Spring 1908:

England - You continue to make your position against Germany that much stronger, and now the question is whether or not you can finish him in a timely fashion and move enough units toward Munich and Berlin to defend them from Turkey, who will undoubtedly make a move in that direction before too much more time passes. You also have an opportunity to move toward Iberia and potentially work closer toward your own solo campaign, though you are a long way away from that and Turkey is a lot closer than you. In brief, you should keep on putting armies on the mainland and hope that Italy can bother Turkey enough that you can safely eliminate Germany without risking the draw. If not, you should make a quick decision on your feet to keep Germany alive and hope that he receives your support with open arms as opposed to wreaking vengeance on you.

Germany - This is basically the opposite of England. You're being squeezed tighter and tighter every season, and there's really little you can do about it right now. You are fortunate to have drawn the nation you did, though, as Germany possesses two of the most important centers in the game in Munich and Berlin, and in all likelihood, any solo power is going to need to take at least one from you. That means that, as long as you possess those two centers, you are still a powerful nation and your actions could dictate the outcome of the game no matter how limited your empire is elsewhere.

Turkey - This was a little bit of a disappointing phase for you on the Italian front, but you made good ground elsewhere. The move on Galicia was wise as it opens the door for a move into German territory at any moment. You'll be able to put Rumania in Ukraine shortly enough and threaten Moscow and Warsaw, leaving Austria guessing as to what to protect. All in all, you'll end up in possession of those two Russian centers. As for the Italian front, you were hit pretty hard by a solid set of moves, and despite how much power you have in Austria, he still outnumbers your fleets. He'll continue to put up a fight against you until you can finally push him back from the north. Don't expect him to go down easily, and don't expect to solo without Tunis.

Italy - You and England had the best individual phases on the whole, but things still look pretty bleak for you. Trieste isn't going to hold unless you are somehow the beneficiary of good fortune, and even if it does, it won't remain yours for any significant period of time. Still, a build would be helpful, and if Turkey kicks your fleet out of Trieste this fall, it might be worth considering disbanding it and replacing it with an army so that you might protect Tyrolia for a little while longer. Hopefully England keeps away from you in Iberia and you can focus on holding the most heavily contested front in the game.

Austria - Unfortunately, it doesn't look that you'll be able to protect Warsaw and Moscow. You will likely lose them in the next year or two unless England provides another support, but he has other priorities right now. It's not impossible, though, and if you can stifle Turkey for as long as possible, maybe England will play your savior.

Comments on retreats

Austria - Silesia (over Bohemia). Main differences between Boh and Sil are that Boh could hit Turkish held Vie (helping Italy probably hold Tri) whereas Sil can support England into Ber. Either space could also attack Mun. So Sil basically helps Turkey for sure and possibly England whereas Boh possibly helps Italy and hurts Turkey. Kind of an odd choice given that Turkey is the country most likely to eliminate Austria at this point and England's unit in StP has no reason To stop supporting Austria in Mos (I.e. No need to curry favor with England).

Germany - Ruhr (over Picardy and Burgundy). This give Germany 4 units to potentially use against Kie or two against Hol. Neither of which is likely to be enough against all of the English units in the vicinity, especially with Austria retreating to Sil.

Bumping for next turn comments. Turkey and Italy have retreat choices.

Fall 09 comments

Austria - retook Gal, but now need to disband a unit anyway, so probably won't help enough. Only thing working in your favor right now is that neither England nor Turkey can afford for the other to get Mos and War. Presumably you keep Mos for sure which means disband is between Gal and War (though tough to leave War empty with Turkish units in Sev and Ukr).

England - Great year, well positioned, build coming. Your biggest problem right now will be deciding between building an army to convoy to France/Germany or a fleet to use to grab Iberian centers. Great problem to have. Can you beat Turkey to Tun and/or Mos? We may get to see.

Germany - I hope for your sake your last name is Balboa and right now you are just getting mad because England is beating you like Ivan Drago and Clubber Lang right now. Unfortunately I don't see you coming back in this one Rock. Your best chance is probably to hold onto Mun as long as possible and hope Turkey gets to the stalemate line before England finishes you off. Disband should be an easy decision at least since that fleet in Hel is surrounded anyway and probably gets force disbanded next year if you do keep it.

