MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[RagingIke297]

Good God I'm only 10 pages in....

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE damo666

[RagingIke297]

Re-read time! Posts I found interesting or liked:

Foxcastle, Vecna, RagingIke, are the three most lethal when scum

Would BB put three town in here to get some mislynches or would he sneak a scum in there for an I told you so?

My rule: Suspect all. Trust no one until a hard clear. Narrowing down to a list is mmkay but subjective to that player's individual bias or lack of bias.

Oh, I like this, I like it alot.

So at this time we are discussing the claim and several people have claimed already. Xorxes came up with the idea and Squigs has expanded on it/brought in the math...

Xorxes second plan is shit. Nobody else claim conservative or not.

His first plan was much better.

Hmmmmm......

Ok everybody I guess we need to talk about what makes a plan good in mafia.

For a plan to be effective, it needs to be impossible for mafia to fuck with it (if mafia fuck with it, their winrate goes down by more than letting the plan go through).

Think about how you would fuck up Xorxes plan if you were mafia. It's not difficult, and when you do it Xorxes plan has given town absolutely no information but has given scum information.

Compare it to the first plan. Think about how you would counter it as scum and what that would cost you.

What info does it give mafia? The only thing mafia is after is PR's, and since there are 2 cons, 4 non-cons among PRs, it doesn't help much. Also, how does mafia screw with the plan? Either they lie or tell the truth, and both gives town info.

The % of town that are PRs & conservative is lower than the & of town that are PR. By removing all of the conservative towns from the shot/RB pool, it increases scum's chances of hitting PR.

Squigs are you kidding me right now? What actionable information does town get if they lie? What if only 2 of them lie. What about three?

You see the problem with his new plan and why it's so shitty now?

Ezio with the "they're probably going to lie", I like it.

Actually, I like the second plan best. I will start: I am conservative.

I will vote for the last person to claim conservative, so if you are conservative town do claim early.

Just claim conservative if you are conservative (obviously don't say if you are PR or not) or non-consrvative if you are anything else (Labour/SNP/Non-party, don't specify).

The Party Cop should decide for themselves whether they claim conservative or non-conservative. They are the only town allowed to lie, whatever you think will keep you safer from a NK. They won't be scanning themselves anyway :)

Claiming conservative will put you at a higher risk of being lynched, but also at a lower risk of being NK'd, so that works perfectly for me.

If by EOD there are people that have not claimed conservative/non-conservative, I will vote someone among them.

what in the hell. That escalated quickly. WTF xorxes, why even go through the trouble of asking for opinions if youre gonna try to shove it in people's face anyway.

POWERWOLFING

zzz.

We threw away easy clears for a bunch of bullshit. We'll see how this goes rip.

I'm a conservative as I'm sure some of you picked up on after I said liberal instead of labor.

How did we throw away easy clears? We can still have a more specific claim for non conservatives later

Xorxes' first plan, the one that was thrown out shortly after, was a phenominal plan. We'd have all 5 of the labor backbenchers claim. If mafia don't CC we have 5 clears. If mafia do, which they will, we will know exactly how many mafia there are in the backbenchers pool and once they're found the rest are clears.

With this second plan it's gonna be impossible to know exactly how many mafia are on each side, so it's gonna be impossible to know when townies are clear.

Is there a reason to not mass claim in that side tomorrow?

this is bb town meta

bb being weird is also his scum meta. The difference here is that he hasn't tinfoiled once this game

All ive done is tinfoil so far. my townreads are colossal stretches of any reasonable imagination, damo, vapor, attorney, moscow

Really? Moscow? He posted once.....



30 Pages in, Xorxes had 2 competing ideas, Squigs worked out the math, BB rambled, I haven't fought with Durga yet. At this point there are 4 "Wagons" going 4 Att 3 Dur 3 bra 3 Vap, but there is still a full day of dialogue left

Reads coming in the morning, I'm tired

[Attorney]

I guess that dates me...

1980?!? My parents were like still single digits, what do you think the average player age here is?

I personally wouldn't know.
wait lol flash is basically four times my age

[Attorney]

aight
so as of now im actually scumreading neph less tbh
Vapor did claim pr
damo is posting only oneliners
i have many votes but I would just ask to wait for the party cop to scan me tonight before lynching me tommorrow.
##Vote damo66

[Tom Bombadil]

I don’t necessarily disagree with that plan, but I don’t love it either. To me, it comes down to whether or not you believe him.

He has lied once already (apparently). So let’s say he is scanned and it comes back as conservative. We then all immediately lynch him right? I wouldn’t exactly be shocked if he was town and just lied again.

We would learn if he lied but I get the impression lots of what he says is a lie, so I don’t know how scanning him will be tremendously more effective than another target

If Attorney is conservative, and none of the town conservative lied about their party, then this game is autowin for us since we can lynch all of the conservatives before mafia can kill off the non-cons. So yes, we lynch Attorney, and it doesn't even matter if he lied or not.

The only downside to this plan is if Party cop is killed or RB'd tonight. But then we can always decide what to do with Attorney later.

