S02: There's that F BER and A STP I talked about to fight for NOR/SWE. Russia gets to NOR before BER can threated SWE. Germany can't do a DEN-SKA-KIE-DEN bluff because while he would then gain SWE in teh fall with a triple attack, and possible NOR after that next year, the NOR build evens it out three-to-three if Russia builds top, and he has to worry about France. Standard play by Italian Bohemian Crusher. Anti-Russia play by Turkey to keep things interesting! We'll see how it goes.

A02: Nice block in Baltic, it would have given R both NOR and SWE if DEN-SWE wasn't followed up with KIE-DEN; I totally would have fallen for it too! Props to Russia for that. NMR by Turkey makes me sad, because Russia just make an anti-T gambit of leaving SEV open and putting the F SEV-RUM....I'd bet a dollar bill he made that order IFF he say Turkey was going to NMR. No harm in that I've done it before too. Italy of course destroying Austria. France going full anti-G/E, which is the obvious and strong choice as well. CD's and to a lesser extent NMR's ruin games people. Don't sign up for live games you can't or won't play. Don't make live games with more than 20 minute sign up time.

W02: Russia getting both NOR AND SWE. Good moves by Russia, of course Germany mostly gave up that fight but the NOR-SWE; SWE-SKA move is looming over Denmark. Turkey has gotten back to the keyboard and has kept up his anti-Russian campagin and picked up Serbia. Turkey being a real contender and if it weren't for that silly English CD I'd probably put him in 1st by a mile (as France wouldn't be as strong a contender and Russia wouldn't have NOR, possibly not SWE). Germany has given up the fight against Russia in exchange for finally getting that army on the English isle (I told you whoever tried to do that would be risking their centers because two units is non-trivial right now). And due to how English centers are situated, Germany can't get two in one turn either. It'll only give him one center at most this year and that's not a lot when Russia and France are both baring down on you. Tough decisions by Germany. If Russia eliminates Germany for trying to stop the France-invasion of England then I hope France solos and Russia learns his lesson. I'm not saying Russia can't attack Germany so much as the general rule that if you attack the person holding back the leader, don't cry to me when the leader solos later. Of course some people play for the draw and just think they'll shore up the stalemate line later; it makes it hard to do honorable or strategic play when there are people like that.

S03: Yep a northern build for Russia spells super danger for Germany and a Warsaw build seals the deal. Russia furiously trying to signal "JUGG!!" but Turkey having none of it interestingly enough.

A03: Goes for the second unit on England's mainland by Germany! It's not gonna work; yes, I lied last time when I said there was no way to get two centers because I omitted if you convoyed a second unit, but I didn't seriously consider it. France is going to get either HOL or KIE or possibly both and with SIL by R Germany now is just straight up doomed. Maybe he can eke out an existence on the English Isle with three armies but unlikely and certainly not satisfying. This is his punishment for trying to hold back the leader with a greedy player in a gunboat. I salute you Germany, sorry it had to be this way. In the south fairly standard stuff as Turkey continues his crusade, refusing to help Austria or Italy bu tjust letting that play out. Surely he knows eventually Italy will win and he'll have to hope Italy doesn't get enough fleets off of it to box him in. It's possible he's banking on Italy getting greedy for France's undefended underbelly, or he's hoping to get all his SC through Russia. That fleet at BUL instead of an army hurting his cause, he needs to swap those ASAP.

W03: Germany...WHat was that RUHR play!?! You couldn't possibly think that France would give you that LYP SC, and even if he does you don't get builds, so that RUHR move can't possibly be setting up future builds to kick France out. The only guess I hve is you're trying to get France to draw by (1) wiping out England ASAP (in case France doesn't realize that a resigned player doesn't get a portion of the draw) and (2) not fighting back too much....but the fact that the only people not clicking draw are France and Turkey (the two who are TREMENDOUSLY AHEAD; and France who got the most out of the NMR and Russia's greed) mean that I highly doubt you're going to appeal to their honor successfully. Italy of course continues and is successful in his war on Austria, and Turkey is still hellbent and successful on his land war of Russia. Interestingly, he does realize he needs to swap his units, but Austria temporarily gets SER. Oh well, with a power of two, Austria would have gotten it anyways even if Turkey was more patient with the swap. Turkey can easily get it back as BUD won't be around to support it for long.

S04: Germany misses a phase, honest prediction is that he left in disgust of what is happening and to be honest I don't particularly blame him. It would be fair but annoying when France and Russia combo up and eliminate you, but to be eliminated by Russia and France because England wasn't around to slow down either of them is just frustrating and not part of the game design. I don't hold it against him and frankly even if he submitted moves it wouldn't change anything from now on. Russia has to cover MOS and thus will probably lose RUM, although T may decide to attack SER first. France with the A MAR build to signal friendship to Italy, I hope Italy doesn't take it. It's next to impossible for Russia to hold back Turkey now. GAL/UKR/SEV automatically overcomes MOS/WAR, and even MOS/WAR/LIV is eventually overcome because EVERY SINGLE TURN Russia must correctly predict whether MOS or WAR will be attacked with strength two and of course eventually he will fail. It's up to Italy to reign in both Turkey and France...and that's too much for one country, especially on opposite sides of the map. At the point, it's looking like a two way draw or solo between F and T.

