MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[Vaporwave]

##VOTE Tom Bombadil

pressure vote for presence

whatever you wanna call it

[thamrick]

##VOTE Tom Bombadil

pressure vote for presence

whatever you wanna call it

I detest votes like this. Why does voting someone while explicitly stating that you don't actually believe the vote make them feel pressure?

[thamrick]

@EMC - what do you think of Neph's reads? Also, what do you think of Ezio's case against Neph? And what do you think of xorxes' case against Attorney?

[thamrick]

@Neph - you seem oddly defensive for being tied 3-ways early into D2. Refresh me on your case for me being scum? Is it still just that first post?

[e.m.c^42]

updated with new info + pr claims; not moving attorney until something makes me believe what he says lol

Tell me if something's wrong, rather tired atm

https://pasteboard.co/I3X0xKK.png

[e.m.c^42]

@EMC - what do you think of Neph's reads? Also, what do you think of Ezio's case against Neph? And what do you think of xorxes' case against Attorney?

Let me get back to you on this: just wasted 30 mins drawing with a mouse, and I have something I need to submit in 2 hours XD

I'll reread and write up once I finish, or in about 7 hours tomorrow---since it'll take quite long to reread all the posts from them.

[Nephthys]

@Neph - you seem oddly defensive for being tied 3-ways early into D2. Refresh me on your case for me being scum? Is it still just that first post?

Honestly I'm more triggered that people still aren't reading my posts. It doesn't help that Ezio's case is lowkey rubbish and he followed it up with a bunch of questions that I couldn't understand

Pretty much, I haven't had chance to reread much cause I needed to spend all my time answering people's cases

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.3

Nephthys (2) - Ezio, Xorxes
Foxcastle (2) - Worcej, Attorney
Attorney (2) - Foxcastle, Nephthys
RagingIke (1) - Flash
Flash (1) - Squigs
Tom Bombadil (1) - Vaporwave

Currently NODOBY is scheduled to have anything done to them.

43 hours and 27 minutes remain in D2.

[Squigs44]

Minor point. I did give reasons in response to Vapour. Did you miss it?

I just isod 18 players. It's very likely I missed something. The reasons you are talking about are for what? Your vote on attorney?

yes

Okay, found it now.
So you give three reasons:

1 - He's pushing hard for a mislynch.
First, your language is strongly assumptive in that Vapor is town. At page 15, where do you get the idea that his vote on Vapor is driving a mislynch? Also, his vote was piggybacking off of Foxcastle's case, so why are you going after Attorney for "pushing hard"? He did post other reasons for voting Vapor, but none of them came across as pushing hard for me.

2 - You think his "if you ask for a explanation you are scum" is BS. Okay, valid observation here that you copied off of vapor from 2 pages ago. Using bad logic isn't scummy though unless it is agenda driven. Looking at Attorney's game as a whole, I don't see that.

3 - Attorney's logic that there are guaranteed 2 scum in the 6 conservatives. This was obviously Attorney being dense and not understanding the set up. He probably just didn't realize that there were non-backbencher town conservatives at the time. Not alignment indicative.

[Squigs44]

i really don't know how people can so solidly scum read rdr after the last day and his posts since then.

like. rdr's night posts are sooooo his town meta

what is his town meta, then? :D

all I know is beaches, more beaches, ahaha

getting angry is his town meta

He has a single post during the night at this point, and it didn't seem angry to me.

[Squigs44]

The things I found oddest about day 1 was that the votes stayed constant for about 2 hours starting 2.5 hours before EOD, then brainbomb self voted and stated he was scum, and the result was 4 players changing their vote from Attorney to rdrivera. For whatever reason, these players were dedicated to not lynching brainbomb.

The way this is stated makes it sound like you think brainbomb's self vote was the cause for people to switch their votes. Was this just worded weird or do you think that his self vote actually caused people to switch, and if so, why?

[RagingIke297]

*Pokes* hey there Squigs, hows it going?

[Squigs44]

ok i honest to god lied about being conservative
i hard retract my conservative claim
i did it to add noise to the pool and so mafia wouldn't get correct info

Thinking this through more, if scum had all claimed conservative, they would need someone to move over to the non-con group or else they would auto-lose in a mass claim. In moving over though, they would know that they would draw attention to themselves, so they would only do it if they absolutely had to. For now though, we wait for the party cop to scan him. No use in lynching him today when a scan can clear him.

