Ed Poon, there were no rebels in Osetia - there were Russian troops there - and no Georgian troops. Who were these rebels poking - the Russians :)
Russia is one messed up country - but it does not automatically mean they are always wrong. Majority of the population there is russian - you cannot expect them to just sit and watch.
The Georgians were either extremely stupid or were heavily misled into this - how crazy do you have to be to attack Russia?

Why does Israel and the US have such a stake in this, I wonder?

Guys, Gerogia does not border with Iran :)

"i don't understand why russia is always the bad guy and usa the good one'

me neither.

I didn't say border...I said "sits next to as a buffer". The point being that if Russia wants to aid Iran directly, through where is it going? Georgia or Azerbaijan.

Don't go there. Really. The FARC are as old as Chavez, even more so. The internal conflict in Colombia is decades old. Chavez simpathy for the FARC, and his attempt to get them to become a 'legal' movement and stop the terrorist activities (mostly kidnapping) will in no way end with a military intrusion into Colombia. In fact, Colombia is the only South American Country to have tresspassed a neigbours borders in this century, when entering Ecuador's territory to conduct a military operation wich ended with the death of Raul Reyes, a FARC's high rank official.

Neither of us live in South Ossetia, and therefore we do not know if the South Ossetians want to be a part of Georgia, a part of Russia, or an independent country. It is clear that if Georgia had to militarize the zone, it wasn't particularily pleasent.

If you ask me, Russia's attack to "free the Ossetians" can potencially be very much alike US's invasion of Irak to "free the Irakis". I just hope the Russians realize their mistake sooner than the Americans.

(Sorry if this starts a flame war)

Because they're aren't too many Russians here to fiercely defend their brand of nationalism. It's not the cold war anymore, but there's always some type of frigid war. It's interesting to see the countries that recognize and are sympathetic to the existence of Kosovo and the actions of Georgia vs. those who believe that their existence and actions are suspect or illegal. It's still NATO vs. Russia.

It's a complex issue but it's still East vs. West. I would hardly say anyone's exactly justified because it's all clouded by intense propaganda on both sides, but I have to say that Georgia has bad timing...

My post was in response to Ed's, got lost in the middle while I was writing

alamothe, it's not that Russia is always bad guy & US good guy, I think it's more the case of bad cop & bad cop or bad & worse

Here is my conspiracy theory:

I think Georgians have done a terrible mistake in putting complete trust into a greater power (That being, US / The West). It seems like a variant of Saddam and Kuwait - Obviously Georgia is not stupid enough to try to retake South Ossetia by force, despite whatever provocations there might be. Why? Because it was obvious that this would happen unless they had clear support from the United States and the European Union.

To put it shortly, I think they had to be confident that they would receive the backing to do what they did. And I think they were confident. My bet is that Russia and the US have probably worked together in this, with Russia starting the provocations and US promising to back Georgia. Then Georgia strikes and gets its head pounded in by the Russians while the West just watches it happen.

Now, why would the Americans do such a thing while it clearly opposes their interests in the region with the oil pipeline? Simple. It's all a bargain - They probably got something in return from Russia, perhaps the green light for an attack on Iran? There's a naval build up at the Persian Gulf at the moment, while news stories are covered by the war in Georgia (http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5499)

This is why I think the Georgians have done a huge mistake in putting their trust in the West so much that they'd pretty much jump off a bridge with their word. It is the Western Betrayal all over again, and only naturally - The US or any other Western powers do not back Georgia because they love the Georgian people or Saakashvili - They do so because it serves their interests. If there's a way to further their interests in an even better way by making a deal with Russia - it is only natural to give false hope to the Georgians and lead them to the mouse trap. After all, that's how diplomacy works, no?

Georgia will probably lose Abkhazia and South Ossetia permanently now, but it will still function as the alternative pipeline for Western countries - Notice how Russia didn't touch the pipeline even "accidentally". Such an "accident" would have left them as the only country to transport oil. If they were acting in defiance of the West, they would have done that, no?

You are right xapi. Unless there is someone here who has intimate knowlegde of the planning on either side, we're all just guessing. My example was to be as far to the US side as others were to the anti-US (see above).

anlari: I hope you're wrong about this supposed "deal" mostly because the last thing the world needs is an invasion of Iran.
If people think Iraq was bad...

