Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

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Balki Bartokomous
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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#941 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:45 pm

Vecna wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:32 pm
Sure. Help me understand your read on FoxCastle a bit more indepth.
Okay. I’m planning to finish my re-read today (I’m about halfway through), and then I’ll have some bigger picture thoughts.

Ezio
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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#942 Post by Ezio » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:45 pm

Vecna wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:19 pm
Ezio wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:46 pm
Vecna wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:15 am


Town dont care about this also btw. Its just scum Xorxes trying to make a mental note on how he can succesfully fool people, since he's been less effective in that in the past.

You're just wrong here. Not only are people just curious when lunatics make crazy claims outta nowhere, but it even is optimal for town to care.
Town likes to know other people's reasoning to analyze it. If the "magic words" were shitty/useless/not real I'd imagine it would affect his read of me.
Did he ever follow up on it? Did he ever give you any indication he was suspicious about your alignment and that he was trying to sort you?

My point was that -town XORXES- normally doesnt care about such frivolous small details. He thinks in the big lines, just lets you post, and makes up his own mind on the sidelines.

Even if you disagree with my reasoning, do you also disagree with the conclusion? Still waiting for you to reveal why you suddenly had that epihany (which I believe is wrong).

I disagree with anything scimreadojg xorxes. I am not going to say what I saw. I will only say what I saw if it's confirmed to be wrong, but it hasn't been wrong yet.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#943 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:50 pm

Ezio wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:45 pm
I disagree with anything scimreadojg xorxes. I am not going to say what I saw. I will only say what I saw if it's confirmed to be wrong, but it hasn't been wrong yet.
Ezio, can you just make clear before EOD whether your Xorxes read is based on your own deduction, or based on a power role? Because our roles are not revealed when we flip, this is very important.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#944 Post by Ezio » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:53 pm

Lol. I'm not claiming, but you can assume I am. I said that yesterday.

I'm gonna ##vote bozo. I'll make my case when I'm back from work. It's not gonna be a good one.
If so lvr excited for today to be me vs balki, or bozo vs balki.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#945 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:23 pm

Vecna wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:53 am
...snip...
That leaves these 5 slots that I think contain all scum:
Balki Bartokomous
Damian
Rdrivera2005
Squigs44
xorxes

...snip...

Balki is just in full on scummode. Trying to ask for a mass-claim. Poking at Ezio's words to try and frame it in a pro-scum way. He came on before EOD, asked for people about a potential vote, probably saw that Squigs was gonna be alright, so he just vanished.

I personally think the scum is Balki + squigs + one of (Damian/Rd/Xorx/Ghug/Bozo)
@Vecna, here is an example of some reasoning you have on me in this game. Does the Squigs flip impact your view at all?

If I'm voting for someone, you seem to analyze it like this: "Well, if that someone is scum, then Balki is likely scum bussing them. If that someone if town, then it looks like Balki is trying to get an easy mislynch."

When I am trying to save someone, you seem to analyze it like this: "Looks like Balki is trying to save his scum buddy."

You don't seem to consider what Town!Balki might be up to, or why he might be trying to lynch some folks and save others.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#946 Post by damian » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pm

Reading Balki's reactions going through his re-read it feels like he's trying to hunt for townreads. Rather than scum hunting. Seems scummy to me.

Also I don't love the way he's buddying me, complimenting my colour question, reassuring me he isn't reading me as scum before asking a question. I feel like he's trying to woo me. And I'm hella skeptical.

Feels like he's trying to pull off something similar with Vecna. Trying to shift him to a let's talk about it. Town-Balki is such a good friend.

Currently leaning one of Balki, Fox or Ezio for my vote.

Maybe Bozo, but I can't help but feel his "Does this mean we can count on Xorxes to vote Squig" would go in his scum chat. If he had one. So I'm not totally sure about him.

