##GM NOTE -

To those who have asked me privately, yes, wjessmacher is actually banned and will not be involved in this game or site anymore in the foreseeable future.

##Vote DemonRHK

BoSox you have DemonRhk voting for me and 'not voted'...

He voted for you, my bad.

Mafia XVIII Day IV
Official Vote Count 1.1:

Jamiet99UK (4): Hellenic Riot, DemonRHK, Vecna, trip
DemonRHK (3): Maniac, y2kjbk, krellin
Chaqa (2): Yoyoyozo, reedeer1
teacon7 (1): Chaqa

Unvoted (1): Jamiet99UK
Not voted (1): teacon7
End (0/7):

You have 24 1/4 hours remaining until the end of Election Day 3!

DEMONRHK SUMMARY

P1 (Day 1 early): So pumped for game, joke post about not joke voting.
*P2 (Day 1 early): teacon doesn't know about y2k, Demon "agrees" that y2k is scummy as hell.
P4 (Day 1 early-mid): gives a lot of rambling thoughts on those that have posted, needs to look into people more when they post
*P8 (Day 1 mid): votes ND with ND case, he's connecting ND with redeer and brainbomb. something weird about the votes and he's wrong about it all if y2k is scum, but ND is "failing to be useful". scum vibes from vecna and ghug and 1/2 people yet to post.
P9 (Day 1 mid): ND responds curtly "I post when I can" to demonrhk
P16 (Day 1 mid-late): thinks ND is town after interactions with krellin/y2k, votes y2k for being reactionary all day, lurker lynch not helpful, will get into detail in moring.
*P27 (Day 1 late): voted ND because y2k crusade seemed force, stands by y2k vote, reaction to heat "seemed off", has been defensive, hopping around to save self.
*P28 (Day 1 EOD): votes moscow, thinks y2k is still scum, but of two up (multiple up, unsure which two referred to), moscow town is off
P29 (Night 1 early): night result sucks, shady stuff 3 minutes at end (re. Vash I assume is notion)
*P30 (Night 1 early): explains late moscow vote as him claiming VT and not being on a real wagon
*P34 (Night 1 end): odd back-and-forth between ND and demonrhk, sounds like it ends in an apology to ND?
*P38 (Day 2 early): here doing writeup on new info, massive vote analysis leads to meme vote (this post looks planned before the nightkills)
*P48 (Day 2 mid): thinks brainbomb is town but not the doc, weird explanation for why that results in him saying he would be OK lynching brainbomb for info
P50 (Day 2 mid): responds to brainbomb's question-to-all about voting alongside top scumread
*P53 (Day 2 mid): responds to jamiet saying demon not contributing, says feedback given yoyo hasn't shown brainbomb is town and wanting to lych him is scummy, shot of warden is working to screw town up, brainbomb/krellin all over the place, this post is weird weird
P56 (Day 2 mid): sold on jamiet, votes jamiet in response to case from brainbomb
*P57 (Day 2 mid): very scummy-sounding addition to why demon suspects jamiet on top of brainbomb's case, calls jamiet out for wanting to lynch brainbomb, gets really exasperated about it with brainbomb being a PR claim. then says jamiet lynch wont happen, vash is easy scum, his eod1 voting was "nail in coffin", but jamiet hammering brainbomb is too big a deal.
P59 (Day 2 mid): yells at krellin about items
P62 (Day 2 mid-late): no idea what to think about krellin, unvotes, explains sniper/vig shots to maniac
P63 (Day 2 mid-late): tells krellin to calm down and that he has to check and might join him on chaqa
P65 (Day 2 mid-late): something weird i don't get it
P72 (Day 2 mid-late): lost, says he isn't commuter in response to HR query
*P76 (Day 2 mid-late): acknowledges Jamiet with "yup" for suspecting yoyo is making PR claim, wants to hear from ppl not talking, votes yoyo to "get some damn answers around here", gets defensive for brainbomb vote
P81 (Day 2 late): current scum-reads vash y2k yoyo trip chaqa redeer, vash/yoyo strongest lynch
P82 (Day 2 late): weird comment to teacon, sticks to yoyo, moves to vash if doesn't get steam
*P83 (Day 2 late): with krellin on yoyo, doesn't like his weird seeming like he claimed PR but didn't, vash is scum but bus is obvious (??)
P84 (Day 2 late): chimes in with OB on debating whether vash is town, doesn't like that no one has considered WD's death
P85 (Day 2 late): wants to see yoyo swing for pr reveal craziness
*P86 (Day 2 late): votes vash following yoyo "if yoyo going to give us a bus won't pass it up", says he's scumread vash all day to defend vote
P88 (Day 2 end): "the f*ck??" to yoyo moving to chaqa, calls out brainbomb for tying
P89 (Night 2 beginning): again "the f*ck" on yoyo's swinging
P90 (Night 2 beginning): says how cool it is to plan items with his power to make ppl invincible without strongman
P100 (Night 2 end): here, will do write-up later
*P108 (Day 3 mid): massive summary of events followed by very mediocre but complete reads
P110 (Day 3 mid): clarifies who is claiming what items re. krellin and maniac
P112 (Day 3 mid-late): yoyo doing same shit vash did, wants to see him hang, doesn't know about maniac's claim.
*P117 (Day 3 late): responds to yoyo coming in and voting demon for his bad vash case, then that convo disappears
*P118 (Day 3 late): defends yoyo being scummy for almost lynching chaqa, might be a scum-slip here with demon revealing he knows chaqa is town? can't tell what he's saying.
*P120 (Day 3 late): defends yoyo case again, says meme is playing "like town"
P124 (Night 3 mid): would shoot teacon or yoyo
P130 (Day 4 early): clarifies rules on items, doesn't like jamiet for outing PRs
P131 (Day 4 early): super excited for blaster shot
*P132 (Day 4 early): leaning jamiet, 6 unknowns are teacon redeer y2k chaqa trip jamiet, 4 are scum 2 are vt, this is scum-grouping for lazy read assignments
P136 (Day 4 mid): still wants jamiet lynched, thinks teacon is ghost and y2k is conveniently a cop counterclaim
P137 (Day 4 mid): back-and-forth with me and krellin
P139 (Day 4 mid-late): stands by jamiet, can't risk lynching cop

