Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

[Balki Bartokomous]

General thoughts on how to judge the alignment of “Balki is Scum” pushes:

1. Generally, the people who try to lynch me are town. I’ve played a couple dozen mafia games, and that has almost always been true. I think this makes some sense because I am rarely low-hanging fruit, and I always put up a pretty impassioned fight. And so pushing a scum case on me is conspicuous. This is slightly less determinative now because I have actually stated this observation in-thread here and in the most recent Webdip game. So, it is possible someone has considered that, and pushed a case on me because of it. Still, I think that pushing me earliest and hardest is fairly town-indicative.

2. Generally, I expect scum to use arguments that can lead them to their next mislynch after my flip. That makes me pretty skeptical of some of the “Scum are likely spread out,” or “let’s focus on the non-ND wagon” type arguments. They generally have a built in next mislynch target.

3. People who only began to read me as scum on Day 3 are suspect. I think, objectively, I was fairly scummy on Day 1 and 2. I really did not provide much analysis, and I was rarely caught up with the thread. I personally feel like I have been very towny on Day 3, as I have caught up with the game and tried to analyze and solve. So it is suspicious to me to see people who did not scum-read me early, develop a scum read on me on Day 3, after my lynch has suddenly become more viable.

4. People who start pushing the wagon after my flip appears viable are suspect. While I don’t think scum naturally want to pick a fight with me, I think they would be delighted to see me lynched. Obviously any mislynch is good, but I would expect that they consider me a threat to catch them, and so I would expect they would be overjoyed at the prospect of having town kill me so that they don’t have to. So anyone jumping on after my lynch looks viable, especially if they have not picked a fight with me earlier, is suspect to me.

Next I’ll analyze the various arguments put forward so far, using these factors.

[Vecna]

Hmmm

[Foxcastle]

Xorxes already looked at this, but I wanted to do some more EOD analysis, since my reread of Ezio/Xorxes in duo was not really revealing much else to me.

Day 1

ND (6) — Flum , Vecna,​ xorxes, ​Squigs, damian, rdrivera
Squ​igs(4) — ghug , ​Tom , bozo , ND
E​zio (2) — Foxcastle, Balki
damian (1) — Ezio

I'm still inclined to think Bozo is scum. I think scum tend to spread themselves out when it's a town-v-town lynch. I don't think his initial no-lynch plan is scummy. I'm going to reread him next.

Damian is the lead wagon the first half of Day 1, at which point Balki jumps from me to Damian to tie it 3-3 with Squigs at 16:58 to go. Too far out for that to really be anything useful to analyze without knowing more about Bozo.

Vecna moves off of Damian to Rdr at 13:49, putting squigs (3) up by 1 over Damian. ND puts Squigs (4) up by 2 over Damian at 8:45. Damian moves from unvote to squigs (5) at 7:12 out, but then is also the next vote at 3:30 to go to bozo. I don't think I see anything clearly scummy here. Damian's move seems to be self preservation; putting the Squigs wagon ahead, but then moving to create more options by tying Bozo and Ezio with him at 2 votes all.

Flum and Vecna get the ND wagon started at about 1:30 out. Scum could do that if they felt the need to protect one of the second place wagons tied at 2 (Bozo, Ezio, Damian), but I think it's more likely that scum would wait and see at the point, since squigs is so far ahead and there's just a lot that could happen.

Nothing happens for a while, then Balki pushes Ezio (3) up to second wagon, at which point Xorxes votes for ND to tie with Ezio at 3. Squigs votes ND, presumably out of self-preservation. Damian and rdrivera vote ND last.

Xorxes kinda saves Ezio here by bringing up ND. Ezio's had a weird thing over Xorxes that he won't explain. Is it crazy to think they're scum together? If so, that would mean Balki is probably town, since I really doubt that scum-Balki would bus scum-Ezio and then scum-Xorxes would come along to save scum-Ezio...

Day 2

​Squigs (5) — Flum ,b​ozo, Foxcastle, Ezio, xorxes
​rdrivera (4) — Balki, ghug , ​Squigs , damian
Balki (1) — Vecna
damian (1) — rdrivera

Squigs wasn't really a wagon early on Day 2, which Flum pointed out, and I also think is interesting. If you're scum, and you know squigs is town, and think that there's a good chance he'll get lynched Day 2, you let townies do the work and focus on building up the next town wagon. Everyone who voted squigs on Day is: ghug, Tom, Bozo, ND, and Damian. On Day 2, Bozo got back around to Squigs early (second vote), but Damian never did. Damian could be scum.

