MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[Vecna]

I think Kalel turns up when it’s safe to post, safe to vote etc. I think he’s around more than he let’s on. I think this calm “reason?” act is even a very careful response to being voted by me for no apparent reason. I’m quite convinced

Did someone confirm whether the quick kitsune sheep was in line with all the spreadsheet nonsense?

This rings pretty true and I feel I have a solid team B shaping up in my head.

Very curious to hear about that team, hopefully before EON.

What's your read of bozo?

Let me first ask you a question.

What was the reason again for discounting Bozo from team M?

[Chaqa]

Excluding RHK, Tom, and ND, who are our presumed town clears, we're left with the following for the lynch/scum pool (I'm excluding myself as well since I'm about to die). My notation for the following analysis will have each player with this afterward:

[MX][BX][JX]
MX -> Moriarty and a number for how likely they are on that team
BX -> team B/Burke team and how likely...
JX -> Jack likelyhood

All scores start at a normalized value of 5.

Bionic - [M5][B5][J5]
Bozo - [M5][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M5][B5][J5]
yavu - [M5][B5][J5]
dargo - [M5][B5][J5]
EMC - [M5][B5][J5]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M5][B5][J5]
purple - [M5][B5][J5]
Temasek - [M5][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B5][J5]
xorxes - [M5][B5][J5]

This is 12 people. In there is the Moriarty goon, all 3 of Scum Team 2, and Jack.

5 non-town out of 12+3, so 1/3 of the town is not town-aligned, although the three factions do make things easier. Based on the Day 1 Bob lynch, it's pretty safe to assume dargo, Kalel, EMC, purple, and xorxes aren't the Moriarty goon. BUT MORE INTERESTINGLY - Bob had claimed (HARD CLAIMED) Gambler! This is obviously what made Hosuke vote for him - but the Gambler being a female role, means JACK wouldn't want to vote for him either. Meaning the above five are not only NOT the Moriarty goon, they also are less likely to be JACK.

Therefore I will drop them all down -3 on the M and -2 on the J track.

Bionic - [M5][B5][J5]
Bozo - [M5][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M5][B5][J5]
yavu - [M5][B5][J5]
dargo - [M2][B5][J3]
EMC - [M2][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M5][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B5][J5]
xorxes - [M2][B5][J3]

More Day 1 stuff: typically I find scum drop votes on their teammates or shade them on Day 1, and scum also like to push easy-ish mislynches or counterwagons to scum (duh) except for certain players like rivera who bus. An interesting thing is that Bob had a short vote for Bozo that he quickly dropped, and Bozo also was on the counter-Bob wagons on Day 1. I'll add M+1 to Bozo. Additionally interesting is that Bob, despite being on the block, never moved over to the Computer Genius wagon despite it being more viable than the Vaporwave wagon for most of Day 1. And it isn't like Bob wasn't on - he posted at 0:44 to deadline, when it was 6-5 Bob-CG, with no Vapor wagon in sight. This is a huge thing to me and I'm giving CG/yavu an M+2 for it.

I do want to point out this post from rivera:

Starting the game on this weekend is pretty bad to me I don't have time to play decently. And I will probably be offline at EOD.

Right now I got solid towny vibes from Dargo and emc. Bunny and Xorxes had good moments but they could be hunting the other faction. And I think Chaqa is really Jekkil.

I don't like the Bob "claim" thing and justification, looks a lot like Ezio last game. I still don't like Damo, it's a bit of OMGUS but I have a feeling I might've hit something to get him to be so defensive to the point of voting me. I have also a weird feeling about Temasek too, but it's about tone.

As Bob is already receiving pressure ##vote Damo

Rivera is the kind of player who sets up busses on his teammates. Interesting here that he does immediately shade Bob - fits his playstyle, but he doesn't actually vote for him. He also says he has a werid feeling about Temasek. Also town creds Dargo/EMC/Bunny/xorxes. Interesting that Bunny died soon after - betting it was Team Moriarty's work. Note for later - see who town read Bunny the night before he died.