I starred what seemed at all scum-indicative to me. I have to head out now but this summary of DemonRHK shows why he is likely scum, and I suspect he's been working on a "bus yoyo and vash" plan for the entire game, with a desire to lynch jamiet that crept in. teacon i think is the fourth scum that had a weird dialogue with demon and is now crept in as another bus with him being the ghost (it is clear that it is stuck in Demon's head that HR's copscan plan is how his logic can be explained), i would guess a scum-team of HR/yoyo/DemonRHK/teacon right now. yoyo and teacon will be reviewed tomorrow morning.

@y2k - whilst yoyo isnt 100% clear i dont see him hitting ND. hitting me or krellin and trading 1 for 1 was better play and if you're cop hr is scum. scum hr wouldnt claim knowing yoyo had gun. yoyo is as good as clear for now.

It's very possible that yoyo is just another target like jamiet, I need to look back through yoyo in particular. I just saw a lot of similarities in how demon approached both him and Vash.

Or maybe jamiet is a bus. I think trip and Chaqa and redeer are town right now. Regardless, Demon is steady-to-my-lynches and not scum hunting.

I am not a bus.

##VOTE DemonRHK

y2k, you took the time to examine all my posts, you call me scum and that I'm bussing other scum.

I'm confident in my reads right now, given the alternatives. Many people are accused of tunnelling, and aren't called scum. While I may be tunnelling and don't mean to, that alone doesn't mean I am scum. You failed to make any points of why I could be scum. You summarized my posts, and that's it. If we are going to hang a VT at this stage, there needs to be a reason why. I'm steady because I think I am right. I was on Vash, and my hunch on ND turned out to be right in the end.

If you want to hang me and lose the ground we gained on the scum, at least make a compelling argument. What you've given is a biased interpretation of my words, out of context.

What. The. Heck.

This has been a circus of a read. RIP OB_Gyn.

I freely admit to everyone that I've not been as active as the game or players in it deserve. I misjudged the time needed to play this well. As a result have only really posted analyses, not the back and forth that seems to have driven the wagons we've had so far. If lynching me really helps town win, then whatever, go for it. My play hasn't been that helpful, and I'll feel less obligated. I'd love to continue, but if it's time to cut the dead weight, I'll understand.

I walked into this game hoping for a logic puzzle--being able to read/interpret bluffs and breadcrumbs, determine what was in everyone's best interest, and predict moves from there. It's interesting to see a group reason together when we all start from really only one peice of information: your own role. The method I laid out in one of my first big posts reflects the beginnings of my thought on the puzzle: hard past-votes matter.

To that end, I've used what energy I've devoted to the game to write analyses of confirmed past-vote behavior, which highlights jumping, protection, and bussing. I'm not sure how successful that method has been, but I'll find out at the end of the game. Either way, that method is grossly inadequate after D3's lynch and the preponderance of items in play. So, I'll give a brief analysis of D3's lynch to try to be consistent, then move on to more pressing things like cc'ing cops and guns.