Ghug was an early wagon, that included me, Flum, and Xorxes. After that, Flum started the Squigs wagon and Bozo added to it shortly thereafter. Wagons were kinda a mess 2 hours out. At 1:40, it's a 4-way split with 2 votes on squigs, ghug, damian, and rdr. It's then something of a horserace between Squigs and rdrivera, with me jumping on Squigs to put him in the lead and rdrivera never catching up.

If rdrivera is scum, that means me, Ezio, and Xorxes possibly tried to save him by pushing the Squigs wagon, while Damian looks pretty good.

I was going to point to Ezio and Xorxes popping up again, but given Ezio's pretty clear view on Xorxes, I don't think it's particularly scummy that they're voting together. If they hadn't had that Day 2 interaction, there'd be much stronger case that they're scum together. But maybe Ezio should help the rest of us understand how Xorxes cleared himself, just to be sure.

If rdrivera is town (which is my read of him), I'm less sure what to think. In that case, probably Balki, Bozo, myself, and Vecna look worse for being early votes on town wagons or (in Vecna's case) hiding off-wagon.

SUMMARY VERSION: I still think Bozo is likely scum, and maybe there's a theory that Xorxes and Ezio are scum based on Day 1 and Day 2, but that's a stretch and is mitigated by their posts and how much Ezio is shouting about townclearing Xorxes. Based on Day 2, Damian could be scum, but more than that depends on knowing Rdrivera.

None of this is strong enough for me to give up on Balki, though, and Bozo is still a good second choice.

[Vecna]

I dont have a lot of time for this tonight. Im feeling bad about this Balki thing. On the one hand, he's putting in a lot of effort, and if im wrong here it feels terrible to not listen. And he's probably also right I probably did just look mainly for stuff to fit the scum-balki story. On the other hand, gut feelings, instinct....hmm

Choices choices.

[Vecna]

##vote BozoTheClown

[Vecna]

Ill try to be here for EoD. But its also PoE time tonight, so I might be completely hooked n stuff

[Balki Bartokomous]

I am grouping the “Balki is Scum” arguments from most scum-indicative to most town-indicative based on the factors that I mentioned.

Scummy

Argument 1 (Bozo): I think it is likely that not all scum voted for ND. Balki is the most likely to be scum out of that group.

I find this argument to be the most scum-indicative. First, it sets up a natural progression that can lead the person pushing it to future mislynches. It also provides an excuse for the person pushing it to ignore a bunch of people in the game. Second, there isn't any real logic behind looking only at the non-ND wagon people. ND was town, and it doesn't look like there was any scum player in much jeopardy on Day 1, so all scum had to do that day was try to look towny. That makes analyzing vote wagons non-predictive. Third, I don't believe Bozo put anything about a Balki scumread in the thread until Day 3 (after I became much more engaged) and after Vecna and Damian kind of planted the seeds to suggest that a Balki lynch was viable. Fourth, Bozo has been very passive with this read. He has put his "rationale" down, but he has not tried to engage me in any way, and he is not trying to whip votes. He is parking his vote in a place he wants it, and then sitting in the shadows.

Argument 2 (Xorxes):
Scum is likely spread out. So, because Balki voted for Ezio Day 1 and then rdrivera on Day 2, and nobody else fits that profile, then Balki could be scum.

This has a lot of the characteristics of the argument above, in that it has a progression that leads to more mislynches and it gives the author an excuse to narrow their focus. It also lacks logic, as there is no reason to think that scum are "maximally spread."

I find this to be a bit less scum indicative because Xorxes has not pushed it a ton as his main reasoning. He just posted it as more of a general consideration, and it doesn't seem to be the thing driving Xorxes's read. Xorxes's reaction to my Damian town read looks more genuine.

....to be continued

Okay, I have to go do some other stuff. I'll post analysis about the other four Balki is scum arguments when I return.

[Ezio]

K ive got about 10 mins now and gonna have 10 mins in a few hours.

Balki deserves an extra day just because of his effort today. It's all looked good from my cursory look through.

I feel bad for ghug because he usually relies on how people read him to formulate his own reads, but he can't do any of that now, and his reads are probably going to suffer as a result.

Xorxes needs to do more, and right now. I don't agree with his assment of balki and that scares me. He was wrong d1 and d2. For him to be wrong day 3 would be unheard of. Maybe I'm just wrong, but I doubt it.

I like Damian's scumread of me. I hste his basic analysis that "he's posting less today" bit.

