I think your imagery is a bit off Octavious - of course the chances that some catastrophe will come to earth that makes it unliveable and not the moon are remote, though still possible one must admit (asteroid impact, supervolcano, various radiation events I'm admittedly not super-familiar with), but that's not the real point.
The real point is that in the effort to create a sustainable moon colony we would learn how to do it elsewhere, basically on Mars and beyond. That's really important. If you want to compare these voyages to Columbus (admittedly tenuous but perhaps the closest parallel there is), Apollo was just the discovery voyage, what is needed now is colonization - the methodology must be developed.
Anyway, the real reason that I am alluding to is a tiny bit more complicated but every bit as important, and more. Our economy is based on growth, and yet we live on a finite world. It is not hard to see how, if we get unlucky and are still only earth, the economy will hit a brick wall and the society will more or less break down. You may say you favor stable-state economics, fine, but good luck making that a reality. That's not going to happen.
In a similar realist vein, we are destroying our environment with no sign of great change in behavior on the horizon - the likelihood that we will make earth a very difficult place to live is ever increasing - but if we developed a stable moon colony, many of the environmental pressures we currently exert on earth could be diverted to space - mining for instance would be pioneered in space in the same age.
In short for the society that has been built to keep from collapsing, it needs to grow, and sooner rather than later. Again, you may dislike the growth-based, consumption based society we have, I'm no fan either, but I understand that there is really no sense in trying to change it, or at least, not without a plan B (outer space expansion). Combine that with the other extinction threats (disease is one that is rather credible), and it becomes imperative. The longer we wait without it, the riskier.
The tl;dr is that the moon and other points in outer space need to be entered into our economy.