Italy - liberated Tun and couldn't hold Tri, both as expected. Or at least as expected once Austria chose not to retreat to Boh from Gal and hit Vie for you. No build coming, but at least no disband either. Going to be tough to hold those Iberian centers much longer, but you don't need them to finish in a draw so that may be okay. With Turkey and England both emerging as solo threats you will need to play things smart to make sure neither of them solos. Retreat options from Tri are Ven and Alb. Probably not a tough call.

Turkey - As mentioned above, Tri and Tun as expected. One build coming unless you choose to disband the fleet in Tun rather than retreat to NAfr, in which case you get two builds. But the fleet "behind enemy lines" probably more useful. Oops, just checked and it looks like retreat phase already happened and you did choose to disband. So two builds it is.

Rankings:
England - second in centers, but first in potential facing less resistance and easier gains than Turkey. Solo potential and should almost certainly be able to ensure at least a draw.

Turkey - still a chance at a solo, but draw seems more likely and you will need to be careful to not keep at Italy too long if/when England gets close to a solo.

Italy - as mentioned above, you are the key country in this one in terms of determining whether the game ends as a solo or a draw.

Austria - Germany has more centers (for now), but I think you are more likely to make it to a draw. No guarantee of that either though, wouldn't be surprised to see you eliminated a couple years from now.

Germany - still a chance you make it into a draw, but I think more likely England finishes you off before that happens.

Autumn 1908:

England - I don't think there is a better set of moves for you than these. The odds of acquiring Iberia without seriously angering Italy and potentially opening the door to a thrown solo in Turkey's direction are slim, whereas the opportunity to reduce the draw by eliminating Germany is much more realistic. You're not far away from doing that. Still, Turkey is likely a year or two at the most from threatening Munich and Berlin (as well as St. Petersburg and Scandinavia if you don't put a second unit up there). If this phase's moves are indicative at all, you're in solo prevention mode and ready to prepare for a final stand. Still, if you're at all interested in a solo bid of your own and are willing to race Turkey to Tunis and Munich, you have a build that could easily be used to acquire Iberian centers too.

Germany - You wisely moved to Paris. This is an important move for you and could make the difference between survival and death for you, and everyone in the game should closely look at why you moved there. Brest is lost, and that's that, so you move to Paris and are now in position to protect Berlin, Burgundy, and Ruhr for another year. Given how close Turkey is to breaking for his solo run in your home centers, everything you can do to stall is helpful.

Turkey - It's difficult to tell you to be more aggressive, but as things stand, your solo window is closing. Italy is doing a beautiful job at staving you off and England is progressing quickly against Germany. I'm also not entirely sure why you didn't keep your rogue fleet behind Italy's line unless you're trying to build more armies and solo through the land rather than the waters. If you're going to solo, you might have to get a little more aggressive, a little more gutsy, and know that that there is almost nothing short of dropping out of the game that could eliminate you from the draw at this point given the power structure. If not, you need to keep a close eye on England and make sure he doesn't get past you.

Italy - By neutralizing one of Turkey's fleets and kicking it out of Tunis, you put yourself in a better spot to defend. It's going to take a lot of guesswork, but so far you've been able to outguess him in almost every facet of your fight and have held him as effectively as possible. If you continue doing so, you'll have a chance at forcing a draw even if you have to retreat in order to do so. You also elected to disband your fleet in Trieste instead of retreating it, suggesting to me that you'll have an army in Venice this spring which can support Tyrolia for an extra year.

Austria - As before, whether you survive or not is largely up to England. Galicia is not going to be much help at all and you'll just be hanging out in Moscow and Warsaw for a little while.


Rankings:

Turkey - I still have you above England, though Yal has you in second and another slow year contrasted with quick English growth will probably put you behind him. Still solo potential.

England - Great moves so far, lots of options. Taking the right direction at this fork in the road determines whether you solo or play a 13-center second place power in an awkward looking draw.

