China's never going to invade the US. China and the US almost certainly won't even fight war, except under two scenarios. Maybe three.

One is a Chinese attack on Taiwan. China has always argued it has the right to reunify Taiwan with the mainland by force, and America has pledged itself to prevent China from changing the status quo through military action. So if Red China decided to invade Taiwan it would mean a war with the US. However, Chinese leaders are very crafty. They recently signed a trade deal with Taiwan which over time will inevitably lead to it being engulfed into the Chinese economy. Then they can turn some screws and hey-presto the ROC agrees to a deal like what Hong Kong and Macau have. This might take fifty years but it could easily happen and avoids the Sino-American War which would negate the world economy in addition to Chinese Reunification on the Communist Party's terms.

The other scenario for a US war with China is the collapse of North Korea, and this one is terrifyingly more likely. What happens if the transition after Kim Jong Il's death isn't smooth? Does China occupy the North to keep order an prevent refugees from spilling into Manchuria? Would China ever allow Korean Reunification while American defense agreements with the South are still intact? With tensions unimaginably high in that time period anything could happen. THIS is what we should all worry about. There's no way to predict how things will play out.

A third scenario could be a Chinese war with India that drags the US in somehow, be it from some attack on American troops in Central Asia or just because the idea of a totally unrivaled China on the Asian mainland is too terrifying for American policy makers to just sit back and let happen. Another very unpredictable and not impossible scenario.

The thing about all these scenarios is that they they don't involve Chinese soldiers marching through Seattle. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to be scared shitless over what the Red Chinese leaders are plotting in their seedy Asiatic lairs, but outright invasion of the United States proper is not one of them. More likely you'll just wake up one day to find Coca Cola is majority owned by the Chinese government and your lamp is listening to you.

Whatever happens to China and the US, I think it would at most be like the proxy wars of the Cold War period. The People's Liberation Army will not march through New York just as US troops will not land in Shanghai. And remember, both have big red buttons connected to hundreds or even thousands of nuclear warheads.

Invictus +3 (1 for each plausible source of American and Chinese military conflict).

"They recently signed a trade deal with Taiwan which over time will inevitably lead to it being engulfed into the Chinese economy. Then they can turn some screws and hey-presto the ROC agrees to a deal like what Hong Kong and Macau have. "

Macau and Hongkong were colonies, and were given back to China because of a contract. To compare this with the situation of Taiwan shows your leck of information about that issue, so please stop making prediction...

@Master Warrior

You still haven't answered two very simple questions.

1. How is the PRC going to get here?
2. How are they going to keep their units supplied?

Now, I see you talking about the PRC coming when the US slashes the DOD budget? Given that annually, we spend 10 times what the PRC does on military expenditures, when do you see that happening?

@Invictus - ignore Miro. Miro's just an ass who has to be disagreeable with everyone. Continue presenting your ideas.

@Miro - Yes, Macau and Hong Kong (two words, idiot, not one) are colonies, but part of the agreement upon Hong Kong's return was China wouldn't march in and take over. Yet, Hong Kong is still influenced by and under the economic thumb of China. And the same may well happen with Taiwan. I do not see Invictus' proposal as being way off the mark. It is well within the realm of possibility and you should have a more open mind rather than being the media's "little bitch."

Also, as far as Taiwan goes, don't discount internal political change in the PRC. As it stands, you have a Communist dictatorship with a fairly capitalist industrial baron class. The time will come when the generators of China's wealth will have much more of a say in the political development of the country. As it stands, I would think many of those industrialists are simply happy to be able to do business and make a profit in peace, but give it another 30-40 years, the old guard will be long dead, and things will be different. It may be that the ROC and the PRC will happily merge after a period of time.

TMW likes to paint things in simplistic tones, either from a lack of understanding of the complexities, or a willful disregard of the same. But these things ARE complicated, and even my analysis is extremely shallow and one-dimensional.

@TMDiplofool - The Navy is more likely to stop any potential invasion (from anybody dumb enough to try) than the airforce is. Excepting SAC, the Air Force is mostly offensive in nature. The Navy is the one who regularly patrols the sea and air around our borders. Regular sorties from carriers, and battlegroups and submarines that continually patrol our coastal waterways would shotdown or sink anything that tried to slip through. Your precious Air Force wouldn't even get scrambled before the Navy had the threat neutralized come an invasion.

