I really don't think France is in a desperate situation at all. England is big and he's gonna get bigger but France is gonna be fine with the channel and eventually claiming Belgium, plus Germany is gonna get off his back to protect Berlin/Munich and Italy is going the other way.

With England so much bigger than France, if France stays with England he is at England's mercy. The balance of power dictates that FG need to Ally.

England knows that. So--what does he offer France to keep France on board?

France and Germany don't have to ally, but naturally they'll leave each other alone at this point. There's little to stop France from attacking England and vice versa - it's fairly inevitable, especially if England gets into Germany.

If England builds armies, France should read that as "it's on."

Realistically, is there anything that England can offer that France would be happy with? France is definitely not going to be satisfied with Munich, and there is no way England is going to help France get another German supply centre after all the effort he has made to secure those tasty builds.
Besides if England helps France, say by trading Belgium and Munich for Kiel and Berlin, then France is also strong, and England's win is nowhere in sight. Better to sow more confusion and ally with Russia, whose help he actually needs.

Haven't had internet for the last week or so, will try to post soon

PW and I were chatting about the German position - and he kindly agreed to let me guest post my complaints about Sweden.

I don't like the English stab of Germany - I think that it costs England diplomatically, and strategically it doesn't move closer to 18. I now think it's very unlikely that England will solo - but I'm going to leave that for PW and uclabb to discuss (or disagree with me).

I don't think that Germany was necessarily spread too thin. Because England stabbing now was bad for England, it should have been ok to leave the front against England open. However, I do think that it was *unnecessary* to leave the front open to England. And I think the mistakes started with the bounce in Sweden.

If the plan is to attack Russia, I think it's better to trade Sweden for a southern build from Russia, build a fleet in Kiel, and then take Sweden with:

Spring: Denmark s Kiel->Baltic
Fall: Denmark s Baltic->Sweden

This is better for Germany, because cutting any support from Russia's Sweden discourages English shenanigans where England gets Denmark in 1902 (discouraged because it means more English units need to be used to take it). It's also better because having a fleet in Denmark is a strong defensive position. A common first stab from England against Germany is to take Denmark - and so parking a unit there is a good way to make that stab harder.

Generally when making plans with an ally, you want to make moves where it's hard for them to work with your common enemy instead. One way to do this is cutting potential enemy support for your ally (Baltic->Sweden cuts support of North Sea->Denmark). In this game, Germany instead took Sweden in the spring. Taking centres in the spring just makes it easier for your ally to stab you.

Letting Russia in to Sweden is also better diplomatically, because giving Sweden to Russia means that:

1) Russia can be encouraged to do something beneficial for the E/G in the south

2) Spring 1902 doesn't have Russia going to England with creative pitches about how to fight Germany together. He has better things to do with his time.

3) Bouncing Sweden *and* going to Bur means that the whole board not only sees an EG, but they see one that is prepared to make aggressive moves together. It's reasonable for strong alliances to form in response - and it's consequently not surprising to see Austria move to Tyl and Boh in S 1902.

I see that PW called Germany's bounce in Sweden as a request from England, and I think he's probably right - but if I'd been Germany, I'd have said "look, it's actually better for both of us if Russia has Sweden now, <here's why>". All too often the bounce in Sweden goes like this:

England to Germany: Bounce Sweden to show you're serious about working with me
Germany: ok!
*bounce*
England to Russia: Man, Germany! What an asshole! Want to kill him?
Russia to England: ok!

Please, stop doing it.

Leaves cover the ground
As the fall winds start blowing
Whom shall dodge peril?

Alliances

Little Bird on window sill.
Bright red legs and yellow bill.
I coaxed him in with a piece of bread.
Then I bit off his little head.

Can France catch a diplomatic break? AIRE cheerfully slicing up the board, but three's a crowd in both Germany and Turkey, and tension could bring their knives to bear on each other. Gre is awkward but probably irrelevant.

France should be glad he isn't Germany or Turkey. That's gotta say something right?

Great post by ATC- the key to it is that you have to think about alliance timing and not setting yourself up to be stabbed. This is really really important.

Having said that, as ATC alluded to, the English stab was a bad one. There are a few reasons:

1. All momentum on France was lost. Even with France taking back Paris, you had a huge head start on him. In particular, he only had one fleet, and you could have kept him with one northern fleet, which means you would have had a decent shot at keeping him that way. In fact, had you made the somewhat obvious but maybe a little more advanced move of EC S Par-> Brest you would have kept France at 4 with 1 fleet. You would easily be into MAO this year and could knock out France easily.

2. Germany was already slowed down, which means your stab didn't actually gain you any center control. With Austria and Russia attacking Germany from the east, the centers you stabbed for- Denmark and Holland- were already yours whenever you wanted. And giving Russia Sweden is clearly a negative, with Russia flowing north and west. When Germany is dead, he attacks you next.

3. The stab left you with terrible position. Leaving North Sea empty and having a bunch of fleets on the coast did kind of force you to build fleets if you don't want to get rocked by F/R, but now you are way, way overfleeted. You basically have left France no choice but to fight you for the rest of the game as your fleets just don't have anywhere to go, so now you have a 5 center France + 3-4 Russian units taking on your 7-8 center power with a bunch of useless fleets and you are pretty stuck. If a stab leaves you that out of position (basically this year has to be about restablishing a decent structure), it's probably a sign that you will have a better opportunity later.

