Is 2WL a professor? He hasn't give us much insight lately, if he is.

He said up front he would contribute when he could but could not commit to commenting every phase.

He's a guest professor whenever he can. He's busy most of the time though right now.

I haven't given much insight because I completely lack insight.

But...since you asked, here are a few thoughts. I'll try to be more diligent in posting, but I have a new job plus admin duties so its easy to forget about my guest professorship.

Yaleunc was spot on with his analysis of the English MAO fleet. I wouldn't have recommended a move to WMed, because the MAO is key right now to English security, but hitting Spain would at least keep Italy honest in his movement.

I'm rather a fan of Turkey's position right now. Yes, he's all on his own, and I realize that he's likely not going to get any bigger without a stab from Austria or Italy on each other, but A/I is running into the classic Turkish defense. This is going to be a major headache for both of them, even with three Italian fleets to the Turkish two. Even that single Russian unit is causing problems for Italy. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Turkey survive this game, if not be part of a draw.

bump. Waiting on G/A for moves

To the tournament organiser: I'm currently having difficulty making contact with my TA. I think he has been moving house and has no internet. I'm not complaining (these things happen!) but wanted to make you aware. I don't know if you maybe want to see if it would be prudent to seek an experienced replacement TA or whether I should just do my best from here, working on the professors advice for help.

* I will not confirm whether I am one of the powers yet to enter orders, btw, for the sake of anonymity.

I'll contact him.

plot twist: Jamiet99uk is the tournament organiser

Blump

Autumn 1905:

England - I won't venture so far to say that this was a disappointing phase for you, but I think it could have been done a little bit better. Taking Holland from the Heligoland Bight as opposed to the North Sea means that Kiel is now out of the question at least for right now and moving Norwegian to Norway instead of following into the North Sea means that Denmark may fall as well without some luck, and Holland could be tough to keep. If Russia went for Norway, damn, tough, but 99% of the time, he's going for Moscow if it's there. On top of that, it would not have been a bad idea to double-tap the Baltic Sea with both Denmark and Sweden, since you knew that no matter which one he tried to take, the supporting unit would be the Baltic Sea and the attacking unit would be either Kiel of the GoB. I also see little reason for you to continue possessing the MAO when that unit would be more useful against Germany. Regardless, you aren't in a terrible spot, and with a good spring phase, you may be able to rebound, but this was your shot to get an army build to plant on the mainland and it didn't happen.

France - 12 were lost and 34 were wounded by a strange and unsupported British attack on Portugal. Neither side held an advantage and the forces clashed for a short period before retreating to their respective bases in an apparent ceasefire as the winter months, which apparently now affect warfare in warm-weathered Portugal, set in.

P.S. - For what it's worth, I would highly recommend tapping either Spain or the MAO as opposed to holding. If England leaves the MAO and Italy moves in and follows into Spain, you are done. Of course, if England leaves the MAO and Italy doesn't move in, Portugal is now vulnerable, so it's a calculated risk. I know which I would choose out of those two, but it's up to you to decide. I won't comment on it one way or another.

Germany - Pretty good. You didn't make any spectacular moves but you got the help you'd been waiting on. Part of this game is to hold your ground until your opponent errs, and he may have done that here. You're not building, but in all likelihood, you will be next year, and as long as England continues to hesitate in using his full array of forces against you, you should be able to continue taking advantage of his self-imposed weakness. You're a favorite on the board right now.

Russia - It was worth a shot. At least you can rest easy knowing that the other option, Norway, would have resulted in a bounce as well. Maybe give it another go in the spring.

Turkey - Given the circumstances (both in-game and outside), these are solid moves. You lose Rumania, but you gained Sevastopol back, and on top of that you were able to forward your line into Serbia, which almost ensures that you take Rumania back in the spring. On top of that, you screwed with Italy in the Med just enough that he's not going to be threat to you next year since, instead of retaking the Ionian, he has to spend the spring phase figuring out how to keep you from moving forward. You have a retreat, presumably to Bulgaria (Galicia might be strangely tempting but in the grander scheme of things it'd be useless unless you have an odd craving for Ukraine), and you should be able to push forward a little bit more as Austria decides who he hates more right now between you and Italy.