Oh, and I'm a Marine, but even I can respect what the swabbies provide. And should they somehow manage to hit land, my active duty Marine brothers would work with the other branches' special ops (Seals and Rangers) and their own elite (Marine Force Recon) to see to the "termination" off the invasion rapidly and with extreme prejudice.

"- Yes, Macau and Hong Kong (two words, idiot, not one) are colonies, but part of the agreement upon Hong Kong's return was China wouldn't march in and take over. "

No you are wrong, the duration of the possession was defined in the contract. Learn something instead you call someone an idiot or ass...

'...and with extreme prejudice' does that mean using nuclear weapons on US soil?

Macau - under the agreement for 50 years - "the policy of "one country, two systems", the Central People's Government is responsible for the territory's defence and foreign affairs, while Macau maintains its own legal system, police force, monetary system, customs policy, immigration policy, and delegates to international organisations and events" - to quote wikipedia.

@orathaic - of course not. It means what extreme prejudice always means to a Marine. Shot to kill. Kill them all and let God sort them out. Etc, etc, etc.

@Miro - you are an idiot because you don't know the agreement between them, clearly. The agreement was that Hong Kong would revert to Chinese "control" in 97, but china had to guarantee a 50 year extension to Hong Kong's capitalist economy. I do my due diligence research. Unlike you, who has once again proven yourself to be an asshole of the dirtiest kind.

Joint Declaration
The Sino-British Joint Declaration consist of eight paragraphs, three Annexes about the Basic Policies regarding Hong Kong, the Sino-British Joint Liaison Group and the Land Leases as well as the two Memoranda of the two sides. Each part has the same status, and “The whole makes up a formal international agreement, legally binding in all its parts. An international agreement of this kind is the highest form of commitment between two sovereign states.”[2] Within these declarations the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be directly under the authority of the Central People’s Government of the PRC and shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy except for foreign and defence affairs. It shall be allowed to have executive, legislative and independent judicial power, including that of final adjudication. The Basic Law explains that in addition to Chinese, English may also be used in organs of government and that apart from the national flag and national emblem of the PRC the HKSAR may use a regional flag and emblem of its own. It shall maintain the capitalist economic and trade systems previously practised in Hong Kong. The PRC declared that the basic policies regarding Hong Kong are as follows:

National unity and territorial integrity shall be upheld and a Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) shall be established.
The HKSAR will be directly under the authority of the Central People’s Government of the PRC and will enjoy a high degree of autonomy, except in foreign and defence affairs.
It will vested with executive, legislative and independent judicial power (including that of final adjudication) and the laws currently in force in Hong Kong will remain basically unchanged.
The Government of the HKSAR will be composed of local inhabitants but the chief executive will be appointed by the Central People’s Government and he will nominate the principal officials. Furthermore the legislature of the HKSAR shall be constituted by elections.
Not just the current social and economic system in Hong Kong will remain unchanged, also the life-style and rights and freedoms, including those of the person, of speech, of the press, of assembly, of association, of travel, of movement, of correspondence, of strike, of demonstration of choice of occupation, of academic research and of religious belief, inviolability of the home, the freedom to marry, the right to raise a family freely. Those will be ensured by law as well as the private property, ownership of enterprises, legitimate right of inheritance and foreign investment.
The Hong Kong Special Administration Region will retain the status of a free port and a separate customs territory. It can continue the free trade policy, including free movement of goods and capital.
The HKSAR will retain the status of an international financial centre with free flow of capital and the Hong Kong dollar remaining freely convertible. The HKSAR may authorise designated banks to issue or continue to issue Hong Kong currency under statutory authority.
It will have independent finances with its own budgets and final accounts, but reporting it to the Central People’s Government. Additionally the Central People’s Government will not levy taxes on it.
The HKSAR may establish mutually beneficial economic relations with the United Kingdom and other countries.
The name used for international relations will be ‘Hong Kong, China’. In doing so it may maintain and develop economic and cultural relations and agreements with states, regions and relevant international organisations on its own and it may issue travel documents for Hong Kong. International agreements to which the PRC is not a party but Hong Kong is may remain implemented in the HKSAR.
The government of the HKSAR is responsible for the maintenance of public order. Military forces sent by the Central People’s Government, stationed in HKSAR, for the purpose of defence shall not interfere in the internal affairs in the HKSAR.
Those basic policies will be stipulated in a Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the PRC by the National People’s Congress and will remain unchanged for 50 years.