Based on this post, I give Temasek M+1. I may use the info on Darg/EMC/xorxes to give some of them M points later based on future rivera posts, but I don't see any world where either Dargo or EMC is on Team Moriarty. In fact, I will give them another M-1 for rivera town reading them.

Xorxes is the only one possibly on Team M simply because he was the last to join that wagon. This puts us to:

Bionic - [M5][B5][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M5][B5][J5]
yavu - [M7][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B5][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B5][J5]
xorxes - [M2][B5][J3]

Overall, there isn't too much more to glean off Day 1.

Night 1 is pretty uneventful. Maybe there's something to be gained in examining people's reactions to the Bob lynch or their pre-EoN posts, but it's kinda all WIFOM. Not many posted substantial reads list, although Dargo did, which I like as a general towny-thing to do.

Day 1's frostwind lynch was a mess overall. With so many people on it, and so little care about it, it in retrospect was clearly a situation here no one felt that motivated to save him. I realize, of course, that for a majority of the day it was between ND and myself, and there's a lot to unpack there, so I'll try to begin dissecting as much of Day 2 as I can in the next post.

[ND]

Just vote cmdr, bionic, darg, or purple. Scum is in that pool. It's not hard dumdums

[xorxes]

Did someone confirm whether the quick kitsune sheep was in line with all the spreadsheet nonsense?

This rings pretty true and I feel I have a solid team B shaping up in my head.

Very curious to hear about that team, hopefully before EON.

What's your read of bozo?

Let me first ask you a question.

What was the reason again for discounting Bozo from team M?

His opening back and forth with rivera.

[DemonRHK]

I'm demoralized after I fucked that day up.

Come get my ass Jack. Doc is dead, I'm spent, and god know ND didn't have to critical thinking to doc my ass.

[e.m.c^42]

Vecna! Vecna, darling of my heart;
From this game I hope you not depart.
Regardless of scum or town,
I won't let anyone take you down.

But alas! There are scummy things seen,
such as your mildness (not to demean).

Usually the method, easy to find
is when you are not left behind.

Change from normal posting activity,
is almost always of scum proclivity.
Especially for you - fond of catch-up,
If without, it's scum meta match-up.

Not to mention, a type of sadness,
the utter lack of chaotic madness.
Where is the sassiness? the want to solve;
Your motivation has all but dissolved.

A creeping thought occurs - a ploy?
This dampened spirit, survival coy.
I suppose it's possible, so alright,
a delay in walls, 'til after tonight.

[e.m.c^42]

I'm demoralized after I fucked that day up.

Come get my ass Jack. Doc is dead, I'm spent, and god know ND didn't have to critical thinking to doc my ass.

Hell nah, your ass is mine bb

no offering to Jack unless he agrees for the both of us at once ;p

[e.m.c^42]

Actually a wall sounds interesting. Maybe ill give another crack at trying to be able to read you.

Am I truly that incomprehensible? :v

[Chaqa]

Bionic - [M5][B5][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M5][B5][J5]
yavu - [M7][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B5][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B5][J5]
xorxes - [M2][B5][J3]

I'll have a few trains of thought going here: the Frost wagon, the ND/Chaqa back-forth (and what if any info we can gleam from it), and various other oddities.

The Frost wagon is started by Temasek and RHK, although RHK is the one who sticks with it without change. ND then comes out with his Jekyll claim, sparking the mess that will soak up most of Day 2. An early interesting post:

LOL

I can’t say for sure how many, but I absorbed at least one attack with my self-save. This is a great game.

you can doctor yourself?

This comes *after* I claim self-save but *before* ND claims. Cmdr's reaction here seems very genuine, and I'm giving him M-2 and B-2 since I think if he were on a non-town faction with teammates he wouldn't have reacted this way. Shortly thereafter, ND comes in with his "I ATE THE ROLEBLOCK AND KILL" - but hasn't yet explicitly claimed Jekyll.

We have an interesting post from rivera here:

Finally catch up after being away most of the da. Really interesting night result, if ND is telling the truth he really deserves the town MVP.