Italy - No solo potential without some crazy unforeseen circumstance (Turkish CD, anyone?), but this game hinges on your moves. You may soon have to try to hold back both of the two largest powers.

Germany - You still have Munich and Berlin, so you're above Austria, but you're both shrinking fast.

Austria - Without England sacrificing his own solo aspirations to prop you up, you'll be eliminated in a few short years. Other than that, I don't see what chance you have.

I encourage everyone to take a look at the stalemate lines on this map and see where the solo powers need to reach in order to win.

Bump. Comment on builds comes later.

b u m b

Builds 1908:

England - It was wise to build an army. England needs as many armies as he can muster up. Fleet power is sometimes overrated, and this is one of those instances. Because of that build, you can almost assure yourself two builds this year (or one and advanced position against Munich - up to you) and you can assure that you will be very close to defeating Germany.

Germany - It was an obvious disband, and you can still stall England for a little while. Still, you have your work cut out for you to survive here.

Italy - I think this is really smart. Tyrolia will fall at some point, but this gives you a little bit longer to hang onto it. For those that didn't notice, Italy disbanded his fleet that got kicked out of Trieste and rebuilt an army in Venice, and while it leaves some vulnerabilities, it is a good temporary defense to the northern portion of his front, better than a fleet would be.

Turkey - I still don't understand disbanding Tunis. I understand the justification you sent me, but I'm just not sure that it was worth it. The Black Sea could have easily served as a third fleet on that end of the board. Either way, given the circumstances, your builds were both smart. Smyrna provides the third fleet in a naval line that you hope will grow to 4 or 5 in the coming years, and Constantinople will presumably join the line headed up toward Munich and into Italy.

Austria - Disbanding Galicia was the only reasonable move. Hopefully England keeps you alive awhile.

Build thoughts:

Austria - Gal seems like the obvious disband. Your best chances are 1) England continues to support you in Mos and 2) England makes quick work on Germany and beats Turkey to Tunis so that Turkey needs to help you hold Mos and/or War against England.

England - Army build is solid. Definitely taking Brest this year and likely Par or Ber as well.

Germany - least painful disband, need to find a way to limit your losses to just one center this year.

Italy - Disbanding fleet from Tri to rebuild as army in Ven a savvy play. On that part of the board an army is much more useful. You are well positioned to make it very difficult and time consuming for Turkey to take any more centers from you.

Turkey - my guess is that part of the concern that led to the disband of Tun rather than retreat to NAfr is that Italy could have dislodged that unit in the Spring and if England moved from the Channel to MAO in the spring there would be no retreat option. With England building an army it looks unlikely that he will move to MAO in the spring, in which case probably better off in NAfr than Smyrna, but you are okay either way. I do think taking the gamble by retreating to NAfr would have given you a better shot at a solo and if the unit did end up getting destroyed in the spring you would be in no danger of getting eliminated so probably worth the risk.

Germany please...

aaaand an NMR from Germany.

Boooo.

Austria - did you not know that moving invalidates England's support hold of Mos? Not a smart move. Between Germany's NMR and this move this game will be down to 3 countries in a hurry most likely. Only retreat option is Liv and you are the only country with a retreat this turn.

England - not thrilled with these moves, but since Germany NMR'ed didn't really matter. Ruh-Bur and Par-Bre would have bounced everything for you if he had submitted moves and I would not have been surprised to see those moves. Too bad you didn't attack Ber this turn either as the NMR would have put you in there.

Germany - NMR. Lame. Have some pride and show some respect for your fellow players. If you are too busy to play ask the mods to line up a sub for you.

Italy - moves are a bit passive. I don't think you have enough units (especially armies) vs Turkey to afford that. Can't hold Ven with just two armies.

Turkey - decent moves aided by bad defense by Austria. You should be able to finish him off next year if not this fall. Also Italy played to just hold his current position which is a win for you. Good job repositioning your fleets as well.

Spring 1909:

England - The move to Brest tells me that you are leaving Italy alone for right now, which is smart if you are still worried about a Turkish solo. However, if you aren't, your only shot to solo comes through Tunis, so you have to get there whenever you can. If you are settling for a draw, then you made the right move. The move I don't understand is the move to Burgundy - was it supposed to bounce Germany? I imagine he would have supported himself there, but he didn't enter moves. Regardless, you have Germany essentially dead and you've done so before Turkey developed the strength to challenge Munich. Now it's a matter of actually taking the centers.