So? That´s exactly what i said :-), thank you for bring up that facts to my statement!
Learn to read correctly Sherlock...my god are you stupid...

"The duration of the possession was defined in the contract" implies you mean Britains possession. My post clarifies what China is required to do after they took over in 97, not the duration of Britains possession. Why don't you try reading again, you fucking Nazi grandchild.

@Miro - I would suggest that what you wrote was not what you intended to write. Your English is weak, at best, and wrong oft enough to be confusin to native English speakers. If you intended to say the terms of the contract spelled out what China could and could not do for the following 50 years, it isn't what you wrote. What you wrote implied what Britain's remaining possession would be time wise and my point was that the contract said a hell of a lot more than that and that China's hands are tied for 50 years when it comes to overt action, but that doesn't mean they won't resort to covert action and undo eceonomic pressure to get what they want before then.

Contracts are sources for loopholes. So China may not be able to forcibly change anything until 2047, but they cans till influence it so that in 2047 the change will be a mere penstroke.

Oh come on Draug, while you're right did you have to bring Nazi's in to this? My grandparents happen to be what you just called "fucking Nazi's" and yet we're all proud American's now and would stand up and defend her gladly.

As a complete side note, I just want to thank you for putting yourself in harms way to protect those of us stateside so that we can continue to live the life of freedom that we know and love.

@draug, i know Miro should be ignored, but from what i understood what he meant was: the agreement was to the effect that Britian would give Hong Kong back (in 1997) and China wouldn't invade (back when they made the agreement about 100 years ago, IIRC)

refering to : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_for_the_Extension_of_Hong_Kong_Territory

Unless Miro contributes something other than....

"you are wrong oh you are such a stupid moron learn how to read etc"

...perhaps he's not worth getting worked up over.

Just saying.

@drano019 - My apologies to you (and to Miro as well). It was out of line. And I'm of mixed heritage, but more than half German myself (pre-Nazi though as both my family and my wife's all came over in the late 19th and very early 20th centuries).

And I never actually was in harm's way. When I was in the Corps (mid 80s after HS) we had no major conflicts and I was lucky enough to never see combat. But I still had to pass the crucible at Parris Island, SC in August, 1984: the worst month of the year heat and sand flea and fire ant wise.

@Orothaic - The final agreement was signed December 19, 1984, but Britain effectively controlled Hong Kong for 155 years from 1842 to 1997 with the last 99 years of it being a lease from China to prevent the invasion. But Britain's influence on her will continue far into the future, even beyond 2047 one would hope.

Who knows what international influence Britian will hold in 2047.

The EU has changed a lot in the past 40 years and will continue to.

Chinese influence in Asia has done the same...

Woah! This discussion has gotten away from me!

Oops. I didn't mean to say that I wanted the discussion to be about me. I meant to say that I've lost track of the discussion.

It's okay TMW. Your intense egoism and attention-whoring has been transparently obvious for a while.

Be honest. :)

LOL, Amicable Blade!

@Orathaic - I more meant whether Britain's past influence will continue to affect the future of Hong Kong, not whether it will have a direct influence. I guess I should have been clearer on that.

@Miro
Before you start telling people off about their lack of knowledge of Hong Kong you should check your facts first. The situation is not as simple as you think.

The treaty of Nanking in 1841 ceded Hong Kong Island (which is where the main city, Victoria is) to Britain FOR EVER to which where added Stonecutter's Island and the Kowloon peninsula, also FOR EVER, by the treaty of Peking in 1860. In 1898 the British took a 100 year lease on the "New Territories", the area north of Kowloon and Lantau Island (the largest of the HK islands and where I used to live). Legally, only the New Territories had to be returned to China.

The problem for the British Government was that HK Island and the Kowloon peninsula were not a viable state on their own. The old and new airports both lie in the New Territories. Many of HK's people live there, fitting them all onto HK island would be very difficult, and most of their water comes from there too.

@Miro
US natural resources include: coal, copper, lead, molybdenum, phosphates, uranium, bauxite, gold, iron, mercury, nickel, potash, silver, tungsten, zinc, petroleum, natural gas, and timber.

It is also has a lot of arable land and good water supply in many parts.

@Diplomat61 - I forgot you used to live there. I know you've mentioned it in the past. Good to have a former insiders view and knowledge to enlighten us. Thanks!