Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

Forum rules
1.) No personal threats.
2.) No doxxing/revealing personal information.
3.) No spam.
4.) No circumventing press restrictions.
5.) No racism, sexism, homophobia, or derogatory posts.

Post a reply

Confirmation code
Enter the code exactly as it appears. All letters are case insensitive.
Smilies
:points: :-D :eyeroll: :neutral: :nmr: :razz: :raging: :-) ;) :( :sick: :o :? 8-) :x :shock: :lol: :cry: :evil: :?: :smirk: :!:
View more smilies

BBCode is ON
[img] is ON
[flash] is OFF
[url] is OFF
Smilies are ON

Topic review
   

If you wish to attach one or more files enter the details below.

Expand view Topic review: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Octavious » Sun Oct 27, 2024 4:38 pm

I'm about an hour in to that podcast...

You know, if a developing trend of modern politics is for candidates to be given a platform in which they have the time and freedom to flesh out their thinking without resorting to soundbites, I'm pleasantly surprised. It shouldn't be a replacement for serious journalistic interrogation, of course, but I'd be delighted if this becomes the new normal

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Sun Oct 27, 2024 12:31 am

Sorry if I got a little heated. I find it bothersome when excuses get made for Trump's 2020 behaviour, which seems very obviously wrong to me and something that should be easily condemned.

I'm also enjoying the show from Canada. Trump did very well on Rogan's podcast today. I wouldn't vote for him if I had the chance, but I can see why he's likely to win — he's a good yapper, he dodges the hard questions well, and his message is very clear.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Octavious » Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:46 pm

Esquire Bertissimmo wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2024 7:40 pm
Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2024 5:15 pm
Regarding Trump's wrongness, I still very much suspect that he genuinely thought he'd won. It's hard to know for sure, but if his campaign team polling (which served him so well in the previous election) was telling him he was winning then this and the night's early results could easily have convinced him. Contesting the result in these circumstances is perhaps distasteful, depending on how you feel about such things, but it is also understandable

Once time had moved on and the reality of his defeat became more clear he should of course have dropped the issue. But for Trump admitting errors is far more difficult than simply pretending they never happened. Continued denial is his path of least resistance
He tried his darndest to tell everyone the election would be rigged before it even happened. He continues to lie about it 4 years later even after the evidence is crystal clear. It's so obviously a cynical a self-serving move that I'm confused why so many Americans seem to give it a pass.

Maybe you hate the Dems so much that you're fine supporting a candidate who is so selfish that he knowingly and falsely denigrates a probably fair electoral system, but there's no sense in excusing his particular lapse of judgement.
What makes you think I hate the Democrats? I find them extremely disappointing to the point that if I was a Yank I'd probably not vote for them, but I'd have been not voting Republican for a lot longer. There's not a chance in hell I'd ever vote for Trump if I had a say in the matter, but as I don't I can sit back and enjoy the show. As for whether or not it was lapse of judgement, if Trump goes on to win his strategy of denying the defeat seems less of a lapse than a solid political call.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Sat Oct 26, 2024 7:58 pm

*provably, not probably lol

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Sat Oct 26, 2024 7:40 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2024 5:15 pm
Regarding Trump's wrongness, I still very much suspect that he genuinely thought he'd won. It's hard to know for sure, but if his campaign team polling (which served him so well in the previous election) was telling him he was winning then this and the night's early results could easily have convinced him. Contesting the result in these circumstances is perhaps distasteful, depending on how you feel about such things, but it is also understandable

Once time had moved on and the reality of his defeat became more clear he should of course have dropped the issue. But for Trump admitting errors is far more difficult than simply pretending they never happened. Continued denial is his path of least resistance
He tried his darndest to tell everyone the election would be rigged before it even happened. He continues to lie about it 4 years later even after the evidence is crystal clear. It's so obviously a cynical a self-serving move that I'm confused why so many Americans seem to give it a pass.

Maybe you hate the Dems so much that you're fine supporting a candidate who is so selfish that he knowingly and falsely denigrates a probably fair electoral system, but there's no sense in excusing his particular lapse of judgement.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Octavious » Sat Oct 26, 2024 5:15 pm

There have been a couple of others within living memory, but that's the most notable from the time I've been aware of American elections.