Well, no. The downside of this plan is that Attorney is probably a non-conservative who lied. We mislynch him, he flips non-con and we are back to square one.

I do understand the math of it, but I think its unwise to let that dictate the day when there is a very good chance he is a non-con.

[damo666]

What?

and it's 'favour' btw

It'll have to wait. It's now 2.22am. Got to get some shuteye.

I was gonna ask you to make an actually useful post about the game.

lol ok will do

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.6

Nephthys (4) - Ezio, Xorxes, ND, Percy Williams
Attorney (3) - Foxcastle, Nephthys, Durga
Flash (3) - Squigs, Rdrivera2005, Tom Bombadi
Damo666 (3) - Thamrick, Bozotheclown, Attorney
Tom Bombadil (2) - Vaporwave, RagingIke
RagingIke (1) - Flash
Xorxes (1) - Worcej

Damo666 and e.m.c^42 still need to vote.

Currently NEPHTHYS is scheduled to be given a stern telling off.

10 hours and 32 minutes remain in Day 2.

[damo666]

Will post a complete read list in an hour or two.

What is Attorney's current claim status? Hard to keep up.

[Vaporwave]

Not sure, damo

can't keep up with changes

iirc it's conservative

[damo666]

READ LIST

Attorney (non) I don't like his erratic style and retractions but I put it down to age related enthusiasm. I think he would be more cautious as scum. TOWNLEAN

bozo (non) I don't like his late vote switch tying it up but it only makes sense if both bozo and rdr are scum. However brain's vote of rdr is I think more likely to be self preservation than bussing. I think rdr and bozo will prove to be on the same team. TOWNLEAN for now.

damo (con) TOWN

Durga (con) Insufficient data. NULL

Einstein (non) Really no idea so nullish but given party claim TOWNLEAN

Ezio (con) un cc'd PM claim TOWN

Flash (con) Don't like some of his posts, on the scummy side. SCUMLEAN

Fox (non) Really scummy but party claim slightly puts me off a total scumread. However could be a non scum. Maybe DUP telling the truth? SCUMLEAN

Moscow/Tom (con) insufficient data - NULL

ND (non) insufficient data so should be Null but party claim nudges him towards TOWNLEAN

Neph (con) Townie posts but strange scumreads including too many nons. Maybe he didn't think it through. Hard to see a scum Neph providing such a list.
TOWNLEAN (for now)

Percy W (non) haven't a clue really but due to party claim TOWNLEAN

RagingIke (con) several scummy posts SCUMLEAN

rdrivera (con) see bozo TOWNLEAN

Squigs (non) his mathsy mechanics posts and goading me all fit town meta and with party claim to boot strong TOWNLEAN

Thamrick (non) as per PW TOWNLEAN

Vapor (non) un cc'd JC claim TOWN

worcej (non) early VT claim fits town meta strong TOWNLEAN

xorxes (con) cannot see a scum xorxes pushing his plan so hard - strong TOWNLEAN

So for my stab at the scumteam it's Fox Flash Ike and Durga

[damo666]

##vote flash

[Vaporwave]

##VOTE RagingIke

agree

[damo666]

##VOTE RagingIke

agree

agree with what Vapor?

[e.m.c^42]

Will post a complete read list in an hour or two.

What is Attorney's current claim status? Hard to keep up.

I think he hardclaimed noncon, actually

he hasn't retracted it yet, if I didn't miss anything

[thamrick]

@damo - can you point out specific posts of flash/Ike you find scummy?

[Vaporwave]

damo, agree that team might contain Ike, was looking back at bomb vs. Durga. vs Ike and it was a bit unusual

it might have been that he was more silent because bomb was a partner.

also, I know how bomb behaves as scum. He's smart enough not to spew 2 people town, only Durga comes out as town from this entire event

I'm entertaining the thought that Ike is indeed part of bomb's team.

[thamrick]

@EMC - what do you think of Neph's reads? Also, what do you think of Ezio's case against Neph? And what do you think of xorxes' case against Attorney?

Lol, response time! (gonna separate into different posts)

atm, rereading both of them, they're both scumreading each other rather hard ---so it's a bit difficult for me to shake the feeling that they're both biased lol
but that's not necessarily indicative of anything, other than they might be scum
reading each other...influenced by the fact that they scumread each other xD

This is a very circular statement. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that you think each of them is scumreading the other because the other is scumreading them? What do you think of each of their alignments? As far as the bolded part, what do you mean by "rather hard"? Can you elaborate?


[qoute]On Neph's reads, I do agree they're shallower than usual, but I was live when he started typing/posting; so the lack of time reasoning is plausible as an excuse.

for the EON wall; I will say that yes, what he said Ezio did did happen, but I'm not too sure about the scum part of it. Ezio taken early Day 1 is a bit meh, since I don't understand his mechanics (or why he thought the other plan was better, since it seemed to be based on faulty logic), although I can get his last post about Attorney/rdr that was referenced by Neph---the part about bb and Attorney treating it "like a ratrace", but it's a bit of selective focusing(?)

regarding the day 2 nephsWall extends Ezio, none of it is particularly outrageous. However, I don't really like how he goes " couldn't give less of a shit who you are voting", but do agree with the motivations aspect. And again, Neph focused on the 2nd part of Ezio's reasoning for voting Attorney then, which I took to be mainly due to the "ratracing" and "worry over 2nd wagon"---but what Neph focused on I do agree with, don't really see how asking quiet players to come online be scum indicative, especially as Attorney hasn't played with the majority of players here.
[/quote]

What don't you like about that statement?

