Alright! So the game is back on track for still some years to be played IMHO, but it will be interesting to see how this unfolds!
Let's call these last years: The not-so-easy-solo-chase!
France: This will be a tough one to achieve, Mate! You're at 14 SCs. Russia has abandonned Sweden that will put you on 15 SCs, which leaves you three SCs for the taking... StP *could* potentially be taken in the long run if you get four units surrounding it, but that will take a lot of time and since you are to be broken in the south, it might take even more time to do so. I think your communication with Germany and Italy will be important at this point, even more ITaly since Germany is likely to SH his armies until the end and hope he gets the draw.
Here's the situation: Italy is in quite a precarious position right now. If he breaks you in Tyrr, he exposes himself to R/T and a stab that could be deadly against him. I'll be interested to see how you'll play this out. I think there's a big chance you don't get broken if you bring that thought to the ears of Italy and that he'd better stick to his SCs rather than attack you. An other opportunity you have to consider is that Italy asks Turkey to go to Tyrr supported so he sticks to his SCs.
I think the main idea here is how you can convince R/T of eliminating either Italy or(and?) Germany while being no threat to a solo where they'd lose it all. Show them how they can stalemate you, or will you give them some stalemate line that you say is unbreakable but that you'll know there are some flaws in? Will you let them figure that all out? Will you just back off all of your units in the name of a better draw and hope the smaller powers will go all scared and throw you the solo? As it looks right now, G/I aren't likely going to move from their respective spot.This will be a tough one to achieve but I'll be eager to see how you'll play this out.
Russia/Turkey: Interesting Bul move there. Clearly Russia had more use for a build than you, Turkey, so great move there. Now, I think most of what I said for France applies to you too as well: how will you play this out? Is the "draw" you guys put down is only a diplomatic tool to control G/I better until you stab them? Is it not and are just waiting to achieve the stalemate line *with* G/I and draw a 5 way? I think, if not done already, that you two have to figure out and share a common view of the situation as to how you would like this game to end. But my main concern about this all, is that if you guys go and tell France right now that it's over, you guys want a 5 way draw, I don't see how France can answer to that other than drawing. Are you guys sticking to your point or are you hesitating over something?
Germany: Like I said up there, I think you'll most likely SH your units all the way until the end, but I think you have a pretty safe position right now, as if Russia decides to attack one of your SCs, the other one is in danger. I think the only danger that exists, but that will greatly depend on Russia's balls is if they agree to take 1 SC each on you, but again, it will all depend on Russia's will to go farther or if he prefers to play it safe. Eliminating you takes a lot of risk actually.
Italy: I think if you read all of the above it will give you a pretty good idea of what might happen, how you have to talk your way through all this so I won'T repeat this all in here in your paragraph. I think the main idea there is to not think that R/T are *necessarily* your best friends. They might be, their intentions might be good, but you might have to play the devil's advocate here if you wish to stick to a draw. Your situation is the riskiest one IMHO.
Hope this helps! G'nite everyone.
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