Ah I see, my bad Vashta you are correct, those scans would be spot on then. That's good then.

@Demon, he was discussing the probability of an innocent scan being correct. That's why he didn't include the framer or the millers in his odds.

To be more comprehensive:
With numbers as they currently are, considering the likelihoods of various roles an innocent scan has about a 95% chance of being correct.
A guilty scan has only about a 61% chance of being legit.
These numbers will change depending on who is caught (VTs dying makes odds worse on innocent scans, millers dying makes them better on guilty scans, mafia PRs dying makes them better on innocent scans and worse on guilty ones, except for the lawyer/framer, which just make everything better), but the moral is that the cop(s) should be prioritizing clearing above finding guilties.

Yea I was mistaken in my understanding of what he was breaking down. That makes a ton more sense now. That makes reads all the more important as knowing who shouldn't be lynched is a better slam dunk than who should be.

@maniac, wtf is up with those serious posts? Im so disappointed

@Ghug wtf is up with that first vote for me? im so arroused. Why though?

Why are all the newbies acting like theyre completely clueless and have just witnessed fire for the first time without knowing what it is? I know guys, its all shiny and sparkly and bright, but youre all supposed to be big boys so dont pretend youre more of a rabbit than you really are. Rabbits get eaten

Come out and play Wjessop, I want to see you pick fights again this game. Lots of them. Get that drama up in here

Kinda wanna vote Vecna again now.

Yeah, ##VOTE Vecna

I'll act how the situation dictates I should act. If it seems I'm walking on eggshells I'm just trying to avoid having voting ADD. I'm just of the mind more activity is better, and trying to get things moving. It's been a long few weeks waiting though, and I guess that may have me a bit overzealous to create dialogue.I think it is strange however, that you've taken such offense to people not coming out of the gate guns blazing with outlandish claims.

All that being said, I might as well jump into voting.
##VOTE SkiingCougar

Demon, who is that directed at?

Hmmm time for a public referendum.

Should I shoot Ghug?

Vecnator, that you?

No it is I, pinocchio, wielder of the mighty nose

@becna - my first post was only semi-serious.

do you think i should shoot ghug miss maniac?

Shoot Demon vecna - I'll dissect his post fully if you want me to.

Dissecting Demon’s post:

" reedeer (much like myself) is new to your forum game and may just be harmless newbie play. To be honest I'm just throwing a lot of thoughts and activity in to try and break into the habit of *not* being a lurk.

Still think it's a few hours early for scum calls yet for me, not a ton of tells yet."

Demon buddies with reedeer and in the same sentence tries to link himself with ‘harmless newbie play’. He then uses the phrase ‘to be honest’ which in my experience is anything but honest. He uses the word ‘throwing’ to distance himself from any content he may later produce and he openly says his activity is an attempt not to lurk. This is because he knows lurkers always get some pressure early on. His activity isn’t designed to help the Town it’s designed to protect himself. Protecting oneself is yet another mafia tell. Townies don’t often care about their own survival.

His last sentence belies a thought process that wouldn’t occur to town. He anticipated making scum calls in a few hours. He can’t possibly predict if anyone is going to say anything scummy, but his timescale is based on what he considers to be an optimum time for mafia to start stirring the pot. The final part of his last sentence ‘…not a ton of tells yet’, is just plain wrong. Demon has provided us with more than enough already.

Later on he uses the word 'honestly' again and sure enough as predicted decides the time is now right to start making scum calls.

In a game without a day vig, I might not have dissected this post openly so soon, but I think Demon makes a good day vig target.

Completely disagree with your dissection.

Everyone cares about surviving. If only for it just being an ego thing, or just to have fun. Dead people dont have fun.

And using the word honestly is fine. I do it all the time as well when I am, in fact, being honest. Just a matter of perception, but I have no innate distrust people people using that word. Unless they're politicians, but in my observation demon is far from smooth enough to be one of those

Thanks demon. Vote for me, I'm the mafia. I'm coming to kill you in your sleep :)
##Vote DemonRHK

@vecna - I note you say you 'completely' disagree with my read on Demon, but then only disagree with two of the points made.

Girls just wanna have fu---huuun

I disapprove of that choice of dress as well, go and get changed

@ghug, it was directed at Vecna

@Skiing, it is simply based on your early posts, without any other targets, other than the ones trying to hang me for daring to use words.

@Maniac, it's funny you're on me for saying its early to make scum calls. I was wrong to put a timeline to it, but it is my first game. Vecna is right too. I'm not a smooth talker. I just try to use big words. Sorry I can't play the spy game on seven levels yet like the rest of you.

Ill change my vote when you change yours

Now that I am sober, I have decided to take part.

I still think the "Miller" role is annoying.

##CALL GM: Vote count?

Provisional un-official vote count:
=========================

Vecna: 1 vote (Ghug)
SkiingCougar: 2 votes (DemonRHK, Krellin)
Krellin: 1 vote (SkiingCougar)
DemonRHK: 1 vote (Maniac)
Jamiet99uk: 1 vote (y2kjbk)
Redeer1: 1 vote (ND)
Brainbomb: 3 votes (Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo, Chaqa)
BalkiBartokomous: 1 vote (Vecna)
Ghug: 1 vote (HellenicRiot)

Votes to end - 1 vote (Krellin)

Currently BRAINBOMB is set to be lynched!


I also note that Ghug has changed his vote five times already.

I find it hard to believe that our GM's are voting for Ghug - even though they got the right idea.

Also I have the feeling im playing this game on hardmode and that im a Miller. Come and scan me to confirm silly coppers, I want my ass cleared or at least to know if this game is going to be somewhat challenging in terms of staying alive.

Oh whoops Helen is a GM in this one. I caught his ##VOTE from the introductory text. Lol.

Provisional un-official vote count, attempt #2:
==================================

Vecna: 1 vote (Ghug)
SkiingCougar: 2 votes (DemonRHK, Krellin)
Krellin: 1 vote (SkiingCougar)
DemonRHK: 1 vote (Maniac)
Jamiet99uk: 1 vote (y2kjbk)
Redeer1: 1 vote (ND)
Brainbomb: 3 votes (Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo, Chaqa)
BalkiBartokomous: 1 vote (Vecna)

Votes to end - 1 vote (Krellin)

Currently BRAINBOMB is set to be lynched!

brainbomb is my biggest town-read right now. jamiet, i take it you're rolling back your promise to lurk for 36 hours?

so you're sober, that's cool. why are you concerned at all about the miller role?