MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[xorxes]

Seems like the day is revolving around Neph and Attorney.

Any conservative is fair game, except Ezio (PM), me (roleblocked, which gives me at least temporary immunity) and Attorney (probably fake retraction but no harm in waiting one day).

Everyone should be voting in:

Durga
flash
rivera
damo
Ike
Neph
Tom

I genuinely dislike how you excluded yourself.

You really don't think the roleblock claim is enough to exclude me from today's lynchpool?

And lynching Attorney today is silly. Even if it's pretty certain he is scum, there's a small chance he is telling the truth, and we still will need to get rid of conservative unclears anyway, so what's the rush?

[Durga]

GM NOTE

Excuse the lack of a VC in the last while; busy day.

It appears to me that the Peterbot is correct. Any urgent GM calls let me know.

Day 2 ends in 25 hours and 40 minutes and Nephthys is scheduled to be got rid of.

Kudos for doing this without a co-gm btw. Very much appreciated

[Durga]

Did attorney explain why he lied. I can't think of a town reason for lying.

[Ezio]

The only reason for me to suspect it's not auto-win is that scum have not conceded yet, but maybe it's just because they haven't had a chance to talk it among themselves.

We should absolutely execute the plan assuming it's auto win, but I don't want everyone to get complacent here.

Correct, if we get complacent we start thinking crazy things, like Xorxes is town

Ike. Buddy. The arguments you've made have not been that it's "likely" Xorxes is town. The arguments you've made have been it's "possible" for Xorxes to be town.

You're going off the deep end here. Frankly I like it. What I want you to do is see if a Scum! Xorxes has defended any non-con in particular. See if he's made any defenses that are inconsistent with some of his arguments OUTSIDE of the conservative pile.

We are going to lynch every conservative before we lynch any non-con so if Xorxes is scum we will absolutely catch him.

[Ezio]

Did attorney explain why he lied. I can't think of a town reason for lying.

The theory was that by increasing the conservative pool size we would decrease the chance mafia hit the party cop.
The language he used was "i claimed to add noise to conservative pile"

[worcej]

Now see, thats dumb. Let's not make it easier for scum please, tnx

Also, I don't want to lynch Xorxes, at least not yet, he's more of a day 5 lynch

I don't want to make it any easier for scum, but if other non-cons like Squigs want to entertain the theory, the only actual hard-proof I have of my role is the eventual flip.

Xorxes is in a pool of 8 with 3 scum in them. If he was non-cons, I would not have the same strength in opinion as I do now, but I wouldn't remove the theory. Strong town play, like what Tom and Darg did last game, have been 100% about embracing theories and going with it.

Trust me, I am used to being ignored in Mafia games. And as I said in my first comment, I was going to wait and see how these days play out before bringing this up, but Ike beat me to that one.

[worcej]

[snip]
We are going to lynch every conservative before we lynch any non-con so if Xorxes is scum we will absolutely catch him.

The problem is if he's the last one hit it could be too late.

[Ezio]

[snip]
We are going to lynch every conservative before we lynch any non-con so if Xorxes is scum we will absolutely catch him.

The problem is if he's the last one hit it could be too late.

Explain

[xorxes]

Did attorney explain why he lied. I can't think of a town reason for lying.

The theory was that by increasing the conservative pool size we would decrease the chance mafia hit the party cop.
The language he used was "i claimed to add noise to conservative pile"

Yes. The problem is that he claimed conservative before I suggested that, as an improvement to the original plan, some noncon might consider claiming conservative. I didn't really want that to happen, but just seed the doubt in the Mafia's minds that it may happen, so that the Party Cop could be found in either camp.

Now it is possible that Attorney had all these ideas that he never shared about fakeclaiming to confuse the Mafia, and if his conservative claim had come after I made the suggestion, well, maybe the retract would be more believable. But the obvious candidates for fakeclaiming were the PRs who could prove themselves town if needed, not a backbencher that couldn't.

So no, his retraction is not believable, but still we don't need to lynch him today.

[xorxes]

Did attorney explain why he lied. I can't think of a town reason for lying.

The theory was that by increasing the conservative pool size we would decrease the chance mafia hit the party cop.
The language he used was "i claimed to add noise to conservative pile"

Yes. The problem is that he claimed conservative before I suggested that, as an improvement to the original plan, some noncon might consider claiming conservative. I didn't really want that to happen, but just seed the doubt in the Mafia's minds that it may happen, so that the Party Cop could be found in either camp.