Tom, if I were Bob partner I would have bussed him hard, but this is pure WIFOM. I would have voted him at EOD because I didn't have a scumread on Vapor, but I wasn't online and it's just speculation.

I take this as a slight hint that maybe Bob's other partner *didn't* bus him hard. I'll give xorxes an M-1 just for this.

Bionic - [M5][B5][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M3][B3][J5]
yavu - [M7][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B5][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B5][J5]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

lol, ##Vote ND

I don't believe any of this, and tbh I think getting rid of him as a policy lynch due to his awfulness is worth it.

He is either the commuter, or the doctor saved him, or he is lying.

Real Commuter won't counterclaim him yet, Doctor won't confirm whether he saved him or not yet, but if he is lying the truth will surface sooner rather than later, so I don't think this is a good reason to lynch him.

If he is the commuter would he know any of these things would happen to him since he would be commuting?

Adjudication Order:
1. Commuting actions
2. Roleblocking actions
3. Investigative actions
4. Grave robbery
5. Killing actions
6. Healing actions

##CALL GM Would the commuter know 2 through 6 happen to him if he is commuting?

Interesting post from Bionic - just want to mark down he seems to have been thinking hard on mechanics at a point when scum would be more wondering what happened than town (who likely were just happy no kills happened).

What's interesting about the whole time when the ND/Chaqa back-and-forth is going, is the people discussing it are mostly town-ish. It's mainly Tom, xorx, ND, me, Bunny, Demon... so far at least (around page 50). Let's see how this continues.

Interesting post from Bionic:

-- snipped --

So this is the Dr. Jekyll post whereas your last ones were Mr. Hyde?
I haven't felt great about Chaqa's claim since it happened. Gun to my head, I would tend to believe ND's claim

A quick retreat of Day 1 does in fact support Bionic not liking my claim. Consistency is good, I suppose. Marked for later.

Wow... My spreadsheet might be broken now. A lot of the input D2 has been around a single topic that makes a lot of 'noise', however it might make it easier to filter out in ISOs.

I can't make heads or tails of ND/Chaq situation. I wish Jamie could put on his Ironman suit and shoot both of them.

So Tuesday night I'm going to ISO my other 3 scum; RDR, Damo and Vapor/Tom B. and see how they stack up against each other before EoD. (Frost is on the list but I've been giving newbie cushion). If they've pointed up heavily on town then I'll have to choose between the two doc-claims.

Am I the only one who really doesn't understand what/how the Kalel spreadsheet is/does? Regardless - let's check back later to see if he did these ISOs.

Around this time I also see the beginnings of Flavius's determined drive on me for "not leading the town". I think this is a good sign for Flavius. I won't quote all the specific posts, but on page 56, Bozo spends a lot of time trying to figure out who is the real Jekyll, and winds up voting for me. Not sure if it's relevant, really.

I retract my claim with 32 hours left in the Day on page 59. This begins the Frostwind portion of the day. Looking back, the wagon at the time looked like:

Chaqa (11): Bozo, damo, dargo, Kit, ND, purple, rivera, Tem, Tom, Vecna, xorx
ND (4): Chaqa, Cmdr, Frost, ItsHosuke

Bunny was on xorxes, RHK is on frostwind, Flavius is on bo.

Bionic, Bo_sox (yavu), EMC, and Kalel had yet to vote.

Overall... yeah, I don't think this entire thing was helpful to town. Maybe if I handled it better or if ND's reveal had worked out a bit different or he had played into it, but it just was kinda a bust. What *is* interesting to me specifically, and to everyone else once I die -

I'm town. I had 11 votes on me. So, what caused the shift to Frostwind, and why did it happen? Scum wouldn't care - they'd be lynching someone not on their team either way. BUT I suppose my VT claim could have given scum no reason to prioritize lynching me over Frostwind though. So perhaps scum would be more likely to vote for Frostwind.

But a bunch of people unvoted immediately. Dargo unvoted and moved to Frostwind. This is a huge +town for me for dargo to the point I'm giving him B-3. I'd drop him down in M but no one goes below a 1.

