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EdiBirsan (1469 D(B))
16 Sep 08 UTC
Draw Request lol32
As I understand it there is draw procedure where everyone asks for a draw here.
OK let's try it: Draws include all survivors:

I vote for the draw. France
14 replies
Open
Maniac (189 D(B))
16 Sep 08 UTC
ProsperityY!PP and Exponentialdecay
I'd like to know if these two players are, in fact, the same person. They signed up within a day of each other, log in within minutes of one another and play in all the same games. Does anyone else have evidence of them being either the same player or that they colude?
2 replies
Open
ngs109 (551 D)
16 Sep 08 UTC
Disband
How could I to disband an fleet to build an army next autumn?
5 replies
Open
cgwhite32 (1465 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Chance
Can someone who is better than me work out the probability of me drawing Turkey 9 times out of 35 games. I know its better than 1 in 4, but what is the probability?

Most of those have come in the last few games as well! Am getting heartily sick of the country...

Anyone have a better ratio than that?
Chrispminis (916 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Neville Chamberlain is almost always Russia. =D
cgwhite32 (1465 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Historically, that would raise a few laughs...
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Well, actually, drawing the same country 9 or more times out of 35 is not rare at all. In your case, it just happened to be Turkey.
spartan492 (381 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Ive drawn France in 4 of my 6 games on the site. Its not bad, but I have never played as any country other than Italy or France and I really qwould like to get a country such as Germany or Austria so I can see how the game develops from their perspective...
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Ok, update.

The probability of drawing a given preselected power 9 or more times is about 5,32%. If you assume (wich you shouldnt, but let's) that the probability of two diferent powers being given 9 times is negligible, then the probability of being given some power 9 times or more is 37.2%.

Considering the assumption I made, I'd figure the actual probability being somewhere between 37.2% and 35%.
MadMarx (36299 D(G))
11 Sep 08 UTC
Xapi, are you a math major and/or have you taken a Probability class in college? Your math doesn't make much sense to me, but there must be a math person on here that can actually work the numbers fairly quickly... Anyway, of my first 10 games I got France 6 times, but spartan492 has a shot at beating that!!
cteno4 (100 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
In 46 games I've been Austria ONCE. :(

One important thing to remember with this is that there are not seven degrees of freedom in selecting countries. If you're the third person assigned a country, then whichever countries were assigned to the first two players are no longer available to you.
Centurian (3257 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
I drew Austria five times in a row, and seven of my last ten times. I wasn't pleased.

The nine out of 35 being Turkey is unremarkable, assuming you would mention it whichever country it is. Chances are you will get one country a little more than the others. But if you hated Turkey in particular then it might be stranger.
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
I'm studying electrical engineering, and had a probability course a couple of years back. I did the numbers fairly quickly, this is a rather simple problem, but I could have made a mistake. I'm sure someone who's specialty is Math can corroborate it.
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
"One important thing to remember with this is that there are not seven degrees of freedom in selecting countries. If you're the third person assigned a country, then whichever countries were assigned to the first two players are no longer available to you."

This is irrelevant. From your point of view, each time you enter a game you have a 1/7 chance of taking each power.

There's not much more than that.
MadMarx (36299 D(G))
11 Sep 08 UTC
I love math and am curious what the real answer is... I found a formula for getting Turkey exactly 9 times, using the Binomial Probability Formula:

(35!/(9!*26!)) * (1/7)^9 * (6/7)^26 = 3.179%

So, getting any great power exactly nine times would be seven times that, or 22.253%, I assume...

Now to figure out what the odds are of getting any great power 9 or more times may get us to the 35% - 37.2% that Xapi is talking about, but I don't know... and I have to get back to work now!! :-)
TheGhostmaker (1545 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
I shall assume you mean specifically Turkey.

I shall simplify the problem to there being 1/7th chance of Turkey and 6/7th chance of not Turkey, as that is what we are interested in.

The probability of getting a certain number of "Turkeys" and "Not Turkeys" is the following:

f(n)= P(exactly n Turkeys) = (1/7)^n * (6/7)^(35-n) * 35 Choose n

= (6^(35-n)/7^35) * (n!/(7!(35-7)!))

Then you simply take Sigma of f(n) for n=9 up to 35 For Exactly nine, just for n=9
TheGhostmaker (1545 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
= (6^(35-n)/7^35) * (n!/(7!(35-n)!))

