[Poll] Balkan Gambit

by **eturnage** » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:27 am

A Vie - Bud
A move that is reasonable if you have an alliance with Turkey and a DMZ in Gal. Turkey bounces F Sev - Bla with F Ank - Bla and orders A Smy-Arm. Austria moves A Bud-Rum. A Vie-Bud allows Austria to order A Bud-Ser in the fall.

Turkey orders F Ank-Bla; A Arm - Sev; A Bul S Rum. Austria orders A Rum S TURKISH A Arm-Sev, or vice versa. Maybe two builds for both. No Rum and Sev at risk for Russia.

by **dancing queen** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:15 pm

Claesar wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:18 pm

Enriador wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:51 pm
...
Does anyone do A VIE-BUD? If so why?
I've seen it happen. If you DMZ Gal and believe Italy won't go to Tri, Bud seems the most logical next choice. It allows you to influence Rumania.

Yep - F01 Army Bud / A Ser / F Alb is a very strong position for exerting influence - always supposing you aren't dealing with Italians &/or Russians attacking at the same time. Non-Zero Chance for a 3 build, if you can get R or T to support/allow Bud -> Rum - not impossible if there is a Turk in Armenia.

by **Claesar** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:18 pm

Enriador wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:51 pm
...
Does anyone do A VIE-BUD? If so why?

I've seen it happen. If you DMZ Gal and believe Italy won't go to Tri, Bud seems the most logical next choice. It allows you to influence Rumania.

by **Enriador** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:51 pm

ckroberts wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:54 pm
I don't have much to add except that this an excellent thread. I like the new forum now.

I was skeptic at first, but the new format allows more in-depth discussion which is awesome.

Does anyone do A VIE-BUD? If so why?

by **ckroberts** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:54 pm

I don't have much to add except that this an excellent thread. I like the new forum now.

by **Enriador** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:57 pm

ziran wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:13 am
@enriador, care to link those games in which Austria and Italy conspire to take Munich?

These games were on Conspiracy, both times in private games with a few friends I met on vDip/Droidippy. Look for "Enriador" on the "Observed games" section and you'll find it.

Philosophically, I, and I believe most competent Austria's will suicide on Italy for wrecking the Austrian game in S01. I'm going to make sure Italy pays for that one dot stab even if I ultimately die under Turkish knives. I will go to my maker knowing that Italy will soon likely meet the same fate.

I share the same philosophy - if my fellow Weak Sister dares to screw up my game, I will surely retribute as much as I can. Also applies to Turkey going F ANK-BLA, A SMY-ARM.

On A WAR-GAL: I believe it's a superb move, but not a no-brainer. Certainly useful in most contexts, but we should not understimate the power of freeing A WAR (and thus A MOS) to do other stuff.

by **ziran** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:13 am

@enriador, care to link those games in which Austria and Italy conspire to take Munich?

by **eturnage** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:22 pm

Chris I watched your series. Great point on Doug. Goffy also missed a lot of tells from Peter in that WDC game as Russia . . . as you illustrated in your commentary. Even great players like Goff are susceptible to believing what they want to believe . . . even in the face of perceptible indication (moves and body language) that things were not as Peter was telling him. Goff would probably agree that wasn't one of his better games.

I answered A Vie-Gal in the poll because in most games Italy understands that taking Trieste is a short term strategy and generally leads to greater Turkish profits. Philosophically, I, and I believe most competent Austria's will suicide on Italy for wrecking the Austrian game in S01. I'm going to make sure Italy pays for that one dot stab even if I ultimately die under Turkish knives. I will go to my maker knowing that Italy will soon likely meet the same fate.

However, there is a ton of merit to working something out with Russia for a DMZ in Gal. If you can get Russia going north or against Germany, that's a great situation for Austria generally speaking.

by **dancing queen** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:23 am

ziran wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:31 am
coincidentally, i rewatched that video recently. another thing that strikes me (and you explicitly point this out) is the way in which peter (as austria) tells andrew (as russia), that vienna always goes to trieste. he says it in such a way that you immediately know that it's true. he negotiates a DMZ in galicia and warsaw holds, and vienna ends up bouncing venice out of trieste. it is unfortunate that peter's negotiations with chris (as italy) are unavailable for that phase.

the fact that warsaw holds is particularly impressive since i consider that a pretty weak move. ya'll may disagree though.