Italy - Unfortunately, Turkey pulled a brilliant trick on you and leaves you in a tight spot, and if he guesses your moves again, he can pull another trick on you in the spring and leave you just as frustrated. Still, the move to the Adriatic was wise, as it leaves you pretty solidly defended against a Turkish move on Trieste and allows you an aggressive enough position to try to take it back. Hopefully Austria doesn't have it out for you, but if he does, you might be in a bit of a time crunch to refortify and prepare for Turkey.

P.S. - Some unqualified advice: don't forget about Apulia!

Austria - It's time to have your psychotic meltdown. The Habsburgs always had a way of going crazy near the end of their respective reigns, so why not? On one hand, Turkey's resurgence has prevented the CPA from dominating this game. On the other, Italy's aggressive play left you without the strength to keep fighting Turkey. Whose fault is it? The bottom line is that you may survive, but it'll be in Moscow and Warsaw if you do, so why not use your other three units to make a statement?

Rankings as of retreats/builds (none) 1905:

1.) Turkey - Always a solo threat, but there is a long way to go before that's even in our discussion.
2.) Germany - Like Turkey, always a solo threat, and also a very viable candidate for a 17/17 draw with Turkey were it to come down to that. I wonder if you can pull it off or if you'll have to settle with a three-player finish.
3.) England - So long as you have your home centers, you're in decent shape.
4.) Italy - Growth in the west is a big plus, but Turkish presence in your home seas could soon cancel it out.
5.) Austria - Holding Moscow and Warsaw means you control who can go for 18.
6.) France - Take Christmas break to restock and march in some reserves.
7.) Russia - Trotsky would be proud.

Thoughts on Fall 05

Austria - about as well as you could do after failing to force Turkey's Sev army to disband in the Spring. The good news is no disband coming, but also no build. The bad news is Italy has re-engaged with you and you are now spread out and facing two foes, both of whom are stronger than you. It doesn't help that Russia keeps banging Mos either. Your best chance is if Italy and Turkey turn their attentions more towards each other due to the naval conflict, but that seems unlikely to happen on land given where all the armies are.

England - I just don't get what your overall strategy is. You have six units but you are not using them cohesively at all. Two years ago you were in a good spot and just needed to re-position to take advantage but that re-positioning still has not occurred. Now Germany has a much stronger position than you and you will need to work hard to not lose any ground next year. I think you are also still paying the price for not grabbing the practically free StP back when it was yours for the taking. The threat of StP-Nor seems to have been the driver behind your NAO to NWG to Nor moves this past year and that unit could have been doing more productive things otherwise. Make sure you are thinking about what the board will look like at least a few moves from now and try to position yourself to take advantage. A lot of your moves this game seem to not factor in the long term. Also your fleet is wasted in MAO in my opinion, especially this last turn where Italy was not in Spain or WMed. Italy is too busy fighting Turkey with his fleets to charge into MAO. And if he does you can easily turn your attention and repel him and then go after his centers. English Channel would be a much more productive spot for your fleet, though at this point it may be too late.

France - should be safe for at least another year. I don't understand the English attack on Por at all. Such a low chance that works, it requires you to move to Spain and Italy to not defend Spain with even one unit. On the flip side, maybe it costs him goodwill with you and you eventually throw things Italy's way instead of his.

Germany - extremely competent moves, basically the opposite of what England did this past year. At the start of the year he had the advantage but you were both a bit out of position. You have definitely rectified that and are now poised to net a center next year if you play your cards right, maybe even two if England plays poorly next year. Your units are working together forming a solid front and giving you multiple options for offense and defense. Best performance this year, now you need to build on it next year.

Italy - this turn went about as I expected. To me it looks like Turkey is better poised to take advantage of Austria than you are, especially since his fleets can mess with you at little cost to him whereas you really need your fleets to be doing other things as you don't have enough armies in place to advance. Hold the line and try to find a build somewhere next year, you really need an additional unit to get to the next level given the current board setup. Depending on what Austria does with Tri and Bud next year it may be tough for you to just stay even. You have a lot of territory to defend and you are spread a little thin to do it. Apulia, Tunis, Tyrrhenian, all three of those spots are bad for you under Turkish control and it will be tough to cover all three.

Russia - You stayed alive another year, but your days still look numbered. Maybe Turkey will support you into Mos, though England may go after StP since he will be in Fin and Nor after the retreat.