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Italy - I agree with Yal in the sense that passive moves aren't going to save you here. The Adriatic is now threatened and the Western Med stayed still, which means it is a risk to move the Ionian to the Adriatic in order to try to block him. Had the Western Med moved forward, you would have him in a perpetual stalemate there until he got a fourth fleet, which will happen during builds. If he gets the Adriatic, Venice will fall shortly thereafter, and you'll either be forced to retreat or be killed from behind by England. Either way, you still have a shot if you outguess him and outmuscle him in the next year or so.

Turkey - Boy, did you get a nice assist from Austria or what? You could have two new centers this year with some luck. Regardless, you would have had Warsaw no matter what this year. Tactically speaking, I would prefer that you simply SH Ukraine in that instance rather than playing so aggressively (losing it would be a headache), but your play worked out and that's what really matters. You can build that fourth fleet this winter and look to reduce the draw and still maybe (maybe at best) solo.

Austria - I don't know why you left Moscow. England was going to keep you alive for as long as he reasonably could. Maybe Turkey decides to go after Italy first before Moscow and Warsaw - who knows? Maybe he goes for Munich. You blew your chance at surviving there. Sure, it was already slim, it was still a chance.

bump.

Autumn 1909:

England - I like your moves this phase, and while I think you could be aggressive and go after a solo in the Med, you're being cautiously smart. There is no shame in coming away with a small draw in a game as wild as this one. You wisely (maybe unintentionally?) bounced yourself in Kiel so that your army can move there next spring (or you can convoy a new army), and you are in all likelihood going to eliminate Germany next year. I look for at least one if not two new armies from you - English players always seem to forget to build armies, and now is your chance to balance out your units.

Germany - The NMR is killer. They always are. You're stuck either hoping for Paris or Munich to survive until the end of this one, but the odds of either are really slim. It might be worthwhile to look at alternative campsites for your remaining units assuming that Turkey isn't going to assist your survival in Munich. Has a German ever ended up in Portugal before?

Turkey - You are assured two builds next year, but you got blocked out of the Adriatic and you lost Trieste because of your own oversight. You forgot to switch Serbia's order. Because of that, you don't get to build this year and Italy can basically guess at exactly what your fleets are doing next spring. That really hurts. If you had any chance of a solo left, they're now gone with England growing like he is and Italy's stubbornness for all these years.

Italy - You have pulled some of the most brilliant tricks of anyone in this game and they never seem to fail. Blocking the Adriatic was gutsy and reckless, but it worked, and once again, it looks like you have out-fleeted Turkey (is that a Dip term?). That said, I would like to address the move to Trieste because I disagree with it even though it got you a build - Tyrolia was (and still is) your front line. You have lost it, and you can either retreat to Piedmont or Bohemia (assuming a build in Venice, either army or fleet). Had you simply supported Tyrolia, it would still be there and your line would still be in tact. Regardless, great phase for you. Were your play against Turkey this effective earlier in the game, you might be running away with it.

Austria - Enjoy your last Russian winter.

Fall 09 thoughts:

Austria - down to Mos and doubtful you keep that next year.

England - solid moves against Germany but you seem to be forgoing what would have been a decent shot at a solo. No real downside risk from trying for it, though the window is closing rapidly. In particular I would like to have seen North Sea move to the Channel this turn rather than sit idle. Probably accompanied by Hel-Nth. Builds coming, you will want at least one army, maybe another fleet as well if you do want to make a run at Tunis still. You have enough fleets that you don't need another one really, but too many are out of position to get after Tunis in time I think.

Germany - NMR was costly and now England has you on the brink of elimination. You can probably hold Par next year but Mun seems unlikely and Par has little chance of surviving long term.

Italy - turkey's mistake with Serbia not moving to Tri to bounce you netted you a build. Of course you are just renting Tri, but now you can guarantee control of Tyr next turn with the right moves and should at least be able to keep Turkey out of Adr for a while. England seems content to play for the draw so far and Turkey's solo chances have come and gone unless you re-open things for him.