Has Russia passed the pipeline yet? They haven't had that much time yet... and South Ossetia is quite a ways north of their major pipelines, so we'll see.

I was under the impression that this was just East vs. West lobbying for more control of the Middle East region, particularly Iran. Russia and Iran have many common interests (eg. Caspian Sea energy) and are fairly tight. I don't think Russia would abandon Iran for America. More likely, this latest move is to exercise more influence on Iran. They are already major arms suppliers to Iran and in the same way that America may be sending privateer troops to help out Georgia, Russia may send privateer troops in case of an invasion of Iran.

Iran is a whole different story from Iraq, because they have far more powerful friends. I'm looking at China, Russia, and India, and to a lesser extent Germany, France, and Italy.

Some of these are no more than far-out conspiracy theories. Darwyn, do you believe the moon landing was faked? Do you believe in aliens?

Yes, conspiracy theories are fun. America (and Israel!) are usually at fault for a farmer sneezing in Madagascar.

An equally plausible of the timing and reason of the Georgia government action was
1) Needs to act before a possibly less supportive Barack Obama is president
2) Russia's leadership was scheduled to be out of the country at the Olympics
3) Russia's leadership was scheduled to be in the presence of Western leaders, who would hopefully keep Russian response in check
4) The belief that Russia wouldn't respond as strongly as they did to soverign Georgian territory

And possibly the reason the Russians didn't get to the pipeline or damage it was that THEY don't want confrontation with the West. They know the West would get involved if their oil was threatened.

Uh, no and no.

"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."
- Franklin D. Roosevelt

I just happen to look deeper than most are willing to go. I mean, do you honestly believe that Israel and America have been funding and training the Georgian army out of the goodness of their heart?

Georgia is a pawn to them.

Rait is right to point this latest news as a good example of effective diplomacy. Surely you see this?

I think this sums up the situation nicely...

http://lataan.blogspot.com/2008/08/reality-behind-western-propaganda-and.html

Hmm, well apparently Russia and Georgia are at a ceasefire though Russia is squatting on the territory that it's moved into, nabbing the crucial east-west highway.

It's sad to see such a hardcore America and Bush supporting country be pretty much abandoned by the country they deemed to be their greatest and most admirable ally. They definitely thought they would get more support.

Meh, nothing new. Ask the Kurds.

I guess Putin will keep his newly acquired SC's...
Georgia made a stupid mistake: trusting their 'allies' the US too much. It didn't realize the precarious position the US was in: it simply can't afford to be enemies with Russia again.

If you find it on a blog, it must be true Darwyn.

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13285

Any thoughts on this?

Someone could create new alternative diplomacy board for Caspian/Black Sea region. Would be up-to-date and fun to play.

Yes, but Russia would start with 20 supply centers and everyone else would get 1 or 2.

You could limit it to the coast actually... Siberia or St. Petersburg wouldn't have much relevance on Black Sea.

I think you'd have to insert an element of chance into this game. Make the Russians stronger, but every turn, they have to roll dice to see which autonomous region will rebel: 1 = Chechnya, 2=Dagestan, 3=Ingushetia, etc. A second roll of the di will determine the level of the violence, indicating the number of armies Russia needs to move to the area, which would increase by 1 every turn the Russian failed to act.

Treefarn...there's a reason papers like the NY Times have been losing revenue consistently over the past few years and blogs have grown in popularity.

Blogs get the news out faster and cover things AP and the other mainstream refuse to.

No need to make blanket statements about my opinion of the matter in an effort to discredit it. If you have something to share to the contrary, let's have it. Otherwise, I retort: "If you read it on the news, it must be true Treefarn". *rolls eyes*

See? I can play that game too. But sadly, it has gotten us nowhere...not that I expected it get anywhere.

Also, did you do any research on your plausible reasons for Georgia's actions? Cuz it sounds like you made them up without any real grasp on the subject.

1) is flat out wrong...Obama in fact supports Bush on this and
2) and 3) are really weak with no bearing on any other factors...

and 4), I think you are on the right track with...but again, it lacks a deeper understanding of what is going on there.

I mean no offense or disrespect. But if you are going to make stuff up, base it on concrete analysis which is based on some facts.

"All war is based on deception."
-Sun Tzu

As diplomacy players, we should know this. And in the real world, this is not any less true.

There is always something deeper going on.