^ I should be clear - that isn't necessarily advice that I/A *should* do that. But if either of you is thinking about it, then that is stuff that's necessary to think about and discuss.

Bump

Russia: +1, build. Is there anywhere you can build that isn't going to make an ostensible ally (England, Austria) paranoid? I guess Fleet Sevastopol would do it... Tricky call. :-)

England: +1, build. Good shooting re: Brest. Going to have to be a build in London, but you have way too many fleets, but you also are spread too thin because you're spending two units guarding Sweden. Can't quite bring yourself to trust Russia, but that's left you out of position against France. Just build the Army, IMO. You already have *six* fleets and only two armies. Your French opposition has literally *two* fleets, one of which is most likely going to disband, that Italian fleet has literally done nothing for years, that Russian fleet is just sitting in Berlin and not going anywhere... Minus your fleets in Sweden and Kiel, that's four fleets vs one enemy fleet. Three vs one if you insist on keeping F Nth for rearguard defense. It's too many fleets.

Austria: stand. IMO - if you're working with Italy, *work with Italy*. If you're fighting Italy, *fight with Italy*. If the former, you should have given him back Venice, and been in Vie, Bud, and Tyr, and be enlisting English help (or at least non-aggression) so you could think seriously about Mun-Sil, and you'd be fully ready for a serious spring offensive against Russia, even *with* a Russian build pretty much guaranteed. If the latter, then A Ser should have taken a shot at Bul (preferably supported by Russia) or Gre.

Italy: -1, disband. :-/ F Wes H? Why! Do *something* with it! If you're not going do something with it, at least start the long trip back east! Mind you, now you have a disband, so just disband it, eh? I have to say, Alb-Ion puzzles me - I'd have thought Alb-Gre, no? Or are you and Austria actually going to quit fighting each other... I see possibilities there, but the board doesn't read like it yet.

France: -1, disband. Oh dear. Bad set of misorders there. Par S Mar-Bur, Mar-Pie?! Bre-Pic is sensible. Moving Lvp-Wal makes no sense to me - you might as well hold, the retreat will be open if you're dislodged anyway, and if you're not dislodged, then England was silly and you deserve to keep Lvp. The optimal set of orders were: Bre-Pic, Par-Pic, Mar-Bur for sure. Then most probably Spa-MAO. Maybe Spa-Por, if you thought England was genuinely going to choose to take a shot at MAO-Por or definitely wouldn't try MAO S Pic-Bre. Now you've got a disband, and an Army in Piedmont that should really be in Mar or maybe even Bur. Painful. F Wal is probably the least painful unit to disband, but no disband in that position is good. Good luck. And good luck convincing Italy to keep F Wes and do something to help you with it...

Russia: I forgot to mention - what is A StP doing, exactly? You're kind of doing the same thing I'm complaining at England about, although in your case it's actually also maybe threatening Sweden. You're both kind of stuck there with your units in the pot... not doing anything. In your case though, unlike England's, you actually kind of have the unit almost to spare, and so far Austria isn't turning on you in any effective manner. So. Hrm. I dunno. :-)

BTW: Misorders. I've done them too. But on this site, pretty much *only* when I've clicked Ready without Save, or Save and then only took a cursory look at the move preview.

Click Save, click the move preview tiny button under the map, do a check for any grey lines for support misorders, and then look *slowly* at all of your units and their arrows to make sure all the moves and supports are as you expect them to be, before clicking Ready. Do that, and you won't be making misorders.

Don't do it, and you'll have misorders. I know I have skipped that step on occasion, and have frequently regretted it. :-)

F1905B:

Italy disbands F Wes, as expected. Let's see what happens from here. Definitely opportunities.

France disbands A Pie. Hrm. Not good. That's pretty much dropping any chances of making gains in the homeland. Keeping F Wal is pointless - it's almost certainly going to get force disbanded in Spring, unless England is going to keep sitting in Nth to guard Sweden. Well, and F Wes is gone, so that's one frenemy not to have to worry about.

England builds A Lon. Risk Sweden or risk France making a comeback? Not a trivially obvious call.

Russia builds A War. Good choice, I suspect.

Austria: interesting times.

Here's something to think about -

The E/R on this board provides an interesting dynamic that I don't recall anyone else discussing on here, so I'd like to introduce it as a point of discussion. Though one of the most difficult alliances on the board to form, the E/R provides a world of benefits for both England and Russia, namely that, at the small expense of one unimportant center apiece (like we see here with Norway and Sweden), Russia and England not only don't waste resources in a fight but they support each other throughout. They are natural partners once they can come to a resolution in Scandinavia, and, in my opinion, the only reason that we don't see this alliance more often is because both England and Russia feel entitled to Scandinavia in the opening years of the game when ultimately, a Scandinavian split or even a complete concession of Scandinavia if necessary can lead to a long-term alliance centered in Germany. That is exactly what we see here.