Turkey - the misorder of Ser cost you a build this turn, but you continued to advance and improve position vs Austria. Solo seems unlikely at this point, but 3-way draw with Italy and England is a decent outcome and is probably most likely outcome in this one.

Rankings
England - slim but unlikely solo chance.
Turkey - even less likely solo chance.
Italy - definitely part of any draw.
Germany - dead within two years.
Austria - probably dead next year.

bump for builds.

Bump, will comment tomorrow.

Spring 10 thoughts: Italy NMR brings real potential for a 17-17 draw in this game now.

Austria - as expected, 3 is still > 2, so you are toast.

England - finally moved towards Iberia and Italy's NMR means it will be even easier than it would have been. With Turkey now in Mos don't forget to get a 2nd unit up by StP.

Germany - probably holding Mun and losing Par unless England decides to go all out for Mun this turn in response to Italy's NMR. Then probably losing Mun this year and Par next.

Italy - Really bad time for NMR (not that there is ever a good time). Probably losing 3 centers this year as a result as opposed to 1-2 if you had submitted moves instead. Very real possibility now that England and Turkey can cut you out completely without risking the other getting a solo as they will both cut throu you like a knife through butter and England should be able to grab Mun and Turkey Tun before the other can mount a legit threat on those.

Turkey - Italy's NMR puts you back in the mix for a solo but more likely brings 17-17 into play.

Retreats - Only one option each, Tri-Alb and Mos-Liv.

Spring 1910:

England - Your biggest blow this year was Turkey in Moscow, but the issue that you haven't yet encountered is contest in Munich. I'm surprised by this, given that Turkey needs that center to solo, but you can't complain, right? At this point, you just need to be patient, make the right moves, and make sure that Italy can't recover from his NMR - if you do that, you should be able to coordinate a 17/17 draw with Turkey at the very least and maybe solo 18/16 if you beat Turkey to the spot.

Germany - There isn't much you can do at this point, and there's really no one to spite, so I would just hope that you survive another year simply by chance.

Turkey - Italy's NMR helped you so, so much. It's amazing how he can have you handled for years and then all of a sudden you break him. Still, you're only taking one center from him this year, and that's the center that we all knew you were taking. You need to be very mindful at this point that England needs two of Munich, Moscow, or Tunis in order to solo, so in my mind you need to prioritize getting to Tunis so that you can make sure he only gets one of those three. If you can do that, you have a 17/17 draw. If not, you simply survive.

Italy - NMR. Not much to say. Your shot at being in a draw, though, just went down the drain.

Austria - Maybe England will be kind and convoy you to Sweden.

Autumn 10 -

Austria - beginning of the end was the turn where you provoked Italy with the move to Ion messing up what had been a strong alliance to that point. The misorder that cost you Gre soon thereafter really killed any chance of recovery after that.

England - solid aggressive moves, you should add Mun and Spa next year at a minimum. Also of benefit to you is that Turkey did not even attempt to advance his fleets which means he probably won't beat you to Tun. On the other hand that also means he will probably have to ease up on Italy which means 3-way draw is back in play as most likely scenario.

Germany - England will have 3 vs 2 (at most, that is if Turkey supports you again from Tyr) against Mun, so you almost certainly get eliminated next year.

Italy - well, Turkey granted you a reprieve. He could have gone after Ion and Ven this turn and likely taken one of them and put the 2-way draw firmly in play. Instead it looks like he will probably be content to play for the 3-way draw which works out nicely for you. Of course if you move too strongly vs England Turkey could always change his mind on that, so what you really need to figure out now is where you need to have the 4 units you will have left after Spa and Mar are gone so that Turkey can't cut you out without risking English solo.

Turkey - not sure I get easing off the gas pedal here. Mun can't hold with just your one unit in Tyr to support and Italy doesn't have enough units to slow England's attack even if he wanted to move away from you completely. To me you should have taken a shot at Ven and Ion this turn to see how that would have gone. The 3-way draw where you stop attacking Italy would always be there so no need to jump straight to that now.

