Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

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xorxes
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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1001 Post by xorxes » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:27 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:00 pm
xorxes wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:51 pm
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:38 pm

@Xorxes, can you tell us why Foxy is in the useless town category? Isn't Foxy generally a pretty good player?
I don't know his meta, but in this game I don't think I got anything of use from him yet.
Okay, why do you think he is town?
He seems very comfortable not contributing with anything but trivialities. He did warn us he wouldn't be around much today so I'm not making much of his disappearance yet.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1002 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:29 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:19 pm
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:15 pm
@Bozo, can you remind me why you are voting to lynch me?
I think you are the most likely scum of those that did not vote for ND, and I doubt all three scum voted for ND.
Doesn't really answer the question. Also, what? That is crazy bizarre.

So...the ND wagon lynched a townie, right? So, are you saying that people off of that wagon are particularly likely to be scum? Why?

I agree that probably not all scum voted for ND, but that's just based on general math.

Why do you consider me to be scummy other than the fact that I did not vote to lynch Town!ND?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1003 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:32 pm

xorxes wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:27 pm
He seems very comfortable not contributing with anything but trivialities. He did warn us he wouldn't be around much today so I'm not making much of his disappearance yet.
Well, yeah, I agree that he is comfortable not contributing.

But also, he is making a big effort at blending. As a few people have noted, including you, his trivialities have lots of window dressing. Lots of words that look kind of like analysis but that don't actually say anything.

So, I agree that he's not contributing. But he doesn't seem content to look like he's doing nothing. He is trying to look like he is doing something, while actually doing nothing. Seems like that is a pretty solid scum profile.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1004 Post by Foxcastle » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:35 pm

##VOTE BALKI

OMGUS. But in this it's Oh My God Ur Scum.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1005 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:38 pm

@Xorxes, here are some examples of the Foxy window dressing that I have in mind:
Foxcastle wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:20 pm
Running through EOD, from about page 16.

Flum and Vecna start the ND wagon. If one or both of them is scum, why bring up a new wagon when you already have Bozo (2), Ezio (2), and Damian (2) as viable counterwagons to Squigs (4). At that point, the theory that either Flum or Vecna is scum would need to also include that Squigs is scum, with one of Bozo, Ezio, or Damian also scum, and so Flum or Vecna pushed a new wagon to try to make sure there were as many alternates as possible to save both Squigs and whichever of Bozo, Ezio, and Damian was scum. That seems overly complicated.

Only Squigs and Damian ended up voting ND from that scenario. Bozo was on Squigs and Ezio was on Damian, and those were static votes (Ezio was not around for EOD). Damian's wagon had evaporated by the time he voted, so it wasn't out of self-preservation. Squigs did need to vote ND out of self-preservation.

Actual question for more experienced players: when scum get a wagon like Squigs, how often do their scummates actually come through with a counterwagon to save them? I feel like that discussion comes up a lot on Day 2, but does it ever actually happen? I don't think I've seen it, but they do have a day chat that would facilitate it...

Ezio and Damian were both viable wagons 15 minutes out. Xorxes was the third vote on ND to kinda push them down. I don't see scum in Flum + Vecna + Xorxes, but I admit that those are three that are hard for me to read.

So Squigs, Damian, and Rdrivera are what I see as scum options on ND. But I doubt it's all three of them. From what I've seen, if they can, scum will try to spread themselves out across wagons. If Squigs is scum, did ghug or Bozo bus him, or was that too risky and either Ezio was lurking on Damian, or Balki or I were camping out on Ezio?
I mean...what did he even just say? Like, nothing. Nothing!

But he wrote a whole bunch of words, and he wrote about people who voted for other people so...so what?

EFFORT TO BLEND!
Foxcastle wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:10 pm
From what I have seen, scum tend to avoid clumping together, so I really doubt all three of them are on ND. That's not perfect in this case, because if Squigs was saved, then the scum had to support the ND wagon to do it. But even in that case, I think at least one scum would go somewhere else, and where better than to bus their scummate who they know is likely to remain on the chopping block in coming days?

If it was town-v-town, then scum didn't need to help the ND wagon at all. My general thought on scum is that they don't want to clump up and they want to blend in, they don't want to be implicated in a mislynch but also don't want to be seen totally avoiding the action, and so the second place wagon is a good place for one of them to land.

But I think this is the smallest game I've played, and that could make a difference (I don't see how, but maybe), and also they have a day chat, which means they can coordinate themselves much better if they do decide to bus/clump/whatever.
More Nothingness! Empty Void!