Turkey - no builds coming, but you did accomplish the goal of improving your position this year and it should pay dividends next year. Italy fighting Austria again also a very positive development for you. You've got the Italian fleets out of position by supporting Tun to Tyrr, now you need to guess well to get into tun, Tyrr, nap, or Apu in the Spring and the do some damage in the fall.

Rankings at end of Year 5 by tiers
Solo threats - Germany, Turkey
Strong but spread too thin - Italy, England
Alive but surrounded by enemies - Austria
Terminal - France, Russia

Thoughts on Bo's commentary

England couldn't double tap the Baltic as his unit in Sweden was an army. Other than that I agree in general though I think I am a little more down on England than you are.

Woops, you're right. Exclude that bit. Denmark still should have cut though.

No builds, spring now.

Thank God. No winter. I can stay warm.

Bump because I am waiting to find out if I'm getting a replacement TA.

I had to enter my orders in the last phase without any guidance from my TA. That's fine, as I'm happy with the orders I entered, except that it kinda feel like I'm fighting solo when everyone else has a two-man team.

brah i feel you

Bo/2WL, you guys getting him a replacement TA? I can give him advice in the interim if you don't have one lined up, though I'll have to be careful to not give anything away with my commentary or try to influence anyone else's moves. So best if you can get him an actual replacement TA.

Yeah, we are. I'll PM you.

Hey Falco, get your orders in.

Gonnae no identify which player is which power? Just, gonnae no?

Sure. Austria is being played by Al Calhamer.

If you need help here at all feel free to let me know - I don't have much time to commit but can cover a period if needed.

Falco is not an actual player, he's an Austrian singer from the 80s.

Lando, we're all set for TAs, but if you want to comment in a professor role, feel free.

BUMP for phase change

Spring 06

Austria - Took Mos and should now be able to control War and Mos for the rest of this year. Long term probably a different story as Turkish armies will likely be rolling northward. As for Tri and Bud, I would have preferred Tri- Vie with support from Bud which then likely lets you hold both of those in the fall while Turkey and Italy contest Tri. With the move to Tyr instead you have given up control of Tri for a shot at Vie or Ven, neither of which is guaranteed,though if Rum retreats to Gal then you can throw 3 units at Vie. Alternative is a retreat to Ukr which seems unlikely to be of much use this fall. Either way probably facing at least one disband at end of this year, will need to find a way to limit the losses to one unit and try to hold your ground next year.

England - much better than recent turns, got a fleet into Sweden and vacated MAO for the much more useful Channel. If Italy wants to come at you he is 3 moves from Liverpool so you'll have plenty of time to adjust/react if necessary. Big decision for the retreat phase is whether you go to Heligoland or Nth Sea. They offer different options for the fall so choose wisely.

France - a whole lot of nothing. No move, no retreat. Potential danger looms with England vacating MAO as Italy could now choose to surround you, though lucky for you he probably needs that fleet more against Turkey for now.

Germany - losing Swe and not getting Den in exchange hurts a bit. England now has superior position with the fleets given his control of Den and Swe with Ska backing them up. On the other hand Bel, Hol, Kie look well fortified for now. I would think about moving that unit in Par to a more useful spot as Bre is not currently threatened by multiple units whereas Mun is wide open and none of your armies are in range to defend it in the event of an attack. Only retreat option is GoB. If it were a fall retreat phase I would be tempted to disband that unit and build an army in Mun or Ber in its place, but since it is a Spring retreat I see no reason not to keep the unit for now.

Italy - the good news is you grabbed control of Tri, the bad news is it will be tough to hold all of Ven, Tri, and, Vie this fall. Pulling the fleet back from Spa to WMed probably wise as Turkey appears poised to expand quickly now that you and Austria are at odds once again. No retreats.

Russia - England spared you once again (could have used Nor+Fin to send you packing if he so desired). Looks like you'll be around at least one more year. No retreat.

Turkey - good turn for you. Only room for improvement would be if you had tried to get Ion behind Italy's defenses by attacking Tyrr or going after Apu to put pressure on Ven and Nap. But all in all things look good for you,marcum should be easy to hold and a decent chance you take Tri or Bud this year depending on what Austria and Italy do in terms of attacking each other or just defending. No retreat.

Several people asked me about it, so I will post a little commentary regarding the possibility of Tyr-Mun by Austria.