Sorry
TheGhostmaker (1545 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
= (6^(35-n)/7^35) * (25!/(n!(35-n)!))

Not my day this...
TheGhostmaker (1545 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
= (6^(35-n)/7^35) * (35!/(n!(35-n)!))

God we need Edit
TheGhostmaker (1545 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
0.053217109%=Chance for Turkey.

Chance for anyone I'll get onto now.
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
The math I used:

Chances of getting Turkey in a game: 1/7 = 0,143
Chances of not getting Turkey in a game: 1-1/7 = 0.857

Chances of getting Turkey in 'n' games from a set of 'm' games in a given order (Pnm):
(1/7)^n*(1-1/7)^(m-n)

Number of possibilities for getting Turkey 'n' times in 'm' games (Nnm):
m!/(n!*(m-n)!)

Finally, Chances of getting Turkey 'n' times in 'm' games in any order (P):
Pn = Pnm * Nnm

The sum of all Pn from 0 to 8 when m=35 was 94.68%, wich means 100%-94.68% = 5.32% is the chance that n>8.

BTW, the probability of getting France 4 or more times out of 6 is 0.49%, and for 6 or more out of 10 is 0.11%

The probability of getting any country 4 or more out of 6 would be 7 x .49% = 3.43%, and the probability of getting any country 6 out of 10 7 x 0.11% = 0.742%

In this case, this numbers are precise because there is no chance that two diferent powers are given 6 times in 10 games, or 4 in 6.
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
MadMarx: Your number (3.179%) is precise for Turkey being given EXACTLY 9 times. I calculated for Turkey being given 9 or more times, since it would have probably caused the same reaction by cgwhite.

Ghostmaker: I was writing my last post as you were posting, my result is precisely the same as you.

As for the chances of getting any power 9 or more times, it is kinda complicated because of the possibility to get 2 different powers 9 or more times. Multiplying the 5.32% times 7 gives you a maximum for said probability, to this number you should substract the chances of 2 different powers being given 9 or more times, wich is hard to calculate because they are not independent.
cgwhite32 (1465 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
Right....

I am confused as to what is the right number here... The reason I posted was not so much nine times in 35, but that I had had 6 in the last seven as Turkey, or five in the last six. It was an interesting statistical quirk, and I'm just disappointed not to have played any other country than Austria or Turkey for about two months or more, Austria being the one exception.
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
That's because you didn't ask a specific question.

If you want to know the chances of you getting Turkey 9 or more times in 35 games, it's 5.32%

The chances of you getting any country 9 or more times in 35 games is about 37%

The chances of getting Turkey 6 or more in 7 is 0.0052%

The chances of you getting any country 6 or more times in 7 games is 0.0365%
Xapi (194 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
By the way....

http://web.archive.org/web/20011027002011/http://dilbert.com/comics/dilbert/archive/images/dilbert2001182781025.gif
philcore (317 D(S))
11 Sep 08 UTC
Probability = # fav outcomes / Total outcomes
(Not Favorable in the sense that you want to be Turkey, mind you)
I spent the last couple of hours trying to remember/derive this using smaller number sets (getting 2 1s out of 3 tosses of a 4 sided die, for instance). And I came up with the same answer for this particular problem, but I also came up with a generic formula.

[Comb(A, N) * (P-1)^(A-N)]/P^N
Where
A = number of games (35 in this case)
P = possible outcomes (7 countries)
N = Number of times with the same country (9 in this case)

So like many before me said I get
Comb(35,9)*6^26 / 7^35 = .03179 = 3.18%

fyi:
Comb(35, 9) = 35!/(9!(35-9)! = 70607460

now this is the exact same probability to get ANY country 9 times out of 35, so to OR those probabilities, you'd simply add them. so Prob(7Italys OR 7Frances) = 6.36%

So interestingly enough, the probability of getting ANY country 9 times out of 35 is actually 22%
Stevelers (3084 D(G))
11 Sep 08 UTC
On a related note, wasn't there some talk a while back about adding a feature to the site which will allow users to rank their favorite countries, then receive a country based on the seven players' ranks? This could help to eliminate the whole "drawing the same country seven times in a row" thing.
philcore (317 D(S))
11 Sep 08 UTC
Here's an even more generic version, by the way:
[Comb(A, N)*F^N(P-F)^(A-N)] / P^N

Where
A = number of games (35 in this case)
P = possible outcomes (7 countries)
N = Number of times with the same country (9 in this case)
F = Number of favorable choices per game (1 in this case, hence the reduction to the earlier formula)

But now you can ask "What is the Probability of drawing either France or Turkey 9 out of 35 times?"