I still like an RDR-Fox pairing is plausible. But of the two Fox is scummier, and RDR not voting in a way to save myself is shaking my read of him.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#947 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pm

Ezio wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:53 pm
Lol. I'm not claiming, but you can assume I am. I said that yesterday.

I'm gonna ##vote bozo. I'll make my case when I'm back from work. It's not gonna be a good one.
If so lvr excited for today to be me vs balki, or bozo vs balki.
Wait...what? What do you mean I can assume you are?

Ezio, if you die, and flip town, I need to know whether your reads were just your reads, or if some of them were the result of some power. You don't need to make that clear right now, but you do need to make it clear before EOD.

Also, what do you mean "me vs balki, or bozo vs balki"? You think that you and I disagree about stuff, or you think that you and I will be leading wagons? Can you spell this out?

Right now I feel like you're putting on a bit of a show, but I'm basically deferring to ghug's town read of you until I know more.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#948 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:32 pm

damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pm
Reading Balki's reactions going through his re-read it feels like he's trying to hunt for townreads. Rather than scum hunting. Seems scummy to me.

Also I don't love the way he's buddying me, complimenting my colour question, reassuring me he isn't reading me as scum before asking a question. I feel like he's trying to woo me. And I'm hella skeptical.
Fine for you to be "hella skeptical," but also know that trying to work with your town reads and engage with them is just smart play and makes the town work. So, obviously weigh that with the possibility that I am scum doing something nefarious, but the truth is I am trying to put a coalition of crime-fighting do gooders together.

Look carefully at the reasons I am town-reading you and see if they appear sincere.

worcej
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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#949 Post by worcej » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:33 pm

Vote Count:
Balki Bartokomous (2) xorxes, bozotheclown
Foxcastle(1) Balki Bartokomous
xorxes (1) Vecna
bozotheclown (1) Ezio

Currently Balki is set to be 'interrogated' at EOD.

There is ~28.5 hours until EOD.

Balki Bartokomous
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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#950 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 pm

damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pm
Reading Balki's reactions going through his re-read it feels like he's trying to hunt for townreads. Rather than scum hunting. Seems scummy to me.
Wait...why does this seem scummy? Did you mean to say: "seems really smart to me"?

I know that 3/7 of the following are scum:

bozotheclown
Damian
Ezio
FoxCastle
rdrivera2005
Vecna
xorxes

Every time I can correctly townread someone in that group, the odds of the others being scum goes up a ton. If I can correctly pick out four townies in that group, I've solved the game.

Why on Earth wouldn't I be looking carefully for town reads and using process of elimination? I think that is a lot more effective than trying to accurately catch someone being "scummy."

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#951 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:36 pm

I am getting a little bit worried that I'm playing with idiots again. No offense.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#952 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:43 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 pm
damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pm
Reading Balki's reactions going through his re-read it feels like he's trying to hunt for townreads. Rather than scum hunting. Seems scummy to me.
Wait...why does this seem scummy? Did you mean to say: "seems really smart to me"?

I know that 3/7 of the following are scum:

bozotheclown
Damian
Ezio
FoxCastle
rdrivera2005
Vecna
xorxes

Every time I can correctly townread someone in that group, the odds of the others being scum goes up a ton. If I can correctly pick out four townies in that group, I've solved the game.

Why on Earth wouldn't I be looking carefully for town reads and using process of elimination? I think that is a lot more effective than trying to accurately catch someone being "scummy."
This is why a mass reveal makes a lot of sense. We are really close. If we have info roles that have uncovered any info, whether it's a town scan, or a guilty scan, or somebody visited someone else; or if we have someone who can basically clear himself, or has the ability to clear someone else; we can get very close to solving the game right now.

