M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[ghug]

Mafia cannot be paired together

Ergo each mafia we kill is a clear town

This is why I suggested (in sign up) that a Mass Claim was a good idea for town.

However various people including Ghug have shot a massclaim down.

Thoughts?

Ghug is notoriously smoothbrain at mechs.

Lol

[brainbomb]

ezio is still a dodgy little worm isnt he

[ghug]

Ask me questions, biatch

Who is your partner?

If you agree with me - just force the hand of the anti-claimants.

Sweetandcool is my dance partner.

Oh Jesus Christ.

Do you really think there's any world where worcej is more likely to be right about this than the group of intelligent people arguing against it?

[ghug]

Well this game just got boring, thanks everyone.

What was it you were attempting to conceal?

I was trying to conceal partners D1 because that's the town play. There is a reason why the setup included anonymity but we've decided to crap all over that. I can't help but think 1-2 Mafia were involved in this push.

Maybe Jamie, but everyone else seems town motivated to me.

[ghug]

Ghug, would you rather vote for Vecna, or Damo?

Damo's null. Vecna's a scumlean.

[ghug]

it isnt a gradient. its the people from my original townleans who I think deserve to stay there for a myriad of reasons.

I dont see those people as scum here. call it Hard Town

I thought you couldn't read Rd.

I cant. but trying anyway
do you have a diff opinion on him?

He's a big old nothing.

[Jamiet99uk]

Who is your partner?

If you agree with me - just force the hand of the anti-claimants.

Sweetandcool is my dance partner.

Oh Jesus Christ.

Do you really think there's any world where worcej is more likely to be right about this than the group of intelligent people arguing against it?

The group of people in favour was me, Worcej, Chaqa.

You know, the people who won the game for town last time (with Bozo).

[Jamiet99uk]

Ghug, would you rather vote for Vecna, or Damo?

Damo's null. Vecna's a scumlean.

Then join me in sending Vecna to look for that missing submersible.

[ghug]

Sweetandcool is my dance partner.

Oh Jesus Christ.

Do you really think there's any world where worcej is more likely to be right about this than the group of intelligent people arguing against it?

The group of people in favour was me, Worcej, Chaqa.

You know, the people who won the game for town last time (with Bozo).

Worcej died day one.

Winning a Mafia game and analyzing novel mechanics are different skills.

[sweetandcool]

Sweetandcool is my dance partner.

Oh Jesus Christ.

Do you really think there's any world where worcej is more likely to be right about this than the group of intelligent people arguing against it?

The group of people in favour was me, Worcej, Chaqa.

You know, the people who won the game for town last time (with Bozo).

Solid logic. You all won town last game, so consequently you are immune from being Mafia this game.

Alright everybody, lets sit back and let the big boys win the game as they always do.

[ghug]

Ghug, would you rather vote for Vecna, or Damo?

Damo's null. Vecna's a scumlean.

Then join me in sending Vecna to look for that missing submersible.

I'd rather you or Chaqa or aaro right now. Maybe also Kak.

[ghug]

As far as town goes, sweet is irking me but he's been known to do that and I think he's just driven by the mechanics. Plus the frustration about N0 not being in the setup feels real. Worcej feels very townie. Brain feels good. Brian doesn't seem nervous or exceptionally careful with his words, so I'll put him in that bucket for now too.

I'm also less inclined to kill null Ezio or scummy Vecna today because I've missed them.

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh Jesus Christ.

Do you really think there's any world where worcej is more likely to be right about this than the group of intelligent people arguing against it?

The group of people in favour was me, Worcej, Chaqa.

You know, the people who won the game for town last time (with Bozo).

Solid logic. You all won town last game, so consequently you are immune from being Mafia this game.

Alright everybody, lets sit back and let the big boys win the game as they always do.

Incorrect logic.

Ghug wasn't saying those people were scum, he was saying they are stupid.

[Chaqa]

Anyone can be townleader in a setup like this. but I usually play better when there is a more stoic player who stands in the firing line, who I can bounce ideas off of. Someone like Eden for example who is invested in peoples opinions and knows how to ask the right questions.

If you put me out in the front line and expect me to hold up for a full 48 hour day 1 as the focused and competant townleader you will ultimately lose momentum because I am not mentally built for that position. I change my mind too often to be followed, and my style is not great for clinging to a truth and forcing others to have to navigate around me. I am not an immovable object, I am actually very malleable and can change on a dime. You cant let someone like me direct town because I cant even direct myself most games.

I nominate worcej as town leader

You know this is a terrible idea.

It's a fun idea.

[Chaqa]

Oh Jesus Christ.

Do you really think there's any world where worcej is more likely to be right about this than the group of intelligent people arguing against it?

The group of people in favour was me, Worcej, Chaqa.

You know, the people who won the game for town last time (with Bozo).

Solid logic. You all won town last game, so consequently you are immune from being Mafia this game.

Alright everybody, lets sit back and let the big boys win the game as they always do.

Thank you for understanding!

We are a repeat towncore

[Ezio]

As far as town goes, sweet is irking me but he's been known to do that and I think he's just driven by the mechanics. Plus the frustration about N0 not being in the setup feels real. Worcej feels very townie. Brain feels good. Brian doesn't seem nervous or exceptionally careful with his words, so I'll put him in that bucket for now too.

I'm also less inclined to kill null Ezio or scummy Vecna today because I've missed them.

I've missed you too

[Chaqa]

As far as town goes, sweet is irking me but he's been known to do that and I think he's just driven by the mechanics. Plus the frustration about N0 not being in the setup feels real. Worcej feels very townie. Brain feels good. Brian doesn't seem nervous or exceptionally careful with his words, so I'll put him in that bucket for now too.

I'm also less inclined to kill null Ezio or scummy Vecna today because I've missed them.

Agree with that.

[aarodactyl]

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

[sweetandcool]

The group of people in favour was me, Worcej, Chaqa.

You know, the people who won the game for town last time (with Bozo).

Solid logic. You all won town last game, so consequently you are immune from being Mafia this game.

Alright everybody, lets sit back and let the big boys win the game as they always do.

Incorrect logic.

Ghug wasn't saying those people were scum, he was saying they are stupid.

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

[Kakarroto]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?