Fall 1908

Professor CKRoberts commentary backed the Italian for the solo. I put my money on the French. The odds of a French solo continue to improve on this turn.

These commentaries are going to become briefer. Just not as much analysis required. Without further ado . . . .

FRANCE

The machine continues to roll. Pouring fleets into Baltic Sea where the remnant of Germany home dots will next fall. More armies. That's what Paris is for. Then some fun convoys to Finland and/or Livonia will be forthcoming. I don't see Germany up to the task of holding out indefinitely at St. Petes.

GERMANY

Maybe the turn before this was a deception because you came alive. Poor Russia. Never escaping German wrath all game.

Your job is to hold the nub in St. Pete until Italy can rescue you. However, I think France is out racing Italy for St. Petes. Maybe you can hold onto Moscow and Warsaw though.

ITALY

Wasted self-standoff in Gulf of Lyon. You call it a misorder in global. That description somehow doesn't do it justice. How does disastrous blunder sound, lol? With the right order, you would have bottled up both French fleets in their ports and taken Gulf of Lyon. From there maybe you next secure Spain, Portugal, and slip fleets behind the Mid Atlantic stalemate line. C'Est la Vie.

The French western navy escapes. I foresee French fleets pouring out of Brest indefinitely. Not optimal for gaining a solo. You need an army to secure Munich. But you're going to have to build another fleet because your three eastern fleets are tied up against the remnant of Turkey.

Speaking of which . . . (nice sedgeway, edouche). I like the prospect of Italy controlling Black Sea with an Italian fleet. This guarantees you the rest of Turkey and then Sevastapol, much to Russia's chagrin.

RUSSIA

How many times has Germany stabbed you this game? Your stab of Turkey did not work out well for you. Seems that German diplomacy with Italy was better. I don't know if you have enough firepower now to do anything other than going out with a slight sizzle. Talk to France. Maybe a suicidal, maniacal attack is still a possible option.

TURKEY

Not much you could do with the Italian breakthrough and the Russian stab. I guess it could be called a failure of diplomacy with both powers. But sometimes people don't listen and how am I supposed to know how effectively you communicated.

Imagine you, are feasting in Istanbul. A bloody hand appears and writes words on a wall in a foreign tongue. You find a wise man in your dungeons to interpret them. They say, “Your days are numbered. You have been weighed and found wanting. Your kingdom will be given to the Italians and Russians.”

Bump

Would a prof like to go over the different solo possibilities and how they can be achieved? I see that as an appropritate topic at this point.

I thought professors were supposed to be more retrospective? I think it's a bit unorthodox to lay all of the possible cards out on the table like that.

Well, on the one hand you have have the French solo possibility, which can be achieved by France taking 18 centres. If you dig a bit deeper and carefully analyse the board, however, you will also notice an Italian solo possibility. This can also be achieved by taking 18 centres, but the centres in question will be largely different.

I hope you all appreciated those insights. 8 years of webDip experience went into that.

Of course, if Italy insists on ordering his fleets to chase each other around the Med he has very little chance of anything. At this stage players should be looking for weak spots to exploit, and working out what territories can and must be defended, and what territories are too difficult to defend and can be given up as part of an organised retreat.

And what the hell is Russia doing in Turkey? Gifting Germany your most valuable real estate for the sake of a final foreign adventure owes more to a midlife crisis than a game of diplomacy.

Yoyo, generally I would agree with you but in this circumstance I feel like there is a lot to be learned and very little discussion can go on without diving into the possibilities. If the profs can dance around it and still talk about things with a little more depth than Octavious's genius post above, that's awesome too.

I don't envy the profs. Discussing what can or can't be done without essentially writing the orders yourself is quite a challenge.

Since I missed so much and since we're so far in, we're not doing grades now and instead just some general thoughts.

GERMANY: I am very curious what you're going to do here, since you seem to have such a vendetta for Russia.
RUSSIA: I didn't think moving on Turkey was a good idea, but it is being done in a good way.
ITALY: When I left you were on track for a solo!
FRANCE: You've done quite well since I left. If I were giving grades, you'd be at A or A-.
TURKEY: Sorry to see you go.

In re: bo sox, let's also think about solos. When you get right down to it, solos are simply arithmetic. Octavious made a joke about it, but it's really as simple as that: can you get to 18 centers? Italy's misorder really makes things different here from how I saw it pre-Christmas. I don't think there's going to be a French solo, still, but I think the chances of an Italian solo have become much lower. France probably is closer to a solo than is Italy, but just as the Italian misorder changed things, so too could a French error reverse the odds. We're very close!

There are several stalemate lines in Diplomacy, lines where it is impossible to make any gains no matter how much you outnumber or outsmart the other side as long as they enter the same set of hold orders. The most famous line runs a 17-center division from Tunis to Warsaw to Moscow. If Turkey and France are so inclined, they can both (probably, almost) set up a stalemate line on the southwestern end in this game right now, although doing so immediately could put France into a difficult position for future builds. France is extremely lucky thanks to the Italian misorder and then just a bad decision with the Piedmont bounce in the most recent turn.