Comb(35,20)*2^20*5^15 / 7^35 = 14.2%
philcore (317 D(S))
11 Sep 08 UTC
on a related, related note - it would be interesting to see a frequency of wins by country.

The SQL query for this should be fairly simple, without knowing the database structure, I will make some assumptions about collumn names, it would look something like:

SELECT CountryName, Count(CountryName) as 'Wins'
FROM CompletedGames
WHERE FinishPlace = 1
GROUP BY CountryName
Braveheart (2408 D(S))
12 Sep 08 UTC
I am now in my 27th game on this tremendous site.... I have NEVER been drawn as Turkey yet!! What are the chances of that?
abgemacht (1076 D(G))
12 Sep 08 UTC
(6/7)^27 or 1.55%, I believe.
philcore (317 D(S))
12 Sep 08 UTC
abgemacht - you are correct - except the rounding. It's actually 1.56% or 1.5575%

My formula verified.
philcore (317 D(S))
12 Sep 08 UTC
wait aminute - have you found a much simplified version of my formula? Because that works out to the same number, without my complicated math ... I must rethink this
abgemacht (1076 D(G))
12 Sep 08 UTC
Oh, I didn't notice that before. Pretty handy, thanks!
abgemacht (1076 D(G))
12 Sep 08 UTC
well, the question braveheart asked was pretty easy, but for more complicated ones, you'd need to do what you did.
RoteBaron (192 D)
12 Sep 08 UTC
abgemacht and philcore are correct - it reduces to abgemacht's equation when you plug inj the variables for philcore's formula
Caviare (123 D)
13 Sep 08 UTC
I am a maths major. Xapi's maths is quite correct, and he was on the right track. The real question though hasn't yet been answered exactly. The real question is not what is the chance of getting Turkey exactly nine times (3.18%), or getting Turkey nine times or more (5.32%), but what is the chance of getting any country nine times or more. I feel sure the original poster would have found it just as remarkable if he'd drawn England nine times. The chance of getting a country nine times or more in 35 games is 35.3%, so not remarkable at all.
Ralyndi (1106 D)
13 Sep 08 UTC
Haha, the first like... 10 games I played on here I got Germany every single time.
cgwhite32 (1465 D)
13 Sep 08 UTC
Thanks everyone for posting, and I think there is general acceptance on this. My maths is fairly basic (alright, an A at GCSE, but that's no great shakes), and in the UK we were taught probability trees with outcomes on fractions!

Anyway I think I've been fairly unlucky. I just fancy playing Germany, or Russia again. High press countries that give a surge of adrenalin!
kestasjk (95 DMod(P))
13 Sep 08 UTC
> On a related note, wasn't there some talk a while back about
> adding a feature to the site which will allow users to rank their
> favorite countries, then receive a country based on the seven
> players' ranks? This could help to eliminate the whole "drawing
> the same country seven times in a row" thing.
Yup, this feature is hopefully still on. I haven't got the patch from the guy who wrote it but hopefully it'll get added in at some point in the next few months

I haven't read the thread fully, but just in case: The way countries are selected is definitely random. In lots of threads people think the way countries are selected must be biased, but there's no way this is the case. You can check for yourself here:
http://phpdiplomacy.net/doc/phpDoc/__filesource/fsource_GameMaster_Adjudicator_gamemasteradjudicatorpregame.php.html#a67
EdiBirsan (1469 D(B))
14 Sep 08 UTC
Fun with math and statistics: for Caviare100:
"The chance of getting a country nine times or more in 35 games is 35.3%,"
Actually the chance of getting a country nine times or more in 35 games is 100 percent since all 'getting' is of countries. Should read a specific country exactly 9 times. As the Chances of get the same country 35 times out of 35 times is significantly different from getting just 9 out of 35.

Then again I like to say that when you get into a game you actually get to play all seven countries, you just only issue direct orders for one of them, which for the most part does not matter. (G)
Xapi (194 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Edi Birsan: "Actually the chance of getting a country nine times or more in 35 games is 100 percent since all 'getting' is of countries. Should read a specific country exactly 9 times. As the Chances of get the same country 35 times out of 35 times is significantly different from getting just 9 out of 35."