I am in favor of a mass claim right now. And I'm town, and I'm smart. So it can't be a terrible idea.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#953 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:48 pm

Squigs44 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:29 pm
On a reread of Foxcastle, I realized just how much he hedges and backtracks and rambles. It is almost like every post. Here are just a few of the many examples:

Here is a rambling post:
Foxcastle wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:20 pm
Generally, I think Ezio is more prone to sitting back and not trying to lead town or come up with weird plans. (His predisposition to no-lynch aside...) So that he put a kinda wacky plan out there there seems out of character, and he even noted that it might have been one of his biggest posts ever. So either he's scum and trying to do something unexpected to make us think that he's town because scum wouldn't draw attention to themselves like that and townies are known to want to try new plans; or he's town and genuinely thinks we have a better shot if we eliminate the best/worst scum/town players. And when you put it like that, it kinda points to scum, but see also the point where I think Ezio is smarter than that... But then, that's exactly the trap I warned about falling into...
Here is a post where he uses all sorts of hedgy language (bolded for your convenience:
Foxcastle wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:05 pm
I am leaning scum Ezio because I think his plan for lynching people based on who's good/bad scum/town was off. I mean, the plan was flawed, but also it was off that he proposed it. But it's not a strong read. Also, he has posted more and been more engaged than in previous games, which is different, but then this is a different game, and besides, he's been silent for something like 15 hours now, so who knows if that means/meant anything.

I think Ezio is the more interesting flip, so that's where my vote is now, and also to prompt him to participate if he shows back up before EOD. But given that he hasn't been around to make it more or less interesting, I suspect that he will actually not get a wagon today. (I try not to read too much into when people are around, but I also think it's true that we tend to lynch active players over less active players, so lurking is in fact a good scum strategy early on...)

I'm having a little trouble on Damian, but am leaning scum on. He was super awkward, and that's not scummy in and of itself, but there's something off there. Also, his style and tone is different from what I can tell by a brief comparison to his last town game (M33). After the whole color test, I'm not sure what to think—that was silly (not scummy), and some of his questioning after that has gotten better, and I don't have a real baseline for him.

Balki, Xorxes, and Vecna seem pretty townie. But they are often hard for me to read. Ghug and Flum, too.

Bozo seems like town. Or at least seems like he's not scum. I would not vote for Bozo at this point, but I do want to see how that progresses.

I don't scumread ND and rdrivera, and rdrivera is another player that's hard for me to read, but I usually have a better sense of them as time goes by. (And then there's my old theory that when rdrivera is being scumread by a significant portion of game, he's actually town, and when he's mostly townread is when he's scum... We'll see.)
Especially interesting is his part about not expecting Ezio to be a wagon, but still voting him.

Okay, so those posts were pretty early in the game, and it is okay to hedge, since you know next to nothing, right? Well, let's look at a more recent post, where he makes an argument, and then undermines the whole thing with a paragraph at the end with some left-field speculation:
Foxcastle wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:10 pm
From what I have seen, scum tend to avoid clumping together, so I really doubt all three of them are on ND. That's not perfect in this case, because if Squigs was saved, then the scum had to support the ND wagon to do it. But even in that case, I think at least one scum would go somewhere else, and where better than to bus their scummate who they know is likely to remain on the chopping block in coming days?

If it was town-v-town, then scum didn't need to help the ND wagon at all. My general thought on scum is that they don't want to clump up and they want to blend in, they don't want to be implicated in a mislynch but also don't want to be seen totally avoiding the action, and so the second place wagon is a good place for one of them to land.

But I think this is the smallest game I've played, and that could make a difference (I don't see how, but maybe), and also they have a day chat, which means they can coordinate themselves much better if they do decide to bus/clump/whatever.
Usually, hedging and setting yourself up for an easy backtrack is pretty scummy, because it allows you to switch to whatever is most convenient for you. However, with Foxcastle, it seems more like he is legitimately just thinking out loud, and coming up with new thoughts as he types. This stream-of-thought approach actually has me thinking Fox.

For those that say Foxy is one of the town-locks, what is it about Fox that makes you so sure?
+1

Squigs was a rockstar in life, and should be celebrated, even if only posthumously.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#954 Post by damian » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:52 pm

Maybe I'm reading into how enthusiastic you were about the colour test. It just feels so faked, compared to the rest of your reactions.