In a game like this, a solo race between Italy and France where neither Italy nor France have made major gains beyond their side of Iberia, the competition for a solo is going to be in the former home centers of Germany and Russia. One very important facet about the big stalemate line is that St P cannot, in the long run, be held from the south. There's only two provinces touching it, so the four hostile provinces can always force it if sufficient units exist. I don't like how France is handling this aspect of the solo push, because that fact means there's no hurry to take St P. It will always be there. Warsaw and Moscow are a different story. France's move to Finland means Germany is sort of pinned down, but Germany could also concede St P in order to take Sev and set up an unbreakable line. France, to get a solo, is going to need their current 15 centers (if we include Berlin), plus three other centers--maybe Munich, St P, and something else. But what will that 18th center be? Breaking into Austrian centers will be very difficult; it's hard to get past Tyrolia and Bohemia from Munich and Silesia. France is likely not making gains in the Med (although France can't ignore it, since it's possible that without good play, France can lose position in the southwest).

In terms of an ideal set of moves: If Germany and Italy set up a line hold Warsaw and Moscow but not holding onto Munich, that puts France at a frustrating 17 centers (assuming no losses around Spain). However, this leads to other big issue with solos: personalities. It's pretty unusual to get a solo without some sort of error or suboptimal play on the other side. Will Germany freak out that Italy is going to try to eliminate him and make a mistake or intentionally throw centers? Will Germany, who has seem disengaged before, miss out on important discussions and thus lead to miscommunication? Will Italy or Germany assume they know better than the other, and just tell them what to do, and cause a fight? Can Italy manage the conflict between Russia and Germany--is that done, will Russia make problems in fear of being eliminated, something else? Will France's inability to cultivate minor powers as allies cost them a solo?

The short answer to bo sox's request, then: I see the most likely outcome as a medium-sized draw, France at 16 or 17 vs a 14 or 15 center Italy and a tiny Germany/maybe Russia. For France to get to a solo, they will have to create and exploit divisions/errors in the Italy/Germany(/Russia?) alliance. For Italy to solo, they will have to exploit small misorders by France all across the board to get to crucial centers before France does (the relatively easy part) but also so manage Germany/Russia as to be in position to take their centers in such a way that neither can throw to France.

I apologize in advance if the following is difficult to follow.

I was putting some hay out for our 6-year old Andalusian mare and she pushed into my bubble. I reacted like an alpha dog, bowed up at her. It was then she started a little bucky thing and swinger her hips around. Making a gurgling, "yaaahhhhhh!" noise, I back-pedalled as fast as humanly possible. Unfortunately, my dexterity is not as great as in my younger days and I stumbled, fell backwards onto my tailbone and felt and shock in my lumbar vertebras, I think maybe the L4-L5. Hurt enough to make me nauseous, but I finished haying her and then lay down outside the paddock for 5 minutes to recover. Later that night, the wife game me a couple muscle relaxers and my brain has been unfocused all day. Tomorrow morning, I'm defintely taking some lionsmane chaga coffee to get my synapses working again.

So we're talking solos. My favorite subject. CKRoberts analysis above is excellent.

First, a general citation of authority. The Gamer's Guide to Diplomacy: Stalemates. Here is the link: http://www.dipwiki.com/index.php?title=The_Gamer%27s_Guide_To_Diplomacy:_Stalemates.

My only additional comments are this. Start with Mid Atlantic.

The French here most definitely want to stonewall Italy out of Mid Atlantic. There's no question that must be his goal to achieve the solo. However, it's still in flux. But France is close to locking Mid Atlantic down. He needs another fleet and a bit of shuffling to secure it.

On the other hand, Italy desperately needs to get a fleet into Mid Atlantic. Once there, he has a pirate that can wreak havoc. With these two goals in mind, these two players—the French and the Italian—maneuver for position around this key sea area. Funny. It's not even a supply center. Yet it is important.

The French solo runs through the north. Italy needs Germany and French allies to stop France. Russia should still build another army . . . unless he is stabbed again by Germany. Maybe Germany cannot afford to let Russia live because he just cannot trust him. Maybe he takes Sev off him this turn.

But, but, but … this is where the scoring system for this game could encourage France, Italy, and Germany to eliminate the Russian. More points for all if it is a three way draw. The way this is scored, it really doesn't matter that France and Italy have played the better games. Germany (and Russia if included) score equal points.

Maybe France can use this scoring system diplomatically. As soon as Italy moves F Con to Black Sea, France should be screaming at the Russian that Italy and Germany are going to kill him. Maybe Russia accepts French support into Moscow.

Bumpy

Imho..well done by Italy in that Autumn move around the Western Mediterranean and supporting army Gascony to Marseilles worked well.

Hey everyone,
A thread on the new forum was made to continue this discussion. Let use that one.
You can access it here:
http://www.webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=67