Fall 1903
Finally, a stab! Well, possibly the most polite stab I've seen in some time. "Here, before I attack you, please, let me help you have an extra center or two." I don't understand the logic, so hopefully France's EOG provides some insights for us.
I guess this is as good a time as any to initiate a discussion of stabs. Why? When? How? Lets take a deeper look.
Backstabbing is an essential part of Diplomacy. You can't win without working with, and later attacking, an ally. Whether that ally was a close friend or simple acquaintance, it will always happen, and how you initiate or respond to a stab speaks measures about your skill and tact as a player. Inevitably, it will happen to everybody at least once a game, likely more than once, and it will always feel like a kick in the balls. Its very easy to get discouraged after a stab, so properly assessing the situation and keeping a rational head can help immensely when facing a sudden attack.
Lets start at square one - how do you stab? A perfect stab has several components: it is unexpected, it nets you centers and momentum, it catches an opponent in a compromised situation, and (ideally) minimizes the chance of a prolonged war of attrition. A good stab is quick and painful but also maximizes the chances of crippling an opponent to minimize resistance. The last thing you want is to stab and end up having to dedicate more units to the attack than originally planned, due to unforeseen circumstances (such as a lucky retreat) or bad timing on the attacker's part.
Obviously, no two stabs are the same, and anything goes in full press, but a successful stab will always have certain characteristics that make it so. With that in mind, lets examine France's attack on Italy. How does it fit into this model?
Well, not very well. I'll break it down.
TIMING - France decided to throw his fleets at Italy during a fall turn. Normally, this is a good idea - grab some easy builds, hopefully cause one or two disbands, catch your opponent unawares. France does have a build here (at least for the time being, pending the English retreat). However, Italy has two! While France will likely get Tunis in the spring, Italy can put himself in a position where a drawn out stalemate in the Med is inevitable, which puts the pressure on France to keep getting builds in Germany. Otherwise, Italy may just be able to turn the tables. This also touches on one of my characteristics of a good stab - momentum. France has zero momentum and Italy is FAR from being crippled or caught off guard by the stab. Instead of a quick and painful stab, France has merely started another drawn out conflict with minimal possible gains.
POOR PLANNING - Remember last turn when France decided to help Italy take Vienna? Italy was wisely able to parlay Vienna into taking Budapest as well, giving him two builds this year, a possibility that France likely overlooked. That unit in Tyrolia would look pretty nice sitting in Venice as well. Unfortunately, since it was tied up with the only possible French build, it was useless in the stab. Italy clearly trusted France enough to ignore that unit and leave Venice open. If that is the case, that army should damn well be headed straight to Venice. Missed opportunity.
BAD LUCK - The English retreat falls into the category of dumb luck. France informed me that Bel - Bur was a misorder which should have gone to Ruhr, which makes more sense. However, that's no excuse. Double check your orders! Now, your build is possibly compromised and, should England disband, it also threatens Belgium next turn with the remains of Germany. A silly mistake.
All in all, not a very good effort from France. A pity, really, since this board really needed a good stab to open it up. Now, the south will just stay bogged down with minimal progress for the foreseeable future.