Forum
A place to discuss topics/games with other webDiplomacy players.
Page 1026 of 1419
FirstPreviousNextLast
abgemacht (1076 D(G))
05 Mar 13 UTC
(+1)
A Friendly Message From the Mods
This isn't directed at anyone in particular, just some general trends we've been noticing:
1) Please make sure the email in your profile is up-to-date and you check it regularly.
2) Please remember that there is to be *no* communication in gunboat games, no matter how innocuous.
Thanks
5 replies
Open
steephie22 (182 D(S))
04 Mar 13 UTC
Chance calculations, little help?
Example: I throw a 6-sided die 6 times. How many chance do I have to throw at least one 6 in 1 throw? Any calculation I can think of says 100%, but I'm sure as hell there's a chance to not throw one 6... I do understand the average should be one time per six throws though.
Page 2 of 3
FirstPreviousNextLast
 
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
@SY - The problem is that the odds of rolling two die and getting a 6 improve over 16 and 2/3 %. Whether the dice are rolled independently or together, there are 11 combination out of 36 that have a 6 in them. Each individual die has a one in six chance of getting a six. But the two combine into an overall chance of nearly one in 3 (ten chances at getting one 6, and one at getting two 6s). Trust me, I play craps as well as poker and eat, sleep, and breath probability and staticstics and applied mathematics both in my vocation as a programmer and my avocation as a gambler.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Let's say we roll the dice 10 times. Your chance of a 6 is 10 out of 60.
Can you see that the probability does not increase?

"The more times you roll it the more chance you will get a 6" - common sense
"But the more times you roll the more chance you will also get 1-5" - REALITY
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Draug if I roll 6 die are you saying that I will definitely get a 6? Don't be absurd.
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
And no, there ar 6^3 possible results in your 3 rolls.
111
112
113
114
115
116
121
122
123
124
125
126
131
132
133
134
135
136
141
142
143
144
145
146
...
631
632
633
634
635
636
641
642
643
644
645
646
651
652
653
654
655
656
661
662
663
664
665
666
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
No, SY. The math has been provided. You have a (5/6)^6 chance of not getting a 6, so a 1-(5/6)^6 chance of getting a 6.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Yes but draug there are still 1/6 chances that involve getting a six in all of those combinations
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
(+1)
@SY - I suggest you go take a Probability and Statistics course before you embarrass yourself further.
steephie22 (182 D(S))
04 Mar 13 UTC
I know, but we're talking about one roll of either 1 or 10 million dice here. if I roll 10 million dice there's a huge chance to hit at least 1 six, much bigger than with 1 die, that's what Draugnar and I were trying to explain...

I knew this from the start and everyone else probably did so too...
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
No, there isn't, SY. I will use two dice only and show you all the combinations.

11
12
13
14
15
16
21
22
23
24
25
26
31
32
33
34
35
36
41
42
43
44
45
46
51
52
53
54
55
56
61
62
63
64
65
66

Because the first die may alreayd have a six, there are 6 guaranteed combination. plus 5 more when the first die isn't a 6. 11 total combinations that have at least one 6 out of 36. That is nearly a one third chance in just 2 dice. Nearly but not quite.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
You are using two dice, not two rolls of the same dice. That's completly different.

Steephie, please do not ask a question and then assert your answer.
steephie22 (182 D(S))
04 Mar 13 UTC
I suppose my question wasn't too stupid after all :P
steephie22 (182 D(S))
04 Mar 13 UTC
It's indeed completely different, but he answered the question :) And yes, I know I made some confusing grammatical errors in the opening post, but that's what I meant and Draugnar answered it...

And I was only trying to help you understand it too now I get it SYnapse, didn't mean to offend you, sorry if I did...

