Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

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Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

#1 Post by noumenal » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:15 am

A recent game got me to thinking about how Germany has some great negotiating tools at his disposal in 1901. Specifically, Sweden gives him leverage over Russia and an army and Ruhr gives him leverage with France over Belgium.

So, combine those two bargaining chips and you have the tools to get France and Russia to join you in a quick hit on England, aka a Sealion.

In pre-Spring negotiations, Germany should indicate to Russia that he would like to see A Mos-StP and in exchange for that, Germany will let Russia into Sweden in the Fall. (Also, a Russian opening to the North means Russia is putting less pressure on Austria, and statistically Germany does well when Austria does well.)

Next, Germany should talk to France and prime him to take an aggressive line against England. The real challenge here is getting France to move F Bre-ENG, which is absolutely essential in my opinion, especially if France is skittish and prefers to stick to Iberia in 1901. Germany should promise Belgium as an additional incentive, as well as London at some point down the road.

Finally, in talks with England, Germany should (truthfully) mention that Russia is planning a Northern opening and warn England that Norway may need to be taken by force, while mentioning nothing about France. The thought of no builds in 1901 is usually enough to motivate England to push the fleets to NTH and NWG and ensure that France gets into ENG.

If all goes according to plan, the moves we should see are:

France: F Bre-ENG, A Par-Pic, A Mar-Spa;
Germany: F Kie-Den, A Ber-Kie, A Mun-Ruh;
Russia: F StP-BOT, A Mos-Stp;
England, F Lon-NTH, F Edi-NWG, A Lpl-Yor.

At this point England should be panicking and see R/F as enemies. Since G accurately warned England about R's northern opening, E will now be more likely to trust him. This leaves G in a great spot for Fall 1901 as R/F as he can go one of two ways based on the diplomatic winds:

1) Continue with the Sealion and cruelly play F Den-NTH, cutting E's support to Norway and leaving him with no builds, while letting R have Sweden and F have Belgium;

2) let E into Norway and in general let R/F do the hard work on the Sealion while G sees the builds for Winter 1901, not burning his bridges with anyone. By Spring 1902, G can side with E and turn against F, with R left stuck in the north unable to secure the promised land in Norway and unable to exert maximum pressure on Austria, as he often does in a normal Southern opening. Germany enters 1902 with a strategically comfortable position: no more than one foe (F), two players likely to be sympathetic to him (E/R), and an Austria strong enough to act as a buffer from the south (unless there is a rare I/T alliance).

Thoughts? :)

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Re: Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

#2 Post by Claesar » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:49 am

Interesting thoughts, thanks!

Den-NTH doesn't necessarily cut the support on Norway, but it's indeed likely. Germany is unlikely to give up NTH there, but they might due to the French fleet in ENG (which could also cut that support).

Does your evaluation in Autumn change when England opens Lpl-Edi?

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Re: Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

#3 Post by Mercy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:34 am

Looks good. My biggest worry would be that things will leak.

For example, England could tell Russia in the spring of 1901 that he 'has intel' that he plans to do a northern opening and wants to change his mind. That may alert Russia that you are playing as a double agent, if you are the only one he told he would do a northern opening.

Alternatively, in the autumn of 1901, Russia can tell England 'Sorry man, but I got a nice offer from France and Germany', which may alert England.

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Re: Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

#4 Post by mhsmith0 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:51 pm

If England smells a sealion, it's usually a good idea to try and get Austria into Galicia and Turkey into Armenia, which puts Russia in a pretty nasty spot. Getting Italy and Austria to be EXTREMELY friendly can also potentially be helpful; if Italy is in Pie and F Tunis in winter 1901, France has problems aplenty. Much harder to really punish Germany for running a Sealion in the short term, but if England can survive for long enough, he can eventually turn it around.

wrt original post, I'd actually say that if Germany organizes a Sealion and then turns around and stabs it, he'll have established himself as untrustworthy and created enemies, and at that point EF becomes a legitimate danger, and Russia usually won't get rolled up super quickly in that world either.

I'd also note that England is a power who really ought to not get caught in a Sealion to begin with - I'd consider a spring 1901 three-way alliance against any single power (FGR against E; EGI against F; AIR against T; TIR against A; GAT against R; etc) to be a pretty major failure of diplomacy

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Re: Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

#5 Post by Anders Mårup » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:11 am

Why a failure? I have had a lot of succes by closing down a flank quickly.

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Re: Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901

#6 Post by mhsmith0 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:04 pm

Anders Mårup wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:11 am
Why a failure? I have had a lot of succes by closing down a flank quickly.
To clarify, I’m talking about a failure on the part of the power who got targeted, not the peolle killing him.

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