Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

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gimix
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#21 Post by gimix » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:39 pm

Or lower :D :D
But i'm not sure your estimate is correct. Assuming a 50% average solo rate most of the players should have 1 or 2 solos, with a few having 0 or 3. Since we have (at least) 80 players a normal distribution would mean about 40 of them will be in the 2-to-3 range. So the 3-soloers will qualify, and some of the 2-soloers will join them. Perhaps someone with a 2-way draw, if it is a possible outcome at all when playing with the bots - and/or someone with a 3-way. It will be very close i think

Claesar
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#22 Post by Claesar » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:57 pm

gimix wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:39 pm
Or lower :D :D
But i'm not sure your estimate is correct. Assuming a 50% average solo rate most of the players should have 1 or 2 solos, with a few having 0 or 3. Since we have (at least) 80 players a normal distribution would mean about 40 of them will be in the 2-to-3 range. So the 3-soloers will qualify, and some of the 2-soloers will join them. Perhaps someone with a 2-way draw, if it is a possible outcome at all when playing with the bots - and/or someone with a 3-way. It will be very close i think
A 50% solo rate for everyone means:

1) 12.5% (0.5*0.5*0.5) of the players, i.e. 10, will have 3 solos.
3) 37.5% (3*0.5^3) of the players, i.e. 30, will have 2 or 3 solos.

So you're wrong about 40, but I also made a calculation error.. Only half the players with 2 solos will qualify given a 50% solo rate.

Chaqa
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#23 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:02 pm

Fuckin Italy...

Chaqa
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#24 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:03 pm

That's what I get for picking Austria...

My games are all either amazing, or dead in the water immediately.

yuuki
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#25 Post by yuuki » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:52 pm

Based on my experience so far, I think the solo rate will depend a lot on which countries were picked. I have found it so far extremely difficult to solo with England and Germany, which is curious given that those are two of the countries that I solo more often with on regular gunboat.

yuuki
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#26 Post by yuuki » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:53 pm

I'm slightly regretting picking France as it seems to me that it is easier to solo as Austria than France, but I'm glad my other countries are Italy and Turkey

KalelChase
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#27 Post by KalelChase » Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:50 pm

France, Italy & Russia done... wish I could have picked the same country for all three plays.

mhsmith0
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#28 Post by mhsmith0 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:51 pm

Feels like a good % of people are dying FAST as Austria, probably because Italy is attacking them in 1901 well more often than site meta suggests. Italy felt *TOO* easy to solo, mainly b/c I don't think the bots really recognized the importance of key stalemate line positions or when I was in strong position to stab or to start moving towards a solo.
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Carl Tuckerson
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#29 Post by Carl Tuckerson » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:07 pm

Italy is definitely tier 0 against the bots right now

Johnny Big Horse
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#30 Post by Johnny Big Horse » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:43 pm

I have been playing practice rounds before I play tournament games, and I am getting my ass kicked as Germany.

Johnny Big Horse
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#31 Post by Johnny Big Horse » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 pm

There is no way I will solo anything. I am just not champion material I guess

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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#32 Post by Johnny Big Horse » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:51 pm

Maybe we should change the tournament to 7 games, one for each country. Then you can get great data on which countries win, and the winners of the tournament have little to do with which countries they chose.
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BobMcBob
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#33 Post by BobMcBob » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:56 pm

Yep, I'm out of this tournament for sure. Bad decision-making lost me the first game, a 7-center Russia at the end of 1901 combined with a juggernaut (plus a lack of balancing decisions on my behalf) lost me the second. And then since there was no chance of me doing well in the tournament anyway, I suicided my last game.

These bots did a lot better in my tournament games than the few warm-up games I did. I guess the bots aren't so bad after all...
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random1
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#34 Post by random1 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:30 am

Got quickly destroyed as Austria, won as England. They don't recognize stalemate lines and are quite poor in the late game overall; if you make it past certain point, the game is probably yours.

bo_sox48
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#35 Post by bo_sox48 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:34 am

More invites have gone out. If you haven't gotten one but signed up, please let me know.

Congratulations to the 5 of you who have chosen countries other than France and Turkey.
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Chaqa
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#36 Post by Chaqa » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:15 am

bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:34 am
More invites have gone out. If you haven't gotten one but signed up, please let me know.

Congratulations to the 5 of you who have chosen countries other than France and Turkey.
Do we get a handicap or something?

bo_sox48
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#37 Post by bo_sox48 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:33 am

Some updates have been made to the bot to try and enhance its unpredictability in certain scenarios. If you have played your first three games and want to replay them with these changes, you are free to do so as long as you please simply PM me the URLs to your three new games.

Remember that this tournament is intended for all of us to get to know the bots and to have fun playing them, not just to crown a champion. But we'll do that too.
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BobMcBob
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#38 Post by BobMcBob » Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:57 am

bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:33 am
Some updates have been made to the bot to try and enhance its unpredictability in certain scenarios. If you have played your first three games and want to replay them with these changes, you are free to do so as long as you please simply PM me the URLs to your three new games.

Remember that this tournament is intended for all of us to get to know the bots and to have fun playing them, not just to crown a champion. But we'll do that too.
What time were these changes made? Are they the ones discussed by jmo yesterday on the main bot thread or are they more recent? They sound the same.

Carl Tuckerson
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#39 Post by Carl Tuckerson » Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:12 am

Hot take, England/Germany/Italy is the best roster

jmo1121109
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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

#40 Post by jmo1121109 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:21 am

BobMcBob wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:57 am
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:33 am
Some updates have been made to the bot to try and enhance its unpredictability in certain scenarios. If you have played your first three games and want to replay them with these changes, you are free to do so as long as you please simply PM me the URLs to your three new games.

Remember that this tournament is intended for all of us to get to know the bots and to have fun playing them, not just to crown a champion. But we'll do that too.
What time were these changes made? Are they the ones discussed by jmo yesterday on the main bot thread or are they more recent? They sound the same.
They're different. They only apply to 50% of the bots in a game selected at random to see which works out better. Changes the aggressiveness of the bots. Will make "gaming" a specific country/alliance near impossible on a consistent basis.

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