We might see Egypt become the inversion of Iran, the secular powers (the military) holding the reins while the Islamists provide a front.

Then again it wasn't much of an election.

"The west helps blast Mubarak out of power and a guy who is equally bad, if not worse, comes into power. Thanks a lot Egypt."

The west was calling for 'peace and stability' before Mubarak had even been overthrown.

Yet ANOTHER horrifying move by Barack Obama. The Muslim Brotherhood is *NOT* about "Democracy"....just ask alll the women that have just been: Told they can't be part of the government; told they can't go to school; told they can be killed by their families for religious violations, etc.....any fucking moron that thinks this is a "Democratic" government has his head up his ass.

There *WAS* no Democrat option....but what that fuckhead Obama did was support a movement that we knew would do a few things:
1. WEAKEN (i.e. DESTROY) ties between Egypt and the US
2. Aim another army at Israel....thus marching the Middle East ever closer to **violent** war....in which Israel will kick ass...
2a. Except this strengthens Iran, and thus emboldens them towards obtaining nukes which very possibly could A. Be used against Israel and B. Lead to horrifying bloodshed in the Middle East "in the name of Allah..."

Murbarack may have been a piece of shit....but now youve got an eniter farmyard worth of shit in Egypt. Fucking Obama the "never-met-a-radical-Islamist-I-didn't-love" has done it again.

By the way...note how Obama is 100% ignoring Syria....where violant Muslims have a free hand to slaughter people....

Well, to his credit, as much as I absolutely detest so many of Putin's positions, and for absurdly high as his high horse can be at times...

At least he's prepared to defend his position as long it takes...

I still abhor most of his positions, and I still find him to be at the fringes and a dogmatist in some respects, but he has a platform and speaks from it, and in fairness when he gets slammed he'll at least respond...I don't know if I've ever heard him say he was wrong about anything (which would be refreshing now and again, even I have a mea culpa moment now and again, Putin) but at least he doesn't shy away from criticism or whine when he gets attacked.



That being said, I'd think anyone with the least amount of sense would see a pro-Iran anything as a bad idea, even a Pro-Iran Iran, as Iran stands right now (how many times can I say "Iran" in a sentence referring to Egypt rather than Iran?)

1. Big deal. The world is not the US.
2. Israel is increasingly becoming irrelevant and nothing scares them more.
2a. Are you talking about the country that hasn't waged a war of conquest in decades? Or are you talking about some other Iran?

"Are you talking about the country that hasn't waged a war of conquest in decades?"

I guess their campaign to conquer Baghdad in the 80s doesn't count?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq-Iran_War

"The war began when Iraq invaded Iran..." etc.

Educate yourself, Stalinist.

That's a bunch of nonsense. Iran shelled a series of border towns, engaged in a year-long campaign of assassinations against Iraqi public officials, and foreswore any adherence to the Algiers Accord (all while Iraq repeatedly offered friendship and peace) well prior to that 'invasion'. Iran repeatedly called for the conquest of Baghdad even after Iraq offered two dozen peace proposals.

But hey you have wikipedia. That's as much education as you require.

@Zmaj....you are ignorant. No point in answering you until you read some history of recent conflicts.

I'm scared -- I agree with Putin. Somebody shoot me. nahh....actually, go for it Putin.

Whenever the world is about to change, idiots huddle together to keep warm.

@krellin (who won't answer because he's muted me, I think):

"1. WEAKEN (i.e. DESTROY) ties between Egypt and the US
2. Aim another army at Israel....thus marching the Middle East ever closer to **violent** war....in which Israel will kick ass...
2a. Except this strengthens Iran, and thus emboldens them towards obtaining nukes which very possibly could A. Be used against Israel and B. Lead to horrifying bloodshed in the Middle East "in the name of Allah...""

1. Not our favorite nation before anyway, Egypt...an ally, but still not exactly our best one...

2. Ummm...AGAIN, Egypt and Israel haven't always been the best of buddies anyway, you know...that whole...war thing...yeah...just saying, even if they were at a truce, it's not as if this turns their best friend into a foaming dog of an enemy all in itself...

2a. I'd actually be curious as to see how an Egyptian ally makes Iran more likely to nuke Israel...you can argue it gives them better political standing in the region, but they were already powerful in the region, and it's not as if Egypt wasn't sympathetic to Iran in some capacity before this anyway...I find fault with that correlation.

