MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[rdrivera2005]

Town
Brain
Xorx
Kitsune
EMC
Bunny

Townlean
Damo


Scumlean
Food
Jamie
Kalel

Scum
Espresso
Rdr

Just some from the top of my head

Hang on...

@Nepthys only please did you not just three posts previous say:

This post is limp. There is little point to it.

Xorx is my prime Thanos candidate. He seems lacking in the final sentence on all his posts that sum things up. Its like he buys the present, wraps it up then lets someone else give it to the recipient.

So why is Xorx Town now in your summary list?

I'm not accusing you of contradicting yourself (I'd hardly dare at this point ) but can you explain why he's not on the list with Espresso and Rdr?

Are you listing Scum and meaning Mafia, or is Thanos/SK on a different list in your head?

Separate Q @anyone:

When I was reading the roles before the game I got the (possibly false) impression that Mafia would be mostly striking by night and trying to hide during the day, while the Serial Killer would be trying to push and control the lynch as his primary weapon, especially before he gets the Soul Stone from Gamora.

Is this wrong, or at least not how it's been played in previous games?

Is that a reason to look for different behavior from Mafia-scum and SK-scum, and if so what would ping differently?

This doesn't make much sense. Mafia try to act exactly like a towny during day to blend in and not be identified. And SK needs to play a long run game, so I am not sure if he will be driving the lynches. I have never been third party but I then I would try to play the same as town trying to catch Mafia as it's the easiest way to last long.

[foodcoats]

Hey brainbomb why did you vote bozo? You voted naked then posted somethingsomethingThanosscarynotiemewantie.

[Kitsune]

...oh that's irritating. I'd almost written up the post, and my browser just spazzed out and killed it. Let's try again.

Thanks Brainbomb for your excellent analysis and review of the late Bozo’s wagon (well most of it - I’m looking forward to reading Spotlight on Kit when it comes out soon). I appreciate not just the extra perspective it gives us on the other voters for this game, but also that you’ve taken the time to explain enough of your reasoning that I feel it’s helped me see what else we can tell from conversation patterns now that we have some concrete actions to measure them against. Hopefully this will help me in future games (yes stop laughing Ike, I know you were right) as well.

For anyone not clear on what I’m referring to, these can be found here:

BB & Espresso - https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... 69#p104369
Kalel - https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... 73#p104373
Nepthys - https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... 78#p104378
Bunny - https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... 79#p104379

While I refuse to be totally sheeped, I’m revising my read on Espresso to null at this point. He does still seem to me to be trying to puzzle this together as much as the rest of us, but you drew my attention to a few points I’d overlooked in my original analysis.

@Espresso would you care to rebut?

[foodcoats]

Espresso claimed sheeping the bozo wagon out of ND wagon mistrust.

EP can you explain who/what/why you disliked about the ND wagon? If it wasn't from reads of the targets, what reads of the voters influenced your decision?

[e.m.c^42]

Separate Q @anyone:

When I was reading the roles before the game I got the (possibly false) impression that Mafia would be mostly striking by night and trying to hide during the day, while the Serial Killer would be trying to push and control the lynch as his primary weapon, especially before he gets the Soul Stone from Gamora.

Is this wrong, or at least not how it's been played in previous games?

Is that a reason to look for different behavior from Mafia-scum and SK-scum, and if so what would ping differently?

Not necessarily, and yes, I think there'd be a difference, especially as mafia and sk have different goals and wincon.

For first part would say it really depends on the person playing - some as SK would try to push for town leader, others would try to blend into background, or try to appear scummy as to avoid being outed by missed NK, etc... and same for mafia - for me hiding towards day as scum is boring, it's much more fun to talk a lot, but there are definitely those who lurk, and so forth. SK doesn't necessarily have any motivation to lead lynch at all, simply just being on whoever is lynched that day is good enough most of the time (so in this case my meta would be unfortunate, and so forth for others)

[foodcoats]

##VOTE ND

I don't like the Bozo lynch. I think this is generally in line with town Bozo.

Did you just not like lynching bozo, or were there any suspects on the wagon from your perspective Fox?

[foodcoats]

##VOTE Bozo

RE: A lot of posts collecting data from others, but the goal seems to be just to stir the pot. I have to admit most of this is based more on who isn't and who is voting for them/others.

Kalel can you explain the second sentence better? Did you mean you suspected bozo because of your trust and/or suspicions of someone else? If so who and why?

[e.m.c^42]

Otherways, somewhat agree with Kalel assessments so far, but the fact that he is new is still staying him from going to scum from null, as how...obvious he's been acting may be just cluelessnoob!lhf, and easy to take advantage of

[foodcoats]

Tem Chaqa and darg all conveniently missed EOD by like an hour didn't they?

[e.m.c^42]

Maniac has not improved much from previous day as of yet imo

We shall see lol

[foodcoats]

Hmmm, 30 minutes before deadline maniac votes for EP, a mini wagon, and basically brings it into line with several 3/4 wagons.

Maniac did you intentionally want to cast a vote that would muddle rather than polarize the voting at this juncture?