Using town reads to narrow things down isn't foolish. But its a lot easier for scum to fake townreads than fake scum reads. Which is why its suspicious.

You've done a bunch of PR fishing as well. Like with the "anyone got a gun question". IDK.

I'm going to follow ghug on the mass reveal idea. It could be helpful now, but I trust that if any of our PR players had game changing information they'd come forward and share it without a mass reveal. So I'm not sure the risks outweigh the chance for our PRs to get another action off unmurdered.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#955 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:54 pm

Ezio wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:14 pm
Uh this was vecnas good post about balki.
"Balki is just in full on scummode. Trying to ask for a mass-claim. Poking at Ezio's words to try and frame it in a pro-scum way. He came on before EOD, asked for people about a potential vote, probably saw that Squigs was gonna be alright, so he just vanished.'
Ezio also apparently liked Vecna's Balki/Squigs scumteam post. Did the Squigs flip impact your Balki read at all? If not, why not?

We need a come to Jesus meeting about all these Balki reads. Balki is town, and town needs to know that. It'll help.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#956 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:00 pm

damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:52 pm
Maybe I'm reading into how enthusiastic you were about the colour test. It just feels so faked, compared to the rest of your reactions.
Well, sometimes I talk that way, especially when evaluating an idea that looked so ridiculous, but turned out to have correct results. I thought that was pretty funny, and so I sort of highlighted it in an amused kind of way.

Also, I'm the only town player who knows that everyone who answered your color question is indeed town.
damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:52 pm
Using town reads to narrow things down isn't foolish. But its a lot easier for scum to fake townreads than fake scum reads. Which is why its suspicious.
Is this true? I tend to think the opposite -- that scum have an easier time throwing around shade, but are reluctant to douse flames of other people's scum reads because giving town reads cuts off options. There is probably no hard and fast rule here.
damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:52 pm
You've done a bunch of PR fishing as well. Like with the "anyone got a gun question". IDK.
Really? Asking if anyone has a gun is PR fishing? Give me a break.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#957 Post by ghug » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:12 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:57 pm
damian wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:37 am
@Rdr You could have moved your vote to Squig before you left to help prevent your near lynch. Why didn't you.
Why should I do that? Lock my vote in someone that I townread? I still have hope that people could see you are a better option. And also, I don´t think I am a so valuable asset to town to cast a defensive vote with one hour to go. I considered it when I look the tie, but thought it would be pointless.
This strikes me as very town.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#958 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:16 pm

ghug wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:12 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:57 pm
Why should I do that? Lock my vote in someone that I townread? I still have hope that people could see you are a better option. And also, I don´t think I am a so valuable asset to town to cast a defensive vote with one hour to go. I considered it when I look the tie, but thought it would be pointless.
This strikes me as very town.
Can someone tell me what the vote count was when rdrivera left? I did not think he had many votes on him at all, so this "rdrivera would have been more survivalist" strain of thought seems wrong. I know I had placed a vote on him. Did anyone else? Maybe Squigs?

Somebody please go do this research.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#959 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:17 pm

@ghug, what's your read on Foxcastle? Can we please lynch him today?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#960 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:25 pm

Squigs near EOD2.
Squigs44 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:56 pm
With how the votes are right now, Rdrivera is almost guaranteed scum.
Vote count when Squigs said that:
worcej wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:56 pm
Vote Count:
Squigs44 (5) Fluminator bozotheclown Foxcastle Ezio xorxes
rdrivera2005 (4) Balki Bartokomous ghug Squigs44 damian
Balki Bartokomous (1) Vecna
damian (1) rdrivera2005

Currently Squigs44 is set to be lynched.

You have ~3 minutes.
I think there were 4 town votes on rdrivera at EOD2. What does that tell you about the votes on Squigs?

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