[Squigs44]

*Pokes* hey there Squigs, hows it going?

*Pokes back* Pretty good, I won my raquetball game today. You?

[RagingIke297]

*Pokes* hey there Squigs, hows it going?

*Pokes back* Pretty good, I won my raquetball game today. You?

I'm pretty great, watched the first two Indiana Jones movies. I was just thinking about something Worcej said earlier and wanted your opinion, let me go find it real quick

[ND]

who pressure votes D2?

[RagingIke297]

I don't really think all scum were voting for brainbomb, I made that comment based on what brainbomb said, I had not examined in detail who had voted for him yet. It would be very surprising if none of his teammates bussed him though.

Maybe this will help or not, based on the last game (BB was scum) and observing how he played scum, but he had a tendency to mixed a lot of truth in his lies. I would not be shocked in the slightest if the 3/1 and 2/2 option are the reality.

Even with a mod-kill, which I am guessing he tried to force Jaime to do based on a very very quick scan, I imagine he still wins if scum pull this out.

TL;DR - I think hyper focusing on the blues is what we should avoid doing. There is almost certainly a scum in the reds as well.

The bolded bit, what do you think? Should we be focusing lynches in a certain pool of players?

[Squigs44]

Ok everyone.

I hardclaim Theresa May. Last night I made Rdrivera the EU negotiator. You can confirm that privately in your chat or you can confirm it publicly.

Today we are lynching Neph.


Neph is scum.
Case on Nephys: HIs read on me in his EoN reads makes absolutely no sense and is absolutely indicative of scum trying to fake a reads list.
“Ezio, Puts some defense on brain with an hour to go wanting to lynch a guy "that asked for low posters to come online". Scum “
While technically accurate at the surface level, it is absolutely not looking for meaning/reasoning behind the actions.
The person I was referring to was Attorney, who was high on Neph’s scum list himself. Who was, in fact, the very person Neph ended the day on. Odd to scumread someone for pushing/voting someone you think is scum. It is far more likely Neph simply forgot he was supposed to be scumreading Attorney and looked at the surface of what I said and called it “scummy”.
Furthermore, Nephys himself went from defending BB earlier in the day
“
As for brain, what Tom said last game really stood out to me. There's no point lynching someone who will obv themselves easily. While overnight he went nuts and I'm suspicious, I'm not 100% yet. Based on last game (sorry brain), I really rate his scum game because its easy to pick up. I think he's best left alone for today put scrutinized tomorrow.
-Neph
“
to this beauty of a hedge near EoD:
“
Last game it was painfully clear. Now not so much, usually whenever I scumread [Brainbomb] but doubt he ends up being town. I dunno though, he doesn't seem to be doing much.
-Neph
“
If that doesn’t scream “I don’t know what I’m supposed to say when my scum teammate is the leading lynch candidate” I don’t know what does. Townies, when they have an argument like that, usually act based on their stated opinions. Neph did not. We have to ask ourselves why, and the most likely answer seems to be that he was a scum partner.

Looking more into Neph now, and I think you actually missed a lot. Like, the whole first half of your case comments on his read of you, when in the same reads list he gives far scummier reads. That reads list is bad.

For example:

e.m.c^42,Very different playstyle to last game, a lot more confident which I like, although I'm wondering it comes from being scum and having more information to start with. Depsite that, I've liked the analysis he's put in so far. The one thing that does get me is he said he doesn't really want to jump on the Rd wagon then rides it to the end. I find that a little concerning considering how close Rd got to being lynched. I suppose weak town though.

Emc has been anything BUT confident this game. Also, I can't find where emc said he didn't want to jump on the rdr wagon. Neph's reasoning here is hot garbage.
A lot of his other reads are one liner surface level reads that are easy to put up (I would know after doing so in my first scum game).

After actually taking time to look at his EoN reads:
##Vote Neph

[Squigs44]

I don't really think all scum were voting for brainbomb, I made that comment based on what brainbomb said, I had not examined in detail who had voted for him yet. It would be very surprising if none of his teammates bussed him though.