Rankings at end of year 10
England - best chance for a solo but probably settling for 3-way draw
Turkey - not much chance of a solo, should be able to ensure a draw though 3-way more likely than 2-way after this last turn.
Italy - things look much better to stay in draw after fall than they did after the spring NMR. Not out of the woods yet, but with smart moves should be able to grab a spot in the draw.
Germany - likely getting eliminated next year unless England screws up or decides to just offer a draw now and end the game.
Austria - eliminated. Say hi to France and Russia.

Autumn 1910:

England - Smart moves net you a pretty good chance at a solo. You based this year around bringing Germany down to minimal size, which you did, and used a very helpful NMR to basically dismantle Italy's defense in Iberia. Your moves depend on whether or not Italy chooses to disband Gascony, but if he does, you can continue pushing on into the Med without having to worry about defending yourself. You are in a great, aggressive position.

Germany - You should probably try to get the British to take David Hasselhoff off your hands and offer him asylum - you have disappointed the German people, but you cannot allow the hero of all of Germany to be lost.

Turkey - I'm curious about taking your foot off the gas but I can see what you're going for. You know that Italy has at least two disbands and you would like to signal to him that you are ready to stop the solo, which essentially means you've given up on it. What I don't understand is why you didn't move Vienna to Bohemia and simply move Budapest to Serbia, cutting Venice with the Adriatic Sea. That holds England out of Munich, at least for the time being. Regardless, depending on what Italy chooses to disband, you could be looking at something like a 17/17 draw or you could even be looking at nothing more than a survival.

Italy - The NMR sucks but it would have been impossible to defend Iberia anyway with England bearing down like he is. What's more interesting here is that Turkey backed off, and the question is whether or not you actually trust him to hold back or whether you think he's simply waiting for a more opportune moment. Maybe he wants to influence your disbands. It's tough to say. Either way, the outcome of this game could be strongly influenced by which units you trash this phase.

Austria - Prussia will house your people until further notice.

B U M P

THUD

Come on, Bump!

I guess you want comments on the builds. Not much to say in my opinion but here goes.

England - Built a fleet and an army. The fleet will join the cavalcade headed towards Tunis. The army will give him another set of boots on the ground to reinforce Mun when he takes it or go after Livonia eventually or go after Pie eventually.

Germany - Kept Mun. Obviously. His only hope though likely gone at end of this year anyway.

Italy - disbanded the already outnumbered western units. This is a smart/logical disband. Pretty much prevents Turkey from eliminating Italy without risking the English solo. Mun will fall to England along with Mar and Spa putting him at 17 which means the most important center on the board is now Tun.

Turkey - nowhere useful to put any fleets at this point so he built armies. Logical/obvious build. No real chance of a solo (needed to beat England to Mun for starters), no realistic shot at 17-17 draw after the tentative play last year. Should be able to help Italy hold Tun for the 3-way draw once England eliminates Germany in Mun.

Just gonna point to that. ^

Bounce

Spring 1911:

England - You wisely took Munich before that opportunity closed up, and now you are in a good position to get to 17 centers and look for an opening somewhere. Whether or not someone is going to give you one remains to be seen. Italy seems to be inviting you to move as close to him as you want, so keep on pushing east in the Med and see what you can do. It won't be easy for those two to work together and stalemate you.

Germany - At least they were kind enough to leave you a retreat.

Turkey - You have a lot of armies to coordinate, which is good, and you moved them forward accordingly. There's not much else to say about this phase. I will say that the unit in Prussia is vulnerable given your current positioning, but if you cover all your bases, you can close that gap. Looking to the west, though, it looks to me like Italy is inviting you to take the lead in forming a stalemate with your armies. That should be your goal for next phase in my opinion.

Italy - Smart disbands leave you in a good position to stop both England and Turkey and (somehow) sneak into a draw. Your defensive play has been masterful to say the least and, despite a nearly tragic NMR, you are basically sure to last as long as England doesn't find an 18th center somewhere. You need to be mindful that you will have to disband two (at least) units shortly, so make sure that whatever stalemate you intend to form is done with that in mind.