What's more--

For all it's bluster, even if Iran DID develop a nuclear weapon, it WOULD NOT use it on Israel, at least not itself--Iran would then itself be turned into a smoldering crater within a week and they know that, even nations that aren't sympathetic towards Israel would leap to condemn such an act, and in the end only Iran, North Korea, and a handful of other rogue nations would even consider not condemning (let alone supporting) the act or siding with Iran...Iraq fell shortly to a mostly-US invasion force...twice.

Against an INTERNATIONAL force, Iran would be demolished so quickly it's rather scary and not even funny.

Ahmadinejad is NOT that stupid--

He's smart enough to realize the THREAT of nuclear action is more valuable to his nation than actually carrying out the act. He may play to the religious fervor of his nation, just like OUR politicians do--but then, religion is NEVER dangerous, is it, krellin?--but he's secular enough to rationalize that decision, that the threat is of greater benefit to himself and his regime than the actual act.

NOW...

Could he conceivably give the bomb to a radical terrorist group and THEY could detonate it out of religiously-fueled hatred, thus leaving Iran there to shuffle their feet and whistle innocently in the corner?

Yes...but:

1. Just as anyone would notice and suspect the kid shuffling and whistling in the corner FIRST so would the international community,
2. They'd suspect that doubly so when it's Israel getting nuked, and
3. This can already happen, a terror group getting their hands on a nuke, so how does Egypt becoming more radical, again, change this so radically?

It's the same situation, essentially.

@Zmaj:

"2. Israel is increasingly becoming irrelevant and nothing scares them more."

I disagree.

They're being viewed as less and less a wholly-innocent party in this drama in the Middle East, but as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict exists, and the Israeli-Iran/Most of the Arab States conflict exists...hell, as long as Israel controls JERUSALEM, they'll be relevant on the world stage--

One of the best and most rigorously trained armies in the world, on a geo-political hotbed, in control of a city that Judaism, Christianity, and Islam have been shedding blood over for well over 1,000 years now, in possession (most likely) of nuclear weapons, backed (albeit less now than ever) by the US and UK...

How is Israel NOT still relevant?

150+ nations in the world or so, it's pretty easily in the Top 2 in terms of relevance, I'd say.

Do you disagree? If so, why?

Hey hoss, did you read this in your wikipedia column:

" Initially, the Iraqi government welcomed the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1978–79, having had a common enemy with them in the deposed Shah.[34] The call, first made by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in June 1979 for Iraqi Shias to overthrow the Ba'ath regime was therefore received with considerable shock in Baghdad.[34] On 17 July 1979, despite Khomeini's call, the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein gave a speech praising the Iranian revolution, and called for Iraqi-Iranian friendship based upon non-interference in each other's internal affairs.[34]"

Stalinist, don't read the wikipedia, it's nothing but lies.

Obi, democracy will make some inroads in the Arab world, it's inevitable. It also means a growing economy. The more prosperous they get, the less they will think about Israel. Why? It's simple: Israel was always the favorite scapegoat of Arab dictators to turn the attention away from domestic problems like poverty and lack of freedoms.

I don't know if this is too big of a deal. The military is now going to write the new constitution, so the presidency is likely to be very weak. The Brotherhood is also not as popular as it was during the first legislative election, so whenever new ones happen they won't have the control they did in the recently dissolved parliament.

I'd bet it's more likely that we see the Brotherhood start acting outside the government than for actual Egyptian policy to change. They're really not quite as bad as people say, but their Salafist allies actually are and can cause plenty of trouble. Enduring internal instability in Egypt the the thing to worry about, not how a hypothetical Iran on the Nile would impact the region strategically.

Uh, together the Brotherhood & Salafists control 70% of Parliament. The fact that the Brotherhood depends on the Salafists for support will turn them to the right. I'm surprised that Mr. Doom & Gloom is fine with an Iranian allied Islamic regime in the most powerful & populous Arab country. This will lead to greater pressure from Saudi Arabia and Israel to do something about Iran.

Invictus, in the end, those are just details. It's all about the current superpowers "putin" down an emergent superpower (Iran). And the citizens of those superpowers are blindly following the propaganda of their governments, as this thread has amply demonstrated.

