MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

Well, Dargo, I suppose...

@Maniac - vote for Vapor and vote end please.

Why you want a possible scum voting Vapor?

Mainly being cheeky.

The scumteam is Vapor, Maniac, Sulit, and either Kalel or Damo, IMO.

Wait.

Chaqa your whole fucking plan was based on no scum voting for the lead wagon.

I really really don't like you saying "I HAVE THIS EXACT PLAN AND TOWN MUST FOLLOW IT CAREFULLY" , and then just casually dropping a key element of said plan.

I challenge your claim to leadership.

##UNVOTE

[Jamiet99uk]

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

[Foxcastle]

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

So what's your solution to a last-minute space stone use that jets vapor out of the possible pool, leaving... who knows what to be the outcome.

[Chaqa]

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

I had to change the plan once Fox pointed out I had overlooked the space stone. As I said before to Maniac, the status quo is that scum already has the stones... so isn't a 6/8 or 7/8 of scum LOSING THE STONE worth taking?

As for knowing I'm town, if you think I'm scum at this point I don't know what else I have to do to convince you.

[Chaqa]

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

So what's your solution to a last-minute space stone use that jets vapor out of the possible pool, leaving... who knows what to be the outcome.

THANK YOU Fox. Honestly, Fox is pretty much coretown to me at this point.

[Chaqa]

@Jamiet -

If you go back and reread my plan, the goal is to:
1. Lynch Vapor while
2. Ensuring the SK doesn't gain any more stones and
3. Minimize the chance scum keeps the stone

In order to ensure #1 happens, we need to end vote, otherwise mafia will save Vapor with the Space Stone. In order to end vote, we need 8 people. I covered with reasoning why I chose the 8 people I did, with the caveat we can't 100% guarantee that all are not scum. That said, using my best information, I think I've chosen optimally.

#2 is a non-issue if I'm correct (which I think I am) that Kitsune or Kalel is the SK.

#3, as I laid out, we have a greater than 50% chance of the stone passing to town. Three of the people on the wagon are confirmed-ish town, with myself and Fox being very very likely town. Let's say TWO scum got into the mix somehow, that's still a 6/8 or 75% that the stone passes to town.

And this all assumes Vapor even has a stone, which isn't guaranteed, as scum would likely pass stones to their least-suspected member.

So all in all, I can't see any logical gaps in this plan that make it worse than any other play, because the mafia WILL use the Space Stone to save one of their own at the last possible second, a hammer is necessary.

[KalelChase]

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

Jamie,

You are the one I'm most sure is town, but not at 100% about anyone. If you have a plan and want to take the lead I'm happy to listen.

[Jamiet99uk]

Fuck it.

##Vote Vapor
##End

[KalelChase]

@Jamiet -

If you go back and reread my plan, the goal is to:
1. Lynch Vapor while
2. Ensuring the SK doesn't gain any more stones and
3. Minimize the chance scum keeps the stone

In order to ensure #1 happens, we need to end vote, otherwise mafia will save Vapor with the Space Stone. In order to end vote, we need 8 people. I covered with reasoning why I chose the 8 people I did, with the caveat we can't 100% guarantee that all are not scum. That said, using my best information, I think I've chosen optimally.

#2 is a non-issue if I'm correct (which I think I am) that Kitsune or Kalel is the SK.

#3, as I laid out, we have a greater than 50% chance of the stone passing to town. Three of the people on the wagon are confirmed-ish town, with myself and Fox being very very likely town. Let's say TWO scum got into the mix somehow, that's still a 6/8 or 75% that the stone passes to town.

And this all assumes Vapor even has a stone, which isn't guaranteed, as scum would likely pass stones to their least-suspected member.

So all in all, I can't see any logical gaps in this plan that make it worse than any other play, because the mafia WILL use the Space Stone to save one of their own at the last possible second, a hammer is necessary.

Chaq,

On #2... (since I'm sure I'm not SK), would that explain why Kitsune was 'banished' by scum? The D2 vote, when Kit was gone, was the first one not manipulated by the power stone. Could scum have even known Kit was SK at that point (otherwise it was just a lucky guess)?

Since Kit was on the Bozo wagon and bozo had no stone.

After ISOing Kit and looking at votes I can see the parallels in our posts/votes... lot of Meta conversation and with the exception of D1 when she was gone always hopping on the big wagon.

I'm moving over to Maniac in case Vapor is 'banished', but happy to join on main wagon if you need the vote.