-- snipped --

ND's claim, Vecna didn't claim anything as far as I know.

You have a point on Mafia already knowing who were lying, at least 3 of them.

##unvote

This is an interesting post from rivera that in retrospect is probably a scumslip. I wonder if this implies that one of the scum teams did in fact target RHK or something else odd like that. ALSO interesting he says "at least 3 of them" - does this mean Team Moriarty is the one who *DIDNT* target ND? I wonder...

Shortly after ND unvotes, Temasek and Bionic do as well. I find it very interesting. If they were scum, they'd have little reason to change votes here. At this point ND jumps back on, Hosuke jumps off ND to Frostwind, and Bunny bounces around a bit.

At this point, it's 8-5 Frostwind with some various others:
Chaqa (8): Bozo, Cmdr, Frost, Kit, ND, Tom, Vecna, xorxes
Frost (5): damo, dargo, DemonRHK, ItsHosuke, rdrivera
EMC (1): Bunny
bo_sox (1): Flavius
Unvote (4): Bionic, Chaqa, purple, Temasek
No vote (3): bo_sox, EMC, Kalel

So, if you're scum with an 8-5 moment at the time. You're pretty sure I'm just a lowly VT, knowing that I wasn't targeted for kill and there was no deaths, so ND is telling the truth. Given this - you want to lynch someone who is either:
1. on the other scum team OR
2. a town PR or Jack

I think this is what precipitates the shift over to Frostwind we see starting with rivera (one scum already following the strategy!) Let's see how the dominoes fall:

Next, both Temasek and Kalel vote for Frost. Tom swaps from me to RDR (his guilty scan), tying it up at 7-7. Bunny votes for Frost, then I do (self-preservation and all). It's now 9-6 after Frostwind unvotes... which was odd.

Bozo and Purple pile onto Frost. Bionic votes for me. - normally I'd say because he doesn't want association with a town lynch, but with multiple scum teams, this doesn't work. His reasoning is stated as:

For now I will put my vote back on chaqa because I didnt like the Jekyll claim since it happened

This... totally fits, actually. I'm beginning to come around on Bionic. Tom tries to get a Temasek wagon going, not liking the Frost pile-on. He is joined by Vecna, though neither provides reasoning. Xorxes, ND, and Frosrtwind also pile on. This is very interesting - we have a pretty sizable amount of respected players, two clears included, and Frostwind, on Temasek - and no one really brings it up later.

ND and Vecna bounce off the wagon, but Vecna's reasoning is interesting:

##vote Frost

Yeah I was just trying to shake the tree to see what would fall through.

Really nothing interesting came off of it though

Nothing else interesting really happens except EMC showing up at the 11th hour, voting Frost, then shifting to bo_sox for some reason. I didn't really give out too many points yet.

I find Vecna's post to be pretty town. He is trying to prod for any potential teammates Temasek has out there. This isn't something he would do if they were scum together, which eliminates Vecna as a Burke teammate with Temasek. I'll give Vecna B-1 for this. Additionally, I'm giving Bionic a general M-1, B-1 for his logical consistency.

Bionic - [M4][B4][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M3][B3][J5]
yavu - [M7][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B2][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B4][J5]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

End of Day 2. More to follow.

[Chaqa]

Very curious to hear about that team, hopefully before EON.

What's your read of bozo?

Let me first ask you a question.

What was the reason again for discounting Bozo from team M?

His opening back and forth with rivera.

Xorx, can you link me to some of this? I want to factor it into my scores at some point.

[purplecow]

Am I the only one who really doesn't understand what/how the Kalel spreadsheet is/does?

Yeah I don't get it either. But maybe I'm too new to understand.

[xorxes]

Let me first ask you a question.

What was the reason again for discounting Bozo from team M?

His opening back and forth with rivera.

Xorx, can you link me to some of this? I want to factor it into my scores at some point.

Just do an iso of rivera. Or do an iso of me night 3.