Now it is possible that Attorney had all these ideas that he never shared about fakeclaiming to confuse the Mafia, and if his conservative claim had come after I made the suggestion, well, maybe the retract would be more believable. But the obvious candidates for fakeclaiming were the PRs who could prove themselves town if needed, not a backbencher that couldn't.

So no, his retraction is not believable, but still we don't need to lynch him today.

Plus, of course, it made no sense to retract when he did. If he wanted to confuse the Mafia, why retract?

[Durga]

Why aren't we just getting rid of him then? He could be rb or something

[bozotheclown]

Where are Tom and Bozo and Foxy? 8 posts between the three of them today? C'mon guys get in here, we need some new eyes looking at my theory

xorxes is not clear and will be lynched eventually if we make it through all of the conservative claims, but I highly doubt xorxes would push the conservative/non-conservative claim idea when he would have no idea how the other mafia would claim and no way to tell them the best way to claim.

[worcej]

[snip]
We are going to lynch every conservative before we lynch any non-con so if Xorxes is scum we will absolutely catch him.

The problem is if he's the last one hit it could be too late.

Explain

Lazy math time: If the last conservative we lynch is Xorxes, and he is scum, then you know it's 4 non-cons going into the night. Then it comes down to the final 3 to figure it out.

[xorxes]

Why aren't we just getting rid of him then? He could be rb or something

Let's say there's a 5% chance he is noncon town. Then mislynching him would be a big mistake.

Mislynching a conservative backbencher, OTOH, is no big deal, it's part of what we have to do to catch all the Mafia. So today we either lynch a scum or, at worst, mislynch a conservative backbencher. No risk there of making a mistake.

[Ezio]

The problem is if he's the last one hit it could be too late.

Explain

Lazy math time: If the last conservative we lynch is Xorxes, and he is scum, then you know it's 4 non-cons going into the night. Then it comes down to the final 3 to figure it out.

Yes and then they lynch him and town wins.

[e.m.c^42]

How about instead of defending someone you try to tell us why it would be better to vote someone else. What makes someone else more scummy than Neph?

Dunno, don't really have any better ideas yet/serious ideas :'D

will bring them up once I think it.

I was partially bringing up counters for discussion purposes and partially because the Neph votes came in rather quickly iirc---right around Ezio's claim.

Regarding Attorney, I have a vague feeling he's town, if only because I don't think he's stupid enough to act like this as scum---but his actions so far haven't been very constructive for town, making it not too large of a loss if he dies lol.

however, I don't see why (to those who are null or scumreading him) say it would be better for cop to scan him, since without outing themselves we won't get that information for awhile, unless there's some eu negotiator + secretary appointing luck----in other words, thinking that Attorney is insignificant enough to be skipped over for scummier people currently? Or is the reasoning something else, lol.

[e.m.c^42]

haha lol brb

it's been an hour, are you back to explain yourself now? xD

or at least attempt to explain the reasoning of why you're doing what you did haha

[ND]

I think Xorxes being this active and setting up this plan to the extent he did speaks to the extremely high probability that he is town. Xorxes, historically in the meta, is pretty inactive and also not generally helpful as scum. Definitely think he is town.

We should also be focusing on the con list for votes, at least for today. The non-con pile can be looked at as well but we know the bulk of the scum remaining are in the con pile not noncon one.

Those are my thoughts

[Nephthys]

Attorney was spamming the thread day in and day out and then suddenly stopped.

##vote attorney

For the record I think it's very likely Attorney is scum. However, we can guarantee that with a scan with the party cop tonight. I don't think anyone has lied about their alignment so I don't think the party cop has the potential to do anything else.

For that reason, I don't think we should lynch Attorney today and instead focus our efforts on people that are harder to clear.

Can we though? What if Attorney was the non-cons scum now realised he has to change back?

[Nephthys]

Here's the thing I don't get.

Almost everyone thinks Fox is scum. Literally the only thing saving him is that he claimed non-con. I think that if we let him live then we just give him more time to improve his play and try to cover it up. If we lynch Fox then its auto.

I know I'm going to be lynched sooner or later, I'm conservative. I knew that when I claimed it and I expect nothing less, that being said, if Ezio wasn't a PR then his case would never have gotten this much traction. More likely actually that he would be my competing wagon if my wagon formed at all.