Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Durga]

i have this feeling flav is town

[rdrivera2005]

@Town,

Get your act together please. We are in this together (to my dismay)

We’re at 9-6-1. If you mislynch, you lose. It will be 7-6-1. You cannot win that scenario, I think. There would still be an outside chance that I could win, but it would be extremely remote, especially with Hooker alive. You’ve invested a lot of time insulting each other in all caps this game. All that time would go to waste if you do not put in the work now.

I have four suggestions:

1. I believe Town should claim all roles now. Information is more important than PRs staying hidden. I mean...why even stay hidden at this point? You must lynch correctly, or you cannot win. Now is the time for mass claims, and then using that data to put the entire puzzle together.

2. Also, I would not lynch anyone without at least a working theory of what the whole scum team could be. If you look carefully, there are pairings that you can rule out (e.g., Xorx/Percy, Peter/Flav, etc.). That kind of Process of Elimination is critical here.

3. Forget what you think you know. You don’t. You’ve got two mislynches, and you’ve seen six flips! (All Town). That is a ton of new data. If you are not going back to Day 1 and thinking about the game with all of that new data in mind, you are lazy, bad at this, or you don’t care.

4. Everyone should contribute to the discussion and make arguments about the scum team, but in the end we all sheep rdrivera. He is the rock solid Town clear. There are too many bad guys to mess with the votes at this stage. The only way to be sure Town sticks together is to follow the clear.

I am not completely sure about 1 and 2, but totally agree with 3 and also with 4, but I don't intend to lead until closer to EOD if needed. We need to do 3 like it's a regular day.

About 1 I don't see benefit on IC claiming and the Judge should not CC. Just wait for tomorrow and put Nephthys to the lynch.

About 2 I like it in theory, but trying to catch all scumteam without any flip is pointless so we should go for our best bet for scum. I would really like to lynch the Hooker, but it's not likely, so we focus on getting the first one.

[Percy Williams]

I change my mind

@Balki - please reveal your PR

Horrible idea. If it's Judge, we're basically fucked because we need that Judge to use his power one last time tomorrow.

I think Naomi should reveal. If it's innocent child, relaunch their power, we have less candidates who could be scum. If It's the judge, then Mafia has to choose between killing the reporter, which at this point is almost a cop, and killing the judge. Any other reveal is a scum that can be counterclaims if they fakeclaim. Octothorpe 1 priority is successfully lynching a Mafia member. At this point we can't afford not to.

[rdrivera2005]

I got to page 47 after spending hours reading D1 on Sunday and I have followed D3. My current scum list FWIW is: balki, teacon, percy, flav, chip. No I do not believe that Balki is the BA but this will be sorted by EoN...

I don't believe Flav and Chippe can be scum together. One of them maybe but unfortunately probably both are town....

[Durga]

i think teacon and xorxes are on the same team.

i think percy may or may not be on that team.

damo is probably scum, connor too, annnnnnnnnnnnd i have no idea who the last one is honestly. maybe its foxy knoxy

[et]

That's about it Nephthys, also imo
I think we should ignore lurkers, for now, there are too many at this point and I feel like we are taking a shot in the dark if we go after them, lets instead focus on active players where we got information and can find things out
If we get the active players we can then go for the lurkers
The current lurkers are
Xorxes
Percy
Connor
teacon
peterlund
damo

Their probably scum there, but honestly its not even worth going after them at this point, so lets go after someone else

We also can ignore Balki since the BA will take care of him
We can also ignore et since the two picks were likely town v town
We can also ignore rdrivera, I still think him revealing Balki so soon is silly but what you going to do

Flavius(me)
FoxCastle(scum)
Squigs
ND
Nephthys
Durga
Chippie

I think in this pot there's a few scum

@Flav
Do you think how many scums in 'Lurkers' ?
If 5 scums lurking, we are going to lose.
And am I more towny than Durga?
If you think so, please tell me why.

I think its probably an even split, if not most of the scum are lurkers
I just think its a shot in the dark if we go after them today, instead lets make them talk today and tonight and the next day, so we get enough information from them
Lets lynch with the info we know

Really even?
Nephthys, Durga, Squigs and you are in Active7.
Then, most of Fox, Chippe and ND are scum?
Why Chippe and ND wanted to lynch Fox?

[Durga]

i think teacon and xorxes are on the same team.

i think percy may or may not be on that team.

damo is probably scum, connor too, annnnnnnnnnnnd i have no idea who the last one is honestly. maybe its foxy knoxy

@rdr please lead a lynch on one of the above other than fox castle. thank youuuuuuu

[Balki Bartokomous]

Let's rule out some scum pairings:

1. Xorx/Percy
Reason: Xorxes was on Percy literally all Day 1, and the the time of the initial vote was early enough to start a wagon on him. Then Xorx voted Percy again at start of Day 2 until the Judge acted.