Regarding Trump's wrongness, I still very much suspect that he genuinely thought he'd won. It's hard to know for sure, but if his campaign team polling (which served him so well in the previous election) was telling him he was winning then this and the night's early results could easily have convinced him. Contesting the result in these circumstances is perhaps distasteful, depending on how you feel about such things, but it is also understandable

Once time had moved on and the reality of his defeat became more clear he should of course have dropped the issue. But for Trump admitting errors is far more difficult than simply pretending they never happened. Continued denial is his path of least resistance

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Jamiet99uk » Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:44 am

I assume Octavious may be referring to the 2000 presidential election in which Al Gore lost the state of Florida by something like 350 votes and the State government in Florida made a mess of the recount.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Fri Oct 25, 2024 9:01 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2024 8:24 pm
I agree that Trump's behaviour following the last election was pretty dire, and the way both parties have employed armies of lawyers in preparation for this election is extremely depressing. But there have arguably been previous elections where the "losing" candidate should have made a bigger fuss, and if he had history may have been somewhat different.
This point of view really confuses me.

Elections are sometimes contestable. We should all be vigilant for error and cheating. But candidates need to relent in the face of overwhelming evidence of their loss. Trump wasn't wrong because he dared question an election outcome - rather, he remains wrong for promulgating a conspiracy theory about his "win" that, to this day, has no factual basis.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Octavious » Fri Oct 25, 2024 8:24 pm

He didn't start any wars, granted, but he most definitely failed to prevent them. Whether Trump would have failed as well is a matter of debate, although his record in government holds him in a good light in that regard if nothing else. Harris is more of an unknown, but she can hardly have dropped the ball any harder than Biden.

I agree that Trump's behaviour following the last election was pretty dire, and the way both parties have employed armies of lawyers in preparation for this election is extremely depressing. But there have arguably been previous elections where the "losing" candidate should have made a bigger fuss, and if he had history may have been somewhat different.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:57 pm

There's lots to criticize Biden and the Dems for, but not all of that sticks. What war did Biden start? What's the counterfactual in Ukraine or Iran if Trump had been in power this whole time? It's different, but I'm not certain it's better (maximal concessions in Ukraine? an active war against Iran?)

Trump is too old to stick around forever, but that's the easy concern to dismiss given his age. You don't think there's anything unique about how Trump talks about his electoral loss in 2020? No Republican in my lifetime has so openly disdained and denigrated the mechanics of democracy. It's clearly corrosive.

If today's populism is just a fad then it's a bad fad that ought to be opposed. Both parties are becoming more dogmatic about their policy positions and less able to discuss risks and trade-offs.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Octavious » Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:40 pm

In all honesty after Biden's performance of throwing Afghanistan to the wolves and marching the world to the verge of a nuclear war with conflict erupting all over the place, I'm rather hoping for a modest improvement regardless of who wins.

If Trump wins the chances of him trying to hold on for longer than his term is effectively zero. He'll be a two termer and will be happily relaxing into the position of elder statesman and kingmaker. The Democrats have been dumb for years. Getting dumber will take a hell of a lot of effort. As for populism, political fads come and go. All you need is for a charismatic candidate to make playing it straight their usp and it'll all be reversed

Impending Trump Victory?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:18 pm

The Republicans have opened up a commanding lead in the polls and betting markets. With only a few weeks to election day, it's seeming rather likely that Trump will be reelected.

A range of doomsday scenarios are promoted by left-leaning partisans, often exaggerating the potential downsides of a second Trump term. However, many serious problems require no exaggeration to recognize.

If Trump wins again:

- Refusing to accept the results of demonstrably fair elections could become a standard political tactic, alongside a host of other Trump-specific maladies (e.g., plainly voicing disregard for democratic institutions, etc.).

- The Republican party will be set more permanently down the path of populism, eroding its ability to genuinely participate in a fact-based conversation about unpopular issues such as trade, debt, and climate action.

- The US will face at least four more years of backtracking on climate action, significantly hindering global efforts to combat climate change and increasing the likelihood of severe, long-term environmental and economic consequences.

- The Dems will almost certainly get dumber in response. Right populism will increasingly be met with left populism, with every policy debate becoming a race to the bottom with no regard for the facts.

And of course there are downside risks to a Trump victory. Trump's inner circle appears more compliant than ever - former critics (e.g., Vance) have acceded to the purity test of pretending that Trump won in 2020. There will be very few brakes and checks on Trump if he decides to do some of the more out-there things he has proposed (e.g., mass deportation).

VP Vance

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Mon Jul 15, 2024 10:25 pm

That analysis seems a little glib.

I agree that Trump is basically guaranteed to win the presidency regardless of his VP pick, but it's still a meaningful choice. Trump's VP has a reasonable chance of becoming President in the coming four years - Trump is old, his health is probably not great, and we've all just been reminded that US political figures are vulnerable to assassination.