4. The stab didn't advance your win condition. When you have a good start, you should be trying to solo. With a strong E/G to start, you have good solo prospects. But you have to count your 18. And your 18th is almost certainly Tunis or Moscow. Stabbing Germany here does not get you closer to either of those- in fact, it makes you further, as Germany was softening up France for you and was taking Russia on head on. You also want to think about the timing of the R/A/I. They were about to have some issues when Turkey was dead and they wouldn't really have a way to work together. It's worth figuring out how that conflict is going to play out before stabbing. A lot has to go right to solo, and it's not a good start to have no allies in 1902.

The moves around Turkey this past turn leave a lot to be desired and are hard to parse.

Surely Austria knew Aegean Sea was going to have a retreat, so I have no idea why Greece was left open. It's just unnecessary. You could get Bulgaria in fall and keep the contain. Similarly, I don't really understand why Italy is supporting Russia into Armenia here. It's overkill. All you are doing is setting up a fight with Russia over the Turkish centers. One assumes that you are all pretending that you are going to share Turkish centers. If so, the extra Russia unit is unnecessary. If the plan is to work toward I/R, you want to pull the fleet south and get an excuse to have armies in Rumania and near Galicia. If the plan is I/A, you want to be able to take Turkey for yourself. I suspect you are just setting yourself up for a A/R stab.

Soft blanket of snow
Empires prepare for next year
Building in the cold

New dew on the fields
Along with the hope of spring
War begins again

Bump

Just popping in to say that I loooooooove Austria's moves this phase.

Any other comments?

Sure, I can go further.

The reason I love Austria's moves are because he has the potential to put Russia in a bind and he is in position to solo once he does. Having occupied Munich, he occupies one of the most important stalemate lines on the map - almost every power attempting to solo at some point meets or crosses the Munich/Berlin stalemate line. It is in the very center of the map and it can be defended from attack from both the east and west, though before Austria can ensure its total defense, he needs to ensure that he controls the east, which means he needs to occupy Russia.

The best way that Austria has to occupy Russia is to keep on building armies. Long term, Rumania is a sitting duck even if Russia builds in Sevastopol, and I'm a little bit disappointed that Austria didn't try and take it, but sneaking into Venice uncontested makes up for that. Moreover, Austria is going to be able to take Greece at some stage and be able to open up Trieste for a fleet build here. If he manages to hang onto Berlin, then he is able to build an army in Budapest and a fleet in Trieste, which gives him the ability to stave off Italy's inevitable vengeance/attack, take Greece with his army in Albania, and be in position to take Rumania down the line.

There are a couple of holes - for example, Austria doesn't have enough competitive armies (i.e. armies that aren't defending Munich/Berlin or doing something else) to take on Russia right now, nor will these builds necessarily help him that much if Italy puts up any sort of competent resistance. He doesn't have enough units to adequately hold onto Munich if someone were to attack it, particularly England or France from the west. He is going to have to keep growing, either through the rest of Italy or through Turkey, both of which are going to be quite difficult, so he has quite a road ahead of him. He is going to need at least four or five (hopefully more) phases of effective moves and diplomacy to turn this into a solo bid, but it has the makings and it shows the kind of aggression that he is going to need to get close to 18 before someone else does.

Germany- you should always keep fighting and finish the game, especially when you are still on 3 centers including 2 home centers and two powers near you are fighting. You could have easily ended this year on 2 centers with Austria focused on Italy and France and England needing you against the other. The way you've acted here is shameful. Maybe diplomacy isn't the game for you.

France, you should have been able to convince Germany to help you into Belgium this past year especially if he is rage quitting. Going to West Med last turn was pretty cray. It was abundantly clear that you and England were going to need to fight, you wanted to get the jump on him.

England, the weakness of the stab is becoming clear. Your progress is stalled and you pretty clearly have a worse position than Russia or Austria now. A small thing to point out about your moves this turn: they unnecessarily give up NAO which makes you lose contain. Basically the goal in attacking France is building up to have 3 units on MAO. Going to Iri and Wales is slow toward that goal. Now you have to go Wales to Liverpool to NAO to MAO for 4 total moves to achieve it, and in the process you France has a unit behind your lines. If you had gone to NAO and Wales instead, if France goes NAO you just go to NAO and Irish next turn, get one, get the other, then take MAO for 4 moves without a leak. If he goes Irish, even better, support into Irish next turn then take MAO in 3 moves. It's not a big deal, but things like this matter.

This turn you have a really really important move that will go a long way in determining whether you still have a good chance of soloing or not. Think carefully. Also, STOP BUILDING FLEETS. Just stop.

France- That move to West Med was brutal, but you know that now. The fight with England was literally inevitable, you needed to push your advantage. Instead, you gave England a jump on EC and now you basically just have to hold on and wait to get bailed out by Russia.

Austria/Russia/Italy- The predicted A/R stab came through. Italy, you need to think about why you thought it wasn't going to happen despite all evidence, and why you were willing to facilitate it (as discussed above). A/R, remember what you told Italy, as it's an effective way to completely snow someone apparently.

Also, Austria, bo is wrong. Now is not the time *at all* to be thinking about attacking Russia. Get the A/R rolling and try to count to 18.

I didn't say do it now, I said think about when to do it. I looked ahead a solid two years. Did you even read what I said?

Bumpity bump

Return of the Bump.

Return of the Bump - Extended Edition

Bumping III: The Silence of the Forum.

I really think Moscow should have gone to StP here.

Thanks ATC. I was really not looking forward to bumping for the 5th time in a row.

Maybe as an incentive to post: I'll +1 anyone who comments on this game. I could even get the other players to join in +1'ing as well. All those +1s could be yours.