Actually, it should read "the chances of getting the same country 9 times or more", as discussed before, the chances of getting a specific country 9 times or more is 5.32%, and the chances of getting a specific country 9 times exactly is 3.18%

The concept is that it doesn't matter wich country it was that was given 9 times, cgwhite's reaction would have been the same, and, if he had gotten any country more than 9 times, he also would have reacted similarly.


Me: "Considering the assumption I made, I'd figure the actual probability being somewhere between 37.2% and 35%."

Caviare: "The chance of getting a country nine times or more in 35 games is 35.3%, so not remarkable at all."

I love it when I pull a number out of my hat and it works...
Caviare (123 D)
16 Sep 08 UTC
Thanks Xapi for finding a better wording for the question to which 35.3% is the answer: "In 35 games what is the chance of getting the same country 9 times or more". Actually I think from his most recent post, cgwhite32 has a specific dislike for Turkey so may be 5.32% is the answer to the real question after all. He might have a specific dislike for other countries though, so perhaps the real question hasn't yet been asked...
Xapi (194 D)
16 Sep 08 UTC
It's like playing Jeopardy.


40 replies
TheGhostmaker (1545 D)
14 Sep 08 UTC
Leagues have started, Check your e-mail!
Group A:
Delicious Wolf, Belsherj, Rait, TheGhostmaker, Obiwanobiwan, Withnail160, Sean

Group B:
MarekP, Arthurmklo, Madmarx, cgwhite, Krokodil, Ed Poon, Dearmore

Group C:
Thewonderllama, Gobbledydook, Flashman, Pokemon Trainer, Chrispminis, Dangermouse, Xapi

Group D:
Sarge, Braveheart, El_Perro_Artero, Centurian, Blackheath Wanderer, Darwyn, Gryncat

Group E:
Destp, xgongiveit2ya55, Themastergamer, Churchill, Alamothe, Ivo_Ivanov, Ironclad

Group F:
PolarBear, SignalSeven, Abgemacht, Feanor, NevilleChamberlin, Sceptic_ka, Mapleleaf
29 replies
Open
daggertail88 (332 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Black Star's with builds
Usually when a unit is built it has a gold star on it. But sometimes it show up with a black star, instead. I was wondering if this is just a coloring glitch or when does the black star show instead of the gold star?
2 replies
Open
belsherj (258 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Draw request for 'Fra-Eng vs. Ger-Ita-Aus vs. Rus-Tur'
The surviving powers, Fra, Eng, Ger, Ita, Aus would like to request a draw for the following game

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5095

5 replies
Open
abgemacht (1076 D(G))
15 Sep 08 UTC
Anyone want to play Russia?
Hey,

We just started a game and Russia went CD on us. He's still in pretty good shape if anyone wants to play.

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5597
4 replies
Open
Blackheath Wanderer (0 DX)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Forum layout
Is it possible to reorganise the layout of the forums so they make more sense and encourage more discussion?
5 replies
Open
synthesis8 (121 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Support moving into a friendly unit
So what happens if you try to support move into a place where there is a friendly unit (that for whatever reason isn't able to move to another position)?

Does the support move fail or does the friendly unit get destroyed?
3 replies
Open
Anna.Turnipseed (100 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Newbie Game
I've started a game for those of us who are new to diplomacy, to give us some practice. If you're an experienced player, please let us little ones get the hang of it and join another game!

It's called "For all us newbies out there" and it's joinable by clicking the games tab and scrolling down!
2 replies
Open
synthesis8 (121 D)
13 Sep 08 UTC
Not finalizing before turn ends
Is it just me or if turns aren't finalized before it ends, some of the moves don't seem to actually happen. Support holding seems to be one of them. Its screwed me over more than once now. So what turns do you need make sure you finalize for?
10 replies
Open
EdiBirsan (1469 D(B))
15 Sep 08 UTC
NMR Removals what are the rules here?
When a country has No Moves Received (NMR) for a removal adjustment what does the House Rules here do? I cannot seem to find them on the FAQ but I could be just incompetent in my searches.

In the classic rule books the rules generally read somewhat vaguely:
Furthest from a home supply center, fleets before armies, then alphabetical.

This has generally been ruled as furthest: being direct province count regardless of connecting restrictions for a unit type, and home supply center regardless if owned or not owned.

In House Rules around the tournament and club world of Face to Face and the postal ZInes that are hand moderated, this is sometimes changed to the following:

1. Units in a supply center are never removed
2. Units not in a supply center are removed furthest from an OWNED supply center
3. Ties broken by Fleets before armies and then alphabetical by province.