This is as an answer to the post of 04:14 PM by SYnapse, I've got the nasty feeling there's a lot of new posts when I click post reply :P
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
No SY. You are seriously confused. Got ake a class. Whether you roll them together or record what the rolls were with the same dice is irrelevant. Each roll has a 1 in 6 chance. This is not disputed. Each roll is annefected by the previous or next roll. Also not disputed. But the over all odds are cumulative (but not truly additive) and you refuse to accept this. I suggest you go take a probability and stats class as you clearly either field it the first time around, or never took it.
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
failed, not field.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
I made a new thread for this
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
unaffected. and "Go take a class". My typing sucks today.
steephie22 (182 D(S))
04 Mar 13 UTC
oh boy, another thread :P let's go see then :)
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
He is using coins which don't work the same as they are 2 sided and 2^2=2*2=2+2 where as dice are six sided and 6^6=/=6*6=/=6+6.
yebellz (729 D(G))
04 Mar 13 UTC
Not sure if Synapse is trolling or just genuinely stupid...
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
I'm not either, yebellz.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Tonight when I go home I'm going to dig up several articles that prove you both wrong, and then I expect an apology, because you clearly are not a master poker player otherwise you would own a mansion and a Ferrari, and I'm rather offended by the way in which you conduct argument by issuing insults immediately.
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
I'd love to see those articles with mathematical proofs (and not copin toss examples, but really mathematical proofs). I will happily go scan some pages on probabilities over time for you from my college Probabilities and Statistics books.
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
And SY, I own a Mercedes and used to own a Corvette. Nothing that special abaout a Ferrari and even the best poker players can get a bad beat. I have seen quad Aces beaten by a Royal Flush. So that is a stupid thing to say. PRobabilities are just odds. But odds are occassionally beaten, that is why they are odds and not guarantees.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
I'm rather making a comment about your arrogance in mathematics based on something rudimentary such as poker, which is not a mathematical but a psychological game, and your general manner leads me to believe you're terrible at poker, as not only do you not understand the principles of probability but you also resort to insults and are clearly emotionally heated in your response.

I am also talking about concepts beyond your college books. The concepts we are talking about such as infinite dice rolls, are not college-based conundrums but they are rather at the highest levels of physics theory and mathematical philosophy. I didn't even begin to mention the problems with using a recurring percentage of probability, or the fact that with infinite rolls, we would get an infinite amount of every result. I was just trying to explain to steephie the correct answer, and it infuriates me that you have driven him (or her) into the incorrect answer.
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Done with SY now. He is clearly trolling or an idiot and I don't waste my effort on either.
redhouse1938 (429 D)
04 Mar 13 UTC
(+1)
Muh Muh Muh

MONSTERMUTE
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dice#Probability - what I've been saying all along
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
From that article:

So, for n rolls of an s-sided die the probability of any result is 1/s^n

Epic. Fucking. Fail. Your own wiki article proves you *wrong*.
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
For 10 rolls therefore the result is 1/6*10? 1/60? WHICH IS 0.1666667 LIKE I'VE BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG
Draugnar (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Not times, idiot. powered. it is 1/(6^10) for each discretete result of ten die. Mu;ltiple that by the number of discrete results that have you desired number in it and you get the probability. Back to the simple 2 dice odds: 1/(6^2) = 1/36 with 11 combinations that means 11/36 or nearly a 1 in 3 shot at getting at least one six. You are confusing the *total* of the dice computation with the odds of a specific number showing on just one of the die.

Page 2 of 3
FirstPreviousNextLast
 

64 replies
blankflag (0 DX)
05 Mar 13 UTC
banning iranian and syrian media stations, good call?
western nations are banning iranian and syrian media, do you guys think it will help prevent unfiltered propaganda from brainwashing our youth? particularly unapproved war images from our covert and fingers crossed soon to be more overt operations.
4 replies
Open
redhouse1938 (429 D)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Work is done at the office
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21572767-forcing-workers-come-office-symptom-yahoos-problems-not-solution

Am I old-fashioned or is Yahoo completely right?
18 replies
Open
blankflag (0 DX)
05 Mar 13 UTC
were all of clintons girls overcompensation?
i just read he had a stint with partial veganism.
8 replies
Open
Yellowjacket (835 D(B))
05 Mar 13 UTC
Which Winnie the Pooh Character are you most like?
I'm firmly of the belief that they have most personalities covered pretty well. I, for example, am firmly a Rabbit. What about YOU!?? Don't mix and match, and don't pick that little dicknob Christopher Robin unless you are a man and enjoy penises that don't belong to you.
8 replies
Open
NigeeBaby (100 D(G))
03 Feb 13 UTC
***The Fox with the Dragon Tattoo Tourney***
Details below
117 replies
Open
Alderian (2425 D(S))
04 Mar 13 UTC
(+1)
Ghost Ratings updated
http://tournaments.webdiplomacy.net/theghost-ratingslist
http://tournaments.webdiplomacy.net/theghost-ratingslist/ghost-ratings-by-category
22 replies
Open
NigeeBaby (100 D(G))
03 Mar 13 UTC
Cardinal Keith O'Brien sorry for sexual misconduct
That's nice .... if there were real justice in this world he would get the opportunity to tell a judge in a court of law how sorry he was, I wonder how sorry he was before he was 'outed' as a paedophile.

