General thoughts on the setup:
I don't really know if I like this kind of setup. It's a bit early to tell, but it doesn't quite seem like mafia. The mason vs. cult vs. mafia aspect will be interesting, as there's effectively three variable teams. I think it's going to be tough for us going forward since our ranks can only be thinned, but the opposing groups can add to their ranks. This will quickly stack up against us and we need to play smart and effective. Luckily, the vigilante wasted a shot more or less, and didn't hit one of our power roles.
Thoughts on players:
Balki: I don't think Balki is this poor of a player, but I also don't think he's completely scummy (scummy here meaning non-mafia... confusing, I know). Day 1 is usually a tough day and this day 1 is even worse considering the confusion over new roles, new mechanics, and conflicting agendas. The fact that people's roles can change midday is going to just add to the chaos further down the road. Still, Balki seems to be in an unnecessary urge to get past day 1 without dying... which seems odd to me.
Bo_sox: I think bo legitimately town slipped. He's disappeared since then - giving up maybe? Or hoping it all blows over. I'm fine with taking him down now because it's the best bet we have. If he didn't town slip and just made a mistake, then have we really lost anything that important? Probably not.
brainbomb: He isn't spamming like last game. That's a positive. Unfortunately, his posts still aren't making any sense by and large. He seems to be picking people arbitrarily to list as scum, or just listing people who are going after him. He also is just not paying attention... on page 10 he says that hammering would modkill people. The one thing I agree with him on is that delarosa is probably the vigilante.
captainmeme: He's being lurky. Standard captainmeme play.
Claesar: Doing okay for a new guy. Not a ton to say, but I don't quite understand his preemptive defending himself against vigilante accusations. He seems overly defensive. Could be new guy jitters, could be a tell that he isn't a mafia-aligned player.
delarosa: Probably vigilante. I forget exactly what he said that tipped me off to it, but I'm pretty sure he's the vig. I'll go back and look for it tomorrow.
Fluminator: Pretty quiet from Flum so far. I don't understand his whole "alliance" thing, but I'm hoping it was just a joke.
ghug: I'm finding myself agreeing with a lot of what ghug says, which I don't like (fuck ghug, amirite?). However, he seems to be playing like I would expect from a town-aligned (in this game, mafia-aligned) ghug, so I'm not too worried about him. I agree with him that Balki is playing below expectations.
guak: guak is talking way more than I would expect. Typically that is a tell that guak is scum, so in this game it means he's probably a cult leader, mason, or town power role. He also seems to be directing unnecessary amounts of suspicion on brainbomb, particularly when he tried to say brainbomb was claiming a mafia PR. He alternates between overly-thought-out and overly-lazy posts.
HR: A bit quieter than I'd expect from HR. I don't know about him yet. I agree with him that the vigilante is probably not bo_sox and is probably inexperienced.
Jamiet: Why are you spending so much time fixating on who the vigilante is? It's good to make an educated guess, but like 90% of your posts since y2k got shot are about it. I don't think this fixation is a mafia-aligned-tell. I think Jamiet is probably overcompensating to appear to be a VT (vanilla traitor) or mafia member.
Maniac: Where oh where has our Maniac gone...
Mr. Asimov: Decent contributions for a new player. Haven't seen a lot from him in the last ~15 pages.
OB_Gyn: Like HR, pretty null on him. I expect to get a better read as things develop. Some curious interactions with Maniac on page ~9-10.
Vashta: Early on I got the impression Vash was trying to signal to the masons that he was a town power role. I still think that was his goal, but I'm not so sure of his intentions. Could be he wanted them to visit him so he could kill one because he's a mafia PR. Either way I'm keeping an eye on Vash. However, I do agree with his sentiment that VTs trying to become free agents of sorts is a bad strategy for the mafia long-term.
Vecna: One post from him so far I think?
xorxes: Started off OK but haven't seen anything from him recently.
y2k: RIP. Hadn't contributed jack shit, but still RIP.
I'm going to leave my vote on bo_sox. I'm also willing to vote Balki, Jamiet, or guak.