[e.m.c^42]

Tem Chaqa and darg all conveniently missed EOD by like an hour didn't they?

Dunno, but can confirm Chaqa was streaming at least lol
Tem has understandable time zone, don't think he usually makes EOD (?)

and besides, most of EOD was absolutely still until bozo did his claim, and people jumped around literally last minute lmao

[Maniac]

Well, now it's tied.

Foxcastle, why do you say the vote is now tied but don't do anything to prevent it?

I think any townie would step off a wagon to prevent a tie so late on.
I think mafia scum would say nothing and let a tie happen.
I think the SK who knew it wasn't really a tie because of the power boast would notice the 'tie' and do nothing to prevent it.

I think you could be the SK.

[Maniac]

Hmmm, 30 minutes before deadline maniac votes for EP, a mini wagon, and basically brings it into line with several 3/4 wagons.

Maniac did you intentionally want to cast a vote that would muddle rather than polarize the voting at this juncture?

I always try and make a meaningful vote. I was at a quiz where i couldn't use my phone and then had a 30min+ drive home. I glanced at the site, realised my vote for xorxes was wasted so switched to Espresso. That brought Esp back into the frame. Perhaps we could get some info about late vote swapping when 3 or 4 are in the frame in the last 30 mins. IDK. If we do get any info from that it'll probably be much later in the game.

My main scum read was xorxes (and still is) and my second scum read was espresso, but that relies on xorxes being scum too.

[foodcoats]

My pool for Thanos is brain or xorxes. Both of them share the tendency to not live to endgame. Which Thanos needs to do.

Brain's analysis of xorxes in this light makes sense. But it also makes sense for brain.

That's something interesting, would explain why Brain looks so different this game.

brainbomb is very different this game and I'm surprised it is being accepted as a reformed brainbomb rather than a more cautious scum or SK brainbomb. brainbomb is exercising restraint. That's not a thing people do unconsciously.

[foodcoats]

Hmmm, 30 minutes before deadline maniac votes for EP, a mini wagon, and basically brings it into line with several 3/4 wagons.

Maniac did you intentionally want to cast a vote that would muddle rather than polarize the voting at this juncture?

I always try and make a meaningful vote. I was at a quiz where i couldn't use my phone and then had a 30min+ drive home. I glanced at the site, realised my vote for xorxes was wasted so switched to Espresso. That brought Esp back into the frame. Perhaps we could get some info about late vote swapping when 3 or 4 are in the frame in the last 30 mins. IDK. If we do get any info from that it'll probably be much later in the game.

My main scum read was xorxes (and still is) and my second scum read was espresso, but that relies on xorxes being scum too.

Okay fair enough.

In retrospect what do you think of the ND and bozo wagons? What do you think about xorxes parking on you? What do you think about EP voting bozo because EP didn't trust the ND wagon?

[rdrivera2005]

My pool for Thanos is brain or xorxes. Both of them share the tendency to not live to endgame. Which Thanos needs to do.

Brain's analysis of xorxes in this light makes sense. But it also makes sense for brain.

That's something interesting, would explain why Brain looks so different this game.

brainbomb is very different this game and I'm surprised it is being accepted as a reformed brainbomb rather than a more cautious scum or SK brainbomb. brainbomb is exercising restraint. That's not a thing people do unconsciously.

Brain was never cautious neither as town or as scum, so this change is NAI to me. Don't remember him being third party so this could be an explanation.

[Kitsune]

I don’t see a need to go over the same well-trodden earth that Brain just covered so well, and I appreciate the extra points from Tema and Nephthys,so I’ll leave the original analysis on the Bozo wagon to them (for now), but there was one other pattern I found interesting and wanted to call out for more experienced eyes to look over.

I’m doing my due diligence here, so please bear with me if the intro is a little slow.

Back in #931 Xorxes voted Maniac

Can we do Maniac?

##VOTE Maniac

This was in the heat of bozo’s survey and I didn’t pay it much attention at the time as Maniac wasn’t really on my radar beyond a general feel that he wasn’t contributing as much to the conversation as he could be. He’d drawn a “passively evil” read from me in the alignments several pages earlier (along with bozo, Espresso and Foxcastle) but hadn’t done anything to catch my attention since and I was soon caught up in self-analysis and talking with Nephthys.

Vapor added his vote at #934

yes, baby, we're on the same..boat?

##VOTE Maniac

Emc was the last player in this wagon, joining with some slightly odd reasoning. But plausible from what I know of emc ^_^

Everything fine so far, and it wasn't ever a leading wagon so just an interesting footnote until three minutes before the end of day one, when bozo announced:

You need to unvote me, I have the mind stone.

Brain was already concerned that if the vote was tied it gave all the power to the SK to decide who would get killed, but at that point we were at Bozo: 7 and ND: 6 - so the SK could choose to tie the vote, but it wasn't tied yet.

With one minute remaining Vaporwave swung his vote to ND in what was probably an attempt to save Bozo. Fox noted it was tied.