59 replies
Open
y2kjbk (4846 D(G))
05 Mar 13 UTC
Complex Rules Question
Inside
6 replies
Open
Yellowjacket (835 D(B))
05 Mar 13 UTC
(+6)
Calling SYnapse's Mom.
If I call SYnapse's mom, the chances are 50/50 of getting either head or tail.
3 replies
Open
SYnapse (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Flipping a coin
If I flip a coin the chances are 50/50 to getting either heads or tails.
46 replies
Open
Captain Canuck (178 D)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Does a convoy equal a support move?
Would someone have to support hold a unit that an enemy is trying to convoy to?
4 replies
Open
blankflag (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
if you owned a banking cartel how would you get rich
any good ideas?
13 replies
Open
jmbostwick (2308 D)
04 Mar 13 UTC
Simple Rules Question
Say I'm convoying an army to Tunis from Naples, and an opponent manages to disband the fleet that was doing the convoying. Can that fleet retreat to Tunis (assuming no other units move in)? Or is it blocked by the attempted convoy?
3 replies
Open
blankflag (0 DX)
04 Mar 13 UTC
whats up with jon stewart
i thought the conflict with woodward was because he pointed out that the sequestration came from the presidents office
but i just saw stewart discuss the matter it went something like this
woodward accused them of moving the goalposts. boring! lets move on.
so... does stewart still have any credibility?
11 replies
Open
Fasces349 (0 DX)
03 Mar 13 UTC
World Diplo IX - not year 1
What year is the World Diplomacy IX set Definitely not year 2000, by then America was united. No countries have ever existed in Antarctica, and the last empire to rule Germany, Italy and France was Napoleon. Only India can claim some legitimacy on that map.
7 replies
Open
ulytau (541 D)
05 Jan 13 UTC
(+1)
Falkland Islands
Recently, many South American countries closed their ports for boats from Falklands to support Argentinian claim to the islands. Since Falklands' economy heavily relies on fishing, not being able to dock, resupply and stuff hits them pretty hard.
158 replies
Open
gamer5432121 (100 D)
04 Mar 13 UTC
(+1)
Playstation 3
What are some things to make fun of about Playstation 3s.
4 replies
Open
Colonel Saloh Cin (100 D)
04 Mar 13 UTC
One more player needed.
Need one player for world game. Bet is 15 D, and the game ID is http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=111246. The phase is 1 day.
0 replies
Open
jgurstein (0 DX)
03 Mar 13 UTC
info on tournaments?
I know that such webdiplomacy tournaments exist yet there is not much talk about them in the forum. Where can i go to join, find out more info, etc?
7 replies
Open
redhouse1938 (429 D)
03 Mar 13 UTC
Social Mobility Thread
Recent events have gotten me to think about this topic. Let's discuss social mobility. I have no agenda for this discussion (contrary to my habit of always putting out some thoughts on an issue I raise) but I'm happy to hear everyone else's and will participate in debate.
24 replies
Open
Lando Calrissian (100 D(S))
02 Mar 13 UTC
COUNTRY MUSIC
How awesome is country music?
47 replies
Open
blankflag (0 DX)
02 Mar 13 UTC
media against obama?
i noticed the media is setting the groundwork for a potential reversal on obama. are they that desperate for a scapegoat that they are crucifying their own messiah? thoughts?
18 replies
Open
MadMarx (36299 D(G))
02 Mar 13 UTC
Marx Madness
NCAA College Basketball Pool
10 replies
Open
warlord922 (1515 D)
01 Mar 13 UTC
Diplomacy Forum
Why is the Diplomacy forum half full of topics unrelated to the game of Diplomacy? If you want to discuss politics or religion, it would seem to me like there are better websites for that.
44 replies
Open
bo_sox48 (5202 DMod(G))
03 Mar 13 UTC
Ryan Kelly
I was watching the UM/Duke game and I was just thinking to myself how incredibly Kelly played... can that game, given the circumstances, go down as one of the greatest in program history?
3 replies
Open
Pjman (0 DX)
03 Mar 13 UTC
Classic, ancient Mediterranean
Who wants to get a ancient Mediterranean or a classic game going preferably classic Annon bet 20?
0 replies
Open
krellin (80 DX)
28 Feb 13 UTC
Fiction Review
Working on a story. You guys all hate me...what better critics. This is a First Draft of a *partial* story. I thank Abge for pushing me back to virtual reality, which will play a major part of the end-game in this story. DO YOUR WORST...open to criticism.

https://www.box.com/s/59qz60t2e5h3wcwva44v
39 replies
Open
Colonel Saloh Cin (100 D)
03 Mar 13 UTC
Need players for World Game.
Join The First Mountain King. It's a world game, 10 D a bet, 13 spaces left, and only 3 1/2 days until it starts. The game ID is
( http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=111247 )
0 replies
Open
Page 1026 of 1419
FirstPreviousNextLast
Back to top