Thanks Skittles. I will also give my EOG.
First, I hate Russia. The best advice I ever got is to play it as a three center country. Pick North (stp, mos, war) or South (mos, sev, war), and play those centers as if they were a stand alone country, without trying to defend the outlier too much to detract from other efforts. I pass that along here in case other people found it helpful.
01: I picked south. I was happy I did because Germany opened to Denmark, suggesting a sweden block, and England opened to do the traditional stp 02 siege. Not to mention Austria's attack on Italy(?). Holding Gal in the fall with an open Austria, I thought it was worth a shot, and decided to go for Bud. With Germany in Den in the spring, I thought he would block sweden, so I thought I might try to invite England to look south rather than at STP. Fail.
02: With a no bounce black sea fall and fleet smyrna, I thought we were good for a jugger alliance. I give up stp per the north/south plan above, and build armies accordingly. I order support for turkey to serbia, but he takes me totally by surprise with his attack. I assume I am losing sev because England failed to bounce me in stp as planned. I decide to try to take over Austria and just go for a survive.
03: Pure survival mode. Get Austria, block further advances. Not much insight here. The German advance on England was quite welcome. Was worried about a convoy to Livonia or the like. Austria has never defended Trieste, so I try that route. Surprised it worked since it seemed clear that Italy would take Venice back that year. Also thankful England never established more than beachhead while I was trying to secure my northern borders.
04: Thank you Italy. Your support was both hoped for and a large part of why I survived the game. By the fall, it was looking more and more like I would have to utilize Austria as a base, so gave up on trying to give Sev back to try to make myself more secure in my borrowed country. Plus, with turkey taking Ser, it was clear that Austria would have to try for trieste, which looked to be unsupported, so I figured I could waltz to bud and hope for support in trieste.
05: I know Italy with its new found strength will want Trieste, so the best I can do is harass the turk since Austria isnt a threat any more. Serbia cant be supported if I cut it, so I do that. Lots of luck guessing how and where Turkey is attacking from moscow. If he had attacked from sev and bounced me with black sea, I am again paralyzed.
The rest seems fairly self explanatory flips of the coin. Towards the end, I figured Italy had to ally with me since I was literally the only country left with enough landpower to delay turkey. There were so many fleet builds that game that I was quite surprised to find a no army italy, a few army germany, and a several fleet france. If Turkey hadnt been such a constant threat (or if the game had continued a couple moves and we reached an uneasy truce), there was serious potential for me to walk in behind the german lines. I just needed one more build, but couldnt get my centers empty due to the Turk.