EOD3 analysis:

unmoved: krellin, reedeer, demonrhk, vecna, maniac, y2k
jumpers: OB_Gyn, Jamie, HR, Chaqa

jumpers:
t-6.75hrs
captainmeme (4): Chaqa,
Maniac (5): Hellenic Riot, Jamiet99UK,
t-5hrs
captainmeme (5): Chaqa, OB_Gyn_Kenobi
Maniac (5): Hellenic Riot, Jamiet99UK
t-2hrs
captainmeme (6): Chaqa, OB_Gyn_Kenobi, Jamiet99UK
Maniac (4): Hellenic Riot,
t-1hr 11 mins
captainmeme (7): Chaqa, OB_Gyn_Kenobi, Jamiet99uk, Hellenic Riot
Maniac (3):
t-55mins
captainmeme (7): Chaqa, OB_Gyn_Kenobi, Jamiet99uk, Hellenic Riot
Maniac (3):
t-15mins
captainmeme (6): OB_Gyn_Kenobi, Jamiet99uk, Hellenic Riot
Maniac (3):
t-0!
captainmeme (6): OB_Gyn_Kenobi, Jamiet99uk, Hellenic Riot
Maniac (3):

Meme went down too easily, which by itself ought to tell us something.

1. I'm assuming right now that maniac is either towncleared, or world-mafia-mvp-level scamming us. Meme was a VT fall guy. We now know that no mafia needed protecting this night, so junmping-to-protect is ruled out as an option.

2. Krellin was leading a charge against Maniac, but at this point it seems like everyone else was townreading both Krellin and Maniac... so no one really listened. :/ Reedeer1 and DemonRHK stayed on Maniac despite clear signals that he was the inventor. If neither were around at the end of the day, I'm not sure how much we can actually infer from the fact that they finished on Maniac... better to look at why they voted for him in the first place.

3. Vecna, Maniac, and y2kjbk all stayed on meme. No jumping. If y2k is the cop, why did he vote for meme and not someone he had a hunch about?

4. Our cc'ing cops ended up on the same wagon. Before EOD3 neither cop had a living scanned target to accuse, so perhaps they didn't know what to do.

5. If I recall correctly, it was Chaqa who LED the charge against meme... and then dropped off towards the end because it didn't "feel right." If Chaqa is town, I'd say: that's not the best way to make the case (even though I had the same reaction). If Chaqa is scum, I'd say: that's a brilliant way to jump off a wagon and earn towncred.

Bottom line: Voting patterns tonight were largely inconclusive. Meme went down too easily, because neither lead wagon was mafia. I suggest that D4's vote will have a lot more more jumping around by mafia if a mafia's head is on the line, because someone will need protection. I'm saying it now so that we don't forget this when we get to 2 hours out.

re: cop claims

I don't believe either of them. Perhaps some more experienced players can explain this to me. I don't understand why a real cop would EVER claim. Maaaaybe to avoid a "hair trigger" shot. But why would a real cop ever counter-claim?

I think others have gone through the scenarios before (Chaqa/Maniac +1 town for their work). Apologies if I'm repeating the case. I'm writing it up here as I think it through because I found it convincing.

-If HR is cop and claiming (to avoid being shot), then ... well, then I think he screwed up.
-If HR is scum and claiming, then mafia is looking for a cc to find the real cop. Real cop shouldn't claim.
-If HR is vt mvp trying to help town, mafia will know better now that y2k claimed and read HR as guilty. y2k's cc screwed up.


BUT.... y2k claimed:
-y2k cc's and is cop, we wait to see if he dies. If y2k dies at night, HR gets lynched tomorrow.
-y2k cc's and is scum looking to get HR lynched (hence the guilty read on him), I don't know what to do. I can't figure out that scenario.
-y2k cc's and is VT mvp material looking to get a scumread HR lynched, we wait and mafia might waste an NK.

To be honest though, I'm guessing neither HR nor y2k will die at night, because there are other outed PR's to chose from, and an NK on one would mean the scum claimant gets lynched first thing in the morning. Inconclusive.

Bottom line: Lynching either cop claimant is dangerous; better to wait until tomorrow when we have more information, more items, and the cop can get off another scan. Who should be scanned next time around? Might as well think about that out loud.

re: lynch

Chaqa:
I don't understand Chaqa's line of reasoning. If he's granting the reading of ND's dying words/reads so much weight (why?), why does ND's "slight town" read on me supercede the connection to Jamiet that Vecna pointed out? Why not any of the others that ND townread? *Of course* Jamiet is going to disagree with this method, as it indicts him.

y2k vs RHK:
mid lengthy y2k summary of RHK
"*P108 (Day 3 mid): massive summary of events followed by very mediocre but complete reads"
Have I just discovered what WIFOM looks like?