[Chaqa]

Bionic - [M4][B4][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M3][B3][J5]
yavu - [M7][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B2][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B5][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B4][J5]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

Night 2 I'll be pretty brief on, mainly I'm focusing on what may have gotten Damo and Bunny killed. Voting record wise:

(excluding conf town or me)
Bunny's "serious-ish" votes were for purple, xorxes, EMC, and bo/yavu.
Damo's "serious-ish" votes were for rivera... and not much else

Rivera and Team M could have killed either, really. One of these kills could belong to Jack. Two kills when there could have been three is interesting. I'll see if Kit crumbed anything Day 3 when I get there.

Overall - Bunny didn't post anything too damning on Night 2, and Damo didn't either. I don't think there's much to gain from the kills. If I had to guess, one of the scum teams targeted either RHK or Kitsune/ND made a save.

Day 3, however, is full of information.

My thoughts on this are going to be a bit disjointed, but I have a few points:

Tbh, I doubt SK would get subbed out twice. One of them would have been excited enough to have the opportunity to play as a 3rd party.

Correct, that's why I am VT. And as I am VT, that's why I looked for VT PM.
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say that, so I will ask GM to reveal a proof.

Yav, you are getting weirder, you know pretty well GMs can't give any proof.

I still don't much of a real reason to vote Cmdr or purplecow other then lurking and in this case Kit, Hosuke or even me are probably lurking even more.

Both Yavu and Chaqa are good lynch candidates, my problem with Yav wagon is who are on it, I suspect both Tom and Tem and Bozo isn't much towny too.

I reallly don't like Chaqa answer to Xorxes, it seems fabricated, but I still don't buy this Chaqa and Vecna are scum together thing. I think one of then is scum, just not sure which.

##vote Chaqa while I try to re-read both EODs that I missed.

Day 3 had been pretty dead for the first day or so. Rivera makes this vote with only ELEVEN hours left to go. It changes the game from 4-3-2 (yavu-Chaqa-purple) to 4-4-2 (yavu-Chaqa-purple). Why is this significant? Well, for now, nothing, but with the knowledge you'll all soon have that i'm town -

WHY would rivera not put yavu ahead 5-3 to guarantee a lynch on someone who he had more reason to suspect could be non-VT? My entire play pointed to it and a scum player would likely recognize it. This strongly leads me to believe yavu is the Moriarty Goon - and this fits with why BobMcBob voted Vapor over CG on Day 1. I'm giving M+2 to yavu.

Now of course, Rivera later gets outed, and that was excellent. During Night 3, Hosuke dies. I think it's interesting - and perhaps telling - that ItsHosuke was voting for his pal Temasek all of Day 3. This combined with the Frostwind stuff earlier is enough for me to give Temasek a B+1. Picking B here just because I think there's too many instances of other players fitting Team M better.

The Tom wagon I don't think is too enlightening. The 7 main people on it were Bozo, myself, Demon, Kitsune, purple, Rivera, and xorxes. I think Bozo voting for yavu before moving to Tom actually looks pretty good, and fits my theory that Bozo is not on Team M, nor xorxes, since yavu is likely Team M. Not worth points, just a note.

Bionic - [M4][B4][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M3][B3][J5]
yavu - [M9][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B2][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3]
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M2][B5][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B6][J5]
Vecna - [M5][B4][J5]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

End of Day 3 tallies.

[xorxes]

Why bozo is not a VT

bozo is not a FEMALE VT because:

If there are really only 4 female characters, I do not think we have to worry too much about the SK winning by way of their first win condition.

bozo is not a MALE VT because:

If there are really only 4 female characters, I do not think we have to worry too much about the SK winning by way of their first win condition.

There are female VTs too, I think

Was that clarified somewhere in the sign up thread? I thought I remembered reading that all characters not specified as female were male.

bozo is not a FEMALE VT (or he would heve known immediately that there were more than 4 females)

bozo is not a MALE VT (if he had read MALE VT in his role PM, he would have known immediately there were also FEMALE VTs)

bozo is not a NON-BINARY VT (because there are none included in this setup)

Therefore, bozo is not a VT of any gender. QED.