2. Peter/Flavius
Reason: Moscow did not do much on Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 4-3-3 over Bozo and TrPrado.

3. Foxcastle/Flavius
Reason: Foxy Knoxy did not do much Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 3-2-2-2, making the wagon much more likely to end as a leader.

[Durga]

xorxes was on percy but i don't recall i strong push.. or any push. i wouldn't rule out that pairing.

[rdrivera2005]

i think teacon and xorxes are on the same team.

i think percy may or may not be on that team.

damo is probably scum, connor too, annnnnnnnnnnnd i have no idea who the last one is honestly. maybe its foxy knoxy

@rdr please lead a lynch on one of the above other than fox castle. thank youuuuuuu

Like I said I intend to read (in fact I am ISOing some of the above and plan to re-read D1 and D2) and not lead until closer to EOD so people have to share his thoughts and not sheep.

[Squigs44]

xorxes was on percy but i don't recall i strong push.. or any push. i wouldn't rule out that pairing.

^
This

[rdrivera2005]

Let's rule out some scum pairings:

1. Xorx/Percy
Reason: Xorxes was on Percy literally all Day 1, and the the time of the initial vote was early enough to start a wagon on him. Then Xorx voted Percy again at start of Day 2 until the Judge acted.

2. Peter/Flavius
Reason: Moscow did not do much on Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 4-3-3 over Bozo and TrPrado.

3. Foxcastle/Flavius
Reason: Foxy Knoxy did not do much Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 3-2-2-2, making the wagon much more likely to end as a leader.

I rule out Flav/Chippe - I don't believe two scum would buddy the other the way they did.

[Squigs44]

Currently I'm thinking either damo or Xorxes should be lynched, maybe fox. Will do more in depth stuff after work.
I thought Percy, but last night I posted my analysis on him and I don't think he is our best lynch today.

[Balki Bartokomous]

xorxes was on percy but i don't recall i strong push.. or any push. i wouldn't rule out that pairing.

You think Xorx just spent the whole game voting his scumbuddy? I don't think so.

Where's Chippe?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Let's rule out some scum pairings:

1. Xorx/Percy
Reason: Xorxes was on Percy literally all Day 1, and the the time of the initial vote was early enough to start a wagon on him. Then Xorx voted Percy again at start of Day 2 until the Judge acted.

2. Peter/Flavius
Reason: Moscow did not do much on Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 4-3-3 over Bozo and TrPrado.

3. Foxcastle/Flavius
Reason: Foxy Knoxy did not do much Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 3-2-2-2, making the wagon much more likely to end as a leader.

I rule out Flav/Chippe - I don't believe two scum would buddy the other the way they did.

I think we can rule out ND/Chippe too, right?

[Durga]

xorxes was on percy but i don't recall i strong push.. or any push. i wouldn't rule out that pairing.

You think Xorx just spent the whole game voting his scumbuddy? I don't think so.

Where's Chippe?

sure why not. xorxes can't come up with reads as scum to save his life. might as well tunnel on a scum buddy that probably won't actually get lynched for a while

[Balki Bartokomous]

Let's rule out some scum pairings:

1. Xorx/Percy
Reason: Xorxes was on Percy literally all Day 1, and the the time of the initial vote was early enough to start a wagon on him. Then Xorx voted Percy again at start of Day 2 until the Judge acted.

2. Peter/Flavius
Reason: Moscow did not do much on Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 4-3-3 over Bozo and TrPrado.

3. Foxcastle/Flavius
Reason: Foxy Knoxy did not do much Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 3-2-2-2, making the wagon much more likely to end as a leader.

I rule out Flav/Chippe - I don't believe two scum would buddy the other the way they did.

I think we can rule out ND/Chippe too, right?

Definitely not Chippe/ND. I have a hard time thinking that any of ND/Flavius/Chippe are on a scum team together, or that any of them are scum, frankly.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think we can rule out et/connorcompton. I don't think that this kind of crossbussing is likely from newer players:

To be honest, I want to lynch connorcompton.
I don't have any read from him, but lyching other players is disrespecting of them.

I've been absent for a while, I needed a break.
Interesting choice from the judge there, two people I would have guessed were town. I am not going to be able to fully read up to date here for a while but I've read the last few pages, and EP seems just a bit more open and relaxed. So while this is definitely open to change, I'm going to cash in my ##VOTE et now.

[et]

How about ND/Fox?
ND's target is almost all 1 person.
So, I think ND and Fox are not buddy.

[Nephthys]

Y'all are dense. You have no choice but to acccept my claim. We are so screwed right now regardless.