Pros - Guaranteed success as Germany can not defend against this move. Contrast with the likely but not unstoppable with lucky guesses by Italy taking of Vie. The threat if Tyr-Mun is a good reason why Par-Bur should probably have been made on the last turn by Germany. Or at the very least Hol taken from Bel rather than Ruhr.

Cons - Still looking at a disband since losing two centers (Rum and Tri) and gaining Mun. The difference is that Austria is taking a center from Germany instead of Italy or Turkey in this scenario which leaves Austria's opponents stronger than they would be if Tyr were instead used with Bud and Gal to take Vie from Italy. Taking Mun also spreads out Austria's forces and is unlikely to be held beyond the next turn.

So on balance, my take is that if Austria going for Mun this turn that probably maximizes short term gain (I.e. value at end of year 6), but trying to take Vie instead has higher risk and reward. If successful taking Vie is a much stronger play as Bud/Vie/War/Mos as a 4 unit power has a much better chance of survival against 15 units between Italy and Turkey than Mun/Bud/War/Mos against 16 units between those two. Now if Austria can somehow pull off taking both Vie and Mun (or some other center in addition to Mun such as grabbing Ser if Turkey attacks Tri from Ser successfully) then more power to him, but a competent Italy should not let that happen.

Spring 1906:

England - Another solid season. With Scandinavia essentially locked up, your options are growing. You should be able to lock up St. Petersburg next year and go from there. You still have to watch Germany's fleets, as three of them are in the Baltic, but if you can work out a way to disband one of them or even two, you will be in solid shape. He may have to disband one this year. As above, whether you retreat to Heligoland or the North Sea could indicate to everyone else what your future intentions are, so think it over.

France - Italy elected to pull a fleet back rather than try for a fleet build, and that works to your favor. Still, you're stuck, at least for now.

Germany - While your position in Scandinavia is essentially gone, you aren't defeated, nor are you necessarily done fighting England. He has loftier goals in mind than Sweden and Denmark, so you have to make sure that you still have the capacity to defend against him. The move to Holland was smart, but you will still in all likelihood have to disband this year unless Austria gives you a break. Paris to Burgundy would have been wise but in all honesty that fast break toward Munich isn't a move I saw coming either. Still, an idle unit would have been much more useful in your homeland than in a place like Paris, and now that Italy's moved down to Spain, there is no reason to keep it there.

Russia - You're alive for at least another year, but Austria is sticking in your home centers. Maybe a shot in the dark at Norway isn't such a bad idea.

Turkey - I'm a little confused as to why the Ionian simply attempted a support which was likely to be cut to Albania. It doesn't make much sense. That fleet could be in Apulia right now (or Tyrrhenian, but I would have guessed the former), which would have added yet another center Italy has to worry about defending. Well, technically, it would add two. Regardless, you have another build coming, and it's up to you where it goes, but I encourage you to give some thought to another army in the east. Either Sevastopol or Rumania need to move forward, and something has to stay behind. Because you have a line of armies pushing north, an army serves more use to you at this point there than the fleet in the Black Sea does, so maybe it's time to consider rearranging a little bit now that the Balkans are locked up by moving the Black Sea out as your third fleet. One way or another, you need another army and another fleet before you can grow too much further.

Italy - Austria's move north has finally put you in the inevitable spot that you've been anticipating for some time - a full out war with Turkey. Your armies are now clashing with his, and while you'll take the Ionian back this year (or next), he will probably be banging on the doorstep of Venice before long. You need to make sure that you're ready for that assault. At the same time, England is running out of room to grow in the northern Atlantic, so he may be thinking about a move south soon, and you have to be ready for that too. In my mind, while your empire takes up a large portion of the map, you are growing less and less powerful (by no fault of your own) as Turkey grows. This is exactly why I rarely endorse an Italian assault on Austria, but to each his own. We can talk about all of that after the game concludes.

Austria - I'm curious as to whether you'll choose to retreat to Ukraine and attempt to protect it for as long as you can or retreat to Galicia and continue attempting to spite Italy. Both options make sense. More importantly, though, Germany left you Munich, and if I were you, I would not let that opportunity pass. Your single unit there will cause Germany fits, and forcing Germany to disband may just entice England to protect you whenever he takes St. Petersburg instead of shooting for Moscow himself. At the same time, you could ensure that you take Vienna back, and you could also try to super-screw Italy by going for Venice. That would be gutsy, no doubt.