Current odds on bozo being scum are 5:1

[xorxes]

Vecna for some reason is being coy about giving a read on bozo.

[worcej]

GM Note:
For clarity, the VT PM sent out was the following:

You are a Vanilla Town!

Each day you must vote for a suspect. You are part of the town, and you win when both Mafia factions and Jack the Ripper are dead, or nothing can stop this from happening. You are (insert Male or Female depending on who received the PM).

[Vecna]

Vecna! Vecna, darling of my heart;
From this game I hope you not depart.
Regardless of scum or town,
I won't let anyone take you down.

But alas! There are scummy things seen,
such as your mildness (not to demean).

Usually the method, easy to find
is when you are not left behind.

Change from normal posting activity,
is almost always of scum proclivity.
Especially for you - fond of catch-up,
If without, it's scum meta match-up.

Not to mention, a type of sadness,
the utter lack of chaotic madness.
Where is the sassiness? the want to solve;
Your motivation has all but dissolved.

A creeping thought occurs - a ploy?
This dampened spirit, survival coy.
I suppose it's possible, so alright,
a delay in walls, 'til after tonight.

Gorgeous

[Chaqa]

This brings us to Day 4... AKA "that time we fucked up real bad"

A few big things happened:
1. Tom's falsified charge on purple
2. RHK's wagon/outing
3. The pushes on Bionic/Kalel/Chaqa/Flav
4. The final Kitsune wagon (RIP)

Unrelated, but - I went back to look as I was curious, and EMC not voting until late in the phase does fit his town meta. Just something to consider.

At the point Tom unveils his scheme - pretty early Day 4 - there's already votes on RHK from Bozo, Kalel, RHK himself, Temasek, and xorxes. This isn't all that odd since there had been discussion, but I wonder if there wasn't a plan for scum to come out of the gate swinging on RHK...

What's interesting about Tom's gambit is that Tom points out he wants to negotiate with purple, purple seems very confused by it all. Purple's reaction to this entire thing is... well, genuinely town. I'm dropping purple down to a 1 on all three tracks. Now, the people who follow along...

ND and xorxes early on. Xorxes claims to have known Tom's plan, but you never know with him. Temasek, Bionic, and Cmdr join in. Then myself and KIt before Tom retracts. I wish we had been able to see for sure yavu's reaction to this, but he does post this:

So awesome news. In fact, I did play a patented Tom Bombadil gambit and did not Cop scan rivera N1. I vanilla/non-vanilla scanned him and got non-vanilla and figured he was scum.

That means that tonight I was able to cop scan and got a GUILTY result for purple cow!!

So either mafia or SK

Hahah, we still have a gambler ha?
##vote purplecow
I still don't want to forget the case about RHK, that bozotheclown brought. If you would like to leave the 100% scum for tomorrow, I'm also fine with RHK as well.

Looking at the vote count, there are a lot of people reluctant to lynch purplecow. Are they trying to save the roleblocker? Best is the lynch today.

It's interesting that he wonders if they saved the roleblocker... Picking a specific role is quite odd. He also assumes that the scum is being saved, which really points to the fact he isn't on Team B.

Yavu almost certainly has to be the Moriarty Goon TBH.

A lot happens with RHK's claim and the mess of wagons. RHK claims Commuter when he's up 5-2 over Flav and Purple. A bit odd but it was good to get ahead of the issue and give us time to consolidate. Tom follows RHK onto Kalel to form a wagon. After Flavius catches up and some other shuffling happens, we get to this point:

Bionic (3): Temasek, Vecna, xorxes
Flavius (2): Dargo, purple
Demon (2): Bozo, Kalel
Kalel (2): RHK, Tom

There's a few misc. votes. ND voting for Cmdr, Kit voting for Bozo, a Purple vote here and there leftover, but these are the big wagons (plus mine and KItsune) for the rest of the day.

