@Thorfi. I like to give you a full analysis of the Autumn-1906-situation between Austria and Turkey.
Let us first define some sets of moves the players could consider:
Turkish alternatives were:
T1 := [F Con support move to Smyrna from Syria, F Ankara support hold Con, A Syria move to Smyrna]
T2 := [F Con move to Aegean Sea, F Ankara move to Con, A Syria move to Smyrna]
Austrian alternatives were:
A1 := [F Greece move to Aegean Sea, A Bul move to Con, F Smyrna support move to Con from Bul, F Eastern Med support hold Smyrna]
A2 := [F Greece move to Aegean Sea, A Bul support move to Con from Smyrna, F Smyrna move to Con, F Eastern move to Smyrna]
My claim is Turkey should go for T2, while you claim T1 would result in a better or indifferent outcome for Turkey. (A look on the board shows T2 would have been better than T1 given what Austria did, assuming that you agree that an Austrian fleet in Greece is "better" (or less worse) than an Austrian fleet in Aegean Sea (see later.)).
First let us have a look on the general situation of each player:
On the one side Austria is in a very good position, so he has no need to play risky moves, but can slowly develop his armies/fleets and can try (and will manage!) to take out one Turkish SC each year.
On the other side Turkey is in a very bad situation and will likely be eliminated by Austria, if nothing happens. Here comes the crucial point: he has to hope that something happens in his favor elsewhere on the board (like an Italian stab) to distract Austria. So to better his chances of surviving, he has to postpone Austria to extend the time, so something can happen.
You will agree that Austria is postponed if his fleet is not in Aegean Sea but in Greece at the end of 1906, won't you? You may argue it is only a slight advantage, but is definitely a ">"-situation, not just a "=". So it is something to play for. If you want to improve as a player you always have to collect theses small advantages. You may still lose from time to time, but your overall performance will rise.
So why will Austria not play A2? Because it is a risky move - remember no risky moves needed for Austria. Since if Turkey plays T1, which is not that unlikely (he did it in this game!), Austria gets his fleet in Smyrna destroyed and Turkey still has all his 3 SCs. Not to mention that this fleet needed years to get there. In a (T2,A2)-situation Austria would still only get 2 SCs, so there is no real reward for that risk! In conclusion: Never ever would Austria go for A2!
Now if Austria does A1, Turkey is better off with T2, because it results in no fleet in Aegean Sea. To conclude: T2 is superior to T1. My claim follows.
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