M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[damo666]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I disagree in that I think ghug, rdr, or yourself would be more than capable of both conditions.

Reflecting on JBH's attempted death earlier in the game, could it be because scum wanted to simply get a kill? With roses in play, you never know who is going to die or not and missing kills like N1 was not something they wanted to repeat?

Jamie was a certainty if they simply wanted a guaranteed kill. Why gamble on JBH when he might have a n2 rose. Scum knew they had shot Jamie and that he had a n1 rose.

I'm a tad surprised at you worcej.

[damo666]

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

Wait, why would ghug not kill someone who is scum reading him?

draws attention

[worcej]

And also, I am really unimpressed by all your analysis, grasping at straws, and still, you have no more clue than I do. That should make you scratch your head and consider that maybe you guys are playing this game wrong.

I know, this will piss you off, and then you will really want to vote me out of town. Go ahead.

But really, you should think it over. Just because everyone thinks a certain way, it does not mean it is right. Usually it means it is insufficient because most people are mediocrities.

You guys are playing this game wrong. But I don't know the right way to play. Maybe there is no better way.

Who is grasping at straws?

Who is stuck thinking in one certain way?

Who is playing wrong?

[worcej]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I disagree in that I think ghug, rdr, or yourself would be more than capable of both conditions.

Reflecting on JBH's attempted death earlier in the game, could it be because scum wanted to simply get a kill? With roses in play, you never know who is going to die or not and missing kills like N1 was not something they wanted to repeat?

Jamie was a certainty if they simply wanted a guaranteed kill. Why gamble on JBH when he might have a n2 rose. Scum knew they had shot Jamie and that he had a n1 rose.

I'm a tad surprised at you worcej.

True, so my theory sucks then.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I disagree in that I think ghug, rdr, or yourself would be more than capable of both conditions.

Reflecting on JBH's attempted death earlier in the game, could it be because scum wanted to simply get a kill? With roses in play, you never know who is going to die or not and missing kills like N1 was not something they wanted to repeat?

Jamie was a certainty if they simply wanted a guaranteed kill. Why gamble on JBH when he might have a n2 rose. Scum knew they had shot Jamie and that he had a n1 rose.

I'm a tad surprised at you worcej.

I agree. Scum should have shot Jaime.

[rdrivera2005]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

So, if you are just a clueless newbie, why the experienced scumteam decided to kill you N2 instead of any of the other experienced players that are alive, including one that didn't have a rose for sure (Jamiet)? You fake claiming a shot is the best way to get pressure off you and give a cover for the scum Chaqa shot.
The fact no other town can see this is just making me crazy. No one was able to give a reason to why scum shoot you but they still think you are town.

I see it rdr, but I struggle with the two possibilities that exist to make it true:

1. A scum player grabbed a rose.
2. A scum team withheld a NK or a gun.

Of the remaining group of players, I don't see anyone who would've been okay with these moves.

Worcej, considering Chaqa claimed a gun and was scum, if scum use a gun N3 it will be obvious that he or JHK (or both) are scum. Also, a N3 kill will only make milo into kilo so not a big disadvantage to scum. So withhold the NK is the right thing to do and if Chaqa and JBH are both scum anyone of the remaining players would push for this move.

[rdrivera2005]

Well if Johnny is scum the only person who would possibly have gone along with that plan is brain so

Celaph is still the best kill tomorrow.

If the n5 and n6 kills are me and worcej then you can seriously look at JBH

JBH scum would explain the celaph kill

Why is there so much focus on JBH with the celaph kill?

I could see ANY combo of players picking celaph to die because of solving skills and ability to communicate effectively.

Agree. Scum are aiming competent players or clear players. The only exception was JBH and that's why he is getting so much attention today.

[rdrivera2005]

Whoa. Mistake in my assumption.

GJ and JW could have killed celaph.

Add those pairings back in the mix.

Anyway JBH is scum in all cases unless ER has me fooled.

To summarise I am left with

EJ
ER
GJ
JW

Can anybody outside a pairing justify eliminating any of these?

I still think JBH is the best vote.