I vote to Bionic, Flavius votes me, Bozo votes Bionc, Bionic votes me. Leaves us at:

Bionic (5): Bozo, Chaqa, Temasek, Vecna, xorxes
Flavius (2): Dargo, Purple
Kalel (2): RHK, Tom
Chaqa (2): Bionic, Flavius

Cmdr follows the town clears onto Kalel. Kalel votes for me. I find it a little odd he didn't vote for Bionic. He claims this:

-- snipped --

Alright, this is enough for me to move my vote. Bionic still shows as townie on my spreadsheet.

I was going to move to Flav (if nothing else to cut down on the noise), but his last couple of posts actually helped me think things through.

I was saving this one since the ND vs. Fakeclaim fight, but it's the best my conscious will let me do.
##Vote Chaqa

Nebulous spreadsheet comment again. Looking back, in this post:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... d=w:117872

Kalel claims he did a Night 2 ISO that cleared Bionic... which does exist!
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... d=w:116682

This eases my fears of Kalel *slightly* with regards to this vote... continuing on.

EMC and Demon start the Kit wagon. I had been discussing it as well. Now, the only world where it makes sense for EMC to lead this wagon as scum is if Bionic is also scum. Due to this - EMC should only be lynched on suspicion of being scum if Bionic has already flipped as scum.

Temasek votes for kit but moves back to Bionic. I actually think this is a pro-town tell on Temasek, or at least neutral - it probably means he isn't Bionic's teammate, though, which is just another reason to lynch Bionic - if Bionic is scum, Tem isn't scum. If Bionic is town, EMC isn't scum.

Now, as we know, there's an 11th hour pile-on Kit. Many of these voters come fromthe Bionic wagon. I don't think there's much to be made of it, but I think scum would likely have either stayed on their own wagons or jumped, but not from my wagon, which makes Kalel, Flavius, and Bionic look a little better.

Bionic - [M4][B4][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M3][B3][J5]
yavu - [M9][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B2][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3] - Scum if Temasek is
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M1][B1][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B6][J5] - Not Scum with Bionic
Vecna - [M5][B4][J5]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

This is about where I'm at for now.

I 100% think Yavu is the Moriarty grunt.

Beyond that, raw numbers added across all columns point to the best lynches being Yavu, Temasek, Bozo, Bionic.

[Chaqa]

Why bozo is not a VT

bozo is not a FEMALE VT because:

If there are really only 4 female characters, I do not think we have to worry too much about the SK winning by way of their first win condition.

bozo is not a MALE VT because:

There are female VTs too, I think

Was that clarified somewhere in the sign up thread? I thought I remembered reading that all characters not specified as female were male.

bozo is not a FEMALE VT (or he would heve known immediately that there were more than 4 females)

bozo is not a MALE VT (if he had read MALE VT in his role PM, he would have known immediately there were also FEMALE VTs)

bozo is not a NON-BINARY VT (because there are none included in this setup)

Therefore, bozo is not a VT of any gender. QED.

Current odds on bozo being scum are 5:1

Xorxes - I'm curious. Your VT PM, the male/female part, EXACTLY how was it formatted? Choose one of these:

male/female
Male/Female
MALE/FEMALE

No one else respond to this. I want to know what xorxes says.

[Chaqa]

Why bozo is not a VT

bozo is not a FEMALE VT because:

If there are really only 4 female characters, I do not think we have to worry too much about the SK winning by way of their first win condition.

bozo is not a MALE VT because:

Was that clarified somewhere in the sign up thread? I thought I remembered reading that all characters not specified as female were male.

bozo is not a FEMALE VT (or he would heve known immediately that there were more than 4 females)

bozo is not a MALE VT (if he had read MALE VT in his role PM, he would have known immediately there were also FEMALE VTs)

bozo is not a NON-BINARY VT (because there are none included in this setup)

Therefore, bozo is not a VT of any gender. QED.

Current odds on bozo being scum are 5:1

Xorxes - I'm curious. Your VT PM, the male/female part, EXACTLY how was it formatted? Choose one of these:

male/female
Male/Female
MALE/FEMALE

No one else respond to this. I want to know what xorxes says.

This question can also go our to Bozo I suppose.