##VOTE Maniac

[KalelChase]

@Jamiet -

If you go back and reread my plan, the goal is to:
1. Lynch Vapor while
2. Ensuring the SK doesn't gain any more stones and
3. Minimize the chance scum keeps the stone

In order to ensure #1 happens, we need to end vote, otherwise mafia will save Vapor with the Space Stone. In order to end vote, we need 8 people. I covered with reasoning why I chose the 8 people I did, with the caveat we can't 100% guarantee that all are not scum. That said, using my best information, I think I've chosen optimally.

#2 is a non-issue if I'm correct (which I think I am) that Kitsune or Kalel is the SK.

#3, as I laid out, we have a greater than 50% chance of the stone passing to town. Three of the people on the wagon are confirmed-ish town, with myself and Fox being very very likely town. Let's say TWO scum got into the mix somehow, that's still a 6/8 or 75% that the stone passes to town.

And this all assumes Vapor even has a stone, which isn't guaranteed, as scum would likely pass stones to their least-suspected member.

So all in all, I can't see any logical gaps in this plan that make it worse than any other play, because the mafia WILL use the Space Stone to save one of their own at the last possible second, a hammer is necessary.

Chaq,

On #2... (since I'm sure I'm not SK), would that explain why Kitsune was 'banished' by scum? The D2 vote, when Kit was gone, was the first one not manipulated by the power stone. Could scum have even known Kit was SK at that point (otherwise it was just a lucky guess)?

Since Kit was on the Bozo wagon and bozo had no stone.

After ISOing Kit and looking at votes I can see the parallels in our posts/votes... lot of Meta conversation and with the exception of D1 when she was gone always hopping on the big wagon.

I'm moving over to Maniac in case Vapor is 'banished', but happy to join on main wagon if you need the vote.

##VOTE Maniac

Jamie,

Would you join me on Maniac as the back-up plan? I think it fits your 'non-Chaq' plan.

[foodcoats]

I think this is the right play, but... are we comfortable with rdr on the wagon? I believe rdr is town, but I also believe the case for rdr to be SK is the strongest so far. If rdr is SK, it is possible they acquired the time stone off the yuuki lynch, and if Vapor is scum, there is a 50% chance they are holding a stone.

[foodcoats]

@Kalel I don't think you should be trying to build a counter-wagon. That just makes it EASIER for scum to flip it.

[KalelChase]

@Kalel I don't think you should be trying to build a counter-wagon. That just makes it EASIER for scum to flip it.

Fair enough... are you going to vote end?

##Vote Kalel

[KalelChase]

@Kalel I don't think you should be trying to build a counter-wagon. That just makes it EASIER for scum to flip it.

Fair enough... are you going to vote end?

##Vote Kalel

Then we just need Tem and Neph and it's done right? I really can't wait 1 day and 6 hours with this tension.

[Chaqa]

@Kal - no need for the Maniac vote yet, and we absolutely need Jamiet in the Vapor wagon.

@Food - we could swap sulit or maybe Damo for Rivera, I guess. But I really thin its a Kitsune.

Jamie, what do you think?

[Kitsune]

@Kal - no need for the Maniac vote yet, and we absolutely need Jamiet in the Vapor wagon.

@Food - we could swap sulit or maybe Damo for Rivera, I guess. But I really thin its a Kitsune.

Jamie, what do you think?

You’re wrong about me, but I don’t particularly need the extra shade for helping to lynch another top wagon, especially while I’m not wholly convinced he’s even guilty. I’ll follow your lead and trust to your calculations and your experience, but have you considered you could be wrong?

[Nephthys]

##vote vapor
##end

[foodcoats]

@Kal - no need for the Maniac vote yet, and we absolutely need Jamiet in the Vapor wagon.

@Food - we could swap sulit or maybe Damo for Rivera, I guess. But I really thin its a Kitsune.

Jamie, what do you think?

You’re wrong about me, but I don’t particularly need the extra shade for helping to lynch another top wagon, especially while I’m not wholly convinced he’s even guilty. I’ll follow your lead and trust to your calculations and your experience, but have you considered you could be wrong?

This could be wrong, but the problem is that if we are right about Vapor, scum can manipulate the mechanics of the game with the infinity stones to save Vapor, force another mislynch, and STILL not reveal the rest of the scum team, meaning we start tomorrow even further back than we are today.

[Chaqa]

##UNEND just so the SK can’t trigger this.

Just need Tem now.

[Chaqa]

@food - vote end so it’s up to me and Tem?