I'm surprised he picked Vance. Why would he pick a running mate who has said nasty things about him in the past, especially when he doesn't actually need their support to win?

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by brainbomb » Mon Jul 15, 2024 10:07 pm

It speaks to the strategy of

Oh that guy
Yea sure him
Who cares?

Basically biden is losing badly and the best strategy wouldve been to just let it ride

Instead some psycho tried to assassinate Trump. Now hes pretty much gonna win in a massive landslide. Hell he might even carry states like colorado and minnesota now.

The vp pick adds nothing to any of this really.

Short of biden dropping out and kamala naming michelle obama, taylor swift or AOC as a vp this is a epic loss

VP Vance

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:55 pm

Looks like Trump has made his VP pick.

JD Vance was one of the better known contenders, but I still feel I don't know much about him.

What does a Vance VP pick say about Trump's strategy?

What would a Vance Presidency look like if Trump won the election but became unable to serve as President?

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by CaptainFritz28 » Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:53 pm

I'm just refuting what Brainbomb said here:
How is it possible that Biden can be senile, a moron, incoherent, and incompetant. And also capable of stealing an election, staging fake ballots, rigging entire states results, and also covering up for his sons crimes by hiding evidence that would surely get Hunter imprisoned.
I think there are reasons to believe that some of those things didn't happen, but Brainbomb's argument here doesn't stand. There are others in his party that will gladly do this for him if he does what they tell him to do.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:20 pm

CaptainFritz28 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2024 8:57 pm
That said, I was talking about Biden being a puppet of his party, of the politicians themselves, not of the people.
It seems like you're trying to say Biden is unusually puppet-esque in some anti-democratic way. I don't think that's quite right. Didn't voters opt for his party in the last election? Shouldn't there be some balance between keeping Biden's core supporters (centrist Democrats) happy, while also reflecting at least some of the policy preferences of other Democrats (e.g., progressives)? Many Biden voters picked him because he was the most-left viable candidate, not because they wanted his particular brand of centrist politics - if he wants to keep progressives' votes, he has to do at least some of what they want. That's democracy working well in my view.

My assessment of whether the Biden admin has balanced these competing policy priorities appropriately doesn't matter - the upcoming election will tell us what the US electorate thinks.

Of course, the nature of the US political duopoly means that voters have extremely meager choices, which emboldens both parties to pile on policies that a majority of Americans disagree with in order to placate primary voters, sway strategic donors, etc. It's a systemic problem that goes beyond the personal failings of any particular president.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by CaptainFritz28 » Wed Apr 17, 2024 8:57 pm

Agreed. The idea of being beholden to your party at all costs is ridiculous. Representatives should simply represent their constituents, it's their job.

That said, I was talking about Biden being a puppet of his party, of the politicians themselves, not of the people.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by Esquire Bertissimmo » Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:45 pm

It's easy to exaggerate the mental decline of both Trump and Biden. Yes, it's terrible that they're both so old. Their age has cognitive consequences that, in my view, should be considered disqualifying for the most important job on earth. But they're both still smart, capable human beings. They're still skilled political operatives. They each have a genuine policy agenda and the will to make it happen. Yes, their age makes them gaffe prone. It means they could suffer further mental decline or inconvenient health episodes. But neither man is a vegetable lol.

All elected officials are "puppets" in a democracy in that we don't elect God Kings who rule by edict. All presidents need to keep a viable winning coalition of voters and donors happy. They're restrained by congress, the courts, state power, etc. Their power is even mediated by compromises they have to make to keep their own advisors, their own Cabinet, and the bureaucracy in-line.

Trump is better at selling his policy compromises as if they were his own convictions, but its clearly untrue. Trump has been for and against abortion, for and against immigration and free trade, for and against gun control, etc. But he sells these turns with bravado and his supporters don't seem to mind the inconsistency. Biden is a less adept showman and so the compromises he makes with, say, the progressive wing of his party, look more spinelessness.

What is derided as flip-flopping or being a puppet is actually the core benefit of democracy. Elected leaders should subordinate their own policy views to the compromises necessary to sustain democratic power. They should flip-flop on policy issues if the constituents they represent change their mind.

Re: Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

by CaptainFritz28 » Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:49 pm

He's not. He doesn't "mastermind" anything, that wouldn't be possible in his mental state. What, you think he's all alone in the White House? It's pretty obvious that he's a puppet of his party, not that the party is a puppet of his.

Top