@CB I disagree with you. The rational actor assumption is probably the most appropriate assumption to political decision-making (probably more appropriate than in any other social science (including economics)). It's just the mere focus on IP that is wrong.

@X3- I mean in making decisions assuming rational actors is key, but in preparing for the future (which is what we would be doing here) it is far more beneficial to assume irrational actors. This makes it so that you are prepared for the worst.

If I am playing Austria, I generally assume germany will be rational and stay to the west. But I don't leave my entire rear exposed on that assumption. This way if he is irrational I have some kind of protection. In this way the U.S and the west should respond to Putin as if he is rational (I.E economic and political sanctions.) but should definitely not be scaling back our military forces and defense systems.

I do not think Putin is rational by modern government standards, but I assume he is intelligent, and so far, he has done what I thought would be the best course of action to reform the USSR, so I expect him to continue to make intelligent decisions, sometimes he can be Irrational, but he is still smart enough to see that a war would end his fledgling empire.