Go back to 1904, when this alliance took form. Both England and Russia have seen some decent growth, but a conversation happened here where both of these powers grew to understand that there is no way that they are going to grow off of each other. Russia, for one, doesn't have the capacity. He needs a number of builds in order to effectively fight England, and those builds would have to be northern fleets, which are great short-term weapons for Russia but largely useless in the bigger picture. So, instead of building northern fleets in order to pick up maybe two or three centers, he gets creative, working with both Italy and England to secure himself two builds, one in Turkey and one in Berlin, both extremely important gains for Russia. In all, the formation of this alliance gained him the same number of centers he would have gained from fighting England (if he won) only with less effort, fewer short-term-use-only units like northern fleets, and a long-term partner in England.

On the English side, the equation is much simpler. War with France is total war. There is no room to fight over Sweden with Russia, nor is there room to defend Denmark from Russia. All hands need to be on deck against France. When an opportunity to ally with someone like Russia who can be a total pain in the neck arises in the midst of a war with France, England would be wise to take it.

By the beginning of 1908, this alliance has allowed both England and Russia to take control of the board. Russia, sitting pretty at 10 centers, has mounted successful attacks on both Italy and Austria simultaneously (undoubtedly assisted by the fact that Austria and Italy simply can't find a way to cooperate) and he has plenty more room for growth ahead of him. England is on his way to decimating France, probably within the next 3 years barring setbacks. Once he does, he'll be at a double digit center count as well.

The question then obviously becomes who is the solo threat, and my answer is simple: both of them. Russia's solo bid is foreseeable right now - there are a lot of Austrian and Balkan centers for the taking (6 to be exact) and Munich bring him closer to the win. England's is less visible right now, but it will be soon enough. Given that the Mediterranean has no naval powers, France will probably cede all four of his centers to England, who might be able to race to Tunis before anyone realizes it as well, leaving him just a few centers short of the win as well.

The bottom line is that this late-blooming E/R is one of the most productive and mutually beneficial alliances on the board, though very difficult to create. It requires a ton of trust - in this instance, both Russia and England are vulnerable to the other. It also requires an understanding that there are greater gains to be had elsewhere. In this instance, the E/R created a pair of powers capable of soloing the board, and, with little resistance on either end from what's left of the I/A, I don't see anyone stopping them other than each other.

2016 SOW 1907 Commentary

Bo asked me to skip ahead to where we are now, so I’m going to pick up here. Most of the in-between years are pretty boring anyways. I’m going to start by looking at the big-picture alliance structures, and then for each power, I’m going to discuss their moves this year and mention one or two things they should be thinking about.

The big alliance right now seems to be E/R. They’ve given themselves a secure north (although they’re devoting a lot of units to it still), which is allowing them to focus elsewhere. For England, this means slowly expanding through France, and for Russia, this means picking off Italian centers in Turkey.

It looks like there was an A/R, and that Austria and Russia were working against Italy, but after the fall moves, that’s a lot less clear than it was. Whether Austria and Russia stick together or split will have cascading effects on everything else on the board, so this is something to watch.

Now, power by power. Fair warning: I don’t have very many good things to say about the moves this year.

Austria.
Don’t NMR. It ruins games for yourself and for everybody else who was expecting a balanced game. Also, don’t run an A/R where Russia is in Galicia for no good reason while Vienna and Budapest remain empty. You’re not uclabb, and ATC isn’t playing Russia here. There’s absolutely nothing Russia needs to be doing as part of an A/R from Galicia that he can’t do in Ukraine without threatening two of your home centers. Also, if you suddenly decide you need to defend against that army in Galicia after all these years, maybe consider the one that doesn’t mess up your advance into Italy and is actually guaranteed to work: tyr-vie, tri-bud, tus s ven. That even allows you to do something useful with Serbia, such as take Greece (bad idea if you’ve decided you’re fighting Russia) or attacking Rumania or supporting Italy to Vienna. Basically, you’ve accomplished nothing this year, and now you need to find yourself a friend in either Italy or Russia real quick so that you’re not surrounded by hostile armies on all sides.