At 8 exactly (or whatever your local timezone is) the GM called End Phase and was immediately followed by two votes for ND from both emc and xorxes which came just too late to tip the balance the other way.

I'm prepared to give them all the benefit of the doubt in timing - bozo had presented us with a major threat at the last minute (the risk of losing the Stone) and none of the other players reacted quickly enough to change their votes at all.

What I find interesting is that they were so ready to. Was it sheer luck that the whole Maniac wagon was all on-hand to shift their vote and so willing to follow Vapor's lead in trying to save our errant Groot?

So @the wagon as a whole: Why did you vote Maniac originally? Do you still feel he's suspect?

@Vapor: Am I right that you decided that possible scum Maniac was less of a threat to town than losing the stone if bozo had been a stone-bearer? If not, what was your reasoning in abandoning the Maniac wagon with a minute to spare and balancing the tie?

@emc and @xorxes: What was your reasoning in both following Vapor's lead here so quickly? I'm fairly sure you weren't coordinating elsewhere (at least neither of you read scummy to my view) so does he have a meta habit of making the right call at the last second? Why did you abandon the Maniac wagon here?

tldr; I found it interesting that an entire small wagon abandoned their target within 1-2 minutes around phase end to swing to ND. My read of their messages at the time was that this was more pro-bozo (or at least bozo-claim) than anti-ND but I'd be interested in hearing their views in hindsight.

Sidebar: What happens in a tie result on webDip? The rules at game start don't say that I can see so I assume it's an understood ruling. Mafia wiki suggests either no one dies or keep revoting until someone is lynched.

[Temasek22]

I don’t see a need to go over the same well-trodden earth that Brain just covered so well, and I appreciate the extra points from Tema and Nephthys,so I’ll leave the original analysis on the Bozo wagon to them (for now), but there was one other pattern I found interesting and wanted to call out for more experienced eyes to look over.

I’m doing my due diligence here, so please bear with me if the intro is a little slow.

Back in #931 Xorxes voted Maniac

Can we do Maniac?

##VOTE Maniac

This was in the heat of bozo’s survey and I didn’t pay it much attention at the time as Maniac wasn’t really on my radar beyond a general feel that he wasn’t contributing as much to the conversation as he could be. He’d drawn a “passively evil” read from me in the alignments several pages earlier (along with bozo, Espresso and Foxcastle) but hadn’t done anything to catch my attention since and I was soon caught up in self-analysis and talking with Nephthys.

Vapor added his vote at #934

yes, baby, we're on the same..boat?

##VOTE Maniac

Emc was the last player in this wagon, joining with some slightly odd reasoning. But plausible from what I know of emc ^_^

Everything fine so far, and it wasn't ever a leading wagon so just an interesting footnote until three minutes before the end of day one, when bozo announced:

You need to unvote me, I have the mind stone.

Brain was already concerned that if the vote was tied it gave all the power to the SK to decide who would get killed, but at that point we were at Bozo: 7 and ND: 6 - so the SK could choose to tie the vote, but it wasn't tied yet.

With one minute remaining Vaporwave swung his vote to ND in what was probably an attempt to save Bozo. Fox noted it was tied.

At 8 exactly (or whatever your local timezone is) the GM called End Phase and was immediately followed by two votes for ND from both emc and xorxes which came just too late to tip the balance the other way.

I'm prepared to give them all the benefit of the doubt in timing - bozo had presented us with a major threat at the last minute (the risk of losing the Stone) and none of the other players reacted quickly enough to change their votes at all.

What I find interesting is that they were so ready to. Was it sheer luck that the whole Maniac wagon was all on-hand to shift their vote and so willing to follow Vapor's lead in trying to save our errant Groot?

So @the wagon as a whole: Why did you vote Maniac originally? Do you still feel he's suspect?

@Vapor: Am I right that you decided that possible scum Maniac was less of a threat to town than losing the stone if bozo had been a stone-bearer? If not, what was your reasoning in abandoning the Maniac wagon with a minute to spare and balancing the tie?

@emc and @xorxes: What was your reasoning in both following Vapor's lead here so quickly? I'm fairly sure you weren't coordinating elsewhere (at least neither of you read scummy to my view) so does he have a meta habit of making the right call at the last second? Why did you abandon the Maniac wagon here?

tldr; I found it interesting that an entire small wagon abandoned their target within 1-2 minutes around phase end to swing to ND. My read of their messages at the time was that this was more pro-bozo (or at least bozo-claim) than anti-ND but I'd be interested in hearing their views in hindsight.

Sidebar: What happens in a tie result on webDip? The rules at game start don't say that I can see so I assume it's an understood ruling. Mafia wiki suggests either no one dies or keep revoting until someone is lynched.

@Sidebar, no one dies

[Temasek22]

Tem Chaqa and darg all conveniently missed EOD by like an hour didn't they?

Dunno, but can confirm Chaqa was streaming at least lol
Tem has understandable time zone, don't think he usually makes EOD (?)

and besides, most of EOD was absolutely still until bozo did his claim, and people jumped around literally last minute lmao

EOD is 6 am in my time zone, I’ve only made it once