Probably belongs in another thread, but Goffy's play here - the slow, "I'm not a threat to anyone" play - works very very well, for him in so many ways. He's a good enough negotiator that he can persuade people that his help is worth more than his dots, and he's a good enough tactician to win most "fair" fights. In this game, his mistake was ruining Doug's game in Germany (which we discuss), because Doug Moore is absolutely someone With Whom You Do Not Want To Fuck.

Once Doug started devoting his not inconsiderable energy towards ruining Goffy's game, Russia couldn't get any traction. This, more than anything else, I argue, is what led to Chris Brand winning WDC that year.

And of course Doug went on to win the following year in Oxford, so he got his revenge. :D

by **Enriador** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:21 pm

Claesar wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:35 am

Enriador wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:46 am
...
I loved the mention about how good is for Russia to *not* move to Galicia. A WAR Hold *is* a very weak move, but so is A WAR-GAL when it bounces - an army stuck in Warsaw is utterly useless!
...
The bounce indirectly helps taking Rumania, of course, so it's not utterly worthless. In fact, I'd say that's the main reason to bounce in Gal for Russia. It makes sure Austria can't put an extra army on Rumania.

Keeping Galicia clean is useful, but once the army has bounced it's stuck for a good while. As Russia, I only move there when sure of Austria going there as well. Otherwise, DMZ!

by **Claesar** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:35 am

Enriador wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:46 am
...
I loved the mention about how good is for Russia to *not* move to Galicia. A WAR Hold *is* a very weak move, but so is A WAR-GAL when it bounces - an army stuck in Warsaw is utterly useless!
...

The bounce indirectly helps taking Rumania, of course, so it's not utterly worthless. In fact, I'd say that's the main reason to bounce in Gal for Russia. It makes sure Austria can't put an extra army on Rumania.

by **Enriador** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:46 am

A VIE-BOH, coupled with A VEN-TYR, gives both Italy and Austria 2 centers each (TUN and MUN, GRE and SER). A fancy opening that I tried twice recently to astonishing success and boardwide surprise. Worth it only for the look on the Kaiser's face!

A VIE-TYR is justified if Germany agrees to A MUN-TYR and has thrown its diplomatic weight around to keep Italy and Russia focused elsewhere.

I don't get A VIE-BUD. If you want to threaten Rumania, why not move to Galicia? If you want to keep a hand open on Serbia and Trieste, why not move to Trieste right away? A VIE Hold doesn't make sense either.

I loved the mention about how good is for Russia to *not* move to Galicia. A WAR Hold *is* a very weak move, but so is A WAR-GAL when it bounces - an army stuck in Warsaw is utterly useless!

Why not keep Galicia clean and go for more useful places which you are guaranteed to reach, like Ukraine (for Rumania), or Silesia (for Berlin/Munich) or even Livonia (for convoy into Sweden and supported attack on Denmark in 1902)?

I greatly respect A VIE-GAL, but A VIE-TRI is a favorite as far as the Balkan Gambit is concerned. The Balkan Gambit is for an optimistic Archduke seeking to avoid the worst thing that can possibly happen to Austria - an Italian army in Trieste by Spring and thus the guarantee of losing a home center no matter what you do.

by **GarlMargs** » Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:30 pm

dancing queen wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am

I could go on, but I've certainly added this move to my repertoire. Prez talks about the metagame where you have to bounce Galicia and Italy won't run in on you, and its very real. But thinking out of the box is what can break a game wide open, and as Austria, you don't want to be the one who it gets broken on.

You raised some good points. I suppose it really comes down to a difference of philosophy on how to deal with the "main goal is to stay alive" bit. I'm not keen on the Balkan Gambit in general. It seems far too reckless most of the time and I generally won't try it unless Italy and I hit it off famously. In my experience, a good relationship with Italy usually implies a central powers alliance against Turkey and Russia, in which case the move to Galicia makes the most sense.