I'm still curious why no one is talking about yoyo's crazy vote-jumping at EOD2, or why he got the gun, or why he decided to shoot ND. Was yoyo scumreading ND all along? Maniac, why give a gun to yoyo, if so many people were scumreading him? Did I miss something?

I cannot be blamed for siding with Y2k on this, as I am town, and I was not sure about HR's claim in the first place.

##Vote DemonRHK
##Sheep Y2k

also -1 scum notch for Maniac. I cannot say why because it will fail if I do, but good job.

I wont be here tomorrow from 10:00 AM on, as I am going to the Northeast Region Bridge of Honor and Sea Scout Ball.

Also @ Chaqa your what happens if we lynch either Cop claim thing I think was wrong. all of them should have had the same numbers because there was the same amount of kills in each.

Ah, so because he inno'd you, he's automatically real, reedeer? That's some interesting logic.

Mafia XVIII Day IV
Official Vote Count 2.0:

DemonRHK (6): Maniac, y2kjbk, krellin, Jamiet99UK, Yoyoyozo, reedeer1
Jamiet99UK (4): Hellenic Riot, DemonRHK, Vecna, trip
teacon7 (1): Chaqa

Not voted (1): teacon7
End (0/7):

You have >19 hours remaining until the end of Election Day 3!

if anyone wants to dispel the way i portrayed any of the points in my Demon summary, I made clear page numbers so you can give way more of an opinion than what teacon just did.

Bump.

@Teacon7 "I don't believe either of them [the cop claims]. Perhaps some more experienced players can explain this to me. I don't understand why a real cop would EVER claim. Maaaaybe to avoid a "hair trigger" shot. But why would a real cop ever counter-claim?" - y2k was absolutely right to CONSIDER counter-claiming in this situation. In the end, it was fine call and I think my idea of almost-cleared town deciding on main target and then giving them an opportunity to cop claim was probably better. That said y2k's claim had a purpose, it undermined HR and bought his 'innocent' reads back into play, and it took his inno reads and himself out of the firing line. The downside, of course, is that we lose y2k in all probability tonight, but we are still strong. I agree with you that it was perhaps a marginal call, but one that was justified, if not optium. He was, of course, the most hidden PR up to that point.

Also at teacon7 - like how you try to justify HR claim and poo-poo y2ks. If you are newbie scum, you've played well.

@teacon7 - I do like the way you have analysed EOD3. It reminds me that Jamie @t-2hrs was decisive in coming off me. It could be that mafia Jamie knew at this point they weren't going to be successful at lynching soft claiming inventor or it could be Town Jamie wanted to protect soft-claiming inventor, My hunch is that if Jamie was mafia he would wait to see what HR did. I wouldn't want to lynch Jamie, today, but he is far from clear.

Or maybe it was because I believed your claim, Maniac.

Wow where is everyone? I'm reading through teacon in a bit.

Calling on ALL Town to read my previous post on last page.

Anyone trying to lynch in either of the cleared groups has a hidden agenda.

Jamiet is by far our best lynch. As i stated before ND clearly set up jamiet so he could out me. It was a tactic discussed in mafia qt, i guarantee it.

I'll be off since I'm going to the casino tonight, so everyone get on jamiet. Do not let the scum confuse you. ##vote jamiett

vecna, knowing that HR is the fake cop and given how and when he fake-claimed, i'm in a position to particularly suspect HR's two claimed innocent scans. I'm honestly torn on jamiet right now, i think it's possible he's just been a poor townie doing some unwise things.

@vecna - at the moment Scum HR and poss scum Demon and trip are voting with you on Jamie, whereas Me, yoyo, krellin and y2k are on Demon. This is so obvious that it shouldn't need stating but - all cleared town should discuss suspects and end up on one guy - splitting our votes allows scum to manipulate. I'm not saying you should move to demon, just that you have to convince enough of cleared town to move to jamie. I can't see me voting jamie over demon and I think yoyo ruled it out also.

*I'm aware none of us are 100% clear, but using term as shorthand.

doing my reread of teacon now, not writing case up immediately, but it's really looking like he's scum too. i wouldn't be surprised at all if demon and teacon are our two ghosts shielded by HR's cop claim from yoyo's blaster.