MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

OK, so...last night brainbomb messaged me at a really bad time and I responded badly (sick and kids bedtime was awful). But then while reading the thread I decided: I have no fucking clue the norms and inside meanings of everything people were saying in the opening comments. I also have no clue how the game changes when scum know who each other are in D1 AND CAN TALK TO EACH OTHER OFFLINE. This is soooo different than the game I normally play, I realized I couldn't approach it the same.

Townslip or scumcraft?

I noticed that too and I had the same doubt, but I think it can be read as saying they know who each other are in D1 and, on top of that, they can talk to each other (at night). I would welcome an explanation from BG on what exactly he meant there.

But he specifically said OFFLINE ??

[damo666]

BunnyGo
null
Very resistant to being pushed. Combination of questioning attitude, some volatility, apparent levels of capability... could either be earnest angry town, or carefully calculated scum. I feel like it's town but don't fully trust that yet as there are little pings that set me wrong.

I'm a mathematician. We are earnest, angry, calculated, and are hard to push because we always think we know better. Nobody likes us, and we have varied levels of capability depending on how much coffee we've consumed.

How come you couldn't work out the significance of my stats then?

[xorxes]

contrived to the nth degree

[...]

So now I'm thinking Vapor probably is a VT, as people claiming VT usually end up being VT. Claiming VT is still bad for town though. If you are a VT you should not be so desperate to save yourself that you need to claim, the claim does not really give town any info that town needs to have, and it does give scum info that they want to have, so bad all around.

Hmm, I remember scum!you giving me a hard time in Ace Attorney about claims despite being in a judge 1v1 against et.

Claiming VT absolutely gives info to town. As I wrote in Ace Attorney, I think town should always lynch, and sometimes it's better to lynch someone who's claimed VT over someone who may end up claiming a PR.

I take your point that VT claims are dangerous, however, as PRs have less cover. I disagree strongly that VT claims give no information to town.

Disagree, but it doesn't really matter. Having an opinion on this is not AI.

Lynching someone who has not claimed anything is no different from lynching someone who has claimed VT from the point of view of town, whereas from the point of view of mafia, someone who has believably claimed VT is one fewer person in the PR pool.

[xorxes]

Townslip or scumcraft?

I noticed that too and I had the same doubt, but I think it can be read as saying they know who each other are in D1 and, on top of that, they can talk to each other (at night). I would welcome an explanation from BG on what exactly he meant there.

But he specifically said OFFLINE ??

Why is that significant? I took that as meaning off the main thread, I doubt he meant in person or via phone.

[damo666]

Poker tonight (UK) so posting between now and EOD minimal if at all. Hopefully I will be able to monitor near EOD to look how the vote is going. Don't really care who goes apart from if I consider lead wagon to be town I will try and save.

[Foxcastle]

Going to give something a whirl...

##vote Foxcastle

He's in my grouping of possible scum and seems off atm. Much of his content is what people have done outside of here except EP, who he is on about. I think this is lazy!scum so far.

What do you mean "what people have done outside of here"? This seems contrived.

[Foxcastle]

I'm not going to be on again until the hour leading up until EOD.

I do not like either of the leading wagons based on my reads.

Hmmm...

A combination of trusting EP and thinking that it's unlikely Maniac or brainbomb wagons will develop means I will vote Foxcastle.

##VOTE Foxcastle

Can you explain what you mean by trusting EP? He admits he's basically OMGUS'ing everyone who's voted him so far. I am not even sure what his argument for me being scum is.

[xorxes]

OK then, I'm going to ##VOTE Espresso

I'm really sad because we were scumbuddies in the minimafia game and did great together, and I still feel some camaraderie towards EP because of that, but I think he is scum this time. This reads list is very empty, too many reads to say very little. Too manys "time will tell". Reads I especially dislike: bozo, rivera, Fox.

I see we have the gaslighting xorxes this game. Welcome back, old friend.

Two points in response:
1. How full did you expect the first half of D1 reads to be? Most people can't muster up more than like 5 lines total, and I think you're purposely ignoring the fact that this is a MACRO reads list. In other words, it's a reads list based on the game as a whole, rather than a more conventional reads list based on either individual interactions (micro) or a combination of micro/macro.

2. Per bb's suggestion, I think getting everyone's reads out before EOD is a great idea. It'll help lock scum into positions +/ form a basis for progression of reads. We can also do something similar to bozo's top 5 scum reads list in the apocalypse game, which was wildly accurate but poorly acted on.

Questions for you:
A. Specifically, why do you think bozo is scum?

B. Can you please post a reads list?

A. I suspected him because he was not giving me any hard time, which is not what has happened in my last experiences with him (even when I was town when I was inno child, that I had to spend way too much time fending him off).

B. I might when I finish catching up, but you can probably figure out what my thoughts on most people are so far from what I have already posted.

[Foxcastle]

I was going to wait until Espresso answered Neph's question of who EP thought was scum on his wagon, but apparently it's all of them!

Anyway, I've seen this from several people talking about scum piling on early wagons. I think that's very off. That's the opposite of blending, particularly when it's more likely that scum do not need to push a wagon at all when town is perfectly capable of mislynching while they sit back and watch.

[xorxes]

He started off early by analyzing the votes on Vapor. I don't recall town!bozo ever joking very much + this is consistent with his past play.

town!bozo doesn't let one word of mine go unchallenged, whether I'm town or scum, it's extremely annoying. This game I haven't even noticed he's here yet.

He lurked pretty hard in the early stages of one of m46 or m47 - I can't remember. He was town in both. I've successfully used this type of early game meta before -- see my teacon D1 townread in Ace Attorney.