England:
You have a secure border with Russia. There’s an army in Norway. St. Petersburg was empty at the beginning of the year. So why did you hold in North Sea for two straight turns? Following into English Channel would have actually guaranteed you gains against France this year. Going to Norwegian to bounce France and then possibly continuing to North Atlantic to get into the Med also would have made sense. In the long-term, you want your fleets pushing south past Mid-Atlantic Ocean. That path is wide open right now, and there’s nothing to defend in the north. Moves aside, you seem to have strong alliance with Russia, while France seems out to spite you. You really need to be thinking about how you flank France with your fleets and get your armies towards the middle of the board if you want a shot at winning this.

France:
So you had a fleet in North Atlantic threatening Liverpool that England *had* to respond to. So why did you waste it actually going to Liverpool? You never had a chance of holding Liverpool, and you shouldn’t be desperate enough to be scattering your units down dead-ends yet. There were a number of better moves in the spring. You could have supported North Atlantic back into Mid-Atlantic. England can retreat to Portugal, but then he’s the one in a dead end and not you, and you probably keep all your home centers. You could have support Italy into Mid-Atlantic and then tried to put him in Portugal to win a friend. Also, Marseilles to Spain? Marseilles needed to cover Burgundy. I probably would have tapped Picardy too instead of supporting Brest in place. That defends against both Pic s bel-bur and pic s X to bre. If England double-supported mao-bre or tapped Paris, you were losing Brest anyways, so better to make sure England isn’t in Burgundy. And you could have been in Mao assuming Italy didn’t bounce you out. That he would have here even while his east collapses speaks to the ineptitude of your diplomacy, his tactics, or both. Despite all that, you still could have guaranteed keeping Brest and Paris in the fall (because England didn’t move to the Channel). par-pic, bre-pic, mar-bur, spa-mao cuts all the supports. And why in the world did you think moving to Piedmont was a good idea?

Like Austria, you need to find a friend. Maybe convince somebody to do something with that army hanging out in Munich? Maybe convince England and Russia not to be best buds? I see you seem to have belatedly made peace with Italy, which is a start, but without changing the alliance structure, England is going to overwhelm you with sheer numbers, if not with tactical brilliance.

Italy:
Your moves in the spring pretty much set you up for failure. First, does it look like all those Russian armies are friendly? No? Then why are you backing your fleet into Aegean instead of, say, bouncing Russia out of the Black Sea? And why are you going to Mid-Atlantic while your east falls apart? I can understand trying to cut a deal with England where you get Spain, but you don’t have the wherewithal to be in Mid-Atlantic right now. In any case, I think it’s better for you if France doesn’t collapse against England, as then England might be persuaded to hit Russia and take the pressure off of you. I’m also not a fan of the move to Albania. I think you were trying to bounce Austria out, but that’s something that really needs to be done diplomatically (hey Austria, maybe don’t move to Albania while Russia sits surrounded your home centers with armies please? or, I guess, just don’t move at all?). If anything, given the positioning of Russia’s armies so that they threatened both you and Austria and Austria’s inability to threaten you further without straight up giving Russia a solo, it seems like suing for peace and then going to Ionian would have been the route to go.

In fact, that’s probably still the route to go. You need a friend, and I while Russia could be that friend, his sizable lead should make him a solid second choice to Austria. Then again, supporting yourself into Venice might have burned that bridge.

Russia:

I actually like your moves. Your spring moves set up the fall nicely, and then you followed through by forcing Italy to choose between giving up Bulgaria or Constantinople. Even if Italy had been smart and bounced you out of the Black Sea, you likely could have still taken Rumania. You have control in the south, especially if you can get one of Italy and Austria on your side, or at least keep them from being allied against you. I actually like that you didn’t stab Austria. I love allies that are ok with me surrounding them with armies, and when I find one, it’s usually better to keep them around until I can use the stab to push me to 18. Mostly though, you’re actually doing useful things with most of your units instead of sitting around and wasting time. This isn’t the time to get complacent though: even at 10 centers, you still need allies. England is nice in the north, but eventually, he will also be your biggest rival, and the key to staying ahead is to have more southern allies (and less southern resistance) than he does.

Moral of the story here is: do useful things with your units. That means that you need to be working towards strategic goals AND using decent tactics so that your moves don’t all fail. Also, don’t NMR.

Thanks Prof PW

Bye France it was nice knowing you. Completely outmanoeuvred.

Not really. If he stays even in SCs this year (pick up one and lose one is fine), then he has a build in Marseilles provided he gets lucky and it stays open. It could prolong his existence.

England: There's sets of orders which guarantees you end up with 2/3 of Par/Bre/Mar. Just FYI.

France: Lotta hard thinking. Other English orders than the above could result in even worse loss of SCs, so ... good luck.