Kind of like a big, long, empty FOXHOLE!

Foxcastle is not content to be seen as doing nothing. He is putting in effort to be seen as doing something that looks vaguely like scum hunting. He's just not doing a great job at manufacturing a real process.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1006 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:39 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:35 pm
##VOTE BALKI

OMGUS. But in this it's Oh My God Ur Scum.
Okay, great.

You've had me as Null until today. What are the reasons that have changed your view?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1007 Post by xorxes » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:41 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:57 pm
My scum list is : Squigs, one of ghug or Bozo, and someone I'm not sure about on the ND wagon.

I'm leaning town on Ezio, and to a weaker degree on Rdrivera, Damian, and Flum. Xorxes could be, and Vecna probably is. Balki is null.
OK, I misread this as "probably is {scum]", but obviously you meant town.

So, is bozo your top scumread now? Who are the other two?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1008 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:54 pm

Also, I refuse to be lynched today. I'm obviously town.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1009 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:12 am

I mean, can Bozo and Foxy really be this dense as Town?

Yesterday they mislynched Squigs:
worcej wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:56 pm
Vote Count:
Squigs44 (5) Fluminator bozotheclown Foxcastle Ezio xorxes
rdrivera2005 (4) Balki Bartokomous ghug Squigs44 damian
Balki Bartokomous (1) Vecna
damian (1) rdrivera2005

Currently Squigs44 is set to be lynched.

You have ~3 minutes.
So today they are both voting to lynch Balki, who was not on that wagon, and who was actively defending Squigs?

Why in the Hell are they trying to lynch me right now if they are town? Why aren't they recalibrating after lynching a smart, productive townie yesterday?

Are there townies out there who see what is going on?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1010 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:16 am

If y'all are going to try to build a wagon on me, state your case.

Yesterday there was a smattering of "well, Balki and Squigs may be scum together." After the Squigs town flip, I don't see anyone taking a moment to rethink their assumptions. Why are we lynching Balki right now?

We had 3 flips at EOD2! That was a ton of information. All townies other than ghug have a small pool of 7 from which to find 3 scum. This game is getting easier. People need to use all of the information they just got.

Go go go...

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1011 Post by xorxes » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:16 am

I finally figured out how to do colors:

Day1:

ND (6) Flum Vecna xorxes Squigs damian rd
Squigs (4) ghug Tom bozo ND
Ezio (2) Fox Balki
damian (1) Ezio

Assuming scum maximally spread themselves out, and assuming town!Ezio for now, scum team here is: {Vecna|damian|rd}+bozo+{Fox|Balki}

Day2:

Squigs (5) Flum bozo Fox Ezio xorxes
rd (4) Balki ghug Squigs damian
Balki (1) Vecna
damian (1) rd

And from here with the same assumptions: {bozo|Fox}+{Balki|damian}+{Vecna|rd}

Combining both I get: bozo+Balki+{Vecna|rd]

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1012 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:29 am

Foxcastle wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:27 pm
This is trickery and bullshit. Balki scumreads me from Day 1, doesn't even bother to come up with a case on me, votes me, hides behind others' scumreads of me, and then when I don't bother to respond to his lack of a case, claims that it's scum indicative. At best it's a reaction test.
Well, I admit that I voted you on Day 1 without really making a case. That was extremely early, and I didn't really have a case. Just a sense based on tone. Though, it's not like I pushed hard for your lynch on Day 1.

Where did I scumread you for not responding to my lack of a case? I've scumread you for several reasons, presented here in the thread -- none of them are for you not responding to me. One of them is that your "Null" read on me strikes me as you trying to avoid a collision with me. I don't think you wanted a collision with me.

Foxcastle wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:03 pm
I do not want you to be scum, because you're very good as scum and I recall how hard it was to catch you.

What I meant with that statement was "I am glad that Balki is here and participating because [his increased posting now compared to his lower participation earlier in the game has produced enough content to convince me that] this is his scum meta."

As to 2, these are not serious questions. I'm sorry that I don't seem to get basic respect from you, even, but you know what I meant.

Your scum meta is to make a lot of noise without doing much solving. Like a sane Brainbomb that never manages to produce a case that you could actually be judged on. Lots of demands for participation, creating lots of leads to follow. And the thing that makes you scary is that in the hands of town, those can be good things that catch scum. But you're not town here, because you're not trying to use them to actually catch scum.
I don't think this is right, but I want to try to follow your logic.

So, you're saying that, as scum, I am very active without "doing much solving." What is the difference between activity and solving?