Maybe this will help or not, based on the last game (BB was scum) and observing how he played scum, but he had a tendency to mixed a lot of truth in his lies. I would not be shocked in the slightest if the 3/1 and 2/2 option are the reality.

Even with a mod-kill, which I am guessing he tried to force Jaime to do based on a very very quick scan, I imagine he still wins if scum pull this out.

TL;DR - I think hyper focusing on the blues is what we should avoid doing. There is almost certainly a scum in the reds as well.

The bolded bit, what do you think? Should we be focusing lynches in a certain pool of players?

Well, lets do some math.

Let us assume for the moment that Attorney is town and is telling the truth that he is non-con. This means that there are 3 scum among the con claimants, and only 1 among the non-cons. Of the conservatives, there are 4 backbenchers, 2 PRs, and three scum. Lets also assume that we will never lynch a PR because they will claim before their death (a lot of assumptions here, but just bear with me). So we have 7 remaining cons who are up for lynch. Let's say we employ the tactic that we only focus on cons. Let's look at worst case scenario:

Day 2: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 2: Conservative PR is killed
Day 3: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 3: Conservative PR is killed
Day 4: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 4: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 5: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 5: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 6: Lynch scum con claimant
Night 6: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 7: Lynch scum con claimant
Night 7: SNP backbencher killed
Day 8: Lynch last scum con claimant
Night 8: Labour backbencher killed

Even at worst case scenario, this leaves us with 4 labour backbenchers, 1 scum.
Now, there are a LOT of variables that go into this that you cannot account for all of them. But, in general, reducing the pool of cons for most of the mafia to hide in will make it very very difficult for scum to hide end game. If the party cop can catch a scum among the non-cons, that will likely be auto-win for town, unless there are two scums who claimed non-con (which with our current claims seems unlikely). The journalist can also expose a scum, or give another clear to town.

TL;DR: Even if we hit 4 town cons in a row with the strategy of only going after cons, that will ensure that we get all of the scum that claimed con after that and put us in a good position for the end game.

[RagingIke297]

Maybe this will help or not, based on the last game (BB was scum) and observing how he played scum, but he had a tendency to mixed a lot of truth in his lies. I would not be shocked in the slightest if the 3/1 and 2/2 option are the reality.

Even with a mod-kill, which I am guessing he tried to force Jaime to do based on a very very quick scan, I imagine he still wins if scum pull this out.

TL;DR - I think hyper focusing on the blues is what we should avoid doing. There is almost certainly a scum in the reds as well.

The bolded bit, what do you think? Should we be focusing lynches in a certain pool of players?

Well, lets do some math.

Let us assume for the moment that Attorney is town and is telling the truth that he is non-con. This means that there are 3 scum among the con claimants, and only 1 among the non-cons. Of the conservatives, there are 4 backbenchers, 2 PRs, and three scum. Lets also assume that we will never lynch a PR because they will claim before their death (a lot of assumptions here, but just bear with me). So we have 7 remaining cons who are up for lynch. Let's say we employ the tactic that we only focus on cons. Let's look at worst case scenario:

Day 2: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 2: Conservative PR is killed
Day 3: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 3: Conservative PR is killed
Day 4: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 4: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 5: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 5: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 6: Lynch scum con claimant
Night 6: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 7: Lynch scum con claimant
Night 7: SNP backbencher killed
Day 8: Lynch last scum con claimant
Night 8: Labour backbencher killed

Even at worst case scenario, this leaves us with 4 labour backbenchers, 1 scum.
Now, there are a LOT of variables that go into this that you cannot account for all of them. But, in general, reducing the pool of cons for most of the mafia to hide in will make it very very difficult for scum to hide end game. If the party cop can catch a scum among the non-cons, that will likely be auto-win for town, unless there are two scums who claimed non-con (which with our current claims seems unlikely). The journalist can also expose a scum, or give another clear to town.

TL;DR: Even if we hit 4 town cons in a row with the strategy of only going after cons, that will ensure that we get all of the scum that claimed con after that and put us in a good position for the end game.

Seems kinda legit, I feel like scum isn't going to kill in the conservative pool though, why would they not try to have town spend some more lynches on town PR and kill some non conservatives?