@Obiwan -- i dont' answer you because, even though you are a brilliatn "Englsih Major", you are incapable of asking where the fucking toilet is in less than 10,000 words.

You are a moron....you THINK your long-winded bullshit is smart....but it's not. it's bullshit...and you seek to overwhelm people with pointless blather.

try to condence your bullshti and I might answer you. But you are *incapable*...which is why I have zero respect for you.

@Obi - the moron...

1. so you admit that Egypt was an ally...a lousy ally...but an ally...and now will not me. POINT: ME

2.Egypt and Israel HAVE been at peace in recent years....they have NOT been openly beligerent about destroying Israel....and NOW they say they think Jerusalem should be their capital. So, again....POINT: ME....hostility has **immediately** increased...

2a. Whether Iran detonates a nuke in Israel IN PERSON or via some terrorist network...you ADMIT that the goal is to nuke Israel....and do not deny that an Egyptian ally incrases their ability. POINT: ME.

You are a fucking idiot, Obi. Truly.

What are you talking about? The US government works hand in glove with Iran 90% of the time. Who helped crush the Iraqi national liberation movement? Iran. Who collaborated completely with the US installed government there? Iran. Who is BFFs with our friend Karzai in Afghanistan? Iran. Who is BFFs with our new friends in Tunisia & Libya? Iran. Who provided the Americans mujihadeen to kill Christians in Bosnia? Iran. Who is overjoyed that the US put pressure on Musharraf to step down and installed the People's Progressive (Iranian puppet) Party? Iran.

Obi must be feeling suicidal now that krellin has passed judgment.

There is not parliament. The military dissolved it.

I'm not fine with an Iranian-allied Egypt. I don't think an Iranian-allied Egypt will happen. The military currently hold all the levers of power and will decide just how much power the newly elected president will get since they are the ones writing the constitution. What I fear is the Salafists and maybe the Brotherhood resisting this and that instability spiraling into sustained unrest. However, since the liberals and socialists are a majority and were kept out of power only because the parties are so divided I can't see there being an Islamic Revolution in Egypt. There can, however, be a long period of uncertainty within Egypt over what the future will hold. That's an incredibly serious problem, but it's a different one than what an Islamic Republic of Egypt would be.

Obi....you moron....see how I ws able to answer you succinctly....that's because i was in Honors English courses i college....they taught me how to condense my thought. You are getting totally fucked by your university.

@zmaj -- Of course, you have *zero* ability to add anything of value to the argument, so you just sling insults. Good Liberal you are....keep it up....we are all *very* impressed by your Obi-cock-sucking...keep it up.

Since you love succinct answers, krellin, here's one. Fuck you :D

http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-enter-women-london-olympics-100953392--oly.html


This is what Egyptian women get to look forward to now....which Zmaj and Obi think it great. Saudi women will now be "allowed" to enter the Olympics.....Oh goody!

@Zmaj....Ahhhhh....poor baby doesn't have an intelligent thought for the topic? Tsk tsk...Obi wouldn't approve....he only wants you to fuck HIM in the ass...

Too many words, krellin. Back to Honors English!

But it is not at all clear that the assembly will be voided either partially or fully.

I don't know why an unstable Egypt will pose more of a problem than an unstable Egypt has already posed. The whole region has been unstable for several years now. Instability doesn't lead to regional war unless somebody finds a reason for it to start. An Iran with powerful allies across the Mediterranean and Middle East is such a reason.

It's funny that you worry so much about Iranian influence and yet support Assad's Syria.

It looks pretty clear to me that the parliament won't continue till the end of the term. The military wants it gone. And even if they're stopped from doing so, the military will be writing the constitution or at the very least will force a new committee that isn't dominated by the Brotherhood. And there's always the possibility of a coup if thigns get out of hand.

I don't think a war will come from Egypt, or at least not from Egypt's government. Maybe a Syria-style period of unrest could have repercussions like an Israeli strike somewhere or something. The liberal and socialist groups in Egypt are numerous enough that the Brotherhood cannot really make the country Iran on the Nile, so we should worry about things staying bad within Egypt and how outside actors will react rather than what a lunatic Islamic regime in Cairo would do.