M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[sweetandcool]

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

My understanding is that their logic essentially boils down to: Why not?

And we actually addressed why there is no pressing reason to claim now, but oh well.

[Ezio]

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

There's a significant reason for it: people can't waste time talking about the setup and viability of claiming vs not anymore.

[brainbomb]

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

This is the type of self loathing whiney stuff ghug usually policy votes for because he cant stand stuff like this.

or maybe that durga im thinking of.

its hard to keep track of durga and ghug's meta sometimes. they tend to almost seem...in l-

okay im jk ghug.

whats your opinion on my RHK-Hamilton connections

[aarodactyl]

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

[sweetandcool]

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

This is the type of self loathing whiney stuff ghug usually policy votes for because he cant stand stuff like this.

or maybe that durga im thinking of.

its hard to keep track of durga and ghug's meta sometimes. they tend to almost seem...in l-

okay im jk ghug.

whats your opinion on my RHK-Hamilton connections

You are asking for my opinion?

I kind of agree with the whiney stuff being annoying, but I'm allowing myself this one indulgence.

[brainbomb]

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

I agree chaqa is scum, and will vote him if that option presents itself. and I think Hamilton is scum with chaqa

[Chaqa]

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

Do you even know how condescending you come off

[Kakarroto]

"Jo mai," he began to say "I bin wiaglich so froa dos I hia bin." smiling and waved to the crowd. "Daham in Wean san de Leit ned hoibald so laud, wissans? I bin so froa des I sea olle glott umoaman ded." He waved another time towards the crowd while smiling. "Owa des ded mai liabe Sissi ned zualossn, wissns, sie is a goanz liabe. I wissad ned, wos I ohne se dadat."

After a short period where translations happened, the host began again to speak. "Of course, I'm sure everyone here welcomes you with open arms, since everyone will love to watch you dance here to the music. But I've asked myself; why would someone from Vienna come here and be part of this whole journey?" He smiled and waved towards the crowd again as he answered. "Jo, des is gonz afoch: des hia is a wundavois Schiffal und I kon ma nix bessas vuistöhn ois bei da eastn foat dabeizusei. I hob scho imma de majestätischn Schiffal vo Ihra Majestät gean ghobt, vo dem hea is es ka Wunda, dos I hia bin und mitfoa. Oiso, I hoff ea wiad no gonz long lebn."

What fucking language is this gibberish written in?

It looks like German but it is not proper German at all.

As I said, it is Mundart (dialect or slang). I thought this time I make it a little bit harder than just put words into google translate

[aarodactyl]

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

There's a significant reason for it: people can't waste time talking about the setup and viability of claiming vs not anymore.

That’s a bad reason. Not claiming costs nothing and if we stop taking about it until someone has an actual good reason to claim, it doesn’t take up space.

This game is going to rapidly develop into having basically no asymmetric information (beyond scum knowing each other) and that’s a disservice to the few of us in this game that care about the setup.

[brainbomb]

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

This is the type of self loathing whiney stuff ghug usually policy votes for because he cant stand stuff like this.

or maybe that durga im thinking of.

its hard to keep track of durga and ghug's meta sometimes. they tend to almost seem...in l-

okay im jk ghug.

whats your opinion on my RHK-Hamilton connections

You are asking for my opinion?

I kind of agree with the whiney stuff being annoying, but I'm allowing myself this one indulgence.

I was aiming to get ghugs opinion actually but I wasnt trying to say you are a whiner. I just know when I used to make posts like this I got voted out a ton as town, because it annoys people. and they think emotional appeals are always from scum for some reason.

[aarodactyl]

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

Do you even know how condescending you come off

Yeah. A tad. I can tone it down if you’d like though. The reason for it wasn’t the partner claiming. It was something else you said that I skimmed over.

[brainbomb]

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

[aarodactyl]

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

[brainbomb]

I love ezio's posts. I hate ezios votes.

[brainbomb]

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

okay so you scumlean ezio for claiming?

[aarodactyl]

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

okay so you scumlean ezio for claiming?

Sure. But also I don’t think I’ve ever played with them and I have no idea what their style is usually like.

I need to get some urgent stuff done at work, but I think it would useful for someone to see who restarted the claiming talk. I feel like it was worcej, Jamie, chaqa, and Ezio. But I may be missing someone.

[damo666]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

[Ezio]

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claWimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

There's a significant reason for it: people can't waste time talking about the setup and viability of claiming vs not anymore.

That’s a bad reason. Not claiming costs nothing and if we stop taking about it until someone has an actual good reason to claim, it doesn’t take up space.

This game is going to rapidly develop into having basically no asymmetric information (beyond scum knowing each other) and that’s a disservice to the few of us in this game that care about the setup.

We're gonna win this game by talking and scumhunting, not by mechanical advantage. There are no pr's to leverage or anything. To scumhunt, we need real conversations. Stop whining about mechanics and start saying real shit.

[Kakarroto]

[...]
At the time, that was literally my PoE, plus Kak's unknown partner[...]

Please, call her Sissi.

And currently I think Sissi is a good townlean.

[Ezio]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

I have a simpler way to think about it. 3/11 town are currently paired with mafia. If you are town, you fit into that category and so those are your odds.