best thoughts on the full scum team and why.

I don’t think that your no lynch strategy is going to gain traction. And I think, based on your voting record, that your going to be lynched today. So please work on solving to leave us with something useful. Not to save yourself, as I just doubt you will be saved at this point, but to leave us with something great that can help us win the game after you perish.

I don’t mean to be patronizing. I sincerely want you to do this because I think it would be helpful if you are Town.

Balki, I have laid out my thinking. I don't have reasons for everything, there's a lot of "feeling" about certain people. But my preferences are clear, I think. I am unlikely to keep harping on them in futility if town isn't going to listen.

Especially if you are town, this needs to be our last game together. Jamiet made some criticisms of your play that I would echo. You come off continually as condescending and egotistical—I can deal with the other personalities on this site, but something about yours resonates with me at a harmful frequency.

I'm going to try to forget this game now.

[Fluminator]

Aww Fox,
One of the appeals of this game to me is having to work with people you may not get along with, in a stressful and paranoid situation. Like this really is as much a game about communication and figuring how to work with people, as it is a detective game.

I actually love playing with Jamiet because we usually don't get along super well in other parts of the forum, but it's interesting having to work with him in a game such as this, often to success. Mafia actually as translated to real life skills on the workforce lol.

tl;dr, try viewing this as an opportunity to learn how to handle personalities you clash with maybe?

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm going to look at this Kgray case that Bozo and Bunny are banging on about, comments in a bit.