Regarding bozo, I think you're confusing his prodding style with his mid/lategame play and/or his play in mini mafia. Most of bozo's big games start off as unremarkable D1s / D2s, but then he comes in clutch later.

In m47, for instance, he started with the massclaim idea and didn't do much besides that. By the endgame, he singlehandedly towncased me for everyone else + helped form a town block that almost helped us come back.

I think you may be right about bozo, it's not someone I would push to lynch on D1. For the time being I'm happy with just a scumlean on him.

[brainbomb]

I was going to wait until Espresso answered Neph's question of who EP thought was scum on his wagon, but apparently it's all of them!

Anyway, I've seen this from several people talking about scum piling on early wagons. I think that's very off. That's the opposite of blending, particularly when it's more likely that scum do not need to push a wagon at all when town is perfectly capable of mislynching while they sit back and watch.

this notion is why I think ND and chaqa might just be placeholder bussing while town rips into each other

[brainbomb]

ND didnt get angry with anyone else who voted him. only chaqa

[xorxes]

Was this a serious question, xorxes?

Why wouldn't it be? Or why would you doubt it was serious?

In what world would he ever say yes to this question?

It was so clearly a useless and disingenuous question that I couldn't believe you were serious.

It wasn't a terribly interesting question, but I don't see a problem with it either. At the time I was scumreading Vapor (now that has mostly... evaporated, but anyway) and I wanted to know if worcej was townreading him, as his wording suggested. Of course he would say yes if he thought Vapor was town.

[Foxcastle]

I was going to wait until Espresso answered Neph's question of who EP thought was scum on his wagon, but apparently it's all of them!

Anyway, I've seen this from several people talking about scum piling on early wagons. I think that's very off. That's the opposite of blending, particularly when it's more likely that scum do not need to push a wagon at all when town is perfectly capable of mislynching while they sit back and watch.

this notion is why I think ND and chaqa might just be placeholder bussing while town rips into each other

This is intriguing to me. I want to say that ND's low post count could be indicative, but he did say he hasn't had much time. Chaqa is generally in the low posters, I think?

[xorxes]

##Vote bozo

This was useful yes and I intended to bring it up when relevant. This was also used to success last game although both times the game has progressed significantly than it currently has. There is little point in doing it now and it is the definition of content for the sake of content

I can always join a bozo lynch.

##vote Bozo

Interesting that 50% of my top 4 scum reads chose to vote for me instead of participating in my survey. Only scum would want to avoid coming up with 4 scum reads. Your confidence level does not have to be high. List everyone from most likely to least likely scum, and take the first 4.

Is it at all likley that two scum would initiate a wagon on you? Are they trying to save Espresso (top wagon at the time) or what other motivation would they have for being so blatant?

[xorxes]

This feels like Fox’s first way to tell scum now.

He said they either try to blend well with the crowd and not make waves, or else they have a pet agenda that they try to push in spite of any opposition.

Why do you @bozo believe Nepthys thinks doing this survey now is a bad idea?

Separately, why is he wrong?

I believe Nepthys is saying he thinks everyone's read should be more accurate later, but that is no reason we should try it now as well. Since Nepthys is among my scum reads, I suspect he might be trying to kill the survey so he and his teammates do not have to go on record with their scum reads. The mafia typically do not want to scum read too many people if they can avoid it.

That doesn't sound likely. I think if scum don't like your idea they would probably just ignore it, not come out opposing it guns blazing. You're unlikley to get all 22 people to participate anyways. I think it's not extremely helpful (most people will give their reads whether it's done in a systematic organized way or not anyway, and if they don't then that's telliing too), but I don't see any harm in it either, unless you use it as cover for not doing anything else.

[BunnyGo]

BunnyGo
null
Very resistant to being pushed. Combination of questioning attitude, some volatility, apparent levels of capability... could either be earnest angry town, or carefully calculated scum. I feel like it's town but don't fully trust that yet as there are little pings that set me wrong.

I'm a mathematician. We are earnest, angry, calculated, and are hard to push because we always think we know better. Nobody likes us, and we have varied levels of capability depending on how much coffee we've consumed.

How come you couldn't work out the significance of my stats then?

Oh, I knew exactly what the numbers were (I'm a probabilistic number theorist...I taught probability at university). It's just they're mostly meaningless in any useful sense.

Can anyone really tell me an intuitive difference between 1/3000 and 1/5000? I can't. It's just something people comfortable with numbers use to intimidate people who are math-phobic and I fucking hate intimidating math-phobic people.

[BunnyGo]

@xorxes and @damo:

Xorxes interpretation is correct. Every mafia game I've played (and I've played A LOT) has been f2f. In all of them, nobody knows any other player's orientation in D1. This puts scum on equal footing with town.

In addition, the night phases are done silently with quick hand signals only and a moderator moving it along quickly. The only easy communication possible is whom to kill.

And yes, OFFLINE = where we can't see it.

[xorxes]

Here are the reasons for my top scum reads. Keep in mind it is early and there is not a lot to go on yet:

Vapor: I find him saying he is going to limit his posts suspicious. Also, he received 3 quick votes, that could be a sign of a teammate bussing him.

emc: He referenced his own meta, which I find is typically scum indicative.

rdrivera: Voting for 2 new players for vague reasons seems atypical for him as town.

Nephthys: This post seems like scum taking an easy shot, and it is not logically consistent:

Calling it now

Espresso/bozo scumteam

I could see Nephthys think Espresso is trying to pocket me, or think I am scum for other reasons, but scum almost never look like they are pocketing other scum.

The second reason for suspecting Vapor is horrible. The reason for suspecting emc is as weak as it can get. The reason for suspecting Neph is horrible.

I'm still unsure about rivera.

[damo666]

@Bunny ok on both counts. Thanks.