If I add back EG and GW then I get the following frequency count:

E 3
G 3
J 3
R 1
W 1

However E and G are voting each other so if I give this pairing less weight J is still the best vote.

I'm interested in what W has to say.

What do you think I would say? My strongest townread is JBH due to trying to figure the damn game out.

How on Earth he is tryng to figure the game out? He started with a spreadsheet or something he never presented. Then tunnelled Jamiet with a tinfoil theory. When Xorxes replaced Jamiet and flipped town he told he will sheep Xorxes but never did (Xorxes coincidentally was scumreading Chaqa).

And now he is saying he don't have a clue but is voting me because of "reasons". How is this trying to solve anything?

[ghug]

I'm wondering if Johnny's been told to sheep me to create distance with his partner should I die. He's not really giving any explanation for his voting, but it's consistently mirrored mine (or at least my reads) for about a day now.

[e.m.c^42]

Sorry for absence, was going to show up some hours earlier and write up except for forgotten eye examination and subsequent dilated pupils, which makes screens a tad bit difficult at moment.

[e.m.c^42]

and okay, will be re-evaluating you @ghug, but still...

tbh I am sort of sheeping xorxes with his rivera read, so I am not quite around on it

[e.m.c^42]

You had a plausible explanation for scumghug's behavior yesterday with a town Chaqa. What's your explanation for my behavior yesterday with the knowledge Chaqa was scum?

(This question is not for worcej, who has made his opinion on the matter clear.)

Avoiding bus instead, since all it takes is one other off-wagon town and then (assuming other bus on Chaqa) it could've been possible to force a vote and end of game. However that does leave rivera and worcej as said candidates, hmm

[e.m.c^42]

In that scenario it would be cross-bussing today then, which really isn't out of left field for either of you, considering meta.

[e.m.c^42]

Completely unrelated but @JBH why do you keep on spelling it "worcez"?

[Johnny Big Horse]

If I add back EG and GW then I get the following frequency count:

E 3
G 3
J 3
R 1
W 1

However E and G are voting each other so if I give this pairing less weight J is still the best vote.

I'm interested in what W has to say.

What do you think I would say? My strongest townread is JBH due to trying to figure the damn game out.

How on Earth he is tryng to figure the game out? He started with a spreadsheet or something he never presented. Then tunnelled Jamiet with a tinfoil theory. When Xorxes replaced Jamiet and flipped town he told he will sheep Xorxes but never did (Xorxes coincidentally was scumreading Chaqa).

And now he is saying he don't have a clue but is voting me because of "reasons". How is this trying to solve anything?

@Rivera: I am voting you because I am not scum. If you are trying to convince others I am scum, you are either wrong or scum. I will assume the later.

[e.m.c^42]

rd, assume for a second we're both town. Who's scum?

If today is cross-bussing from rdr and ghug this would read taunting as sort of an in-joke.

[e.m.c^42]

But no, I said I'd try to leave tunnel, so that is probably all confbias, so ignore for now hah

[e.m.c^42]

I'm pretty sure it's not GR anyway!

Man, that would be awesome.

Yet here I am reading into it again, another teasing remark.

[worcej]

If I add back EG and GW then I get the following frequency count:

E 3
G 3
J 3
R 1
W 1

However E and G are voting each other so if I give this pairing less weight J is still the best vote.

I'm interested in what W has to say.

What do you think I would say? My strongest townread is JBH due to trying to figure the damn game out.

How on Earth he is tryng to figure the game out? He started with a spreadsheet or something he never presented. Then tunnelled Jamiet with a tinfoil theory. When Xorxes replaced Jamiet and flipped town he told he will sheep Xorxes but never did (Xorxes coincidentally was scumreading Chaqa).

And now he is saying he don't have a clue but is voting me because of "reasons". How is this trying to solve anything?

I understand the confusion here - what I meant is JBH is my strongest town read because I am trying to figure the game out.

My running theory is 3 guns, 3 claims, 2 dead. JBH = town.

[e.m.c^42]

Going to see if I can nap off remaining blurriness, shall return in hour or so.