However there are also variations along those lines that detail that distance is measured by the unit's ability to reach the nearest owned supply center so for example a Fleet in the Adriatic may be only two away from Serbia by distance but could never ever reach there so if the competing unit removal was say in Silesia, then the fleet would go before the army.

Anyway, what is the methodology used here?
2 replies
Open
Wombat (722 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Nirnaeth Arnoediad
NEW GAME: Nirnaeth Arnoediad

Pot- 143 each, 1001 total. PPSC, 24 hours per phase.

Come on a join- especially Tolkien fans =)
3 replies
Open
DeliciousWolf (112 D)
14 Sep 08 UTC
Leagues Cup?
I don't know about some of European/British brethren, but in the US and Canada our hockey and football, ahem* - "American" football leagues have a "Championship Cup" to be won and held by the champion team for one year. The following year they have to defend their cup. Usually it has an honorary name, e.g. The Stanley Cup for hockey, named after Lord Stanley.
11 replies
Open
Azogar (0 DX)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Check needed (for kestas)
http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5203

can kestas check this game? england have joined now, with first game and 1 centre, i think that a player (dont know who) have built a multi account.

let me now if all are ok or not.
0 replies
Open
El_Perro_Artero (707 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Is "self" a word?
Really, I don't know if it is. As far as I can see it is used only in conjunction with other words. Examples: self-help, himself, selfless, self-image

Is is ever used on its own?
11 replies
Open
Cliff (230 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Join for only 5 points
I just started a new game called Cheapskate for only 5 points, please join this low risk game!
1 reply
Open
splee (1086 D)
15 Sep 08 UTC
New game - Belief
Winner-takes-all, 10 pts per player.
1 reply
Open
abgemacht (1076 D(G))
15 Sep 08 UTC
2 More Needed for Gunboat Game!
Hey, we still need two more people for our gunboat game (no communication).

Here's the link to join:

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5657&join=on&gamepass=f7fce5981c5e0824fd68c7727cf1f583
4 replies
Open
N1ghthawk (0 DX)
15 Sep 08 UTC
More People Needed
http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5674

This is the last one.
Its a 15 point buy-in PPSC game.
Please join
2 replies
Open
N1ghthawk (0 DX)
15 Sep 08 UTC
And this game too...
http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5675

This is a 30 point buy-in PPSC game.
0 replies
Open
N1ghthawk (0 DX)
15 Sep 08 UTC
Please join this game
http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5666

we need 4 more people to start with a full party.
1 reply
Open
Vampiero (3525 D)
14 Sep 08 UTC
temporary leave of duty
hello everyone,

unfortunately i will be inactive for a little bit while i am accommodating myself to the college evironment. i apologize to everyone who is playing with me who will suffer from my absence (allies). but hopefully i will return within a months time on a consistent basis once again.
0 replies
Open
MVP (167 D)
14 Sep 08 UTC
Diplooooo
http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=5674

game for newbies ;D
0 replies
Open
whalen (373 D)
12 Sep 08 UTC
One more small suggestion...
Be new to php dip, I just had one more suggestion... When playing several games it seems a little hard to keep track of alliances, grudges, and other general notes. It would be great if there was a personal notes section bundled in each game so that a player could record thoughts and notes for themselves about that particular game.

Overall I do love the php format...
9 replies
Open
DeliciousWolf (112 D)
14 Sep 08 UTC
What happens to a multi-accounter?
If a multi-accounter is eliminated are all his games canceled as well, or just his account cancelled and the game continues? The former would seem to punish honest players who have played well, while the latter I believe encourages reporting cheaters promptly.
0 replies
Open
trim101 (363 D)
12 Sep 08 UTC
gunboat game
anyone interested in a gunboat game?
39 replies
Open
Marinero (1993 D)
13 Sep 08 UTC
Request for a draw for game 'Seasoned diplomats only!'
Greetings,

We would like to request a 4 man draw for the Seasoned diplomats only! game.

I being Turkey in that game, hereby agree to a draw :)

Regards,
M
6 replies
Open
El_Perro_Artero (707 D)
11 Sep 08 UTC
A matter of political correctness
What's the politically correct way to say a citizen of the UK of African decent?
In the US it's easy: African-American.
So what do I say? African-Britishman?

In my opinion, it's all getting a bit ridiculous. People need to stop getting so offended by the way things are worded.
49 replies
Open
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