Thinking outside the box ain't bad though. I can see how a move to Bohemia in S01 could be interesting if Russia is keen on taking out Germany and Italy can be bought off somehow.

by **Dejan0707** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:50 pm

First thing that I do is to speak with Germany and see is he interested to use his influence in Sweden to help poor old Austrian ally. If Germany is sensitive enough then Germany, Russia and me make agreement: if Russia is not in Galicia in fall he can take Sweden and Germany would let him in.

If that works and it should as all players gets some benefits, I concentrate in Italy to make sure he will not make a stab.

I think I never seen Russia moving to Galicia when I used that strategy but I had few Italian player stabing. Therefore I find Italy more problematic to handle.

It is possible to try to arrange with Germany the same thing as with Russia but unfortunatelly Germany does not have the chance to punish Italy unless he uses his army in Munich which is better used to strengthen German interests in west.

by **ghug** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:22 pm

I tend to tell Russia up front that I'm happy to DMZ Galicia if they are doing any of those other things. If they can't tell me what they want to do with the Warsaw army, it's a clear sign that they just want to stab for Gal, at which point it's better to just arrange the bounce and trust Italy.

by **President Eden** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:34 am

dancing queen wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am
3) Giving Russia the tactical flexibility to do something else with Army Warsaw is _almost always_ good for you - they can open North! They can focus on Turkey! They can harass Germany!

This is an awesome point.

by **ziran** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:31 am

coincidentally, i rewatched that video recently. another thing that strikes me (and you explicitly point this out) is the way in which peter (as austria) tells andrew (as russia), that vienna always goes to trieste. he says it in such a way that you immediately know that it's true. he negotiates a DMZ in galicia and warsaw holds, and vienna ends up bouncing venice out of trieste. it is unfortunate that peter's negotiations with chris (as italy) are unavailable for that phase.

the fact that warsaw holds is particularly impressive since i consider that a pretty weak move. ya'll may disagree though.

by **dancing queen** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am

GarlMargs wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:28 pm
Anything besides Vie to Gal seems like suicide to me.

Going to Trieste might just be the dumbest though. If you don't trust Italy not to walk in to Venice, you have no business moving to Albania in the first place. At least the others have something unorthodox going for them (ex: a chance for three builds, an attack on Munich, etc). They're all inferior to the move to Gal IMO, but I can at least understand why they are used.

I'm a long-time Austria specialist, and I thought like this until very recently. You may know Peter Yeargin from the WDC2016 videos - he played Austria there, and *spoiler* didn't win, but he did make the top board on the back of (IIRC) a 15-center Austrian board top, and he was confident enough about it to pick Austria early. Peter and I had a long talk about why he doesn't like opening to Galicia. Some of this may be specific to him and his reputation (which helps me too, and maybe isn't relevant to anonymous games) but his theory is as follows:

1) The main thing to do as Austria is not die.
2) The fastest way to die as Austria is to let Italy run in on you.
3) Giving Russia the tactical flexibility to do something else with Army Warsaw is _almost always_ good for you - they can open North! They can focus on Turkey! They can harass Germany!
3b) When Russia goes to Galicia Anyway, _at least you know_.

I could go on, but I've certainly added this move to my repertoire. Prez talks about the metagame where you have to bounce Galicia and Italy won't run in on you, and its very real. But thinking out of the box is what can break a game wide open, and as Austria, you don't want to be the one who it gets broken on.

by **GarlMargs** » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:28 pm

Anything besides Vie to Gal seems like suicide to me.

Going to Trieste might just be the dumbest though. If you don't trust Italy not to walk in to Venice, you have no business moving to Albania in the first place. At least the others have something unorthodox going for them (ex: a chance for three builds, an attack on Munich, etc). They're all inferior to the move to Gal IMO, but I can at least understand why they are used.

by **swordsman3003** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:12 pm

President Eden, reading your posts is like reading stuff I wrote myself. I couldn't agree more. I wish I could give you more +1s.

[Poll] Balkan Gambit

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