It's silly season, Ora. There are a load of political journalists with nothing remotely interesting to talk about. Anyone says anything and it counts as news. This isn't a new phenomenon. It's been like this since time immemorial.

It is not Tory bluster I am falling for, it is the BBC's shitty reporting.

As you say, the Torys know better. So why are the BBC putting this on their front page? They don't even have the excuse of sensationalization of news to sell more ads. They seem to just be a pravda for the UK

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:30 pm

@ https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49251257

How is this news? EU has said for months that they are not renegotiating the exit deal. This isn't news, except to the few Tories so wrapped up in their own fantastical worlds...

Once again you're falling for the bluster, Ora. There are no Tories remotely surprised by this.

@ https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49251257

How is this news? EU has said for months that they are not renegotiating the exit deal. This isn't news, except to the few Tories so wrapped up in their own fantastical worlds...

Yes - By-elections very often turn into two horse races between the incumbent party and the by-election specialists, with the occasional spoiling factor of an insurgent party (UKIP a few years ago, the Brexit Party today). It's not uncommon for whichever one of Labour or the Tories that don't have a realistic chance of making a gain to just write the campaign off and see their vote obliterated as a result: Not least because they'd both generally rather that the Lib Dems won the seat than their real opposition did.

And yeah, Labour is indeed in a lot of shit - but the byelection isn't illustrative of any of it.

Yeah, Owen Jones was making a big issue of the old Romsey by election yesterday. In all honesty it's a fair point. You can't point to Thursday's election and say it proves that Labour is in trouble. Pretty much everything else points to Labour being up to their necks and sinking, but the by election by itself doesn't add much.

UKIP's corpse only twitched because they got less votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party...


As for Labour - they always do terribly in by-elections that are between the Lib Dems and the Tories. Here's one at the height of Blair's power:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA862SyWkAA ... name=large

So reading too much into a campaign they didn't even bother to try in is a bit dubious.

The result suits the Brexit Party just fine. They'd have probably preferred a few more votes, but they've proven once again that they can hurt the Tories if they want to. If the Tories are looking for an election the result suits their purposes too. It they wanted to win that badly they would probably have chosen someone other than a convicted fraudster to fight the seat.

The Tories and the Brexit Party forming some kind of pact is damned near a certainty. Forming the pact now would have won them the seat, but may well have been enough to panic Labour into some action. Instead the Remain parties are sat on their hands happy with the delusion that the Brexit Party are going to split the Brexit Party and allow Remain to triumph.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:15 pm

<snip>

Labour rolled over and died, and aren't saying much to anyone.

The corpse of UKIP twitched slightly, but that may have just been the wind.

Can we be fair to the corpses? Labour came 4th, proving that not having a strong position on the brexit question will kill you in a general election.

UKIP came 6th, after the monster racing loon party (whose position on Brexit I am not up to date with). Proving that Nigel Farage has left a rump behind, unclear whether they are racists or ultra nationalists... But when up against two other brexit parties they are dead... Still the monster raving loons aren't exactly prime competition for anyone legitimate party, so losing to them shows exactly how badly UKIP is doing.

Now the important noise. Plaid Cymru and the Greens made an election pact with the Lib Dems, and thus only one pro-remain candidate appeared on the ballet. Effectively winning the seat by not splitting the vote. The Tories and Brexit party could have had another pro-brexit seat, if only they could learn to work together...

It's an interesting question whether the Brexit Party would benefit from preferential voting or not. Clearly they'd get more first preference votes, and may even pick up a few seats in a general election. However they'd also lose most of their ability to deny votes to the Tories, which is the source of their current considerable influence... I reckon the BP are secretly quite happy with how FPTP is working for them.

There was a referendum about introducing a form of preferential voting back in 2011, but the public were strongly against the idea. Well, the ones who bothered to vote were strongly against it anyway. I guess the majority were unfussed.

flash2015 wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:35 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:15 pm

So, update from the by-election

The Lib Dems won it, and are telling everyone who will listen that it's part of their stunning return to relevance and the beginning of the end of Brexit.

The Tories came a surprisingly close second, and are telling everyone who will listen that this above expectations result is a sign that Boris and the new clarity on Brexit is winning people over.

The Brexit Party took enough votes off the Tories for them to lose, and are telling everyone who will listen how they have the ability to destroy any hope of a Tory majority in a new election if they so wish.

Labour rolled over and died, and aren't saying much to anyone.

The corpse of UKIP twitched slightly, but that may have just been the wind.

So Britain doesn't have preferential voting? I ask because if it did I would have assumed Brexit Party preferences would have flowed to the Tories.

Straight first-past-the-post pluarality voting is what we have. It's like in Mafia. Each voter has one vote, and votes for one particular candidate only. A candidate only needs one more vote than the nearest competitor, to be elected.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:15 pm

So, update from the by-election

The Lib Dems won it, and are telling everyone who will listen that it's part of their stunning return to relevance and the beginning of the end of Brexit.

The Tories came a surprisingly close second, and are telling everyone who will listen that this above expectations result is a sign that Boris and the new clarity on Brexit is winning people over.