And you are saying I don't make many cases as scum? I'm almost 100% certain that is not true. I think I make cases and drive lynches as scum. I think I play out front. It's actually been quite a while since I've played as scum on any site, but I do believe I make cases, and I am very "solvey."

From where are you pulling this meta?

And how am I not solvey in this game? I am being pretty clear about my conclusions. Do you just disagree with all of my conclusions? Is that why you don't find me "solvey"? I believe I have the 3-member scum team pegged to within 4 people. So how can you say "you're not trying to use them to actually catch scum."

Your accusation does not fit.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1013 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:31 am

xorxes wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:16 am
Assuming scum maximally spread themselves out, and assuming town!Ezio for now, scum team here is: {Vecna|damian|rd}+bozo+{Fox|Balki}
What does it mean to "assume scum maximally spread themselves out"?

Why should we make such an assumption?

You sound dumb. Are you dumb?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1014 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:32 am

I would like to relax my "Xorxes is town" assumption.

I still kind of think he is town...but like...what the Hell?

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1015 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:47 am

Foxcastle wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:27 pm
Your scum meta is to make a lot of noise without doing much solving. Like a sane Brainbomb that never manages to produce a case that you could actually be judged on. Lots of demands for participation, creating lots of leads to follow. And the thing that makes you scary is that in the hands of town, those can be good things that catch scum. But you're not town here, because you're not trying to use them to actually catch scum.
Like...what does this mean? Why do you think I'm not trying to use "a lot of noise/demands/leads to follow" to catch scum?

How can you say I am not trying to catch scum?

You seem to think you've put your finger on a meta-balki read. In your eyes, Town!Balki does a bunch of stuff and is trying to catch scum. Scum!Balki does a lot of stuff and is not trying to catch scum.

What about my actions can you point to in order to suggest that you are observing the latter?

If you think I'm scum, and you've got a great meta-read -- explain yourself clearly so that people can understand and be swayed.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1016 Post by xorxes » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:51 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:31 am
xorxes wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:16 am
Assuming scum maximally spread themselves out, and assuming town!Ezio for now, scum team here is: {Vecna|damian|rd}+bozo+{Fox|Balki}
What does it mean to "assume scum maximally spread themselves out"?

Why should we make such an assumption?

You sound dumb. Are you dumb?
Occasionally, yes, but I don't think I'm being dumb here. I'm simply saying what would follow from that assumption, nothing else.

In any case, what you should point out is that the analysis works from my point of view. I didn't work out what would be the conclusion from a neutral point of view.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1017 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:51 am

I am not impressed with my teammates right now.

#notimpressedwithmyteammates

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1018 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:54 am

xorxes wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:51 am
Occasionally, yes, but I don't think I'm being dumb here. I'm simply saying what would follow from that assumption, nothing else.

In any case, what you should point out is that the analysis works from my point of view. I didn't work out what would be the conclusion from a neutral point of view.
Well, I just reject the notion that scum are likely to be "maximally spread out."

Especially considering we don't know rdrivera's alignment, so we don't know if scum had a clear incentive to be on the Squigs wagon, I don't think there is any reason for us to assume that scum were spread out in any particular way. There are lots of reasons for scum to choose who to vote for that have nothing to do with, "Um, I have one teammate over there, and one teammate over there, so I've got to be here."

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1019 Post by Ezio » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:58 am

ghug wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm
Ezio wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:13 pm
ghug wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:01 pm
Ezio, you still haven't answered me about your final post from yesterday.

I'll be a little more straightforward because you're being dense:

You said I'd look bad regardless of Squigs's flip. What was bad?
I'd choose bozo.

Right now I'm thinking scumteam contains Damian and bozo. Why? I think all of the prolific posters in this game are town.

Vecna, balki, me, you, xorxes all seem super Towny.

This leaves damian, Rd, bozo, fox, and rd. Before EoD yesterday I would have said Rd is super more scummy, but I townread Rd for his play today.

I like the vote analysis of the three of them as scum together (all on separate wagons on a town v town day, and on both wagons for the next, far more concentrated day). I need to look at the analysis of the other permutations, and I'll start working through then when I get home.

You asked me why I said you looked bad regardless of how yesterday's EoD flipped. It was because I was scimreading you pretty hard at that point with your defense of RD and I didn't actually do good analysis if squigs flipped town, as evidenced by me needing to do so Mich work today.
My defense of Rd?
Your defense of squiggs/your push of RD. Whoops.

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Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

#1020 Post by Ezio » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:00 am

Who in this game doesn't scumread
Bozo

At the moment?

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