A04: Bit greedy by T. I don't like the amount of gambles he made. Secure RUM. ARM useless right now until you can get it to SEV. Austria making his pitiful moves back but it's not going to happen unless Turkey wills it. France senses both the Germany NMR and the Italian fleets and moves to MAO in resposne. Russia threatening both BEL and HOL and KIE but he'll probably go for low hanging EDI fruit and France should move HOL-KIE, KIE_BER, MUN hold or support anyway. EC-NTH would be really good as NTH is essential to control and totes worth HOL if he goes for it (PIC can cover BEL). While things have gotten more complicated, I'm not writing as much, simply because movements are now much larger in scope and flow as there are only (effectively) 5 players.

W04: Correctly predicted all of Frances moves except for the MAO hold; He's REALLY big into offering friendship to Italy for some reason. Turkey continues this fascination with not owning Rumania. I'm telling you man, SEV-RUM with double support and ARM-SEV is better. Oh well. Same overall analysis as above except France is making the correct moves and Turkey is not.

S05: Let's talk winning. France needs 18 SC. He has 11 SC. All of France, Iberia, England, Germany, Scandinavia and STP (which cannot be defended from below against a western/northern naval power) is 17. This defines the most common stalemate line. To win France needs TUN, VEN, VIE, or WAR. With the shit ton of Armies currently occupying Germany that France owns, he can easily get WAR I believe. Look for him to keep moving those units East a bit even though it may spook the other countries to FINALLY do something about him (poor Germany may he Rest In Peace). It's clear Italy isn't particularly keen on the truce with France, so watch for BRE-MAO, MAO-SPA(sc), MAR s MAO-SPA.

A05: Yep there's the prussia move. Surprised it isn't even more but he may be trying to slow play it. Italy correctly didn't attack SPAIN, and should have gotten shut out but BRE moved EC instead of MAO?! Dear France: Taking out the rest of English Isles with LON-YOR is no worth leaving MAO exposed!! That's going to be a shit load of trouble as it's near impossible to cover all the SC, much less ever force a disband of that fleet. Not sure what France was thinking. Even if he knew Russia could get NTH and wanted to defend against that, I still feel that's so much better than a fleet in MAO. BEL/HOL are easily defended with armies, etc. BRE-MAO, WAL-LON, LON-EC is the more patient and I feel much better choice. France may just have too few fleets here which is a very real problem and it's going to be biting him here as he can't make fains on NOR/SWE any time soon which forces him to wage an uncertain land war. Austria finally giving up it looks like and getting eaten. Not sure how Turkey plans on defending both SER and GRE when I has 1.5 strength on both. Beginning to look like 4 way tie now, although France and Turkey aren't the kind who draw for funsies.
Retreat: Would have preferred to see a LON or HELIO retreat, but I suppose this works and allows NWG-NAO if he wants to try to capture and disband that Italian fleet

W05: France in full defensive mode with almost every unit heading to a home SC. While it defends against Italy, it doesn't fare as well against Russia. However that LIV army threatening STP has to have Russia sweating bullets; luckily Russia can stop pretending to protect RUM OR SEV at this point; while STP can be regained by NOR and MOS attacking with two strength, an attack on MOS by T, or LIV not moving till Autumn, means that it's just too risky IMO. It may lead to Russia's doom to giv up RUM/SEV front, but I think he's just as or more doomed if he lets LIV into STP. I've already explained how Russia can't defend against a Turkey that has GAL/UKR/SEV, but I don't think it follows he should give up STP for it; in addition Italy has shown he cares more about Turkey than France so Russia should hope for some respite there. Tyrolia move by France is a bit too little too late as A VEN build will defend against it well and especially if Italy and Turkey find some kind of southern truce/stalemate, Italy can make great pushes on former Germany territory.

S05: Went by too quickly for me too see. Almost exactly what I predicted though and par for course.

A05: France trying to get that last English SC at all costs. Russia continuing his attack on England but it'll be for naught I think. BEL-HOL; BUR-BEL with EC support and LON-NTH only gives Russia an out in HOL-KIE; DEN s HOL-KIE, but even then that just equalizes and pushes Russia back; if he goes for EDI with NTH he gives NTH to France which in the long term results int a straight up loss. Although he may do it just to get the army build in STP, but again in the long term he's screwed at NOR/SWE. TYR will retreat back to MUN and KIE will retreat to BER and he'll just have them support hold each other for days and not much Russia can do about that; if Italy moves TYR_BOH; TRI-TYR that'll be a real threat but not foolproof. Italy to West Med defensively as France makes the MAR-PIE attack. The pick up in GRE is nice because there's no retreat opportunities so little retaliation to worry about. Turkey still playing this weird super defensive game.

GAME DRAWN

For the record, I am strictly of the mindset that CD's should be drawn out ASAP [in NO MESSAGING live play at the very least] and look down severely on players who try to abuse them for advantages.

I should note that it says "EOG" but it's actually all Stream Of Consciousness as I was watching it; all analysis and writing was live as if I was playing myself.

unfortunately not enough mentioned about how awesome Italy would've done if it wasn't drawn. oh well interesting thread Val

Italy played a very good game from a very tough position; he deserves praise!

Thanks lamda.