I loved Rd ls play when he thought he was under the gun and I'm gonna stick to that feeling. It's a little concerning that flum started d2 pushing him, and if my reads are correct, it means a lot of townies pushed him yesterday.

Foxcastle is scum right now, and I'm not sure how to rucking change that. He's done these wall posts but I can't remember anything he's actually fucking said. It's a pretty normal style, and I think it's even in meta for him, but holy crap I can't do anything about it.

[damian]

I’m confused. When you say you can doing nothing about that You could vote Fox could you not?

Are you referring to just the lack of time to make a case on him?

[Ezio]

Shit you know what it is? I don't think bozo or fox talked to me at all yesterday. I think that's what feels weird about them.
I was around so much, spewing so much bullshit,ni was expecting some sort of reaction or response. Something from them to me, or at least talking to people about me, or at least concrete reads of what I was doing and what th y thought about it.
I'm not sure I got any nod that from fox or bozo, or RD, or frankly xorxes. I understand why xorxes would have a hard time with it, given that I was doing it about him.

I don't think I'm crazy, but I think balki, vecns, ghug, Damian, and flum all were interacting with me yesterday. I don't have time to check this shit, but that's what I think is causing me to feel this way.

[Ezio]

I’m confused. When you say you can doing nothing about that You could vote Fox could you not?

Are you referring to just the lack of time to make a case on him?

My point is I don't have q case on fox, so I shouldn't think he's scum. I think this is super normal and not scum indicative, but makes me feel bad.

[Ezio]

And that's it for now. I'm sorry town I fucked today up badly.

[damian]

I’ll check to see who interacted with you yesterday. And write a brief summary so you’ve got that information when you make you decision on your next break.

[ghug]

##VOTE Foxcastle

[ghug]

Ezio I'm getting the sense that you stripped back because you went ham yesterday and you were wrong. Don't do that please.

[damian]

Foxcastle-spends most of the early D2 talking about Ezio, and his vote for him D1. Reacts to Ezio’s D2 play by saying “Ezio’s looking pretty townie at this point (7 hours from EOD), a lot of his recent stuff outweighs my earlier reactions”

Bozo—Only comment from D2 about Ezio is asking Flum why he would start the ND wagon if he was willing to switch to Ezio.

RD-Start is the day talks about thinking either myself or Ezio was scum saved. 11 hours from deadline says “Ezio improves today, started to give some content but is still doing some scummy things. Why buddy Ghug this way? Also the push on Xorxes feels like trying to change his meta than a real push” he also 5 hours to deadline asks you which Flum points were good and why sleeping is a good play.

Xorxes-Responds to your case on him on page 29. Says he was about to start scumreadibf you before you made one post. Then corrects himself after he read a later post from you. No other interactions.

So you were half right in your remembering of those 4

[ghug]

Foxcastle-spends most of the early D2 talking about Ezio, and his vote for him D1. Reacts to Ezio’s D2 play by saying “Ezio’s looking pretty townie at this point (7 hours from EOD), a lot of his recent stuff outweighs my earlier reactions”

Bozo—Only comment from D2 about Ezio is asking Flum why he would start the ND wagon if he was willing to switch to Ezio.

RD-Start is the day talks about thinking either myself or Ezio was scum saved. 11 hours from deadline says “Ezio improves today, started to give some content but is still doing some scummy things. Why buddy Ghug this way? Also the push on Xorxes feels like trying to change his meta than a real push” he also 5 hours to deadline asks you which Flum points were good and why sleeping is a good play.

Xorxes-Responds to your case on him on page 29. Says he was about to start scumreadibf you before you made one post. Then corrects himself after he read a later post from you. No other interactions.

So you were half right in your remembering of those 4

Town points for Ezio.

[damian]

I was really hoping someone would join me on Ezio. I feel like you’re leaning on your early town read of him too much Ghug.
##Vote Foxcastle.

[ghug]

I was really hoping someone would join me on Ezio. I feel like you’re leaning on your early town read of him too much Ghug.
##Vote Foxcastle.

I was doubting him all day, but he's been good in the last page or so.

[damian]

His play this page has been a lot better. But I’m not sure where you’re getting town points for essentially throwing shade at 4 people and being only 50% accurate in terms of what he remembered.

I felt like it was throwing up vague accusations with no expectation of being called on them. So I figured I’d play fact checker. I especially didn’t like that given his short time frame, and feeling that we shouldn’t lynch Balki he didn’t either. A) Move to Foxcastle, who he talked about scum reading or B) try and push for Bozo.