Italy: England is going to be in the Med next year sometime, unless things go drastically wrong for him somehow. Hope you have a plan to deal with being on the front line of someone with no other enemies... Probably should have been supporting France with your F Wes whilst you had it, if for no other reason than to delay England. That's a bit of hindsight vision, but only a bit.

Russia: Smashy smashy. I don't think there's any concrete advice to offer, other than keep doing whatever you're doing. There's some mildly tricky tactical stuff over in the east, but I suspect you're on to it already.

Austria: Still hanging on to Venice as if it's worth everything to you, eh? You have a static line vs Russia for the moment, or you can risk some SCs to try to crack it, or you can just wait until England joins the anti-Austria party, which they might potentially do even before they crack open the Italian boot. Is Italy your friend, or not? If so, help them, whilst you still can. If not, then, well, my advice to you is that an Austria with no friends is soon to be a very very dead Austria.

Por/Spa is not a 50/50. Think about it. If England got into Spain then Marseilles could be threatened and the fleet would leak into very inconvenient areas. But if England got into Portugal at least the result isn't as immediately devastating. Of course France is not guaranteed to protect Spain because of this, but he might be more likely on average to move Por-Spa.

Por/Spa wasn't even on the cards as a big deal. Bre/Par/Mar (and apparently Mun!) was.

France: Bre-Pic? Gotta say that's an "interesting" choice. Same issue as Lvp-Wal earlier - why on earth are you *leaving* an SC you have a chance to capture *voluntarily*? In this case it wasn't even 99% guaranteed you were going to be forced out, depending on what England (and as it turns out Russia) chose to do. As it turns out you were, but then you get a nice open retreat to exactly where you were going to move.

Austria: :-/ Set up in spring, capture SCs in fall. Imagine if you'd done Mun S Tyr-Boh in spring instead. Looks like you decided to take the risk on the line rather than just locking down the line, doesn't look like it paid off. Good choice to finally hand over Venice, but should have been done years ago. Might be too little, too late.

Russia: Nice play. But I suspect you're going to want that army in StP to come south, ASAP. The one build you've picked up isn't going to be enough, I don't think.

England: Also nice play, but you should already, years ago, have had that Fleet in Nth moved south. Now you've got a semi-loose French Army, and who knows if Austria is mad enough to retreat Mun-Ruh and keep it. Probably not, but I don't know what the diplomacy is like between you. If that's an outright betrayed agreement, then maybe. :-)

Italy: The winnar is you! Well done on finally convincing Austria to give you Venice back. Looks like England won't get into the Med *this* year, so you might have time to do something vs Russia. Maybe. Good luck.


Overall: This isn't endgame yet, but it's getting on to be past the middle of "midgame". That where is everyone's count-to-18 better be getting a serious workout for background thinking.

I don't think Austria thought that through at all. Handing off Venice was terrible. He picked the worst time to do it. He can't afford one disband here let alone two. Now Italy is just going to use thag build and stomp him.

Could probably have afforded one, IMO, there's no point having an Army sitting in Venice doing absolutely nothing. Even worse when he had to use two whole other armies to support it and they also had to do absolutely nothing.

But two disbands is bad, and it should really have been done years ago.

Yeah i prefer the original Austria. Much more handsome.

The timing is only bad because it was years to late. Better to rip the band aid of now than wait yet another year

I also don't think it's *certain* that Italy will stomp Austria - there are other concerns on the board, and attacking Austria right now would mean Italy would be fighting Russia *and* Austria, and although not England *this* year, potentially next year.

(That latter item might be also a reason why *to* stomp Austria though, so, swings and roundabouts.)

Good point, uclabb.

It's not certain because nothing is certain, but it's about as likely as it gets. He is going to have to stave off Russia at some point, but he doesn't yet. I don't see an I/R as a bad idea now that their border is a little more stable.

Disband Tyrolia?! Yeah, OK. I/R are going to eat A for lunch.

I don't think I have much else to say. :-)

You have a better idea for him?

It's almost like we aren't looking at the same board. This is a clear A/I

Heh, I think I looked at that far too quickly. May also have been after driving for two hours just before... Never mind me, dum de dum. Yes, that looks like an A/I.

Things that go Bump in the night.....

A/I doing well. :-)

France... Interesting choice, I think. I see the logic. Not sure I agree with the logic, but it makes some vague sense to just line up on the stalemate line. Gonna be interesting to see what that Italian fleet ends up doing this time...

England doing alright too - going to be interesting to see what happens with F MAO. NAf would be an interesting choice.

Russia finally sent that A StP south...

Autumn 1909 Bumping Phase

If anyone is interested in subbing in for Italy starting next week, please send me a PM. Anyone is welcome.

England has a legitimate solo shot. I want to see if he recognizes it or not.