On Ezio's case, a large part of his credence seems to come from his PM claim--which I'll believe (but not trust...won't trust any claims unless it's in a post from GM :))

His main point is that Neph's analysis of him is really bad/makes no sense, and "indicative of scum trying to fake a reads list"---which feels a bit like overreacting to me. That's not to say that Neph's reasons were particularly good, but not understanding it at all/misunderstanding the rest of his responses seems to be a thing---comprehension compatibility issues? or something else, idk

What makes Ezio's point really bad? What do you see as Ezio's main point?

However, (prolly NAI, but the thought occurred so here it is), the way Neph responded with that he's a bit pissed at his posts being overlooked---iirc it was something he did once to get townread both as a genuine emotion and as a tactic---@Neph perhaps you can try simple.wikipedia'ing it? XD

so all in all I think it's partially caused by misunderstanding each others points (or selectively reading), and scumreading as a result, but am waiting to see how they continue to respond, since I could be the one misemphasizing parts.

[thamrick]

Oh my. Sorry for the above. Edited for correct formatting below.

@EMC - what do you think of Neph's reads? Also, what do you think of Ezio's case against Neph? And what do you think of xorxes' case against Attorney?

Lol, response time! (gonna separate into different posts)

atm, rereading both of them, they're both scumreading each other rather hard ---so it's a bit difficult for me to shake the feeling that they're both biased lol
but that's not necessarily indicative of anything, other than they might be scum
reading each other...influenced by the fact that they scumread each other xD

This is a very circular statement. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that you think each of them is scumreading the other because the other is scumreading them? What do you think of each of their alignments? As far as the bolded part, what do you mean by "rather hard"? Can you elaborate?

On Neph's reads, I do agree they're shallower than usual, but I was live when he started typing/posting; so the lack of time reasoning is plausible as an excuse.

for the EON wall; I will say that yes, what he said Ezio did did happen, but I'm not too sure about the scum part of it. Ezio taken early Day 1 is a bit meh, since I don't understand his mechanics (or why he thought the other plan was better, since it seemed to be based on faulty logic), although I can get his last post about Attorney/rdr that was referenced by Neph---the part about bb and Attorney treating it "like a ratrace", but it's a bit of selective focusing(?)

regarding the day 2 nephsWall extends Ezio, none of it is particularly outrageous. However, I don't really like how he goes "(I) couldn't give less of a shit who you are voting", but do agree with the motivations aspect. And again, Neph focused on the 2nd part of Ezio's reasoning for voting Attorney then, which I took to be mainly due to the "ratracing" and "worry over 2nd wagon"---but what Neph focused on I do agree with, don't really see how asking quiet players to come online be scum indicative, especially as Attorney hasn't played with the majority of players here.

What don't you like about that statement?

On Ezio's case, a large part of his credence seems to come from his PM claim--which I'll believe (but not trust...won't trust any claims unless it's in a post from GM :))

His main point is that Neph's analysis of him is really bad/makes no sense, and "indicative of scum trying to fake a reads list"---which feels a bit like overreacting to me. That's not to say that Neph's reasons were particularly good, but not understanding it at all/misunderstanding the rest of his responses seems to be a thing---comprehension compatibility issues? or something else, idk

What makes Ezio's point really bad? What do you see as Ezio's main point?

However, (prolly NAI, but the thought occurred so here it is), the way Neph responded with that he's a bit pissed at his posts being overlooked---iirc it was something he did once to get townread both as a genuine emotion and as a tactic---@Neph perhaps you can try simple.wikipedia'ing it? XD

so all in all I think it's partially caused by misunderstanding each others points (or selectively reading), and scumreading as a result, but am waiting to see how they continue to respond, since I could be the one misemphasizing parts.

[thamrick]

damo, agree that team might contain Ike, was looking back at bomb vs. Durga. vs Ike and it was a bit unusual

it might have been that he was more silent because bomb was a partner.

also, I know how bomb behaves as scum. He's smart enough not to spew 2 people town, only Durga comes out as town from this entire event

I'm entertaining the thought that Ike is indeed part of bomb's team.

What I found strange about that exchange is that brain chose to attack Durga in the first place. They have had issues in the past and from the last few times I've played with them, brain tends to be hyper-vigilant about not pissing off Durga (regardless of alignment) - though he's not very good at it. For scum brainbomb, what I find strange is that he chose to go after Durga. I could see him knowing Durga would look better from the exchange and he sacrificing himself. I could see it legitimately being a case of brain being defensive of his oog friend Ike and it being NAI. I have trouble seeing it being brain defending scummate Ike by attacking town Durga.