The Brexit Party took enough votes off the Tories for them to lose, and are telling everyone who will listen how they have the ability to destroy any hope of a Tory majority in a new election if they so wish.

Labour rolled over and died, and aren't saying much to anyone.

The corpse of UKIP twitched slightly, but that may have just been the wind.

So Britain doesn't have preferential voting? I ask because if it did I would have assumed Brexit Party preferences would have flowed to the Tories.

So, update from the by-election

The Lib Dems won it, and are telling everyone who will listen that it's part of their stunning return to relevance and the beginning of the end of Brexit.

The Tories came a surprisingly close second, and are telling everyone who will listen that this above expectations result is a sign that Boris and the new clarity on Brexit is winning people over.

The Brexit Party took enough votes off the Tories for them to lose, and are telling everyone who will listen how they have the ability to destroy any hope of a Tory majority in a new election if they so wish.

Labour rolled over and died, and aren't saying much to anyone.

The corpse of UKIP twitched slightly, but that may have just been the wind.

@peterlund: no, parliament has the power to force the PM to ask for an extention. So as Octavious stated, a new parliament willing to not do so is his only hope. A general election in October days before brexit will be the closest remain vote get to a second referendum. 'Project Fear'* and national pride will likely feature heavily.

Which may just win an election... But I don't know if Boris actually wants a no deal.

The latest Nigel Farage headlines seem to indicate Boris is planning to remain in the single market and customs union for a few more years... Which would be perfectly fine for trade, and move brexit negotiations into new trade deal negotiations... Definitely something he could spin as a victory.

And I do not think there is any room for renegotiation either...

As I have understood, Boris can get his no-deal by not signing the deal on the table and not asking EU for an extension of leave date. Then UK will leave the EU by failing to approve the deal at hand.

orathaic wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:48 am

Hahahahahaha.

Good luck. The only plan seems to be fucking over the country, unless no deal planning is a bluff. We'll see if they can even get a no deal through Parliament.

Have you not been paying attention, Ora? Of course he can't get no deal through Parliament. That's been obvious for ages. In politics, as in Diplomacy, the most important skill is being able to count. The fact that you're even entertaining an idea you know is impossible shows how effective his bluster has been.

He can't get no deal through Parliament, so either he has no intention of getting no deal, or he is planning on getting a new Parliament. I suspect the latter.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:53 pm

Boris has been planning this for years. He's a ruthless campaigner with an impressive head on his shoulders and an ability to come across as likable. I rather suspect that his plan for Brexit will work pretty much exactly as he intends it... I just have no idea what that plan actually is.

The cabinet could well be fun, and Dominic Cummings (Moriarty reborn) is his top advisor.

Hahahahahaha.

Good luck. The only plan seems to be fucking over the country, unless no deal planning is a bluff. We'll see if they can even get a no deal through Parliament.

I don't really buy the idea that Boris is in it for wealth - I think that wealth is such a second nature to him that he automatically assumes he'll always have a high supply of it. His comments about how he'd "probably have to give up" those cushy journalist payments if he became PM illustrate how nonchalant he is to the whole issue. He's rich and he'll always be rich.

I think it's far more about ego - not in a dissimilar way to David Cameron - and simply believing that he "deserves" power, it's his god-given right to run the country. He's like an ancient Roman Populist, willing to say or do anything that will endear him to "the people" and get him into power.


As for the lack of real "Big Hitters", Octavious isn't far off the mark. In the current Tory party it seems that being good at your job is actually an outright negative - as those who have screwed things up keep getting promoted while those who have actually performed well in high profile Cabinet roles keep getting sent to the backbenches (Justine Greening and Penny Mordaunt being most notable examples). When the "most competent Cabinet member" is probably Michael Gove you know that you're in trouble.

Sadly Labour do indeed also miss having big-hitters. From the Shadow Cabinet it's quite hard to think of many who have really caught the eye or performed particularly well - McDonnell has certainly grown into the shadow chancellor role, and Keir Starmer has garnered a lot of respect, but the rest of them are mostly non-entities or outright weak points too. Long-Bailey seems to be an "up and comer" but she's got a lot to prove yet.

Of course having about a third of the MP's still holding the leadership and membership in barely concealed contempt there doesn't help. Tom Watson uses his Deputy Leader role to continually boost the prospects of every party other than Labour, and while most of the more rabidly anti-leadership MP's have either stood down (Tristram Hunt), lost the whip and been deselected (Danczuk), or defected to ChangeUK (Umunna, Leslie, Grapes) or to general independence (Austin), there's still a handful of backbenchers who get bizarrely high amounts of airtime on BBC and use it to continually attack the party (Jess Phillipps springs to mind). And given how incompetent that lot showed they were both in the 'Chicken Coup' leadership challenge a few years ago and then in the hilarious shitshow that was ChangeUK, it looks like the stain of it runs through both camps in the party.

As for the Lib Dems - given their general shortage of MPs it's not really a surprise that they'll take whoever they can get at the moment. I doubt Umunna will be the last of the ChangeUK lot they let in.